The Munk Debates Podcast - Friday Focus: Israel's spectacular strike on Iran

Episode Date: June 13, 2025

Friday Focus provides listeners with a focused, half-hour masterclass on the big issues, events and trends driving the news and current events. The show features Janice Gross Stein, the founding director of the Munk School of Global Affairs and bestselling author, in conversation with Rudyard Griffiths, Chair and moderator of the Munk Debates. Rudyard and Janice start the show with Israel's spectacular strike on Iran that targeted ballistic missiles, nuclear sites, and top military leaders. Janice argues that while this was a successful attack it is far from a devastating blow, and Iran still has the means to retaliate. In the second half of the show Rudyard and Janice discuss what this means for global stability and the future of warfare. The US is no longer willing to play the world's policeman and regional powers are freer to do what they want. The attack also demonstrated the destabilizing effects of cheap technology, as Israel was able to decapitate the regime's senior leadership with drones lying in wait from inside Iran. And finally, will the Iranian people - the majority of which do not support the regime - seize on this rare moment to rise up against a weakened and brutal theocracy and forge a new path forward? To support the Friday Focus podcast consider becoming a donor to the Munk Debates for as little as $25 annually, or $.50 per episode. Canadian donors receive a charitable tax receipt. This podcast is a project of the Munk Debates, a Canadian charitable organization dedicated to fostering civil and substantive public dialogue. More information at www.munkdebates.com.Become a Munk Donor ($50 annually) to get 72-hour advanced access to the full length editions of Friday Focus and Munk Dialogues. Go to www.munkdebates.com to sign up. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The following is a complimentary excerpt of this week's edition of the Friday Focus podcast by The Monk Debates. To access full-length editions of each and every episode, along with all kinds of great additional benefits and perks, become a donor to the Monk debates. You can do that for as little as $25 a year, and you'll receive each and every year 50 Friday Focus episodes at full length. It's all available right now on our website. in just a few simple clicks. Triple W. The Monk Debates.com. Look for the Friday Focus option in our navigation bar, the top right of the website. Make your donation, and we will send you each and every Friday a link to listen to the

full-length edition of this program. Thanks in advance for your generous contribution. Welcome to the Friday Focus podcast for the 13th of Friday, 2025. I'm Rudyard Griffiths in studio. joining me remotely is Janice Gross Stein, the founding director of the Mug School of Global Affairs. Well, Janice, it's happened. I think you and I anticipated that this was probably the likely result that Israel simply could not or would not wait for negotiations to continue to some type of conclusion between the United States and Iran over its nuclear program. Israel and Iran are now at war.

My question for you off the top is what are you anticipating in terms of this conflict? Is this something we should be thinking about as unfolding over a matter of days, a matter of weeks, a matter of months, or even a matter of years? In the big strategic picture, Rudyard, this is one episode in a much long. longer conflict that will continue for a long time. I think it's important for everyone. I understand this was a very successful attack, but far, far from a devastating blow. So even if we look at this in the short term,

this is round one. Iran will definitely retaliate. It will likely wait because waiting serves its purpose. says it imposes costs on Israel as its population. Frankly, underground, the cities are deserted. And it has weighed the two prior times, once as long as two weeks. So, and it has, and I think this is really important for people that understand.

It has thousands of ballistic missiles still in stockpiles. Yes, it's senior command. was decapitated. And obviously, the Iranians were prepared for this. Their replacements have already been named right here. So this is not a one-shot evening. Israel seems to have very quickly established, you know, dominance over Iranian skies.

There are reports as we record this morning, Janice, that Israeli air strikes are ongoing. and dozens of Iranian missile systems have been and are being destroyed. How does Iran fight a war against Israel when they have lost control of their airspace and in a sense are wide open to over 150 advanced tactical fighters in Israel's Air Force supported by aerial refueling, supported by high-tech guided munitions. I mean, to what extent can Iran actually wage a war at this point, given Israel's seeming dominance of the battle space?

I mean, you're making a crucial point there. We're on lost control of its airspace last October. If you think back to the second round, that's when Israel's. took out the Soviet air defense systems, the anti-missile batteries that are so crucial in air defense, not Soviet Russian, rather. And Russia does not have enough. It is using them in its own war against Ukraine. It doesn't have enough to replace them.

So there's a window here, and this explains the timing. There was intelligence chatter that Russia was about to supply. additional batteries that would have closed this window of open skies. This is a, you know, this was a strategic decision made by one of the commanders that was killed in this attack. He recognized that investing in a strategic air force, they would never be able to compete with Israel, and I think that's in fact accurate until they invested heavily in ballistic missiles and drones, which are, in fact, if you're using them against a small, densely populated

country, those are very effective weapons. Israel's strategy right now take out as many of those ballistic missiles that they can find on the ground now before they're launched. Will they find everything? No, they will not. How does one explain? The seeming utter incompetence of the Iranian high command to have in the first few hours of this war, the chief of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard killed, the head of the military killed, the head of the missile force killed, top Iranian nuclear scientists eliminated. Would this not suggest, Janice, again, that this is a regime. woefully unprepared for this war, unable to imagine the capabilities and capacity of Israel to bring,

you know, targeted force to bear on not just infrastructure, military infrastructure, but the command and control structure, which does seem yet as to be awfully similar to the playbook that Israel used successfully against Hezbollah. Hezbollah was thought to be this unstoppable force, this overwhelming threat to Israel. And in a matter of a few weeks, not only was each and every one of its senior command staff eliminated, but the missile threat in the many thousands of ground-based missiles were also eliminated. So why should one think that Iran is going to have any better prospects than Hezbollah in the days and weeks to come? So let's distinguish Roger between these two attacks. You're absolutely right.

That the very top leadership, both of the Republican guards and of the Iranian army were killed in the first strike. And everybody knew this attack was coming. It was telegraphed to everybody because the United States, in a sense, gave it away when they evacuated those dependents. That's a flashing red light. You know, I was in Ottawa yesterday. White spread expectations from everybody that an attack was imminent within a matter of hours. So how were these senior people at home? they should have been at bases underground anywhere.

But that I think, of course that's correct, but it misses the bigger point. They were replaced within a matter of hours. There was an alternative command structure already in place. So they're prepared for these target assassinations. Their command structure is functioning and it is not difficult for the command structure to communicate one with the other. Very, very different situation.

The attack against Hezbollah. Those beepers took out thousands of officers and commanders who used those beapers. There was no secure way for Hezbollah to communicate in their own structure. They had to use couriers. So I think it's important that we understand the difference here. The Iranian command structure is fully functioning this morning. Unlike Hesbollah. But Janice, we've only seen a meager drone attack, less than 100 drones, easily shot down and defended by Israeli forces.

I mean, again, I just go back to a debate that you and I have had on this show over the last few years about whether, what is Iran? Is Iran this formidable military force that often we seem to allow to threaten the region and intimidate the West in negotiations around its nuclear program, which unfortunately. have led to this situation? Or is this regime a paper tiger? Is this a regime that has been devastated by over a decade of heavy sanctions that is run by a kleptocracy, that is run by a regime that is serially unpopular with its own population? And which seems, at least, in the opening hours, again, of this war to be utterly incompetent in its ability to defend itself and initially, at least, to project any kind of force or retaliatory strike. So I don't know, Janice, I'm wondering this morning if we haven't, in a sense,

overestimated Iran based, again, on we have to acknowledge a remarkably successful first 18 hours or so of this Israeli offensive. You know, that's a fair proposition, Rudyard, and it's going to be tested, but it's not going to be tested in the first 40s. hours. It will be tested over the next several weeks. For this argument to be correct, the Iranians would have to be unable to use any part of their ballistic missiles and missiles that they've invested in so heavily. There's no reason to suggest that is, in fact, the case. Those missiles are dispersed throughout the country. We don't have any evidence, whether

based on least 18 hours, that there's almost no capacity left to fire those. And they can, you know, if you fire at one blow, three to 400 ballistic missiles, you can overwhelm the air defenses of even a capable Israel, number one. Secondly, look where their strikes were last night. They were against the senior command, virtually all replaced, not the nuclear scientists, but virtually everybody replaced.

Two, only one strike against Natanz, which has the most advanced centrifuges, and they are above ground. Not attempt at all against Fartow, where the nuclear enrichment processes are buried half a mile down. It is not correct to say the nuclear infrastructure in Iran has been mortally damaged. It's way too early to make that claim.

So where I differ is, I think, and Israel is in fact saying this, this is the opening round. There was a long way to go, and it is not for no reason that the government of Israel is saying to its population, stay in shelters, has closed the country, close the airspace, and closed all schools. They are expecting further retaliation. This is not over. It's not over, but I would think the opening round here goes to Israel in a decisive way that, again, mirrors some of its very successful tactics and strategies vis-a-vis Hezbollah and, frankly, the other Iranian proxies in the region. Let's say goodbye to our complimentary listeners. We'll come back on the other side to talk some bigger picture about what this all means. What does this emergence now of another war on top of the war in Ukraine, on top of the war in Gaza,

mean what are we seeing today in international relations that explains this explosion of conflict around the world? We'll have that for our monk donors right after this short break. If you're not a monk donor, you can become one for as little as $25 a year. You get each and every edition of Friday Focus on Fridays at full length, along with live streaming privileges for all of our main stage debate. So grab your monk donor membership right now for $25 at triple w monk debates.com. Thanks for listening to this excerpt of the Friday Focus podcast. To get full-length editions of each and every episode of this program, simply go to our website, www. The Monk Debates.com. Click on the Friday Focus tab in our navigation on the top right of the site.

Make a donation as little as $25 a year or 50 cents an episode. It will send you not only the full-length editions of each and every Friday Focus podcast, but all kinds of special offers, perks, access to events, and additional content. Again, you can do that right now by becoming a donor to the Monk Debates at Triple W. Monk Debates, MUNK, DebateswithanS.com.