The Munk Debates Podcast - Friday Focus: Tanks to Ukraine – Kids Today

Episode Date: January 27, 2023

Friday Focus provides listeners with a focused, half-hour masterclass on the big issues, events and trends driving the news and current events. The show features Janice Gross Stein, the founding director of the Munk School of Global Affairs and bestselling author, in conversation with Rudyard Griffiths, Chair and moderator of the Munk Debates.  The following is a sample of the Munk Debates’ weekly current affairs podcast, Friday Focus.   On this week’s edition of the Friday Focus podcast, Janice and Rudyard start the program with a catch-up on an action-packed week of news on the Ukraine War. Heavy tanks are now on their way to Kiev. Could this be a turning point in the war? The second half of the show features a discussion about kids and how the trend of programming children’s schedules down to the hour is impacting young people.   To access full-length editions of the Friday Focus podcast, consider becoming a donor to the Munk Debates for as little as $25 annually, or $.50 per episode. Canadian donors receive a charitable tax receipt. This podcast is a project of the Munk Debates, a Canadian charitable organization dedicated to fostering civil and substantive public dialogue. More information at www.munkdebates.com.Become a Munk Donor ($50 annually) to get 72-hour advanced access to the full length editions of Friday Focus and Munk Dialogues. Go to www.munkdebates.com to sign up. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The following is a complimentary excerpt of this week's edition of the Friday Focus podcast by The Monk Debates. To access full-length editions of each and every episode, along with all kinds of great additional benefits and perks, become a donor to the Monk debates. You can do that for as little as $25 a year, and you'll receive each and every year 50 Friday Focus episodes at full length. It's all available right now on our website. in just a few simple clicks. Triple W. The Monk Debates.com. Look for the Friday Focus option in our navigation bar, the top right of the website.

Make your donation, and we will send you each and every Friday a link to listen to the full-length edition of this program. Thanks in advance for your generous contribution. Hello, Monk listeners. Rudyard Griffiths here, the host and moderator Friday Focus. Welcome to this, our regular weekly program, digging into the big issues and ideas. in the news, hopefully leaving you with some new analysis and insights on each and every program. We are fortunate to host Janice Gross Stein, the founding director, the Monk School of Global Affairs,

an internationally renowned scholar and author. Janice, how are you this Friday? I actually have a miserable cold. So I hope our listeners will excuse that. The nasal sounding voice here. No, it sounds good. It sounds. Okay.

Faso Fundo, whatever the correct operatic term is. Exactly. But the good news is the virus wave has peaked. Redyard, we are through the worst. So says the chief medical officer about. So take heart. Yeah. Well, let's do two things in this show.

On the first half, I want to unpack just for benefit of listeners, is a crazy week of developments of the Ukraine war from our last show last Friday. We were still supposedly in a bit of a logjam over whether battle tanks were going to Ukraine. Seven days later, we've got Leopard 2s and Abrams, U.S. Abrams, U.S. Abram tanks, supposedly scheduled for deliveries. I want to get your thoughts on how the heck did that all happen in under a week and what does it mean. And then in the back half of the show, I want to pivot. Just get your thoughts about kids today. I'm having some quandaries, some debates as a parent on, I don't know, is the hangover from COVID?

There's something going on out there, Janice, in terms of how kids are interacting with each other and maybe what the implications of it are. So let's deal with that for our donors in the second half of the program. But first to Ukraine, Janice. What a difference a week makes? Sure did. and this is the Olaf Schultz story. The new chancellor of Germany dug in his heels really hard and said, without the United States going first, I am not going second, and I am not going

to authorize the transfer of Leopard tanks. What does that really tell us, Roger? You know, he explained that he was made extremely, extremely uneasy by memories of German tanks crossing through Ukraine toward the then-Soviet Union. That is a live World War II memory. He did not want to evoke that memory again. And that's why he was so reluctant. I'm a little skeptical, frankly.

For me, the U.S. goes first and we will go second argument. I don't really see how the U.S. going first helps him with. that. But what the U.S. going first really does do is once again provides cover for NATO. If the Russians are infuriated and there are attacks or repercussions, the United States is in at the front end of the spear. And that is the story. Wow. You know, I think, Rudyard, about Macron's independent, autonomous, European defense capacity. What a shimmer that is. This is, this shows how badly NATO still needs U.S. leadership. But Janice, help me here because these leopard tanks are coming not just from Germany, but Poland, Estonia, others across NATO in Europe.

My understanding of the Abrams tanks in the United States is one, they're not coming out of existing stockpiles. coming from the manufacturer. Right. Second, they're going without some of their top secret, high performing ornaments and defensive armor. Correct. And third, there is a really complicated set of logistics, especially to support these American tanks,

the special jet fuel, all kinds of mechanics and maintenance, even before you get to figuring out how to use the actual weapon systems on these very sophisticated battle tanks. Some people, some U.S. generals prognosticating, these tanks may not be operational in 2023. Yeah. So what is this? Is this like Kabuki theater that we're watching here?

Yes. Yes, it is. I doubt these tanks. Certainly the backdrop here is the prediction that the bunch of, you know, are going to launch a major offensive in the spring as soon as the mud dries up a little bit. And the Ukrainians are planning an offensive because they certainly want to break out of the stalemate of this trench warfare, which is causing, you know, these are scenes that are World War I, frankly. So both sides want to break out, I would make a big bet that those Abrams tanks will be nowhere near the battlefield. I think your data is probably right.

But even when they get to the battlefield, think about this. You have to have jet fuel around to refill these tanks. So, you know, the Pentagon, things like the Pentagon, they said, these tanks are not the right weapon for this battlefield. This makes no sense. Aren't they also, Janice, that in the United States, the way they're used is part of combined forces. That's right. You have integration with your Air Force, which the Ukraine doesn't really have. You have integration with your artillery.

Ukraine is using a variety of different artillery systems. So some people saying, yeah, these tanks are powerful, but they're not going to be used in a way that they're actually designed to, which is to close that final hundred meters between your forces and the enemies in trench position. And they do a really good job of that if you got all that other stuff going on. But we're not going to have that other stuff going on. So again, nothing burger? Well, this is all about German anxiety and a swaging German anxiety. And it's really, it was passing to watch record because the polls ultimately said, look, whether we get the authorization from Germany, because we're the end user here to transfer those tanks or not, we're doing it. we're seeing a cleavage now between what used to be East Europe and Central European states on the one hand and France and Germany on the other.

It's really open the difference in cultures and the difference in attitudes towards Russia. Really what the Ukrainians need are those leper two tanks. Right. So those are coming in now. Now they will. Just tell me this. So the Abrams could be 2024. The leopards could be this spring.

So how does that help Schultz? Because he's saying, well, we'd only send the tanks if the American tanks are there. But guess what? The leopards are going to be there eight, nine, 12 months before the Abrams show up. So I just. It's kabookee theater. It's kabuki. It's signaling.

It's a message to the German public. There's domestic politics in Germany. It's a message to the German. We are not out there on our own. The United States is with us. They're sending their best tanks when. Well, we don't know exactly. But there is no doubt you're right.

Those leopard tanks are going in way ahead of the Abrams tanks. I don't even know if the Abrams tanks will go at all, frankly. It will depend on where the war is. But 12. And let's just, again, think big picture for a moment. right here. Twelve Abrams tanks are going to make no difference to the battlefield. The number is just too small. You need two things, as you just said, mass, larger numbers, and combined operations with air and artillery. So this makes absolutely no sense. And I was watching Lloyd Austin's face

when that announcement was me. Lloyd Austin is the Secretary of Defense in the United States. a really smart, evil person that I've had that privilege of listening to in person. I just watched his face and I thought, and his head was down. And he knew this made no sense from a military perspective.

But politics always trumps the military. We know that. So let's talk about what it might do from a strategic perspective. You know, in the best of all worlds, I guess, Janice, this is a warning to the Russians. It's basically saying, well, look, the Abrams may not be coming for a year, but it's a sign of our willingness to ensure that the Ukrainian defensive lines

certainly aren't going to collapse this spring and into the summer, that Russia is going to have a harder rather than an easier fight if they ever had an easier fight on their hands. So, hey, it's time to come to the negotiating table. That makes sense to me. But what is the reaction to this new kind of escalation while the Russians are mistling more? Their spokesperson is saying absolutely no grounds for negotiation with the Ukrainians.

The Ukrainians are saying no grounds of negotiation with the Russians. And now the Ukrainians and said, okay, we got the tanks. Wait 24 hours. We want jets. Give us jets because we need the combined forces approach that will complement the tanks. So send us to advance fighter planes this time. So let me just say, which between, you're right,

this could be the theater that proceeds to negotiation. But when I'm hearing, those Russian Ukraine are really dug in. Neither saw, and you know why, Roger, because each one of them is hoping to break through in the spring. And as long as you're hoping to break through on the battlefield, field, you're not interested in going to negotiating to Hable. Let's talk about fighter jets for a moment.

Technically speaking, that's true. You need to do it in a combined operation. Fighter just, as you said, tanks artillery. But there's a big difference between fighter jets and tanks. Tanks roll if they're not fast, really, and what they're designed to do is take on ground forces. So you really have to stretch here. The Russians really have to stretch to say, this weapon is there to cross borders into Russia's territory proper,

leaving aside they annex those four provinces in Ukraine and the state of Crimea, fighter jets. That is a totally different story. Once that pilot gets up in the air, you can't control. And I think that's where the United States would have a lot of difficulty. Don't forget President Biden refused an all-fly zone. Why is that? Because NATO jets would have had to scramble and engage with Russian Air Force.

And he made it very, very clear he does not want that. So there would have to be a dramatic change in Washington in the probability. of the Russian response for any fighter jets to be forthcoming. I'd be really surprised. To wrap up this session, let's talk about Canada. Four tanks going, four leopards. We think they work. There's a whole bunch of our leopards that don't work.

So I'm assuming we're going to give them the ones that do. What does this say, Janice, about the state of Canada's military readiness and our own, I don't know, the extent to which we're a player at all in NATO. So I was surprised. You know, we have 90 leopards. There must be half of them must be in the shop for service. I mean, how else to explain this, right? You have to hold some in reserve.

You have to for unexpected contingencies, but four, right? I mean, couldn't we stretch to 10 or 12 to look like we were a player? I think this, I think we should have done, if we were going to do anything at all, don't do four. Do 12 or nothing, but don't do four. And I can just imagine the kinds of conversations that went on because I've seen these that went on. train the Chief of Defense office and the minister's office, the minister says, I want to stand up with my allies. We are part of this coalition, check. And he says, well, we have four. And I'm sure she can't believe that answer. We're not an arm. We do not have armored capability. But I think

we have let things go so badly. We, you know, we're 10,000 people short. in the army. We haven't recruited to fill those positions. We have four disposable tanks. You probably hearing my voice. Yeah. What I think. I agree with you.

I think it's kind of all or nothing. Yeah. The sending four is a kind of acknowledgement that you are free riding on everybody else, basically. Well, you know, we might say, we might say to rescue this. Let's try hard. The Americans are sending 12 in a year. They're 10 times our size. We have 1,000 Abram tax or something.

Yeah. And we're sending four. So proportionally, yeah. So proportionally, it's not that bad. And ours are going to get there before the Americans. That's the story we can tell ourselves. Okay, well, let's take a break. We went back on the other side with our monk donors.

We're going to talk about kids today and just some things that Janice as a teacher and instructor, some questions. I have as a parent in terms of how children are coming out of COVID. Not the virus, but the social mores maybe in habits that grew up during that period and their effects going forward. So if you're not a monk donor, please consider becoming a donor for as little as $25 a year, 50 cents an episode. You can get each and every Friday focus podcast in glorious high definition audio. So do that right now in our website. Triplew monkdebates.com.

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