The Munk Debates Podcast - Friday Focus: The Middle East on tenterhooks and Putin's military blunder

Episode Date: August 16, 2024

Friday Focus provides listeners with a focused, half-hour masterclass on the big issues, events and trends driving the news and current events. The show features Janice Gross Stein, the founding director of the Munk School of Global Affairs and bestselling author, in conversation with Rudyard Griffiths, Chair and moderator of the Munk Debates. The following is a sample of the Munk Debates’ weekly current affairs podcast, Friday Focus. On this week's Friday Focus, Janice and Rudyard talk about resumed negotiations for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas with pressure on both sides to finally come to an agreement, or risk an all out war in the Middle East. If a deal is reached, Iran will claim victory and use it to gain support throughout the Arab world. Why is Netanyahu going against the advice of his military leaders and the will of Israelis by continuing the war in Gaza? In the second half of the show, Janice and Rudyard discuss Russia scrambling to contain the Ukrainian military incursion into their territory. Janice believes Putin's response is more muted than we would have expected in large part because he is afraid to acknowledge this embarrassing miscalculation. There are two likely scenarios moving forward: either both sides are getting ready for negotiations, or one side will push the other too far, the consequences of which could be catastrophic. To access full-length editions of the Friday Focus podcast consider becoming a donor to the Munk Debates for as little as $25 annually, or $.50 per episode. Canadian donors receive a charitable tax receipt. This podcast is a project of the Munk Debates, a Canadian charitable organization dedicated to fostering civil and substantive public dialogue. More information at www.munkdebates.com.Become a Munk Donor ($50 annually) to get 72-hour advanced access to the full length editions of Friday Focus and Munk Dialogues. Go to www.munkdebates.com to sign up. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

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Make your donation, and we will send you each and every Friday a link to listen to the full-length edition of this program. Thanks in advance for your generous contribution. Hello, Monk listeners. Rudyard Griffiths here, the executive director of the Monk Debates. Welcome to the Friday Focus Edition for the

16th of August, as I am for each and every episode of Friday Focus, joined by Janice Gross Stein, the founding director of the Monk School of Global Affairs. Well, Janice, no let up this last week. We've been having to refresh our browsers every five minutes as we prepare for the recording of today's show, which is taking place on the morning of the 16th of August. And I want to start with what's on everybody's minds, which is the second day of hostage negotiations in Doha. And the extent to which there are early indications, you never know about this, how much of this is positioning or messaging. But the negotiation on day one yesterday, Thursday, was, quote, constructive,

that messaging coming out of the White House. but we are also hearing warnings today from the Qatari Prime Minister urging Iran to exercise, quote, caution, close quote, during the Doha talk. So it sounds like things are very much on edge. Sorting through it all, Janice, what do you think we should be taking away from the last 48 hours? Rudyard, we are hanging by a threat here. This is, I think, one. of the tensest moments that the region has faced since this war started on October the 7th.

And no one could predict the outcome at this point. This next week, I will say, is going to tell us a lot. Here's the good news. These negotiations are taking place under tremendous pressure from everybody on both. Israel and on Hamas. Arab governments are leaning in on Hamas. Biden and his team, as well as the Brits and the French, are leaning on Israel. And it's taking place in the shadow.

And why are they able to exert this kind of pressure? Because everybody understands that if these fail, if a few hours from now, they walk out and say, we have not been able to bridge this, which I don't think they will, by the way, no matter what. But if they say that, that is a green light or the long, waited three weeks now attack on Israel by a combination of Hizbollah and Iran. And that's what the Qatari Prime Minister was talking about with unpredictable consequences. So the stakes are very high. Janice, what do you make of this strange kind of dance of a thousand veils that Iran has put on for the last two and a half, three weeks? So initially, you know, word out that, you know, a strike was forthcoming, that the Revolutionary Guard was incensed by the assassination of Hamas's political leader in Tehran's, one of Tehran's safest locations for international dignitaries.

and vengeance would be theirs. We then have this pivot, this kind of change in the last seven days where Iran turns around and says, no, we're now making the strike conditional on the hostage negotiations. I think people appreciate and understand the extent to which

this is kind of smartly sinister. Maybe that's what I would call it. Positioning Iran somehow as the white knight of all things. who would then be able to take credit for the ceasefire itself, if it is indeed agreed upon by the parties in Israel in particular. And if the ceasefire falls apart, they then have a cloak, a cover, to say that the strike is in retaliation for Israel,

which I'm sure they will blame for the collapse of the talks. This seems kind of too smart by half. At the same time, I want your reaction to it. And your reaction to, in a sense, why Israel hasn't called out this seeming duplicity, this kind of all too convenient reasoning on the part of Iran, who, after all, let's face it, is responsible for this whole crisis in the first place.

Hamas never would have attacked Israel on October 7th if it hadn't been for years of military, logistical, and other armed support from Iran. So, it is a smart strategy. You have to acknowledge that Iran has positioned itself as the party that by exercising pressure and threatening to attack, if there is a breakthrough in these negotiations, Iran is going to claim credit throughout the Arab world. That is a smart strategy. What has stopped Iran? And let me just take an extra minute to say that when we talk about Iranian policy,

we are talking about Republican Guard pressure on comedy. There are divisions in that regime, as we know all too well. but the Republican guards are putting enormous pressure on Khomey here. His regime depends on their support. And I think that's the key point. If they are, if they crack, if they divide, if some of them turn against him, frankly, that regime could fall. It is so fragile in the larger Iranian context, so much domestic opposition to it. What keeps our regime in power is the guards who are humiliated and affronted by that attack.

And busy, by the way, hunting for the mole, the traitors inside who helped the Mossat plant that bomb. So that's the larger context. Why did they delay? It is down to the significant number of forces the U.S. has moved into the region in the last two. half weeks. It is a really significant display of force announcing a submarine warships, loaded with missiles. I think that is what is giving Iran positive. It does not want a military confrontation for the United States. Now, Biden's walked the line here. He's saying to Israelis, we will help you defend against an attack, we will not help you if you go on the offensive and attack Iran

in the turn. I think what's giving the people on Mount Chmanyi pause, how much weight do you give to that? And in the heat of battle, as we know, forces get intermingled. It is unpredictable. What will happen here, Roger, from every perspective. I will say it again, if an Iranian missile imposes 100 civilian casualties, 200 civilian casualties, who knows what the threshold is, it'll be impossible to hold back an Israeli counterattack. And then it's all bets are off. For the Iranians who worry, of course, that Israel and the United States have waited for an opportunity to attack and to go after nuclear installations inside Iran.

They've been waiting for a decade from the United States. from Humane's point of view. And he doesn't want to provide that opportunity. This is the highest stakes game that we've seen in this part of the world with huge implications. I know we're not going there right now, but just think what this does,

if shipping lines close, you know, the consequences for the global economy other than the huge strategic dangers that exposes to everybody. Yeah, or the price of oil. which has an immediate effect on everything and everyone in terms of inflation risk. I guess just as we wrap up this block of the show, Janice, I guess what I don't understand is

the extent to which Israel and the United States seem to be letting Iran dictate both terms and pace here. And I guess you can understand a little bit the American administration perspective that they're in the middle of a U.S. election. And, you know, the thought of for American voters of their country being dragged into another war in the Middle East could be deeply unpopular for the incumbent party, the Democrats. I get that. Maybe what I don't fully understand is the extent to which Israel is fond of. following along now to the Iranian script and the Iranian timing. The only argument I can think that one could kind of parse where the Israelis think their interests will be expressed in all this,

is that this ceasefire deal if and when, and let's hope it's reached, in Benjamin Netanyahu's mind and Galant the defense minister's mind, is really a short-term agreement that will last one phase, that will allow for the release of, they're demanding 33 as they should, women, children, and female soldiers, there may not even be that many left.

There are reports that the number maybe as low as 18. And in that context, Israel could restart the war in Gaza and the attempts to eliminate Hamas and find Sinwar as soon as, you know, October. Maybe you're, earlier is that a way to think about this Janice I know these are not positive thoughts but in a sense is each side kind of frankly just playing to its naked kind of self-interest here and beneath and beyond

all these negotiations and all you know the hope and aspirations that we can have some kind of end to this conflict the reality is that this negotiation and any kind of agreement is frankly a can-kicking exercise that may be very short in duration. Let me put a little different spin on this one, Rudyard. Netanyahu's isolated. Galant wants a ceasefire now. The chief of the general staff wants a ceasefire now. The head of the intelligence agencies want a ceasefire.

So Nathaniel stands alone. And moreover, the army, the military chiefs have said the two big issues that are holding it up. There's three, really. One is control of that narrow strip of land right along the border with Egypt, the Philadelphia border. The generals have said openly, I mean, they aren't frankly close to full-scale rebellion against them. They've said openly, we have other technical solutions to this problem. Second big one, Netanyos Dugges Hills on. We've got to screen Palestinians. We need forces on the ground to screen Palestinians that are going back to the north. And Mars and North matter because that's the part of Gaza that is directly opposite these communities

that were attacked on October 7th. It's not going to matter, as they've told him, because you go back to the north and if you need to move weapons, you can move them through the tunnels and those tunnels are still intact. So they are telling him there is no longer any really big military gains that you can get. Get those hostages out. He is dug in, and I hate to say this, Rudyard, it has a lot to do with his own personal interest in not breaking up his coalition. There are political reasons for him doing this rather than military reasons. So it's not even that Iran is setting the agenda, although, as I said, is a really smart strategy. is that the consensus in the broad middle in Israel is,

it is time to stop now. Any additional military advantage is not worth two things. The lives of the remaining hostages, which is the overwhelming consideration. And secondly, risking all regional war with Iran and Hezbollah at this point, when, frankly, Israeli troops are exhausted. This is the longest war they have fought in more than 75 years. He's going against the best military advice that he's getting across the spectrum.

Great analysis, great insights, as always, Janice. Well, let's take a quick pause here. We'll say goodbye to our complimentary monk members and join our valued monk donors, donors, curators, supporters on the other side of this short announcement. back to you in a moment. Thanks for listening to this excerpt of the Friday Focus podcast. To get full-length editions of each and every episode of this program, simply go to our website,

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