The Munk Debates Podcast - Friday Focus: Trump's generous offer to Russia and Canadian leaders fail to address domestic concerns

Episode Date: April 25, 2025

Friday Focus provides listeners with a focused, half-hour masterclass on the big issues, events and trends driving the news and current events. The show features Janice Gross Stein, the founding director of the Munk School of Global Affairs and bestselling author, in conversation with Rudyard Griffiths, Chair and moderator of the Munk Debates. Rudyard and Janice open the show with the Ukraine-Russia ceasefire deal put forward by the Trump administration that would recognize Crimea as a Russian territory, deny NATO membership to Ukraine, and give Moscow control of 20 percent of Ukrainian territory in the Donbas region. This is a huge capitulation to Russia that doesn't provide any security guarantees to Ukraine. So why is Putin dragging his feet in accepting these generous terms? In the second part of the show Rudyard and Janice reflect on the Canadian election campaign which will come to a close on Monday as voters head to the polls. Because so much focus has been paid to the Canada-US relationship, so many other important issues relating to the economy, productivity, immigration and housing have been ignored. Have we overreacted to the Trump threat while failing to address the very real challenges at home? To support the Friday Focus podcast consider becoming a donor to the Munk Debates for as little as $25 annually, or $.50 per episode. Canadian donors receive a charitable tax receipt. This podcast is a project of the Munk Debates, a Canadian charitable organization dedicated to fostering civil and substantive public dialogue. More information at www.munkdebates.com.Become a Munk Donor ($50 annually) to get 72-hour advanced access to the full length editions of Friday Focus and Munk Dialogues. Go to www.munkdebates.com to sign up. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The following is a complimentary excerpt of this week's edition of the Friday Focus podcast by The Monk Debates. To access full-length editions of each and every episode, along with all kinds of great additional benefits and perks, become a donor to the Monk debates. You can do that for as little as $25 a year, and you'll receive each and every year 50 Friday Focus episodes at full length. It's all available right now on our website. in just a few simple clicks. Triple W. The Monk Debates.com. Look for the Friday Focus option in our navigation bar, the top right of the website. Make your donation, and we will send you each and every Friday a link to listen to the

full-length edition of this program. Thanks in advance for your generous contribution. Welcome to the Friday Focus podcast as we head into an election next week in Canada. I'm Rudyard Griffith, the chair of the Monk Debates. I'm joined by Janice Gros Stein, the founding director of the Monk School of Global Affairs. So, Janice, have you voted in the early polls? Are you one of those people that likes to wait until E-Day? I wait until D-Day, and I have to confess, Fredier, there have been times when I waited until six in the evening.

I've been stuck in those long lines. But, boy, there have been a lot of early voters this year. Yeah, there has. Talking to pollsters over the last couple weeks in my other gig as a publisher of the Hub, it seems like the percentage of undecided voters remains high. So we may see some shifts on Election Day. It'll be fascinating to check it all out. And if you are looking for some E-Day coverage, come over to the Hub's YouTube channel

as of 7 p.m. Eastern on Monday, we will be broadcast. live all night with a variety of experts and guests. Hopefully we can get Janice on at some point. You have a deal. You have a deal. Let's do it. There are nothing better than hub parties, I can say to all the listeners. Yeah.

A whole bunch of people to thank who've come on board as donors of the Monk debates this week as we gear up for our big Trump debate at the end of May. It's pretty much sold out. So if you haven't got a ticket, you may be out of law. luck, but please do check your emails. If you're a member, you have been receiving links about how to purchase tickets. But again, we are down to the final few straws there. But a huge number of people to thank here. I'm going to go through as much of the list I can. So bear with me. It's kind of fun. It's so large. So Sean R. Thank you for joining as a curator. And then, wow, the supporters,

Janice, Tom F, William S, Adam P, L. and H. Deborah T. Sherry J. Gregory B. Shana C. James K. Jane K. Sandra. H. Hazib A. John L. Dan B. Michael F. Lindsay B. Francis B. Janet W. Richard M. Policy. Sarah A. I'm almost there. Margaret R. Rajan E. Yohan F. Megan M. Ross T. Joan E. Chris L. Janet M. L. L. L. D. Brian. M. McKenzie L. Adam F. Derek C. Sabrina H. and John A. Not Sir John A, but John A, but John A, to round it out. What a fantastic week. Janice. Donos just pouring onto the platform. That's a record, isn't it? Roger? That is a record for a week. Yeah. I think people are clued into this election. They're clued into the big debate next week. And just, again, greatly appreciate people's support for the civil and substantive dialogue that we try to foster here at the monk debates. Well, Janice, for those of you tuning into the live edition of this show on YouTube, and you're watching this great high-definition video, I want to talk about this guy on the screen over here, Janice.

You saw him, Vladimir Putin. There is a high-stakes negotiation going on right now, Friday, into this weekend as to whether some kind of armistice, cessation of hostilities, I don't know what the heck it is, could maybe will happen? What is your read, this complex game of three-dimensional chess between Russia, the United States, and Ukraine? Roger, let's make one distinction right off the top. There's a big difference between a ceasefire in place, freeze the conflict, freeze the lines. That's the Korean model and recognition of permanent conflict.

request. The thing that I think is going to blow this one up even before it gets out of the gate is the requirement that Ukraine recognize that Crimea is part of Russia. That is the kind of demand that usually comes in a final deal, not in a ceasefire. I was really surprised, just not surprised given the bigger picture. We're going to talk about it in a minute, but surprised to see that as part of a ceasefire. Yeah. So let's talk about what is seemingly being communicated by Trump and the Trump administration as the terms of a cessation of hostilities. It involves, as you said, the recognition of Crimea as a Russian sovereign territory. It recognizes that NATO membership

will never be extended to Ukraine. It recognizes the effectively, the de facto occupation of the Donbass and the invaded territories by Russia. I'm just struggling here, Janice, just think, what does Ukraine get out of this other than an end to the fighting? This seems, I don't know, just overwhelmingly in Russia's interests here, whether they accepted or not, it seems like a huge capitulation. You are right, Roger.

There's almost nothing here for Ukraine. It has to recognize, frankly, military occupation of territories that Russia has conquered. It permanently forswears the opportunity to join NATO. That's not a big surprise. Trump has telegraphed that from day one. And frankly, Rudyard, it never was much of a live option, despite all the rhetoric that has come out of Europe, the United States, even under Biden, never supported that.

But the deal was supposed to be, if you were going to go for the big one, there had to be some security guarantees. That's the missing piece. And that's where you're completely right. Where's that piece of the jigsaw puzzle? Not on the table. And so it is an extraordinarily one-sided deal. And if you're Ukrainian, you say, yep, and to the fighting for how long, without any guarantees whatsoever.

And no NATO support, that doesn't seem like a great gamble. Yeah. And Russia, though, seems to be, again, depending when you're listening to this program, events may have changed. But as of today, Friday, Russia seems to be dragging its feet on. accepting these very generous terms. I don't understand that, Janice. I mean, they're getting Crimea. They're getting the occupation of a large portion of these territories,

all the natural mineral resources and rights. They're getting a pledge on NATO. Why is Vladimir Putin holding out here? I mean, the terms for him to end this war have never been more favorable politically vis-à-vis the United States. And the opportunities the Trump administration is dangling on the other side of a ceasefire. which is normalization of some trade relations, relief on sanctions. I mean, I don't get the Russian game here in the 11th hour.

He's never going to get a better deal than this one, frankly, Rudyard. And look, there are real pressures on Vladimir Putin, not from an opposition inside the Kremlin or anything like that. But his economy is really suffering. There's no analyst of the Russian economy that doesn't say that this year and next are going to be really tough. He can't mobilize more men without paying a really significant domestic political costs. So, wow, it doesn't get, frankly, much better than this. I think he thinks he can, you know, that Ukraine will break.

Because that's the big imponderable from his perspective. You know, Trump says I'm walking away. That's what he said, which is astonishing. I'm walking away. If Zelensky says no, and he's already said no, but what does walking away mean? No more intelligent support of the kind that we now know the United States has been given on targeting.

No more military assistance. what that it's it's so paradoxical pressure if you want Putin to accept the deal don't pull the rug out from Vladimir Solonsky because I'll only encourage Vladimir Putin to do what he does yeah China is just missing from this conversation I presume Janice because of the trade war that Trump has initiated against Beijing. There is no real assistance being lent here by China to pressure Russia to accept these terms. That's a real change. No chance at all.

No chance at all. You know, Shiji Ping right now is involved in his own stare down with Trump. Trump says he's waiting for a call from Shishi Ping. And Shishiping says, no way, I'm not calling you, call me. and there were, I mean, I see a smiling there to, you know, reminds us of games we used to play, frankly, when we were in elementary school. There are back channel conversations going on now to make the, to put enough on the table to make that call happen. But why would Xi Jinping help Trump at this point? Absolutely. And again, who starts up with everybody at the same time?

Right. Trump launched a global trade war. If this weren't in such elegant company, I might use some four-letter words here, but he antagonized everybody at the same time. He would do that. So before we wrap up this section of the show, what's your bet, Janice? Does Putin accept this? Because it just is such a good deal.

The political climate in the United States, there's a clock running there to the midterms, you know, there's 18 months here for Russia to potentially benefit from all kinds of goodies that the Trump administration can afford them in terms of sanctions, relief, and business deals and who knows what else. I think he's going to drag his feet, Richard. He has every incentive to wait out. The trade war is not going well for Donald Trump. He's under pressure.

He's under pressure from markets. He's under pressure from some of the biggest businesses in the United States. It's astonishing what's happened in such a short time. Why give in now? Just don't say yes. Don't say no. Drag it out. And two people will be twisting in the breeze here.

Zelensky is life for death, frankly, for him. But Donald Trump is not in a position. now to put any pressure on Vladimir Putin. I think he's just going to drag it out. And we thought at the scope of the attack that Vladimir Putin launched on Kiev, that's a signal. I'm not going anywhere. Just to squeeze one more question because there's so many factors at play here.

The Europeans are, in a sense, pledging to step in for the United States and provide Ukraine with ornaments and the ability conceivably, Janus, to continue to resist Russian occupation in the absence of American support. But Europe itself is in its own high-stakes trade negotiations with this White House. So to what extent, if Putin, you're right, drags it out, to what extent do you think Europe will be there for Ukraine when it has its own problems with Donald Trump? You know, essentially talking to Europeans, Richard, there's a sober realism. in Europe that Ukraine has been fighting for them, in a sense.

There is not a lot of confidence that if Putin prevails, and this is a capitulation, as you rightly called it, that his appetites will be satisfied in any meaningful way. They may be for a few years. So they will continue to do what they can for Ukraine. But there isn't a single European defense analyst who doesn't acknowledge that replacing what the United States has provided is something. It is a very steep hill to climb. It will take a decade if that. And so there's just ceiling, frankly, on what the Europeans can do.

Not what they want to do, but what they can do. Okay. Well, if you've enjoyed this first half of the show, either in a beautiful video, on YouTube or if you're listening to the free version on our podcast channel here at the Monk Debates, why don't you join all those great supporters who are signing up to support free, open, and civil conversation and debate by becoming a Monk member. You can do that right now on our website, triple W monkdebates.com and we'll send you links to listen to the full-length editions of the Friday Focus podcast, either in on-demand audio or on-demand video.

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