The Munk Debates Podcast - Friday Focus: Two nuclear powers face off and Carney meets with Trump

Episode Date: May 9, 2025

Friday Focus provides listeners with a focused, half-hour masterclass on the big issues, events and trends driving the news and current events. The show features Janice Gross Stein, the founding director of the Munk School of Global Affairs and bestselling author, in conversation with Rudyard Griffiths, Chair and moderator of the Munk Debates. Rudyard and Janice open today's show with the fast developing and worrying situation between India and Pakistan. What started in the long disputed territory of Kashmir has expanded into strikes along the border shared by these two nuclear powers. As Janice argues, when the global policeman (the U.S.) retires from the job local leaders take advantage of the vacuum in leadership. In the second half of the show Rudyard and Janice turn to this week's meeting between Mark Carney and Donald Trump. Both had mixed feelings about the meeting: while it was friendly and relaxed in nature, and we are in a better place than we were when Trudeau was negotiating with Trump, there were no concrete outcomes from this meeting that benefit Canadians. Ultimately, many of our most important sectors are facing a massive slowdown because the Trump administration is not interested in the core products like cars and steel that were once central to the Canada-US relationship. To support the Friday Focus podcast consider becoming a donor to the Munk Debates for as little as $25 annually, or $.50 per episode. Canadian donors receive a charitable tax receipt. This podcast is a project of the Munk Debates, a Canadian charitable organization dedicated to fostering civil and substantive public dialogue. More information at www.munkdebates.com.Become a Munk Donor ($50 annually) to get 72-hour advanced access to the full length editions of Friday Focus and Munk Dialogues. Go to www.munkdebates.com to sign up. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

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Make your donation, and we will send you each and every Friday a link to listen to the full-length edition of this program. Thanks in advance for your generous contribution. Welcome to the Friday Focus podcast for the 9th of May. I'm Roger Griffiths, Chair of the Month Debates. I'm joined by Janice Gross. Stein, the founding director of the Monk School of Global Affairs, coming to us from Mary Old England.

Yes, in London, Rudyard, two talk defense. Excellent. Well, we're going to have to spend a bit of time on that on the show. But let me begin by thanking a number of donors who've come on to support the Monk debates in its efforts to bring civility and substance to the public square. It's a work of a lifetime, but a big thank you to Evan S. for becoming a curator and a whole bunch of supporters this week, Janice. Sam D.S. Lee, Braun, E. James M., Deborah M., Carlos J. and Wesley F.

Thank you all for your generous support. Janice, we have to start the show with the seemingly fast developing and risky situation that's unfolding along the line of control between India and Pakistan. Earlier in the week, this was focused on Kashmir, the long disputed territory between the two groups that was partitioned by the war of partition between India and Pakistan. But now it is spread to the entire shared border of these two Asian nations with seemingly reports of strikes now ongoing inside both countries.

well away from what are, again, the typical places where Indian and Pakistani troops have occasionally, over the last decade or so, exchanged artillery fire and had other kind of, yeah, less severe fisticuffs. What do you make of this, Janice? This seems to have come out of nowhere and it seems to be accelerating fast. It is a very dangerous situation, Redyard. There have been incidents between India and Pakistan before, as recently. as 2016, 2019. But this is, frankly, worse.

Why is that? First of all, there is no active Secretary of State from Washington getting on the phone and talking these two nuclear-powered countries down, as they have. And that's a big one. Secondly, both India and Pakistan have changed since 2019. Pakistan, the military, has become increasingly unpopular since they dismissed the prime minister before. This one, Imran Khan and jailed him. There is a new chief of the defense staff, chief of the defense staff, Mooneer.

And many speculate that he sees this as a way to improve the standing of the military in Pakistan. Tough for him to back down. Modi has, of course, run on a Hindu nationalist platform. You know, when they last came to minor blows, India's economy was five times the size of Pakistan's. Now it's 10. Hard for Modi as well to back down. Probably if you talk to both of them, they would like an off-rap, but there's no ladder in sight record. What we're also seeing, I think that it's as concerning is that those past conflicts or border episodes often dealt with, you know, artillery duels and other other kind of static conflict related to, you know, specific incidents, specific, places. We're now hearing about the use of drones, fighter jets, ballistic missiles. India seems to have struck deeper into Pakistan, Lahore, and other parts of the Punjab, which is, after all,

the kind of stomping ground, the home ground of the Pakistani military. It's ethnically where their elites come from. why the escalation here. Obviously, there was an initial terrorist attack that occurred in Kashmir, tragically killing two dozen or so tourists. But the Indian response, the initial foray and now seemingly overnight last night,

a counterattack by Pakistan, again, using drones and ballistic missiles, seems to suggest that both protagonists are ramping this up from what you know, might in the past have been, yes, dealt with in some way. But surely, Janice, not on the scale and the intensity that we've seen over the last 72 hours. I think that's exactly right, Roger. You know, why are they doing it?

Partly because the kind of military technology we have now, they can't, right? You can send drones over the border and terrorize the civilian population. we've seen a proliferation of missiles. And I think we're going to see a lot more of this, Roger, and that's frankly worrying. What's especially dangerous here is that both these powers are nuclear powers. And, you know, we talked last week. There is no record of nuclear powers going up the ladder past a certain point because it's just too dangerous. This has been a very rapid period of escalation way beyond the direct conflict zone, as you rightly said.

You know, the last time this happened budget in 2019, Pakistan made claims that India had lost five jet fighters. India didn't challenge the claim. It apparently was not true. one of the things that I'm watching for, which one of them is going to allow one of these claims to go unchallenged? In other words, they have to find a way each of them to allow each one of them to claim a win that they have defended either in the Pakistani cases. Munir said, you know, Pakistan was born as the Muslim homeland out of India. That's a strong message. And Modi echoes the same kind of sentiments on behalf of the Hindu majority. You know, Kashmir has been a flashpoint ever since 1947.

It never goes away, and it can always arouse the passions between these two countries. In the last 24 hours, J.D. Vance, the vice president of the United States has come out and basically said that the U.S. administration is not intervening and that it's up to these two powers to kind of effectively sort out their differences together. What do you make of that? Why is the United States being seemingly so purposely hands off here? Is this, I don't know, if you want to try to imply some reason to this or. intent? Is it because of a desire to, I don't know, support India possibly, to pull India out of Russia's orbit? Much of India's military equipment is Russian made. There's been a long, obviously, history between India and Soviet Russia. Is there something afoot here where the Americans feel that the Indians is the larger power, as you said, economically, and also militarily, though, have the upper hand in this conflict? And America is an a sense without obviously putting its hand on the scales by not intervening. They're effectively

supporting India. You know, Roger, I wish there was that much strategic calculation in Washington, frankly. I doubt that that's the fact, although India has moved over the last several years, much closer to the United States. That having been said, Jay Vance, in the administration, right now. There is almost an internal war going on between three groups of people that surround Donald Trump. They're the old interventionists who believe that the United States should get on the phone. The United States has global responsibilities. It's a global power. There are, in effect, the America firsters, and this is just not a very direct. You know, these are the ones who believe China is the issue.

Let's not get distracted by conflict all over the world. The United States has one strategic priority. That's China. And that's in a way that Peter Navarro's and people like that. And then there are those who are frankly isolationists. We are not the world's policemen. We are not going to solve the world problems. Well, what we're seeing is what happens when the United States,

It says, MIA missing in action. The British, I am in London right now, the British did get on the phone. They are the old imperial power in this part of the world. To try to talk down, these two governments, obviously, very limited success. Rudyard and the Russians have no interest in doing it, frankly. Just finally in this section,

before we say goodbye to our complimentary listeners and viewers and join our donors on the other side of a short break. we're now seeing Janice situation where the government of Benjamin Netanyahu has issued a large-scale troop call-up for major operation, occupation of Gaza. We have really no substantive progress on ending the war in Ukraine. We now have what seems to be the beginnings of, you know, a war on the subcontinent between Pakistan and India. Why is this all happening now? I know that's a very broad question,

but it seems it can't just be coincidence that suddenly with the election of Trump last November, we're now seeing previous conflicts reintensify or fail to resolve and now new conflict, a new important conflict emerging. Well, the first reason, Roger, these are tough conflicts to resolve. the India-Pakistan one, the Israel-Palestine one, we've just said they've been around for 75 years.

And it depends when you want to start the historical calendar rolling. They're tough. They are deeply embedded. So Donald Trump's facile comments, frankly, oh, we're going to get a ceasefire in Ukraine within 24 hours of my becoming president. We're going to ceasefire in Gaza. They did. It lasted six weeks. And that's it. It is much harder.

That's why we have experienced professional diplomats who do this kind of heavy lifting. He has almost nothing to show for this. But your bigger point, I think, is also important. It isn't just a coincidence. When the global policeman retires from the job, there's a vacuum. And local powers are. are all too willing to cease the opportunity to take advantage of the moment when there is simply no cop on the beat whatsoever. This is one of these moments. Sure, feels like it. Well, let's take a

quick break. We're going to say goodbye to our complimentary listeners and viewers. If you want to enjoy the back half of Friday Focus, please become a donor. You can do that for as little as $25 a year. 50 cents a week. We will send you a link immediately to listen to the back half of the show on your favorite podcast app and you'll receive emails in subsequent weeks where you can get the full length video versions of each and every episode of Friday Focus. So appreciate that support and I'll say bye-bye and then hello to our donors and subscribers. Thanks for listening to this excerpt of the Friday Focus podcast to get full-length editions of each and every episode. of this program. Simply go to our website,

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