The Munk Debates Podcast - Friday Focus: Ukraine War Anniversary - Nigeria Election - Israel's Democracy

Episode Date: February 24, 2023

Friday Focus provides listeners with a focused, half-hour masterclass on the big issues, events and trends driving the news and current events. The show features Janice Gross Stein, the founding director of the Munk School of Global Affairs and bestselling author, in conversation with Rudyard Griffiths, Chair and moderator of the Munk Debates.  The following is a sample of the Munk Debates’ weekly current affairs podcast, Friday Focus.   On this week’s edition of the Friday Focus podcast, Janice and Rudyard start the show with a discussion of what we got wrong in terms of how the Ukraine War would unfold. Next, the program takes up this weekend’s Nigerian elections. Is the vote a de facto ballot on the future of Africa? Friday Focus wraps up with a discussion of the debate over reforming Israel’s top court. What is going on in the Middle East’s only democracy, and what does it mean for the future of the state of Israel? To access full-length editions of the Friday Focus podcast, consider becoming a donor to the Munk Debates for as little as $25 annually, or $.50 per episode. Canadian donors receive a charitable tax receipt. This podcast is a project of the Munk Debates, a Canadian charitable organization dedicated to fostering civil and substantive public dialogue. More information at www.munkdebates.com.Become a Munk Donor ($50 annually) to get 72-hour advanced access to the full length editions of Friday Focus and Munk Dialogues. Go to www.munkdebates.com to sign up. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The following is a complimentary excerpt of this week's edition of the Friday Focus podcast by the Monk Debates. To access full-length editions of each and every episode, along with all kinds of great additional benefits and perks, become a donor to the Monk Debates. You can do that for as little as $25 a year, and you'll receive each and every year 50 Friday Focus episodes at full length. It's all available right now on our website in just a... few simple clicks. Triple W. The Monk Debates.com. Look for the Friday focus option in our navigation bar, the top right of the website. Make your donation and we will send you each and every Friday a link to listen to the full-length edition of this program. Thanks in advance for your generous contribution. Hello, Monk listeners. Rodier Griffiths here, your hosted moderator.

Welcome to this, the regular Friday roundtable, each and every week here on Friday, We provide you with some new analysis and insights on the week that was, some intelligence on the big events coming up in the news that we think you might benefit from paying attention to. We do this each and every Friday with Janice Gross Stein, the founding director, the Monk School of Global Affairs, an internationally round author and scholar. Janice, a lot going on this week. We're going to try to get three topics on the show. And the first we have to start with is the anniversary, the one-year anniversary of the Ukraine war. And let's engage in a little bit of introspection. What did you either think or feel where this conflict was going to go a year ago versus where it's at now? because I don't want to

toot your horn for you because I know but I kind of have to because I know you won't do it but you largely predicted months ago where we've ended up now which is a protracted conflict with additional offenses on either side coming up and really no end, no clear end in sight.

I did think that, Roger, despite the absolutely amazing, amazing performance of the Ukrainian army. But size still matters. And Russia has just an enormous advantage in size. If you think about this, Richard, as many Ukrainian soldiers more or less have been killed and wounded as Russian soldiers. But look at this discrepancy in the size of the size of the war. country and the pool of manpower that Putin can draw on. He has the capacity to wait and to throw

more at it and throw more at it. And what we're seeing is this bloody stalemate on the battlefield. You know, there was an expected Russian offensive. What that offensive really is is just throwing waves of untrained Russian soldiers and the casualties that the Russians are taking are just unbelievable. But there's another wave behind them. And so that's why we are where we are. Tell you one thing. Many of them are conscripts. I mean, that's right. Prisoners. Yeah. The thing, Janice, I, you know, probably underestimated was the resiliency of Putin's regime along a whole series of acts. And I think we have to be honest about this. Their economy has done far better than anyone thought.

Their oil sales have remained consistent. Thank you to India, China, and other countries that have continued to purchase oil. And you can look at the big propaganda rally that Putin did this week with 100,000 people plus in a stadium. But listening to the BBC and other news sources, you do have a sense that, Russian nationalism has been effectively stoked. And this war, to a broader extent, again, than maybe I thought or we'd certainly hoped, is a popular war in Russia. There are elements of dissent.

Yes, there are many Russian men and families that have left Russia fleeing the threat of conscription, but there is also a significant segment of the population that is behind this war. And Putin through this war has been able to, in the space of 12 short months, reshape and refashion Russia in I think ways that he always wanted to. He wanted a more, you know, ethnically nationalistic regime that, you know,

just crushed any dissent and motivated and refashioned Russia as a nation, as a civilization, as he likes to call it, in a civilizational struggle for him. his existence. So Putin has gotten a lot out of this last year, unfortunately, domestically, most certainly on the battlefield, again, a lot of failure and setback, but it doesn't seem to be impacting the Russian domestic seat. In fact, I think that's surprisingly gone much more in Putin's favor than anyone would have predicted. You know, I agree with you, Roger. Let me just report, one, to me, mind-blowing statistic that I read yesterday, the Russian economy is expected

to grow faster this coming year than the British economy. Wow. Wow, right? If you think back a year ago to the discussion of sanctions that we had, you know, our own government absolutely convinced that sanctions would decimate the Russian economy. I think there are really important truths that come out of this. First of all, as you said, it is not that difficult to evade sanctions. Globalization is alive and well, rather, in gray markets. Everything is being sold and re-traded through different supply chains, And that's what is enabling the Russian economy to keep going.

So Turkey, India, China, but brokers, you know, in Turkmenistan and the Caucasus, who are relabling, if you look at all the events, technology and the computer chips that are sanctioned prints, they're all coming into Russia. They're just being repackaged and sold through third parties. this wildly naive optimism that sanctions was going to bring the Russian economy to its knees, I think is one big lesson for everybody to take away from this year. That was never in the cards. Let's just in the rainy moments this segment talk about China, because it's been one of the things we've wondered about over the last year. And there was obviously a very full court press by the Biden administration to push

China to the sidelines of this war, which has largely been effective, seemingly, over at least the first portion of this war. This week now, we're having the Biden administration coming out, seeming to warn China, threatening to release intelligence, showing that maybe Chinese weapons firms, commercial drone manufacturers in China are providing the Russian military with equipment. maybe some inference here that the Chinese right hand, the diplomatic corps doesn't really know what the left hand, the Chinese army is doing or others. Maybe there's some confusion. But what is your take on this? Because I think it's the big question about where this war goes from here.

And I worry, Janice, that if we see China joining Russia in a more implicit way, let's say by the provisioning of what the Chinese are calling defensive weapons, but it could be a lot of. more than that, frankly. This war starts to me look at not just a tragic, horrible conflict in the heart of Eastern Europe, it starts to look like a struggle between, you know, two sets of powers. On one side, the West that wants to maintain American global hegemony and the liberal international order. And on the other side, Russia, China, maybe India in the background, Brazil, and others who say, no, we're sick of that American-led order. We want a multipolar order where power, their view, would be shared more equitably between the different populations of the world.

And let's face it, there is a point here that roughly 80% of the world's population does live outside of the United States, Europe, and Canada. Yep. Boy, watching China is so critical right now. Roger, you put your thumb on the scale in exactly the right place. Wang Yi was in Moscow this week. And it's clear that the Chinese share with Russia one key goal to reduce American influence and sway in the global system.

And again and again, you get this language that they do not want to be told what to do. They do not want to be bullied by the United States. When Blinken, Secretary of State, Blinken warned the Chinese against supplying weapons. Outcame this angry retort. We do not take orders from anyone. And that's where Russia and China are joined up. That having been said, Chinese economy is in restart mode and it is a sputtering restart. They are overwhelmingly integrated into the global economy in ways that Russia never really was.

They have an enormous amount to lose, Roger. The goal for the United States has to be now, keep China sitting on the fence. find ways to engage with China. Don't let yourself get distracted by spy balloons, right? There is a bigger picture. I can just imagine what Henry Kissinger, who you had as a monk debater, would say, frankly, he would be all, I mean, he would have one big grand strategy here,

keep Russia and China from tightening their alliance. Everything else pales in comparison for the United States right now. You have to hope that the Biden team is focused on that. Let me just add one thing right here. Public opinion in the United States and in Canada is now so hostile to China that it's very hard in our own country. we have a really active concern about election interference as you know by China. But we have to understand that there are larger, bigger issues here.

And we are at an inflection point in the global order. And frankly, the costs of allowing any tightening of the alliance between Russia and China, if that happens, you are right, that will play generation. to come, frankly. Right. Okay, let's say goodbye to our complimentary monk members now. We'll reconvene on the other side of this break with our monk donors. And thank you again, monk donors for your generous contributions to Friday Focus.

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