The Munk Debates Podcast - Munk Dialogue with Janice Gross Stein: $300 Billion for Iran and and a huge leap of faith

Episode Date: June 17, 2026

Janice and Rudyard unpack the latest details of the emerging memorandum of understanding between Iran and Israel, examining its proposed $300 billion financing package and the sweeping rollback of sanctions on Iran's oil and financial sectors. They question the agreement's lack of concrete timelines and verification mechanisms—particularly around nuclear inspections—and argue that looming energy pressures helped drive both sides to the negotiating table. The deal, just 14 points long, is light on details and leaves much open to interpretation, most notably regarding the war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. How is it being received by Iran's hardliners? And will the perception in the U.S. that it represents a major capitulation by Trump affect how the GOP fares in November's midterm elections?Become a Munk Donor ($50 annually) to get 72-hour advanced access to the full length editions of Friday Focus and Munk Dialogues. Go to www.munkdebates.com to sign up. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wow, you have to be an optimist to think we're going to get past the next several months and move forward on the nuclear agreement so that virtually everything we talked about in the last 15 minutes begins to get implemented. Welcome to a quick monk dialogue, just as the details of the Memorandum of Understanding between Iran and the United States have been formally announced in the media first today and then by the administration to reporters. We're going to break down some of the latest findings in the MOU with Janice Gross Stein, my co-host on the Friday Focus podcast. Janice, great to be in conversation with you. Who would believe that we would finally get 14 points? You're all on a page, right?

Yeah, and it seems like what had that. been leaked in the media over the last 2448 hours resembles very closely now to what administration officials are coming out and relaying to the press. Let's move through some of these. I got some boards up. I'll show them to you. We can take a few of the key ones that come to mind. Here's one that's causing a lot of attention. I'll read it to our podcast listeners. Those of you at YouTube can follow along. I quote from the memorandum, The United States undertakes together with its regional partners to create a comprehensive plan agreed upon by both parties for the rehabilitation and economic development of the Islamic Republic, ensuring financing of at least $300 billion. Janice, what do you make of it?

Where is this money going to come from? It's one of the 14 points, so it's clearly important to Iran and its government. sure is. Rudyard, you're not going to be surprised. There's less here than meets the eye from two perspectives. One, the money is not coming from the United States. It's going to come from countries in the Gulf, allegedly. That is the plan.

Secondly, and there's been a huge amount of leaks and counter leaks about all of this. But that rehabilitation fund, unlike the release of Iran, in frozen assets, which is different. This really, we could call an investment fund in Iran, kicks in over time as Iran makes commitments on its nuclear program and observes this. So to put this in a 60-day plan, this is a commitment in principle, as some of the U.S. negotiators have said, but it depends on performance. So I'm less worried about this than lots of other people.

Yeah, I mean, I guess my concern is it has kind of memories of Gaza on the Riviera. The president seems to get very excited with these big redevelopment plans. And right now, looking at the plight facing the people of Gaza, it seems like that vision of skyscrapers and beach resorts. is a long, long way off. Let's go to another key point in this 14-point plan. I'll read it to our podcast listeners. The United States commits to ending on a schedule to be agreed upon as part of the final agreement, all types of sanctions, all types of sanctions currently facing the Islamic Republic of Iran. Janice, that's quite sweeping language. It suggests what, the complete

rollback of the last decade plus of financial measures taken against a grant's banking sector, its economy, various forms of imports and exports, most notably oil. So there's three trickboards in there, Roger. It's the same story over and over, on a schedule to be agreed upon. So the way you read these, it could be, you know, because it's one of the 14 points, it's in these next 60 days. No one ain't. That schedule has to be agreed upon.

And again, it's conditional on two big things. One, Iran has to let tankers go through the streets without fees. We'll come to that in the moment. But equally important, there has to be real progress on the nuclear issue. And these will be phased in overtime. You know, we may never get to. to some of these, Roger. Yeah.

Let's go to another here, not unimportant one of the 14 points. The United States commits to ending, sorry, that's when we just dealt with. Here it is. The Islamic Republic of Iran reiterates, key word, reiterates that it will never produce nuclear weapons. So Janice, this is something you and I have discussed before. The president seems to be hanging a lot on the fact that Iran has made a major concession here.

Baja'ahua issued by the Ayatollah. If that's not a reiteration in the past, I don't know what was, whether it was real or not is another thing, and that will be a question for these negotiations. Is anything that Iran promises actually borne up? They're not to be cynical, but it's a meaningless statement, okay? And it's certainly meaningless for the president to claim any kind of victory on this. For two reasons. He rejected the first framework when it was close to being signed because he said they had to say not only would they not develop, but they wouldn't acquire or buy the ready-made version on the international market.

And it is possible to go quite far down the road doing that. That's not in this. And secondly, this doesn't mean anything unless there are specific arrangements about inspections. those are going to be negotiated during the 60-day period, and that period can be extended. So look, what we're doing here, clause after clause after clause, they are just broad framework principles that are only going to be implemented as progress occurs, and if, not only when, is a big statement here. Let's go to another key piece of language in the 14 points. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the U.S. have agreed that the fate of enriched material and the fate of

all other mutually agreed nuclear-related issues, including Iran's nuclear needs, will be adequately addressed in the final agreement. I love these specific words, like the fate of all other mutually agreed. Wow. There's three in there. If you keep that board up for one second, budget, okay? The fate of all other, and then what? Mutually agreed nuclear-related issues, which is what they're going to do with Haleen-Mishira A.M. What happens not only that, but the other 10,000 pounds, because this is 1,000. And in that interesting phrase, including Iran's nuclear needs, which generally in the past, has meant that Iran preserves its right to enrichment, even if it doesn't activate it.

So they spent hours and hours and hours on these phrases. The rubber hits the road when it comes to negotiations here. And I'm absolutely convinced, Judge, we're going to be at this. Four years, not months. Yeah, you could drive a truck through some of this language. Here's another one that's a little more precise. The United States undertakes that immediately the Treasury Department will issue waivers for the exports of Iranian crude, chemical products and their derivative.

So effectively, Iran without giving up much of anything on the nuclear file, on proxies, on missiles, gets to pocket some people estimate hundreds of millions of dollars a day in oil revenues based on the sale of what, I guess, is already out there in Iranian tankers. and more importantly, opening up their storage facilities that were in danger of severely damaging their wells because they were at capacity and production had been shut in. Yeah. So why do this? Well, one, because, as you know, it's not only the oil or the LNG liquid by natural gas, but all the byproducts of stuff that has been so burdensome on the global economy. And this is Trump's big goal. He wants this done now.

He rocks the tankers firing up now. And that's not going to happen. But, you know, there is an argument to be made here, and I'll make it on one other issue, that one of the things that went wrong with JCPOA, the earlier agreement of the Obama administration, there are all kinds of promises of investments and benefits. None of it or very little of it materialized in the period

that the agreement was enforced. It's an attempt to give some benefits to Iran right now for opening up the street in the expectation that if you get something out of it, you're going to be less inclined to disrupt in the future. Let's go to another key quote. The United States undertakes in light of the progress of negotiations towards a final agreement. So not a final agreement.

Progress towards a final agreement. the release of frozen or restricted assets, and these will be made fully available. This is quite emphatic and broad language. It's surprised many. So let's say, you know, let's keep it up there already more because it goes in two different ways. Okay. In light of progress, well, who gets to decide what progress is? This one is probably Americans.

And then here's the Iranian part of this, fully available. And what this refers to is the $24 billion of frozen Iranian assets, many of which are in Qatar, they are not, and very few are in the United States. So in a sense, we're seeing again, and actually Rubio talked about this fairly early on, that only, he says only if progress is made, will these funds be released in a phased way? And the Iranians say, are long held, the illegally held assets are now going to be released in this agreement.

You know, both interpretations are right because the language is so fussy. Yeah. I guess just to wrap this up, Janice, there's a lot of pushback that's coming out from a variety of different quarters, most notably within Donald Trump's own Republican Party, many senior Republicans saying this deal is far worse than they feared now that they've seen the language. The president said the quiet part out loud, though, at the G7 today, indicating that in a matter of weeks, the global economy would have been thrown into chaos because strategic reserves that

have been released around the world that have blunted the rise in oil prices had effectively run out. So what are we to make of this, Janice? It is, you know, what is there not to like in this deal for Iran? I understand that. I think it's obvious in some of the language we've gone over today. It seems Janice as if maybe this president ran out of time and had to make an agreement simply because there were bigger factors and forces pushing down on him. And maybe it's not just the midterms. Maybe there really was an energy crisis a matter of a week or two out that focused minds in the White House and has led to this opening bid for a set of negotiations that I guess we'll have to see how they'll play out in the weeks to come.

I think you're absolutely right. Roger, I have a number of colleagues who predicted that we would get something like this, but the third we could do when the energy crisis, we would be teetering on the edge of a much worse energy crisis. You know, here we are. And so what do we get for all of this? The straight of our moves, which you've said repeatedly and rightly was open before, is now going to be open again. You know that it's not a quick fix to the global economy.

It's going to take months, frankly, there are insurers of these tankers who are going to wait to see how safe that straight is and what Iran does. So this is not like flipping a light switch on. So we've restored the status quality. That's really where we are. And we still have a huge issue of Iran's nuclear program to deal with. And what Iran will get for that if it actually does it are the funds that you talked about. Let me tell you the spin is going on. There's spin here by both the president's team.

There's a wave of criticism. Interestingly enough, there's spin in Iran going to. There are hardliners in Iran who are appalled by what they feel Iran has given up. Yeah. Just finally, Janice, what do you think the odds are, first in the short term? You know, the president has in the past not reacted well to criticism. He rolled back a earlier seemingly imminent deal. Even today, he seemed to be talking about this MOU as if it wasn't fully agreed.

If the terms were still, in a sense, open for more negotiation, if he wasn't satisfied, he would get back to bombing. This is a president who seems to be constantly moving the lines. On the short term, how worried are you that this could all kind of derail before we even get to any form of substantive negotiation on the outstanding issues? Look, there's one wild card here, Roger, but a big picture. and I've said this to you, Iran does not want to go back to war. It is teetering on the edge two of its economy and its oil. It couldn't go on much longer before it would have had to shut down its oil wells, and that causes really severe structural damage.

It does not want to go back to war now. The United States doesn't want to go back to war. So I think we've got months where it's in their mutual interest and benefits, to allow oil to go through the Gulf, the strait. It's really important to Iran to get that money, too, as you mentioned. The wild card isn't in Lebanon because this is high stakes for both, and they have completely different interpretations of what that part of the agreement says, so that could disrupt.

Longer term, is this going to work? Wow, you have to be an optimist to think. We're going to get past the next several months and move forward on the nuclear agreement so that virtually everything we talked about in the last 15 minutes begins to get implemented. So final question. We've often focused on the midterm elections. That would suggest, Janice, that Iran's leverage will continue to remain high for the next period of time. as we head into the summer and then supposedly, if you believe pollsters, Americans' attentions

really turn to those midterm elections come early September. So, Janice, what is the risk here possibly that, you know, a president on one hand under attack for this deal, which, again, it's hard not to see it as a significant capitulation, at least set against the very ambitious and far-reaching original world. war aims of the president, which went from regime change, you know, through to Iran joining the Abraham Accords, if you could, if you believe the rhetoric. So we have that on one side. And then the other side, Iran knowing possibly that its leverage will decline after the midterm elections, once that vote is in, the president's deck will be set for the remainder of his

his time in office. How do you see those two tectonic plates kind of moving and grinding together over the next 90 to 100 days? You know, the people who are in charge now are more militant than the previous government, and they know that this is probably a maximum point of leverage right now, Redyard, but they're sobered to by how terrible their own economy is. You know, let me just take an extra second for a second. The Iranian soccer team is playing the World Cup. And historically, that has been a huge source of support and cheer, really, for the Iranians, who daily life has gotten worse and worse, not this year.

And over and over again, on Iranian blogs, you read, it doesn't matter, we have no bandwidth for this. Our lives have deteriorated to such an awful degree. that we simply have no interest. This government, regardless of how it is willing to kill its own people, and we saw that in January, it knows it doesn't make it over the long term unless it does something to address the economy. Their situation and Donald Trump's not all that different.

Okay, Janice, we will leave it there. Thanks for finding some time for us today to break down the terms of this agreement. I guess there's word now that there will possibly not be a in-person signing. Instead, we'll go back to a second electronic signing. I'm not so sure what the first one was about, but needless to say, possible meetings as early as the weekend between J.D. Vance and his Iranian counterpart to pick up elements of this deal. Let's see. I'm skeptical. I'm not, I hope it holds, but I worry that this president is a bit like a weather vein. And if the wind starts blowing in one direction, he can end up turning his head around 180 degrees.

Oh, yeah. I mean, this is, you know, we're in the middle of that. I just finished the big G7 summit in France. If there's one source of agreement by the six, don't never know what you're going to get when Donald Trump walks into the room. You just never know. Yeah. Yeah.

Chaos, I think, is usually what you can count on. We'll leave it there. Thanks for catching up with me. and being part of this quick monk dialogue on an important day. Always a pleasure to be with you, Roger. That was Janice Gostin, the founding director of the Monk School of Global Affairs, and my co-host on our Friday Focus program. We hope you enjoyed this Monk Dialogue.

We'll be back with our regular Friday Focus show to break down all the week's developments and see, indeed, what's going to happen in the next 48 hours? Will this agreement hold? How will the president respond to a growing chorus of criticism about the deal in its many aspects. So stick around for Friday Focus. If you're not already a Monk donor,

consider heading over to our website. Monk donors get the back half of the Friday Focus podcast, an early peak, 72 hours advance notice on some of our best discussion each and every Friday. You can do that right now at triple w.m.k. Debateswithan s.com. I'm Rudyard Griffiths, chair of the monk debates. Talk to you soon.

Bye-bye. The Monk Debates are a project of the Aurea and Peter and Melanie Monk charitable foundations. Rudyard Griffiths and Ricky Gerwitz are the producers. Be sure to download and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts. And if you like us, feel free to give us a five-star rating. Thank you again for listening.