The Munk Debates Podcast - Munk Members-Only Pod: Episode 11

Episode Date: March 19, 2021

This is a sample of the Munk Members-Only Podcast. The program provides listeners with a focused, half-hour masterclass on the big issues, events and trends driving news and current events. The show features Janice Gross Stein, the founding director of the Munk School of Global Affairs and bestselling author, in conversation with Rudyard Griffiths, Chair and moderator of the Munk Debates. This week's Munk Members Podcast focuses on three big issues in the news: ambassadors are being recalled, personal insults traded, and sanctions levied – why are Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin having a very public dispute over who is the bigger “killer” and what does it mean for the future of US-Russia relations?; China has announced Canada's “Two Michaels” will soon go on trail – with a conviction rate of 99% in mainland courts, what are their chances of ever winning their freedom and can the Canadian government do anything meaningful to secure their release?; and the Astra Zeneca “jab” is once again a flash point between the EU and Britain over who get access to millions of doses first – is it really safe for older people? How is the public meant to interpret the slew health authorities issuing conflicting guidelines on this high profile vaccine? We discuss it all. To access the full length episode consider becoming a Munk Member. Membership is free. Simply log on to www.munkdebates.com/membership to register. Under your membership profile page you will find a link to listen to the full length editions of Munk Members Podcast. If you like what the Munk Debates is all about consider becoming a Supporting Member. For as little as $9.99 monthly you receive unlimited access to our 10+ year library of great debates in HD video, a free Munk Debates book, monthly newsletter, ticketing privileges at our live and online events and a charitable tax receipt (for Canadian residents). To explore you Munk Membership options visit www.munkdebates.com/membership. This podcast is a project of the Munk Debates, a Canadian charitable organization dedicated to fostering civil and substantive public dialogue. More information at www.munkdebates.com.Become a Munk Donor ($50 annually) to get 72-hour advanced access to the full length editions of Friday Focus and Munk Dialogues. Go to www.munkdebates.com to sign up. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Hi, Monk podcast listeners. The following is a sample of the Monk members-only podcast. To access the full-length edition of this episode and all of our regular Monk members-only podcasts, go to our website, www.com, and register for membership. Membership is free, and it's available for you right now at www. monkdebates.com. Hope you enjoy the program. Hello, Monk members, and welcome to this our weekly podcast. This is a show that we curate for you, meant to provide in 30 minutes or less, some new analysis, insights, ideas for you to think about in terms of the week that was, and the week that is coming as our guide to these extraordinary events that we find ourselves in, we're exceedingly fortunate

to have Janice Gross Stein on our program. She's the founding director of the Monk School of Global Affairs, an internationally acclaimed scholar author, and my first. My friend, former teacher of international relations, along with thousands and thousands of other Canadians around the world that she's influenced through her scholarship and teaching. Janice, great to have you back for these kind of informal seminars. And just great to be with you and all the monk members. We have to kick off this week with this kind of war of words that Joe Biden has escalated with President Vladimir Putin. It really began in an interview this week where

Biden responding to a question from a journalist, kind of inferred that Putin was a, quote, killer and that Putin had acknowledged to him that he had no soul. You once said something to be very wise, Janice, that, you know, there really is no foreign policy per se. This is all kind of domestic politics amplified and focused through, you know, how leaders behave on the international stage. So what's your take here? Is Joe Biden engaged in an attempt here to kind of shore up domestic support for a kind of strong man image of the United States on the world stage? Is that's what, is that what is going on? There's no doubt this is a domestic politics story. But let's take a step back just for one minute to talk about something that is directly in your wheelhouse, how the reporter set this

up for Joe Biden. And Joe Biden is not famous for the careful use of his words and thoughtful responses. That was always an issue with him. The reporter says to him, President Biden, are you saying that President Putin is a killer? Do you think he's a killer? And Joe Biden says, yes, I do. Now, any experienced person would like, look at that and say, oh, that's entrapment, right? Biden went somewhere, agreed to a word that wasn't his, that was the reporters, but he did agree. And the screaming headline is Joe Biden says Vladimir Putin is a killer. And that's what unleashed this whole story. Rule number one, when a reporter gives you a word to describe somebody, don't take it. But that's not going to help

with Joe Biden. This is the first many that we will see like this. But I watched the interview. And the second thing is, when the reporter asked him the question, Biden narrowed his eyes. He's angry. Now, what's he angry about? He's angry about Russian interference in U.S. elections. That is a domestic politics story. And he's angry that Trump never acknowledged. And he wanted to show himself as different than Donald Trump. He wants to essentially signal to the U.S. electorate over and over, I'm not Donald Trump. And Donald Trump was craven in the way he treated the Russians.

That's not me. I'm going to be tough. So this is entirely really a domestic politics story. I wondered, you know, it hasn't been covered a lot in the media here in Canada, about this whole solar winds hack where the Russians basically used a third-party software provider to basically penetrate huge swaths of the U.S. government, of aligned agencies. It was probably one of the most profound cyber breaches of the U.S. government in recent memory. So I get why there is a lot of frustration and anger.

What I found interesting this week is not just Russia, but, you know, you know, as we go to air, you know, China kind of brushing back U.S. criticism coming out of some some high-level bilateral kind of meetings. Janice, is it right to say there's a kind of a different attitude towards America and American power on the world stage where these countries like China and Russia, you know what, Mr. Biden, you can sound off. Your Secretary of State can sound off, but, you know, we're going to speak back. maybe we're not as worried as we used to be about your ability to create pain points for us

that will actually change our behavior. You know, that's the larger story here, Richard. Again, you know, as someone who watches for these nuances, an astonishing story coming out of Alaska, where Secretary of State Blinken had the first really crossed the table meeting with his counterpart from China. He broke protocol.

Blinken, he pointed his finger at the press as he was about to speak tough to China because they were getting ready to leave the room after the usual photo ops. He said, come back in. So he signaled to the Chinese that he was going to record his tough talk. for public consumption.

Whereupon the Chinese responded and broke protocol in return instead of their usual two minutes at the beginning, they went out the United States for 15 minutes. Now, I could say this was the most unprofessional performance

by both the U.S. and the Chinese delegations. Just like, frankly, this was not a very mature performance by Joe Biden either. But there was a larger picture here that you're put your finger on absolutely correctly. The United States knows that the Chinese and the Russians for different reasons perceive them as weak under Donald Trump. The feeling of the Biden administration

is both those countries took advantage. The solar wind story is a huge story. It's probably one of the most neglected and most important stories. But the widespread breach as a result, of a cyber attack and the vulnerability of everybody to this and how unprepared really the United States and all of us are for that kind of reach. In response, the United States is up being the rhetoric, but they're getting pushback. And there is no question that both of those, both Vladimir Putin and Shishi Ping are saying to the United States, this is a different world? We're more powerful, you're less powerful, don't think that it's business as usual

that the United States is back to the world that it left in 2016. Our remaining moments on this topic, you know, where does it go from here? Because Biden has implied that Russia, you know, is going to have something served up courtesy of the U.S. government, the security apparatus, I don't know what.

In other words, there was an implied threat. Oh, yeah. You know, we looked at those sanctions. We talked about them in a previous show, about how, you know, they weren't targeting the leaders. They were targeting the people around the leaders. You know, again, suggesting that the Americans weren't ready to really take risks in terms of their pushback to either Saudi Arabia, Russia, arguably China too. So why isn't it right for just China and Russia to call America's bluff to, in a sense, provide an objective, demonstration of the decline of American power?

Well, you know, there's no question something is coming, Richard. Again, watch those eyes in the interview in it, and that's where Biden narrowed his eyes. What's coming? And it's a difficult dance. What's coming is an offensive cyber attack by the United States against Russia. And it's going to happen in two ways. The first way is going to be invisible to, uh, to, everybody but the Russians. And the United States are not going to acknowledge it, but they have

deeply penetrated the systems. You know, things like the electricity grid. We're talking deep and fundamental penetration of all these systems. And the United States has forborne very deliberately from using these kinds of weapons, because think of the road we're going down. I do this to you. You know, the Chinese just shut off the electricity grid. in Mumbai last month, to send a signal to the government of India, soften up your position in these border talks. Once we get into this world, we are in a very different world where you use offensive cyber weapons. The United States will do some of that to Russia and never talk about it because it doesn't want to openly do it. And then it will do something more visibly that the

rest of us will know about. But this delay is all about carefully. choosing what kind of cyber weapons they are going to use it. But, Janice, this is so good, we've got to go a bit longer here. I mean, are you worried that, I mean, Russia has a history of punching back. I mean, Putin, look at Crimea, look at Georgia. This is not a guy who just sits on his hands and says, well, you know, I slapped your wrist. You're now, you know, you'll slap mine and we'll call it even. I mean, this worries me.

I mean, these are two large nuclear armed powers that, you know, you're not. have clearly, you know, bilateral relationship now, which is bad as anything during the Cold War. That's why, in a way, it's unfortunate that, you know, that Biden with Russia, blinking with China, has up the rhetoric out of the gate. There could have, frankly, mean more sophisticated messaging. But here's what's really interesting, Roger. It's not nuclear weapons that are in the threat here. we're in a new world where lower levels of warfare, because that's what cyber warfare is, lower levels of war, can inflict huge damage.

So how would we feel where we are if our networks were shut down for 36 hours? How much would that interfere with our lives right now while we're in a pandemic? I mean, we wouldn't be able to function, frankly. But every single we have built, and this is a larger point, we have built a cyber system that you live on, that I live on, that our members live on, which is vulnerable. We cannot protect it from attack from the outside. And it's vulnerable at any moment when countries like China or Russia or cyber criminals choose to shut it. down. We don't have a precedent for this. But again, as you say, the temptation for escalation and the temptation for... So what constraints escalation, Rudd? That's a really great... I'll tell you what...

I mean, if I was the United States, I'd be pretty worried about my economy. I'd be worried about the financialization of my economy, the stock market, how relying on I'm on that, any large-scale disruptions of the American power grid, communications. would, you know, cause huge shockwaves of uncertainty through the U.S. economy. So why would I risk going after Russia if I'm so vulnerable internally? So that's exactly what's constrained America from using its cyber weapons. It has been reluctant to go on the offense in a serious way because it knows how reliant it is and how vulnerable it is.

and the solar wind story. To me, it's absolutely amazing. You know, the breach was discovered not by any and not by the security agencies or homeland security, or it was discovered by a private company months after it occurred. But you could see it in the United States really angry about that hack, really angry about election interference. And I, you watch, you know, you read my lips.

They have said it now several times there will be consequences and nobody will know about some of them. There's only one way to read that they are going up the cyber warfare ladder against Russia in the next couple months. Well, Jess, we've gone long in this segment, but I think these are just fascinating and somewhat hair racing issues to discuss. You've been listening to a sample of the Monk members only podcast. To access the rest of the episode, consider becoming a member. Membership is free and available at www. monk debates.com. Once you've joined as a member, go to your membership profile to access the rest of this episode and all of our Monk members podcast. Thanks for listening.