The Munk Debates Podcast - Munk Members-Only Pod: Episode 20

Episode Date: May 21, 2021

This is a sample of the Munk Members-Only Podcast. The program provides listeners with a focused, half-hour masterclass on the big issues, events and trends driving news and current events. The show features Janice Gross Stein, the founding director of the Munk School of Global Affairs and bestselling author, in conversation with Rudyard Griffiths, Chair and moderator of the Munk Debates. This week's Munk Members Podcast explore three topics: Israel and Hamas agree to a ceasefire in Gaza – Is this the basis for a lasting truce? Who has come out on top after two weeks of bloody conflict?; Colonial Pipeline's ransomware attack and its implications for Bitcoin – Was the twin moves by the US and Chinese government threatening Bitcoin regulation the start of new phase of government scrutiny of crypto currencies? To what extent are ransomware attacks like the online experienced by Colonial pushing government towards controlling crypto currencies?; and our last topic this week was Douglas Murray's recent Munk Dialogue – How do we best explain the rapid growth of identity politics in our time? To access the full length episode consider becoming a Munk Member. Membership is free. Simply log on to www.munkdebates.com/membership to register. Under your membership profile page you will find a link to listen to the full length editions of Munk Members Podcast. If you like what the Munk Debates is all about consider becoming a Supporting Member. For as little as $9.99 monthly you receive unlimited access to our 10+ year library of great debates in HD video, a free Munk Debates book, monthly newsletter, ticketing privileges at our live and online events and a charitable tax receipt (for Canadian residents). To explore you Munk Membership options visit www.munkdebates.com/membership. This podcast is a project of the Munk Debates, a Canadian charitable organization dedicated to fostering civil and substantive public dialogue. More information at www.munkdebates.com.Become a Munk Donor ($50 annually) to get 72-hour advanced access to the full length editions of Friday Focus and Munk Dialogues. Go to www.munkdebates.com to sign up. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Hi, Monk podcast listeners. The following is a sample of the Monk members-only podcast. To access the full-length edition of this episode and all of our regular Monk members-only podcasts, go to our website, www.W.munkdebates.com and register for membership. Membership is free, and it's available for you right now at www.munkdebates.com. Hope you enjoy the program. Hello, Monk members, and welcome to this, our regular Monk Members-only podcast. This is our weekly program where we dive into the big issues and ideas in the news in the past seven days, hopefully leaving you with some new analysis and insights on what happened, why it was important, and what we can learn from the last seven days and current events.

As our guide, we are always fortunate to have Janice Gross Stein, the founding director, the Monk School of Global Affairs, internationally acclaimed scholar and author, and again, all ours for the next 30 minutes. Janice, great to be talking with you on this Friday. Great to be here, Richard, and great to be with all our friends, our monk members. Janice, one of the real privileges of having these conversations with you is that you've spent a kind of lifetime thinking and reflecting on the politics and power in the Middle East. For those of us, myself included, who have not been following maybe as much as we should, the ongoing. conflict between Hamas and the state of Israel. What should we have taken away from the last

seven days since we last talked? And as of yesterday, a ceasefire declared, a ceasefire agreement, to what extent is this a pivotal moment in this conflict? Give us your sense of what to take away from the last week, for those of us, again, who have not been following every twist and turn in this drama. You're not surprising that you haven't, Roger, because we've seen this movie before we've seen it over and over. And so let's abandon the idea of a pivotal moment. This conflict doesn't pivot. It's been going on for 150 years and it will not end as a result of the ceasefire. What's really striking is how all politics are local. We can really understand this is a story of two elections, one in Palestine with the

Palestinian Authority, one in Israel, where Netanyahu almost lost. The opposition that has been trying to get rid of him for over a decade was within sight. And then this conflict blows up. That is gone. There is now talk about a national unity government, and he will continue to be the prime minister, despite the fact that he faces an ongoing criminal trial.

Hamas, they have not used rocket fire to achieve their objectives for seven years, but wow, just before those Palestinian elections were scheduled, they made a decision to return to a more active form of warfare. Out of this, Abbas, sideline, no elections, Hamas with the high profile now, the defender of Palestinians, the defender of Jerusalem. But, and here's the big but, one more time of devastated infrastructure, which is what has reduced Gaz and support for Hamas over the years. Who's the winner here, Roger?

One person for sure. Nathanielhu stays in office. And that's why he's called the master of politician. Somehow he rises from the ashes over and over and over again. What do you think of this analysis that Hamas is also a big winner here? And it's not simply that they have pushed Fata and Mahud Abbas to the kind of periphery of Palestinian politics, seizing in a sense control politically of the Palestinian movement, not just in Gaza and the West Bank, but Lebanon, Egypt and elsewhere.

They are now, you know, again, we'll see if there's elections or not, but they are the de facto leaders of the Palestinian cause. And more importantly, some analysts saying their real victory is the extent to which they were able to sow the seeds of intercommunal violence in Israel in a way that wasn't evident in the last eruption. What was that? 7,8 years ago. 2014. So Hamas has achieved something important here. It has divided Israel. Israeli society. It has surfaced in Israeli society, these fault lines, these fractures that

many say are the result of Netanyahu, frankly, just staying too long, of creating a situation in Israel, as you characterized, albeit slightly tongue in cheek last week, of a kind of failed state, a state that's incapable of having elections to express a political consensus in a country and move on with policies that reflect this consensus. So do you, do you, What do you think of that analysis that Hamas here has really left the table with some important new stakes that they can potentially play, as you say, in the next round of this never-ending conflict? Certainly if you look at where everybody is right after the ceasefire, Hamas looks like it's made some big games. But here's the story, Roger. Hamas lives or dies by weather, Gazans

support them ultimately. And again, and you look at those pictures of the destroyed infrastructure in Gaza. So whatever political benefit Hamas gets short term, if they cannot address, this is about delivering the goods, as we've talked about it. Can government meet the expectations of people? And there is a sense of huge frustration among Gaza's, which partly explains why Hamas did this. So here's an area where it may break through, but let's see, the Biden administration, who had no policy on this conflict at all, wanted it to go away. Just wanted it to go away. But as the Afroism goes, it doesn't matter whether you pay attention to Israel, Palestine or not. Israel, Palestine will come and get you.

And that's exactly what happened to this administration's had every president since, frankly, the 60s. So Biden is now about the rumors have it, about to go in with massive spending in Gaza to rebuild the infrastructure. That's the plan. Now, let's see the execution. What agencies is that money going to go to? It can't go to Hamas directly. UN agencies in the area, frankly, have a not very good record of managing that money. And if that's the plan,

And it fails yet one more time, as it has repeatedly, the gains that Hamas has made are not going to be longstanding. Well, you know, America's success at reconstruction in Iraq and Afghanistan really is stellar. So I'm not holding my breath here for their ability. Also, their ability politically to sustain support for Gaza in a meaningful way. You know, Rudyard, one more point we're talking about that kind of escape. attention. Egypt has been, you know, surpassed by glitzy Emirates and reawakening and modernizing Saudis, mesmerizing everybody. Once the fighting actually broke out, Egypt was the only government that had connections to Hamas and to the Israeli government. This ceasefire is an Egyptian product,

frankly, interesting. Yeah, Biden weighed in on the telephone, but the heavy lift on the this was the government of Egypt. Egypt never goes away. It never. It's, you know, it's one of the old societies that you and I've been talking about whose history goes back 5,000 years. They have a sense of the long game, the Egyptians. When you talk to them, they tell you, we'll be here in 3,000 years. Will you? So, Janice, final question on this before we move on. Does the ceasefire hold? Is this, in a sense, the news? The new kind of de facto phase of this conflict? Yeah.

This ceasefire does hold. Hamas has been asking for ceasefire for five or six states. Netanyahu held off for political gain. So they have no reason to disrupt it. Netanyahu has got what he wants. So we are back to how do we break this cycle? So five years or six years from now, you and I are not sitting here with members talking about one more explosion. It's not an easy question and it sure has no easy answers.

You've been listening to a sample of the Monk Members Only podcast. To access the rest of the episode, consider becoming a member. Membership is free and available at www.munkdebates.com. Once you've joined as a member, go to your membership profile to access the rest of this episode and all of our Monk members podcast. Thanks for listening.