The Munk Debates Podcast - Munk Members-Only Pod: Episode 22

Episode Date: June 4, 2021

This is a sample of the Munk Members-Only Podcast. The program provides listeners with a focused, half-hour masterclass on the big issues, events and trends driving news and current events. The show features Janice Gross Stein, the founding director of the Munk School of Global Affairs and bestselling author, in conversation with Rudyard Griffiths, Chair and moderator of the Munk Debates. This week's Munk Members Podcast tackles three stories from the past week: Xi Jinping announces a new cooperative tone for Chinese diplomacy – Is this a meaningful change in China's geopolitical world view? What does it mean for countries like Canada who have seen relations with the Middle Kingdom hit all-time lows?; America's largest meatpacking business is the victim of the latest ransom attack on key U.S. infrastructure – Why are these attacks accelerating? And is Russia the real culprit here using third party hackers to destabilize its major military and economic competitor?; And finally we revisit last night's Munk Dialogue with Nesrine Malik. What did we learn from this fascinating conversation on identity politics? To access the full length episode consider becoming a Munk Member. Membership is free. Simply log on to www.munkdebates.com/membership to register. Under your membership profile page you will find a link to listen to the full length editions of Munk Members Podcast. If you like what the Munk Debates is all about consider becoming a Supporting Member. For as little as $9.99 monthly you receive unlimited access to our 10+ year library of great debates in HD video, a free Munk Debates book, monthly newsletter, ticketing privileges at our live and online events and a charitable tax receipt (for Canadian residents). To explore you Munk Membership options visit www.munkdebates.com/membership. This podcast is a project of the Munk Debates, a Canadian charitable organization dedicated to fostering civil and substantive public dialogue. More information at www.munkdebates.com.Become a Munk Donor ($50 annually) to get 72-hour advanced access to the full length editions of Friday Focus and Munk Dialogues. Go to www.munkdebates.com to sign up. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Hi, Monk podcast listeners. The following is a sample of the Monk members-only podcast. To access the full-length edition of this episode and all of our regular Monk members-only podcasts, go to our website, www.W.Munk Debates.com and register for membership. Membership is free, and it's available for you right now at www.munkdebates.com. I hope you enjoy the program. Hello, Monk members, and welcome to this, our regular Monk Members-only podcast. This is our weekly program where we delve into the big issues and ideas shaping our world in the news. Hopefully leave you with some new reflections and analysis to understand what is going on. Our guest, as always, on these programs, is the irreplaceable Janice Groh Stein.

She's the founding director, the Monk School of Global Affairs, an internationally acclaimed author and scholar. And she's all ours for the next half hour. Janice, great to be in dialogue with you again today. It's so good to be with you, Rudyard, and the monk members and some really interesting stories this week. That's right. Number one, let's talk about a new tone out of China, out of the mouth of Xi Jinping, effectively saying China is facing a backlash internationally, recognizing that and that Chinese diplomat should be speaking with the rest of the world in a different tone. less of this so-called wolf pack, wolf-pack diplomacy, more of a focus on burnishing China's reputation as a partner. A little aside here, a little kind of monk magic in this story, a scholar, a Chinese scholar, Jing Wei Wei, who was featured on the monk dialogues last

spring, is being credited in the press as the person who intervened with the person who intervened with Xi and has convinced him, or at least nudged him into reassessing this kind of harsh tone that Canada really has been, in some ways, bearing the brunt of for the last 18 months when it comes to how China speaks in or interacts with its partners around the world. So my question for you, Janice, is, how do we read this? Is this simply a recalibration on the eve of the Tiananmen massacre, the anniversary? is this getting out in front of maybe some very difficult stories in the weeks to come about the virus having leaked from a laboratory in China? Or is this a more substantial reset of Chinese diplomacy?

That's a great question, Richard. And we can guess at this, but we won't know until that, you know, we won't know for several months. But here's the big point. You know, the kind of really aggressive wolf-pack diplomacy that has been coming out of China. And it's not only Canada, it's Switzerland, it's Nigeria, it's other countries as well. What did that reflect? Why did we? Because it was so atypical of China.

They had very, very sophisticated diplomats. So why do we get this? Well, one big reason we may have gotten this is China, and you heard this in the species of Chinese leaders, the tide of history has turned. The epidemic of the United States has feet of clay as the United Kingdom. They can't manage their way out of a paper bag. And we are on the ascendant. And all of a sudden the muscle came out.

We are the world's new power. And we've just gained 10 years. And that's what I think really led to this. We don't have to be careful anymore. We can just really flex our muscle. Nobody has a choice. Well, hold on a minute. Three big things.

First along comes Biden, whom everybody likes better, and says he's putting together a coalition of like-minded because China is really a threat, long-term threat to the United States. I think all our member know there are Chinese companies that are now banned from receiving technology implications for the listing on stock exchange. There are real consequences. That's number one. Number two, a really sobering report comes out in China about the birth rate.

It has plummeted. And you got the reaction in China, a three-child policy. Well, the two-child policy didn't make a difference. They're on a downward spiral in terms of population. It's got huge consequences for their assent over the next 20 years. I think, yes, getting to Xi, and it would be an incredible story. if it's for the background. Because with leaders, somebody has to go to them and talk to them

and say, you don't get it. You don't get how the way we're speaking is influencing people. But I think it goes deeper, I hope. It's a kind of pause moment. Hey, you know, we've got some big challenges ahead. The United States is recovering, at least for the moment. And Deng Xiaoping's old outage, you know, walk softly. Be careful.

Don't draw attention to yourself. That was wise. That was a very wise strategy. And Zhang Wei Wei, our monk dialogue speaker, who, again, is the person that media is reporting was kind of instrumental in convincing Xi and the party to come out with his speech. He was Deng Xiaoping's translator and one of Deng Xiaoping's key kind of advisors. interesting to see the shadow of Deng kind of reasserting itself over the more kind of Maoist

inclinations that have been associated with Xi. I guess what I concerned about, though, Janus is, yes, this is this is positive rhetoric over Xi, but let's look at reality. The reality is that democracy in Hong Kong has been smothered. It is effectively over as a semi-firm. autonomous principality of China. It's now integrated. Zhang has, Xi has followed a very aggressive policy with India and the Nepalese border, building these settlements forcibly relocating populations, engaging in real kind of military brinksmanship with the Indians. And then we know the story of Taiwan. hundreds of sorters of sorties being flown over T1E's airspace, naval drills.

So again, what do we make between the reality, the actions of the regime versus, you know, this rhetoric? And is this, again, a kind of, you know, slight of hand here? You know, we're going to say one thing, but we're really actually going to do something else that's very different. You know, that's why we all need to watch very carefully over these next six to eight months. And what's the best we can hope for, Roger, that this is more than skin deep, that there's a bit of chasing because you put it exactly right. They're always competing tendencies inside every country. You know, in this Canada, in this country in Canada, you know, we have Tories and we have liberals and when one's in power, the rhetoric sounds different. but it reflects more fundamentals differences in policy.

In China, there are the Maoists and there are the Deng Xiaopingis. And which one is in a sentencing at any time really makes a difference. So where could we see a difference? Well, not on Taiwan because there's unity across the board on that one. There's no movement. It doesn't matter. Who's whispering in the pre-giers here? Hong Kong, really unlikely, frankly.

So there are this basket of neighborhood security issues. China's not going to move on that. What might they move on? Well, are we going to see any movement on the two Michaels? That's not a hard give. Right? That's not a hard give. And we could see movement a lot of ways.

We could see easing up on visitor restrictions. we could see some sort of meaningful offer on the table here because there have been back channel negotiations going on for months and months and months and they need to be coordinated. So if we see movement on something like that where it's an easier give, and you can imagine how that would change public perceptions if China moved on that kind of issue. So we're looking really here for soft gives over the next six months.

If we get those, then this is a real moment, not just a cosmetic adjustment. I think that's a smart way to look at this. Let's see if there's substantive steps. And just for our American listeners, the two Michaels are the two Canadians that have been held for over 900 days now in Chinese detention facilities on what everyone feels are kind of trumped up espionage. charges. You've been listening to a sample of the Monk members-only podcast. To access the rest of the episode, consider becoming a member. Membership is free and available at www.w monkdebates.com. Once you've joined as a member, go to your membership profile to access the rest of this episode and all of our Monk members' podcasts. Thanks for listening.