The Munk Debates Podcast - Munk Members-Only Pod: Episode 24

Episode Date: June 18, 2021

This is a sample of the Munk Members-Only Podcast. The program provides listeners with a focused, half-hour masterclass on the big issues, events and trends driving news and current events. The show features Janice Gross Stein, the founding director of the Munk School of Global Affairs and bestselling author, in conversation with Rudyard Griffiths, Chair and moderator of the Munk Debates. This week's Munk Members podcast explores three topics of interest this week: Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin have their first one-on-one summit – What did we learn from the meeting? How is American policy changing towards Russia? Will we see a shift in Putin's behavior?; Canada's Liberal government found in contempt of Parliament over failure to release documents about a virology lab – What is really going on in this tug of war between Parliament and the PM? And, could it trigger an election?; And finally we unpack the key insights of Timothy Snyder's Munk Dialogue on authoritarianism's threat to liberal democracy. To access the full length episode consider becoming a Munk Member. Membership is free. Simply log on to www.munkdebates.com/membership to register. Under your membership profile page you will find a link to listen to the full length editions of Munk Members Podcast. If you like what the Munk Debates is all about consider becoming a Supporting Member. For as little as $9.99 monthly you receive unlimited access to our 10+ year library of great debates in HD video, a free Munk Debates book, monthly newsletter, ticketing privileges at our live and online events and a charitable tax receipt (for Canadian residents). To explore you Munk Membership options visit www.munkdebates.com/membership. This podcast is a project of the Munk Debates, a Canadian charitable organization dedicated to fostering civil and substantive public dialogue. More information at www.munkdebates.com.Become a Munk Donor ($50 annually) to get 72-hour advanced access to the full length editions of Friday Focus and Munk Dialogues. Go to www.munkdebates.com to sign up. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Hi, Monk podcast listeners. The following is a sample of the Monk members-only podcast. To access the full-length edition of this episode and all of our regular Monk members-only podcasts, go to our website, www.wmunkdebates.com, and register for membership. Membership is free, and it's available for you right now at www.munkdebates.com. Hope you enjoy the program. Hello, Monk members. Rudyard Griffiths here, your host and moderator. to this, our regular Friday Monk members-only podcast where we dig into three of the big issues that we think are important to have on your radar, to understand the week that was, and

possibly the week to come. As our guide, we're extremely fortunate to have regularly on this program, Janice Gross Stein. She's the founding director of the Monk School of Global Affairs, internationally best-selling author, commentator, Janice, terrific to be in dialogue with you today. Great to be with you, Redyard. And what a juicy week for stories. Yes, a target-rich environment, I think is the way I would put it. And we have to start, Janice, with the Biden-Putin summit. And what, if anything, came out of this, whether we can kind of sift through the tea leaves to understand whether there is a kind of meaningful set of steps or actions that might hopefully better a relationship between these two powers.

That's important to world peace. It's important to Canada. What was your takeaway a kind of draw here? a sense that there might be an opportunity for some additional discussion and collaboration, but maybe nothing really significant in terms of a meeting of the minds or a reset to use Obama-era language? So I gave these two an A-minus. I thought really pretty good.

A really competent performance by both of them. And what makes it competent, Roger, they dialed it down. There were no grand ideological expectations here, no big reset, no new light dawning over the horizon between these two. These are two wily experienced men who understand the limits of what they can get done together, but also recognize they can get some stuff done together. So they turn this into a professional working relationship, which is what you need. actually when you disagree pretty fundamentally one with the other. Kudos to them that they put this on a professional track.

Two, Joe Biden walked into that meeting and he came with a list. And I really appreciate that he put this list on the table. Sixteen sites in the United States, he told Putin, don't fool around with your cyber weapons against these 16 sites. Now, why do we care? Electricity grids, pipelines, a whole set of infrastructure in the United States, which if they're the subject of cyber attacks, can really be disruptive in the United States. So here's what's really interesting about this story, the 16, and this is always the problem when you threaten somebody.

If you touch one of these 16 areas of our infrastructure, we are going to respond. And I'm telling you, I'm serious. And you stare. Joe Biden, I don't know if he can stare. I think he can stare. But let's say he can stare at Putin and narrow his eyes. But here's the double message here. And that's why I think it's so interesting.

Okay, don't touch C-16. Can I touch everything else then? Because you drew a box around these 16? that's where the real substance of this meaning was in Geneva. It's the open. And they've created a cyber task force. So cyber is something we've been talking a lot on this show, I think rightly after the colonial pipeline shut down the United States,

this similar hack on America's largest meat producer. Does a task force like that, I don't know, what is the purpose there? I mean, is it signaling that the two sides are aware of each other's concerns, but maybe not really willing to engage in substance? I mean, I just can't see Putin giving this up. It is such a, it's such a tailor-made piece for his kind of asymmetrical arsenal of how he, from a very weak position, does a remarkably effective job of projecting power and having, you know, influence. And he can go on using these cutouts, which are, you know, Ukrainian and Belarusian and other kind of hacker groups to do his work. And it doesn't necessarily have to be, I quote, cyber attack on the U.S. by Russia. Instead, it's much more insiduous. It creates a sense of anxiety,

I think, a sense of uncertainty, an awareness of weakness that saps away. at American confidence. I mean, isn't this just too good for Putin really to put tools down when it comes to cyber? You know, you're absolutely right that this is one of his preferred tools, precisely because it's relatively inexpensive to use. Train the right hackers, let them lose. And, you know, all young people have an interest in hacking at one or other stages of their careers, frankly. So lots of recruits, easy to get.

And then just let them lose. But here's why that task force really matters. This is the early stage. And I'm not drawing any equivalent between nuclear weapons and cyber weapons because that's preposterous. But in the early days, these conversations started and it was, what are the rules of the road? Right? What's off limits? So it's not inconceived.

that Putin could agree. You do not attack electricity grids. You do not attack air controllers. To give you another example, which is entirely possible. There's a series of core infrastructure assets. And it's all dressed up in language. We won't do it to you. You won't do it to us. But you gradually and you let the officials go at it and go out and you come up with a list of things. And it's soft law, it's norms, but you begin to, and that's really how the then-Sovic Union and the United States got themselves out of a path which could have landed, really with nuclear escalation. So these are early, early days, but this is the right way to go with this budget. Are we going to get dramatic results in six months? No.

And here's the trick. You've got to leave Putin enough. So is it okay with you, Roger, if they attack the banks and the hedge funds, but they say no attack against trains, airplanes, infrastructure, water, electricity pipelines. Would you be good with that? Where do you draw this line? Because we're going to draw it somewhere over these next few years. And are there government systems fair game, open game? Because I would assume that they are.

I mean, even if they say we're going to draw a red line around the Pentagon or. around our defense secrets. This is what they have these capabilities ultimately for or originally for, which was cyber espionage. So doesn't all that just continue to go on and then, you know, isn't there still the danger of a cycle of escalation, in other words, that there are really juicy targets, painful pressure points that they can hit with each other? And what does it take for somebody to say, hey, you know what?

that was below the bell. We didn't appreciate that. There's a pipeline. There's a water treatment plant. There's a nuclear power plant. We're going to flag. We're going to show that if you go deeper into our state systems, we're going to juice you in your civil systems where you're the most anxious. I would think that those are just, again, deterrence to use your, I think, interesting analogy here of nuclear weapons versus cyber. deterrence has to work precisely because with nuclear weapons, nothing's off the table. It's thermonuclear annihilation. It's mutual assured destruction that prevents us from using these things. So let's distinguish for a minute between cyber espionage. I put a bug in your computer. Every time you turn on your computer, I'm monitoring your camera and your microphone. I'm listening to everything you say. but I'm not taking your system down and cyber attack, which takes your system down. What the cybersecurity task force is going to do is work only on the second.

So we already know that the United States is deep inside Russian networks so deep. And Putin knows as well in the United States. They've totally penetrating Russian networks. They are listening to everything that the Russians say. And I'm sure the other is true as well. But we just happen to know how deep inside Russian networks, U.S. cyberspies are already. So we're not going to stop cyber espionage. But what hopefully we are going to stop is preventing that first big step up.

Because, you know, the ransomware attack on colonial pipelines, that's into chill to everybody. You shut off the energy that 50% of the country needs. for a few days. Let's just step up that ladder. So that was the red flashing light here. We need to stop this now before we go much further up. If we can get to two countries

to say, we're going to continue to do all the things we do, we're going to spy, we're going to listen, we're going to eavesdrop, but we're not going to take down critical infrastructure, short of a war, short of an all-between between Russia and the United States, not going to happen, frankly.

So short of a war, we're saying, These targets are off the west. You don't touch ours. We're not touching yours. And then let's continue to have fun. That's what the summit was really about. So I think the proof, again, it would be fascinating, would be in the pudding. Do we see more of these attacks?

What are the nature of the attacks? What are the targets? That will be the clear sign as to whether there has been some repressional in this or, in fact, it's just back to the status quo. It's going to take months, though, Roger. Because the officials are going to sit there. They're going to be meetings after meetings after meetings. This is a painfully slow process. But I think what was encouraging to me was that they took that first step.

It's very pragmatic. And also Biden managed expectations. He walked out and they said, he said, look, you know, do you trust him? He took all that rhetoric out of it. And they asked him, is he optimistic? He said, no, I'm not optimistic. We'll see. We'll see. So he lowered expectations. A very, very smart thing to do, frankly.

You've been listening to a sample of the Monk members-only podcast. To access the rest of the episode, consider becoming a member. Membership is free and available at www.w monk debates.com. Once you've joined as a member, go to your membership profile to access the rest of this episode and all of our Monk members podcast. Thanks for listening. Thank you.