The Munk Debates Podcast - Munk Members-Only Pod: Episode 3

Episode Date: January 22, 2021

This is a sample of the Munk Members-Only Podcast. To access the full length episode consider becoming a Munk Member. Membership is free. Simply log on to www.munkdebates.com/membership to register. Under your membership profile page you will find a link to listen to the full length editions of Munk Members Podcast. The Munk Members Podcast provides a focused, half-hour masterclass on current events with Janice Gross Stein, the founding director of the Munk School of Global Affairs and bestselling author. Rudyard Griffiths, Chair of the Munk Debates, is the podcast moderator. Janice and Rudyard unpack the big issues in the news and drill down into the people, events and trends that are shaping our lives in this extraordinary moment. The full length episode digs into three big stories in the news this week — President Biden's Inauguration address; will his calls for national unity have any effect on America's polarized political institutions and discourse? — Biden's Keystone XL pipeline cancellation; what are the implications for Canada's energy dependent economy? Is a new national unity crisis in the making? — Canada's Governor General resigns; are governments appointing people for their own communications proposes as opposed what important institutions actually need in terms of executive leadership? We debate. If you like what the Munk Debates is all about consider becoming a Supporting Member. For as little as $9.99 monthly you receive unlimited access to our 10+ year library of great debates in HD video, a free Munk Debates book, monthly newsletter, ticketing privileges at our live events and a charitable tax receipt (for Canadian residents). To explore you Munk Membership options visit www.munkdebates.com/membership. This podcast is a project of the Munk Debates, a Canadian charitable organization dedicated to fostering civil and substantive public dialogue. More information at www.munkdebates.com.Become a Munk Donor ($50 annually) to get 72-hour advanced access to the full length editions of Friday Focus and Munk Dialogues. Go to www.munkdebates.com to sign up. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Hi, you're listening to a sample of the Monk members-only podcast. To subscribe to full episodes of the Monk members' podcast, please consider joining our community. It's free. All you have to do is log on to www.munkdebates.com, MUNK Debates.com. Sign up as a free member, and then go to your member profile to click on the links to access the full-length versions of all of our Monk members' podcasts. Thanks for listening. Hi, Monk members.

Welcome to this, our third episode in our Monk members only podcast. This is a half-hour program where I have the opportunity, the pleasure of connecting with Janice Gross Stein, the founding director of the Monk School of Global Affairs, one of Canada's most highly respected academics and thinkers on global relations, and a terrific friend of the Monk Debates community. Janice, great to have you back as our guide, our, our, our, Sherpa, so to speak, in these weekly tours that we do of current and global events. This is the highlight of my week. We're out here. So I'm delighted to be back.

Well, it has been yet another busy week, Janice. A lot of topics to us to move through. But as we pledge, promise our listeners here, we're really going to focus on what we think are the three important issues to understand about the last seven to ten days in order hopefully to get you thinking about the week to come. I've got to start with Biden's speech at the inauguration, Janice, it was a peon, a seemingly heartfelt appeal for unity. And I guess my question to you, and we can kind of get into it back and forth on this, because I have some views on this, it seemed like a stretch. It seemed like somehow, you know, out of touch with actually the reality of America today.

What is your view? I mean, is this all just dross and candy floss? Or is there something real here in these appeals to unity in an era of just acute polarization? You know, if it were dross and candy floss, I would be encouraged. But it's, first of all, real on Biden's part. He believes this. And this is going to be his mode of governing. So the question is how realistic is this? And let's talk about the, the fringe, first of all, that we saw, that highly radicalized militant group of people that we saw at the Capitol two and a half weeks ago, there is nothing that will persuade most of those people, the overwhelming majority of those people, and people who think like them, that this election was fair and free and that they need to stand down. There is only one recourse here. That's the law. And it is interesting, looking at Q&ON sites this past week, you see a sense of abject betrayal. Oh, my goodness, Trump was weak. He didn't stand up.

He betrayed us. So that's actually encouraging to see that kind of chatter. So that fringe are beyond politics, frankly, at this point. The next big chunk, reasonable people who otherwise believe this election was stolen because the president told them that it was stolen over and over. Can they be moved? And I think that's the target of these speeches. And from everything we see, a small number of them can. And you're seeing it in some of the Republican Congress people who were challenging the election and we're going to vote against certification. Now we are two weeks later.

They're moving across the aisle. There's a little bit of business as usual here. They know where their political bread is buttered, and so those people are beginning to move. How many of those does Biden split off, frankly? 30%. Well, that would be enormous, were he able to do that? And I think that's really the target here. But in order to do that, and here's, I think, the biggest crinch in all of this, and that's why he has the toughest road to climb. He was elected. The margin of difference for Biden were black voters and particularly black women voters. He has to deliver for them. Otherwise, there is no future past these four years. He absolutely must deliver for them. Many of these people that he's trying to reach in that

30% believe that the white Christian society in America is at risk. How do you deliver for both those communities at the same time? That's his big one. I guess what I would challenge what I'm hearing of you, Janice, is that yes, there is this speech the, you know, heartfelt. I agree with you. I think this is in his DNA to be bipartisan. But what happens next? A flurry of executive orders that roll back, you know, not just the Trump era, but roll onto that bipartisan consensus, or at least, I think, charge that bipartisan consensus. So they were sweeping, Janice. I mean, everything from rejoining the Paris Climate Accords to big steps on affirmative action, you know, the list went on and on. So it's kind of

like, you know, look at this puppet over here. I'm going to give you all this kind of soothing Prozac-laden, you know, talk about unity and Kumbaya and all of us getting along in. But, hey, don't watch this end over here where I'm just basically pursuing a relentlessly political, capital D democratic, you know, agenda. To me, there's a little bit of kind of too smart by half. Well, you put your finger on exactly the dilemma that he faces, Roger. It's what we were talking about just a moment ago.

He has a core constituency of party members, Congresspeople, and voters that he has to satisfy. That's what got him elected, frankly, and that's what got Democrats elected in a surprisingly disappointing performance, by the way, to Congress, which we haven't really talked about in this last election. So what are the two big ones? Affirmative action,

especially for the black community in the United States after black lives matters and climate change. If you actually look at most of those executive orders, they touched on one or the other of those two, plus the third one, immigration, which is an own goal that the Trump administration is going against system. Which is hugely polarizing. We know in American society, immigration is a third rail. It is the third rail, but it is hugely important for the future of the economy of the United States, just like it's usually important for the Canadian economy. That covered almost all the executive orders, frankly. And that's what we're going to expect from this administration.

The challenge becomes, how do you reassure those 30 million Trump voters, 30 of the 70? I would challenge you there. I would go beyond those Trump voters because you can look at how well the Republicans did in this last election in November, down-ballot victories in state capitals, big gains with minority voters. You know, you can make an argument that fundamentally, you know, take Trump out of the equation, America is a center-right country when it comes to a lot of just the fundamental things that motivate voters to the polls. And is there a risk here that the Biden administration, let's face it, they've got 24 months,

midterm elections in 24 months, it basically is the reality check. And what I see out of just the early days here is, you know, I see a party and I get it. They won. Hey, if you won, it's your opportunity. They are pursuing an agenda, a democratic agenda. And I just think that this politically is going to get a lot more divisive and a lot more high stakes maybe than they wish. And that's going to happen fast. I think you're right.

And I don't think they have 24 months. They've got 18 months. They may only, they may have, you know, they've got the first year, Roger Tim, ram that agenda through for their core constituency. That's all they have. Whatever Biden does not get done this next year, he's not going to get done in his presidency. And so that's why you're seeing this push. But there is a big problem, a big structural problem,

in the American electorate right now. And it is that division. And it's a bet. Both parties are making a bet, Rudyard, leaving aside the distorted vote in the gerrymandering in the electoral college where votes get. Some votes count a lot more than others.

But the big bet, what's that next generation down, the millennials and the exeter's and below? What are the big issues for them? In many ways, the pandemic has distorted voting. preferences in the United States. The experience in the United States of being locked down and being told to wear a mask is fundamentally different than it is in Canada. It is a violation of basic rights. It's a violation of the Constitution. It's an assault on my freedom. We don't really talk like that in Canada. But it has riled people up in a way that we haven't seen. And so when the

pandemic begins to calm down a little, when it begins to taper off, what's the bet among Hispanics who are a growing part of the population of voters in the United States? How important are economic issues and jobs? That's really the big bat between the two parties right now. And boy, whoever gets that bet right is going to shape American politics. You've been listening to a sample of the Monk members-only podcast. To access the rest of the episode, consider becoming a member. Membership is free and available at www.wunkdebates.com. Once you've joined as a member, go to your membership profile to access the rest of this episode

and all of our Monk members' podcasts. Thanks for listening.