The Munk Debates Podcast - Munk Members-Only Pod: Episode 38

Episode Date: September 24, 2021

This is a sample of the Munk Members-Only Podcast. The program provides listeners with a focused, half-hour masterclass on the big issues, events and trends driving news and current events. The show features Janice Gross Stein, the founding director of the Munk School of Global Affairs and bestselling author, in conversation with Rudyard Griffiths, Chair and moderator of the Munk Debates. This week's Munk Members podcast focuses on three stories in the news: Europe is in the news with historic elections taking place in Germany which portend a new and different future for the world's largest political union and France's Macron melts down over the new UK, US and Australia security pact. What do these two interconnected stories say about Europe's domestic politics and future as a unit of global power and influence?; China's central bank moves against cryptocurrencies suggesting a possible ban could be in the offing. Why is Beijing cracking down on the likes of Bitcoin? Will Western government's follow suit as domestic currencies come under more pressure as public debts reach new all time highs? And, how should we be interpreting the Canadian election? Does this week's inconclusive result set the country up for a period of instability or is it simply the reflection of Canada's new normal. To access the full length episode consider becoming a Munk Member. Membership is free. Simply log on to www.munkdebates.com/membership to register. Under your membership profile page you will find a link to listen to the full length editions of Munk Members Podcast. If you like what the Munk Debates is all about consider becoming a Supporting Member. For as little as $9.99 monthly you receive unlimited access to our 10+ year library of great debates in HD video, a free Munk Debates book, monthly newsletter, ticketing privileges at our live and online events and a charitable tax receipt (for Canadian residents). To explore you Munk Membership options visit www.munkdebates.com/membership. This podcast is a project of the Munk Debates, a Canadian charitable organization dedicated to fostering civil and substantive public dialogue. More information at www.munkdebates.com.Become a Munk Donor ($50 annually) to get 72-hour advanced access to the full length editions of Friday Focus and Munk Dialogues. Go to www.munkdebates.com to sign up. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Hi, Monk Podcast listeners. The following is a sample of the Monk members-only podcast. To access the full-length edition of this episode and all of our regular Monk members-only podcasts, go to our website, www.wmunkdebates.com, and register for membership. Membership is free, and it's available for you right now at www.munkdebates.com. Hope you enjoy the program. Hello, Monk members. Rudyard Griffiths here, your host and moderator. Welcome to this, our usual Friday, Monk members-only podcast. This is the weekly program where we dig into the big issues and ideas in the news,

hopefully leave you with some new analysis and insights. And to do this, we're so fortunate to be joined each week by Janice Gross Stein. She's the founding director of the Monk School of Global Affairs, best-selling author, and someone who I've always turned to to try to figure out what the heck has happened in the world as we see it today. Janice, it was so great to be in person with you last week and all of our monk members for the first ever live taping of this podcast. We're back in the studio this week.

But again, great to be in dialogue and conversation with you. Great to be with you, Richard. And I have to say, really terrific to see monk members in person. We have to figure out a way to do this again before it snows. Let's do it. figure that out. Well, talk about a deluge. In this case, a deluge of big, juicy stories for us to dive into. The first that I want to touch on Janice is your concerns over the last, really, number of programs about what's happening in Europe. And, you know, up to this point through COVID,

but even before, I think there was a sense that Europe had stabilized after its debt crisis brought on by the great financial crisis in the late part of the first decade of this century. But now you and others are starting to sense that there's something happening in Europe that we need to pay attention to. And I want to touch on the two big stories that are unfolding right now, the German election and Macron's kind of meltdown or melt up over this new Australia-US UK security pack. So explain how these two stories are interconnected and why we should be focusing on them. Let's talk a little bit about what is called a U.S. U.K. or a U.K.S.

But it is Britain and the United States. And what a cool move by the Brexiteer, Boris Johnson, to get in on this, to supply nuclear-powered. submarines to the Australians. Now, they're nuclear power. That does not mean they carry nuclear weapons. Let's make that clear right from the beginning. But this certainly is a big move in the Indo-Pacific. It is designed to counter China's growing Navy. But in order to do that, Australia had to get out of a prior contract with France. For $66 billion. That is not small change vouchers.

$66 billion. They broke the contract and Macron melted down. I'm not sure that. He exploded. Melted up. Melted up. He exploded in fury. And what did that language coming across the Atlantic sound like?

First of all, he recalled a French ambassador from Washington. Well, that's never happened. since the American Revolution, frankly. And then what we heard in a torrent was Les Anglosaxon, the Anglophones, who are once again deceiving allies. You know, the North Atlantic Alliance is worth nothing. This is the end of the alliance.

And we, the French, have to lead the European Union into a period of greater autonomy and greater sovereignty, which is something that we've been hearing from the French on and off since the goal. Now, what does this really tell us? He's not wrong, Roger. The United States has pivoted to the Pacific and to the Indo-Pacific. And Biden has signaling clearly to everybody.

Europe, it's nice to have known you. We really like you. But that's not where our future is. Our future is in the Pacific. The Middle East, you've caused a lot of travel over the last 20 years. We're done with you, folks, it is all about Asia and it's all about the Pacific. And that's where we're going to put our asset. So, Janice, is this a bit of a win for China in an interesting way? Because, you know,

it splinters the NATO alliance. There's a lot of talk about, in a sense, expanding NATO's mandate well beyond Europe to address the Chinese threat. China, as you know, has been investing heavily in Europe and Greece and Italy, really since the European debt crisis of a decade, a go. So yes, China will now face in Australia with non-nuclear weapon armed nuclear subs, but there is this fissure, this rhetoric. And I guess that's what I want to know for you, Janice, is this rhetoric or is this reality when Macron is saying, in effect, the transatlantic relationship is over. I mean, these are the types of words we expected from Trump, from a kind of an American isolationist clique that is growing in that country. But to hear the leader of

France articulate the same kind of nativist view is, I don't know, is it rhetoric or is it something more? It is astonishing, really, to hear this from Europeans as opposed to Trump and all the America firsters who said we are sick and tired of bearing the burden of European defense. That's the language we've heard forever. And Canadians have been at the brunt of that one, too, and rightly so. to some degree. But this brings out into the open, long, simmering tensions, frankly, Roger.

So it's not rhetoric. But is it real? No. For it to be real, Macron would have to have the capacity to persuade Germany, whose largest trading partner is China, not the United States,

and other smaller European powers to really invest significantly in defense. and to up their game. I think the chance of that is so low that even yesterday, as we were talking about this, Biden and Macron were on the phone. Biden apologized.

Macron's sending back his ambassador, and they issued a kind of mealy-mouthed communique about how they were going to work together. So what's real here? What's real is the United States, as always, is the power that. matters. China is the power that matters. There is a new game, and the Europeans are frankly bystanders, no matter what else we want to say, but they are not players on global security

issues. So, Jess, let's connect this to the German elections, because do those elections help us understand the trajectory intentions in Europe right now? Do they open the way for a new sense of kind of urgency with Merkel's departure, or maybe a role finally where Macron and France steps forward, or instead is it maybe more of a glass half empty Europe that emerges after these German elections in the absence of Merkel's kind of passion and just steady, solid, unbreakable support for union. I think these are bumpy times for Europe ahead.

You know, it is a lackluster campaign in Germany, Roger. We complained about the campaign in this country. It is a lackluster campaign. And it's going to be one coalition or the other. We'll talk about it after the election is over. But there is a bigger picture here. Look under the hood, Richard, and you will find a German economy in trouble. Contrary to all the images we have of Germany as the great,

economic superpower of Europe. It's in trouble for several interesting reasons. It made very heavy investments in heavy industry. The Chinese are catching up and are no longer going to import from Germany over the next 10 years what they've historically imported over the last 15. Germany has made almost no investments in the digital economy. Name me one global German firm, digital firm, that is a global player. You're going to have to work hard at that in order to find one. And here's the third one. Germany has not reformed its pension plan,

and it has an aging population. So if you look under the hood of the vaunted German economy, there are some really serious obstacles that had for Germany to continue to play its role as the economic superpower of Europe, which is what's, in a sense, been the sinews of what's held Europe together through the global financial crisis and through COVID. You have a weaker Germany and you have a frustrated France is the only way I can describe it,

a France that has always had ambitions and a sense of its own destiny that is not matched by its material capabilities to deliver. this is not a recipe for a strong European voice on global security issues. So in our remaining moments in this segment, you know, bring this back to Canada. So what does this mean in a sense? We've seen Canada now excluded from the U.S. UK, Australia's security pact. We see Europe, as you've just outlined, potentially entering a kind of rough patch, a bumpy period, where Canada may not have as reliable or coherent a partner in Europe as we had in Europe led by Angela Merkel. So, you know, how do we position ourselves? What are the risks here that

Canada courts in this, again, increasingly global international order shaped by what is now obvious, a power blocks, a set of binary stakes and consequences. competitions between China and the United States. This is, as you and I have been saying, a much tougher world for Canada going forward. And that's why I think we are both hoping for a wake-up call. Immediately on the table, when you get the Australians, the Brits and the U.S., negotiating behind the back of France,

frankly stabbing France in the back. You know, France did not get, And Biden shuffled this off and said, well, it was up to Australia to tell the French that they were breaking the deal. But those, they were all together at a summit meeting. The Aussies, the Brits, and the Americans met together on the sidelines, sealed the deal and said nothing to the French, nor did they say anything to us. Now, our intelligence comes largely from something called Five Eyes, All Anglo-Sac. All Anglo-Saxons, by the way, if you're the French and you want to build on this. Who's in the Five Eyes?

The United States is the leader, Britain, Australia, New Zealand, and Canada. That is a small select group of five countries who share intelligence with each other in a much more comprehensive way than we do with NATO. And in Canada, we are huge consumers of that intelligence. Three of those got together. ain't the deal. For submarines, it's true, but nevertheless did it without our being fully engaged and fully aware and fully consulted.

That is just, we should be as upset, chagrined, worried, and concerned as the French were. Fascinating stuff, Janice. I so enjoy these, called it multi-variable, multifaceted conversations with you. So let's take a break and we're going to come back after. a short announcement here about the monk debates and monk membership with our second topic, one that our, I think listeners are going to be as fascinated with as I am as we record this show. Back in a moment. You've been listening to a sample of the monk members only podcast. To access the

rest of the episode, consider becoming a member. Membership is free and available at www. monk debates.com. Once you've joined as a member, go to your membership profile to access the rest of this episode and all of our monk members podcast. Thanks for listening.