The Munk Debates Podcast - Munk Members-Only Pod: Episode 43

Episode Date: October 29, 2021

This is a sample of the Munk Members-Only Podcast. The program provides listeners with a focused, half-hour masterclass on the big issues, events and trends driving news and current events. The show features Janice Gross Stein, the founding director of the Munk School of Global Affairs and bestselling author, in conversation with Rudyard Griffiths, Chair and moderator of the Munk Debates. This week's Munk Members podcast explores three topics in the news. First, Joe Biden lays his presidency on the line to try and secure the support necessary in his own party to pass a $1.7 trillion human and physical infrastructure bill. What is at sake here for American politics, equity and the economy? Next up on the program Janice and Rudyard discuss the COP26 meeting and how the contest between democracies and authoritarian regimes are threatening to derail meaningful action on climate change. Is it time for carbon tariffs to push back against countries that are not cutting emissions fast enough? And finally, Canada has new defence and foreign affairs ministers. What do these appointments say about the future of these two important portfolios? To access the full length episode consider becoming a Munk Member. Membership is free. Simply log on to www.munkdebates.com/membership to register. Under your membership profile page you will find a link to listen to the full length editions of Munk Members Podcast. If you like what the Munk Debates is all about consider becoming a Supporting Member. For as little as $9.99 monthly you receive unlimited access to our 10+ year library of great debates in HD video, a free Munk Debates book, monthly newsletter, ticketing privileges at our live and online events and a charitable tax receipt (for Canadian residents). To explore you Munk Membership options visit www.munkdebates.com/membership. This podcast is a project of the Munk Debates, a Canadian charitable organization dedicated to fostering civil and substantive public dialogue. More information at www.munkdebates.com.Become a Munk Donor ($50 annually) to get 72-hour advanced access to the full length editions of Friday Focus and Munk Dialogues. Go to www.munkdebates.com to sign up. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Hi, Monk podcast listeners. The following is a sample of the Monk members-only podcast. To access the full-length edition of this episode and all of our regular Monk members-only podcasts, go to our website, www.com, and register for membership. Membership is free, and it's available for you right now at www. Monk Debates.com. Hope you enjoy the program. Hello, Monk members. Rudyard Griffiths here, your host and moderator. Welcome to this, This is our regular Monk members-only podcast. This is our regular Friday program where we focus on the big issues and ideas shaping the news. We hopefully leave you with some new analysis and insights, and we're extremely fortunate, as always, to have as our guest and lead discussant, Janice Gross Stein.

She's the founding director of the Monk School of Global Affairs and internationally acclaimed author and scholar, and she's all ours for the next 30 minutes. Janice, great to be in dialogue with you. And some big stories to talk about this week, Roger, with our monk members. Absolutely. We promise this week we are going to get through three topics. Usually we get too interested in the top one or two. And we've been stretching the show a little bit. So I promise this week we're going to do it in half an hour. And we're going to do three topics.

So here we go. Number one, Janice, let's have you reflect on Joe Biden leaving now for this. multi-day international kind of heads of state, COP 26 trip. As he departs on Air Force One, his major domestic agenda is still hanging in the balance in Congress and in the Senate. What's at stake here in terms of the Biden presidency and this legislation that is before both houses to massively reinvest in America's physical, and human infrastructure. Richard, I try not to engage in hyperbole, but I really think that not only his presidency at stake,

as he says, it is, but the future trajectory of American democracy is at stake. This is the biggest piece of domestic legislation. It is investments in three critical areas. First of all, the physical infrastructure of the United States with all the spin-off benefits that come from a really significant investment in infrastructure, which they haven't had. Secondly, what survived, the cutthroat legislative process is significant climate change policies. About in the bill, separate from the infrastructure investment, about a third will be investment in

climate change. That is a major change for the United States. Most climate change investment has come at the state level in the United States, not at the federal level. That's a big change. And then the final piece, and in some ways I think this is the most important one, they are going to invest in child care in expanding some health care benefits. That's the part that got cut the most and the progressive wing of the Democratic Party is disappointed. But I look at the glass that's half full, not half the empty. Let's call it like it is, Rudyard. The United States invests least of all democratic developed societies in its social supports.

And if Biden can get this by and it hangs on a knife edge, it will be, I think, really important to swing voters, not only in 2022, but more important, 2024, because it is a demonstration that a democracy as fragile, as polarized as the United States is, can actually deliver something. Yeah. So let's talk about that democracy piece in a moment. But I think, well, two things seem to be happening right now, which is, A, can this legislation actually pass? You know, now the progressives have kind of fired up their rhetorical blasters and are going after the administration on the basis that it's not enough. It's too much of a compromise. And then you have the other wing of the Democratic Party, the Democrats who have to win reelection in red states saying, whoa, even this is

too much. I think what I take away from this is that it's not a silver bullet, unfortunately. there's two big problems. One, there's really no credible tax plan to subsidize this spending in an affordable and sustainable way over time. They've not repealed the Trump Euro tax cuts. They've exempted anyone over, anyone under $400,000 a year, U.S. in income. That's 95% of all income taxpayers. And even on the billionaire tax cut, the so-called Elon Musk tax, sorry, tax raise, they are running into problems with Mansion and a few others of the Democratic Senate leadership. So I look at this and I think, you know, again, important policies, vital in many ways to a fair, more equitable and as you say, maybe less populist, less fractured America. but can they pay for it in a sustainable fashion over time to allow these programs to really take root? And secondly, what happens, Janice, in, you know, a year from now, when there's midterm elections, they lose control of the House.

What if 2024 they lose control of the presidency? All this legislation can be undone by future government. There's nothing here that is permanent. And as we just saw the whole fight over Obamacare under the Trump era, there are all kinds of ways that a future. Republican administration could stymie these programs, could starve them, could it make difficult for states to implement. So I guess I want to hear a bit more from you as to how you think this legislation is actually going to play out in the short term.

And then what are its prospects over the long term to survive this divided, polarized America that not just the Biden administration faces, but any future administration. I think those are great questions. Roger, let's talk about the short. game and slightly longer than short game to get through what I think are than our critical three or four years ahead of us. So getting that we can, you and I can agree that this is hanging by a knife sedge. It is, but my sense is that we're getting, we're in the last face of this right now. There's a lot of show bargaining. There's a lot of posturing.

but the president seemed to feel yesterday before he left, and he's experienced, and his team has experienced, that an agreement is within sight, despite these tendencies that you've seen. They're going into the all-nighters right now, and everybody's bargaining for that last bit of advantage. The second point I want to make is, let's think about what happens if this fails,

if it doesn't pass. There is a huge, huge problem. problem here for any future president, you can't get anything through Congress. It is so dysfunctional. With your own party. It's not even the other party that you can't get it through. It's your own party. That's right. Wow. And then you've got to say to yourself, has the United States ceased to be a functioning democracy, frankly? Are we at the knife edge here? Right? And that's why these stakes are so big. And thirdly, let's be blunt here. Donald Trump is overwhelmingly likely,

and we're three years out, and it's way too early to talk about this, and so much can happen and all of that. But he is overwhelmingly likely right now if the Republican nomination, you know, if the convention was tomorrow, Donald Trump would have that nomination. And given what we know,

if he is re-elected as president of the United States, I don't think it's an exaggeration to say democracy in the United States will be hanging by threat. This is clearly somebody who does not believe in a rules-based system that limits power. So the states are just enormous. So Biden and his people have to get to 2025.

That's where we have to get to. And I think a lot of the strategy is crafted to do that to show those swing voters, some of them, frankly, in Republicans, in states, there is advantage for you in this. You are going to get something. What we saw happen with Obamacare is just that story.

Republicans fought it to the end. But when voters spoke, they said, no, we don't want this taken away. We like it. We've gotten used to it. We want it. Don't touch it. Not dissimilar from Medicare in this country.

I think this is a critical moment in the history of democracy in the United States. And by the way, let's not even think about what happens if the United States goes down the wrong path, what that means for democracies all over the world. And what it means for Canada. Well, look, when we come back from this break, let's talk about the other big issue that kicks off

just in a matter of a few days, COP 26. When we come back from this break, we'll dig into it with you, our Monk membership. You've been listening to a sample of the Monk Members Only podcast. To access the rest of the episode, consider becoming a member. Membership is free and available at www.wunkdebates.com. Once you've joined as a member, go to your membership profile to access the rest of this episode and all of our Monk members podcast.

Thanks for listening.