The Munk Debates Podcast - Munk Members-Only Pod: Episode 45

Episode Date: November 12, 2021

This is a sample of the Munk Members-Only Podcast. The program provides listeners with a focused, half-hour masterclass on the big issues, events and trends driving news and current events. The show features Janice Gross Stein, the founding director of the Munk School of Global Affairs and bestselling author, in conversation with Rudyard Griffiths, Chair and moderator of the Munk Debates. This week's Munk Members podcast focuses on three stories in the news. First, Europe is facing a new border crisis orchestrated by the government of Belarus busing migrants to its borders with Poland and Lithuania. Russia is being blamed for fuelling the crisis as it conducts bomber sorties over Belarus in support of President Lukashenko. What are the origins of this crisis? Why is likely to happen next? And why is Russia seemingly so bent on destabilizing Europe? Second, President Xi's status as China's supreme leader was further burnished this week with the passage of a “historical resolution” praising his “decisive significance” in the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. This has only happened three other times in the 100 years of the Chinese Communist Party with similar honours conferred on Mao and Deng. What does this mostly ritualistic event signify about Xi's leadership and the future direction of China at home and abroad? And finally, the US government reported the highest monthly inflation in more than thirty years this week. How is higher, sustained inflation likely to play out politically? Who are the political winners and losers in a high inflation world? To access the full length episode consider becoming a Munk Member. Membership is free. Simply log on to www.munkdebates.com/membership to register. Under your membership profile page you will find a link to listen to the full length editions of Munk Members Podcast. If you like what the Munk Debates is all about consider becoming a Supporting Member. For as little as $9.99 monthly you receive unlimited access to our 10+ year library of great debates in HD video, a free Munk Debates book, monthly newsletter, ticketing privileges at our live and online events and a charitable tax receipt (for Canadian residents). To explore you Munk Membership options visit www.munkdebates.com/membership. This podcast is a project of the Munk Debates, a Canadian charitable organization dedicated to fostering civil and substantive public dialogue. More information at www.munkdebates.com.Become a Munk Donor ($50 annually) to get 72-hour advanced access to the full length editions of Friday Focus and Munk Dialogues. Go to www.munkdebates.com to sign up. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Hi, Monk podcast listeners. The following is a sample of the Monk members-only podcast. To access the full-length edition of this episode and all of our regular Monk members-only podcasts, go to our website, www.com, and register for membership. Membership is free, and it's available for you right now at www. Monk Debates.com. Hope you enjoy the program. Hello, Monk members. Roger Griffiths here, your host and moderator. Welcome to this. regular Monk members-only podcast. This is the weekly program where we dig into the big issues and ideas in the news, hopefully leaving you with some new analysis and insights. As our guest, every week, we're so fortunate to have Janice Gross Stein. She's the founding director of the

Monk School of Global Affairs, an internationally renowned author and scholar, and she's all ours for this extended version of the Monk members podcast. And Janice, I say extended because we have three topics. I could have chosen half a dozen or more this week, but three really meaty, substantial topics that I want to dig in with you on this episode. And I just maybe forewarn our members here. We're going to go a little bit over our regular 30-minute mark. I promise not too much, but the content's too important. And I think your analysis and insights are too valuable for us to waste this opportunity. So the first topic I want us to to discuss is what we're seeing on the borders of Belarus, Poland, and Lithuania,

where, just to remind listeners, we're seeing, I think, a somewhat unprecedented situation where the government of Belarus is encouraging migrants to fly in to Minsk, primarily from the Middle East, Iraq and other countries, then busing them to the borders of Poland. Poland and Lithuania, the borders of the European community, and putting their security services behind these migrants, now numbering in the thousands, as the migrants face off against barbed wire fences and other thousands of border security officials, the Polish army, sitting on the European frontier. behind all this, clearly, Janice, and correct me if I'm wrong, is the hand of Vladimir Putin,

who seems to be not only toying with Europe over its growing energy crisis in terms of providing natural gas and energy to supply Europe's economies, he is now, in a sense, weaponizing migrants through his, I don't know, what would you call it, his sex? satellite state, his ally, Belarus, to create, I believe, a political crisis inside Europe that ferments right-wing populism and Europe's historic fear of uncontrolled migration. So I want to hear you unpack this because I think this is a kind of, I don't know, what do you call it? Is Russia and Europe in a state of unconventional warfare? So this is really a signal moment in Europe.

And let me just talk about three contradictions here, Richard, which makes this absolutely awful, frankly, for Europe. The first is, and your words are absolutely correct, Lukashenko, the president of Belarus, allegedly stole an election. As a result, the European Union sanctioned him, and he has weaponized immigrants. This is the first time we really see in Europe a deliberate strategy of using immigrants as weapons. So he has put out invitations to governments in the Middle East. fly your immigrants to Minsk, the capital of Belarus.

You get four free nights in a hotel. Then we're going to drive you to the border, and you're going to be stuck, as you put in Richard, with the Belarusian army behind them and the Polish army in front of them. This is a diabolical strategy. He has found the weak point of the European Union. Let's go to contradiction number two. Poland is in disrepute with the European Union.

European Union because it has manipulated its judiciary. There is a right-wing government, and the European Union has made it clear and is on the verge of imposing of denying Poland European Union funds because it has effectively destroyed the independence of the Polish judiciary. But, oh, wait a minute. There is a wake-up call now in Brussels. Poland is a member of NATO. NATO officials are looking at this and saying,

we are in a new form in the use this word, Roger, hybrid warfare. Lukashenko, with Putin behind, have invented yet another form of diabolically clever warfare. And so you have the European Union now, and NATO, more importantly, NATO, lining up behind the government of Poland. Forget that of this stuff for now. You know, the sanctity of Polish frontiers are at stake, and they are now lining up in support of a government that even a month ago, they were engaged, frankly, in trying to reform.

Thirdly, for polls, this is a moment which, in domestic politics, where the Polish government, which is fundamentally a right-wing government, and I think it's playing with fire, is exploiting this, Rudyard, to stoke fear of immigrants. There are right-wing demonstrations in Warsaw that are larger and larger and larger. It emphasizes fear of foreigners, and it actually, and here's the irony, and here's the third contradiction. And this one, Vladimir Putin,

live to regret. A big theme of those big demonstrations in Poland is, we polls, we understand, we have to defend our frontier. We remember when the Russians and the Germans carved up Poland and we're not going to permit this to happen again. So you think about this, we have Iraqi Kurds dying in this no man's land. The winter is coming, they are freezing to death, this strikes at the core of what the European Union stands for, but NATO, so that's the European Union voice, but NATO and all the members of the European Union virtually all belong to NATO, are ratcheting up the tension now in response to a provocation. They have almost no capacity to deal with because they've never thought about it.

So that's what I want to go with you next because if you're sitting there, as a European security official looking at this situation. And you're adding to, as you say, the weaponization of migrants as a new kind of hybrid war tactic with, let's talk about the other tactics, the little green men that took over Crimea, the little green men who are sitting with artillery positions across the border from the Ukraine to control the Dombas region and ensure that that is not. not reintegrated into the Ukraine. You have Putin openly funding the far-right populist authoritarian parties in Europe, seemingly with impunity. And then layer over that, over the last number of weeks, he is toying almost a cat with a mouse of Europe over its gas and energy supplies, reversing pipelines, turning them back on, rerouting gas.

I mean, what does Europe do? Because I'm kind of perplexed as to what Putin actually wants. I mean, normally, Janice, when you get into these types of situations, isn't there a set of strategic objectives that either side can grope towards to find some kind of reconciliation, some new status quo. Am I wrong to think that there's a bid here? There's an offer somewhere that Putin wants. I don't know what it is.

The recognition of Crimea? No. NATO declaring forever that it will never allow the Ukraine to become a member. Is there a deal to be had here? Or is this something more sinister? Is this a concerted long-term effort on the part of a kind of crypto-fascist, Russia to permanently undermine and erode Europe as a alternative model for civilization in the 21st century? I mean, is it that existential? It is certainly puzzling as to what Vladimir Putin

really wants out of this. And so let me just disagree with you a little bit here, Roger. I'm not convinced that Vladimir Putin started this. You know, there's a long, history of allies of the United States and allies of the of Russia, pulling big powers into a situation, which if it were up to them, they would not find themselves in. But just on that point, I mean, Russia flew a sortie of bombers over Belarus this week while this crisis is going on. To me, that is a pretty clear demonstration that Russia likes what's happening. It's showing to NATO, guess what? We have capacity, force projection.

We are right here up at your frontier. I don't know. Would Lishishchenko, who is so dependent on Moscow and Vladimir Putin for his legitimacy, as you say, he stumbled through these elections, oppressing and torturing hundreds, if not thousands of his fellow citizens? I don't know, Janice. I think Russia is completely on board. I think it's a big difference here, Roger, between Russia, getting on board once Lukashenko is in the sight lines now of NATO and starting this.

I think it was Lukashenko who started this. So what does he want? Okay, let's start there. It's very clear what Lukashenko wants. Sanctions. He wants the sanctions out. He wants an end to the sanctions. And he found the pressure point. That's why I used the world diabolical. Diabolical to me means evil and clever. And that's what the strategy is. He found that pressure point and ratcheted up the tensions. And in fact, now the European Union finds itself between a rock and a hard place. It's threatening to further increase the sanctions against Belarus, which will only make this worse.

Now, where does Vladimir Putin find himself? And this is such a common pattern over the years. That's why small allies are very dangerous friends to have. He has Lucaso go out there. and all of a sudden his credibility is on the line. He's always been afraid of NATO pushing up against his borders. That's a big part of the explanation of what happens in Ukraine. Lukashenko is vulnerable.

He does exactly what you said. He flies airplanes, cost-free. He flies airplanes. What could be less relevant than an airplane sortie over the border? but it's a signal. Don't mess with my guy here because you'll have me to deal with. Now, at the same time, Angela Merkel has called him two days running and is likely to call him today too.

She's so alarmed by what's happening. And what's the message back from Vladimir Putin? Don't talk to me. Talk to Lukashenko. But that's exactly where the European Union won't go. They won't talk to Lukashenko. So let's be honest. This strategy has put the European Union in a box, in a terrible box, with no clear way out.

Well, and I think the terrible box, just how diabolical it is, we need to understand it's not just a box of insecurity at the border. These migrants are chanting, Germany, Germany, Germany. This is kind of weaponized content that filters through social media and the broader media into the, the publics of Germany, France, Austria. This is, again, as we talked in the show, this is catnip for populace. Putin is, again, diabolically triangulating here a kind of harder, more kinetic tactical strategy

with migrants getting pushed to the border with a soft war disinformation polarization polarization strategy that these migrants are then feeding inside Europe, which represents to be a direct assault or attack on the European mainstream establishment, the Angola Merkels of this world. So what does Europe do, Janice? I mean, do they just sit back and take this? Because it's more than just a border crisis. This is, again, an attempt to recharge and refuel populist anti-immigrant leaders.

in Europe who frankly had not been having a great COVID, okay? Frankly, they had been a bit on their back feet. Now Putin is re-injecting them and their movements. There's an election coming up in France, as we know, that migrants and immigration and Islam is going to be a centerpiece, like it or not. So what does Europe do? Do they just sit back and take this? It seems to me that they can't.

There's too much at stake here. It's not just the border. It's their own domestic policy. It absolutely is. It absolutely is. And that's why I watched those demonstrations in Warsaw. They are now fodder for, frankly, a crypto-fascist right-wing movement in Poland that will grow and expand, but not only for Poland, in Germany, the AFD, the right-wing, crypto-fascist Party in Germany. Right, Marie-Lapan in France. Well, you know, and this is the big nightmare for your, but what does it do about it?

So, and it shows you how trapped, frankly, Europe is. So let me just say, oh, right, they don't have any good alternatives here. They don't have any. So what are they talking about right now? Within the European Union, they're going to sanction the airlines. The, you know, that flew these refugees to Belarus, and they're going to increase premium for the airlines. Well, frankly, good luck.

folks, right? Secondly, that's a kind of second order remedy. We don't have journalists yet on the border, but there's only a question of time until the Polish government allows a journalist, and there will be a second picture of a little child and a rocky child for freezing to death. Think what that will do to inflame public opinion on the other side in Europe. So let's be honest, here now, Lukashenko and Putin hold the cards. And Europe has trapped you. So then does Europe just have to say, look, sanctions are off, Belarus. I mean, we're sorry for the people who struggled for democracy in Belarus and who, you know, suffered under Lyshenko's reaction to his failed re-election bid and his now kind of authoritarian grab for power.

but we have bigger problems here in Europe, so the sanctions are coming off. Well, you know, I think this is, that's why I think this is a signal moment. Just to take this up just one more level, Roger. You know, the Democratic West is. I don't know if I can handle that, James. It's a really bad moment, frankly, for Western democracies in Europe. Western democracies led by the United States. For the last 20 years, have you sanctions.

as a tool to deal with situations where war is not an option, but the situation is intolerable. And they've used it against governments. They've used it against Iran. They've used it a part of that against Iraq. And why could they do that, Roger? They could do that because the United States is the financial hub through which all financial transactions go. So you don't only sanction the government, you have secondary sanctions, any business that deals with that government. And because of a You know, something that most of our listeners won't have had direct contact with called SWIFT, which is the, right, which is the codes for transferring money within the banking system. The United States has tremendous leverage.

What's happening here is the first real challenge to sanctions as an instrument for achieving your policy objectives, and look at it. Lukashenko has found the weak point right here and further increasing sanctions against Lukashenko will simply encourage him to open up his borders and move more people to the country. So what about this, Janice? I know we're going long in time here, but this is important. What about cyber?

What about a concerted cyber strike against Belarus to, again, send a clear message that there will be consequences for these actions? non-kinetic, it sends the message and the Belarusian government pays a price, a real price for what it's doing. The only problem with that is Biden and the head of the CIA and his national security advisor are involved in detailed discussions with the Russian government on how they're going to work to pull back Russian ransomware and cyber. attacks. So look at our government in Newfoundland, whose healthcare system, by the way, is still

under attack, and likely we know where these are rogue Russians that are making millions and millions of dollars from these kinds of cyber attacks. So think about the irony of this one, Rudyard. You're sending your top people to Moscow directly to talk to Putin about pulling back from these kinds of ransomware and cyber attacks. And then you go ahead and you launch a crippling cyber strike against Lukashenko. But, Jenice, as you say, if he gets away with this, it's more than just this instant. You just said, it's undermining the entire sanctions mechanism, which has been critical to, frankly, preventing a lot of kinetic warfare, to preventing an escalation ladder that moves up.

So there's a lot at stake here. And I just, again, I just worry about this passivity of our democratic culture. cultures and the extent to which we're getting bloodied in the nose, punched in the head, and we're like, oh, okay, you know, I guess you're right. We're sorry. Sanctions off and we'll kick the can down the road because that's the metaphor for everything. It's the metaphor for our economies. It's the metaphor for our security.

What we can do today, let's put off to tomorrow. That should be the motto of the European community. Well, here's the bigger picture, Radyard. I think the free, unconstrained use of sanctions by the United States has run its course. And why is it run its course? We should come back and talk about this another week. Why is it run its course? Because governments that are on the other side of the argument are recognizing that they are vulnerable

because the United States is the central financial hub. So China creates a new hub and new ways of going around these sanctions so the United States can no longer exercise this kind of leave. So I will put another way to you right here. We have to get over our addiction to sanctions. All right? It seemed like a free lunch, but it wasn't. What's the deal here? The only possible deal here is a pulling back of NATO to say Belarus and Ukraine.

will never become members of NATO because it is in nobody's interest to push out NATO right up against Russia. That feels like a provocation to Vladimir Putin. That is not the deal that was made

when the Berlin Wall fell and there is an ongoing sense of betrayal. What am I really saying? There is a limit to how far the Democratic West can push even in Europe. And this is a moment that's clarifying, frankly. Wow. Well, this has been a clarifying discussion. When we come back from this break,

we're going to talk about big developments this week in China. What do they mean for Beijing, the future trajectory of the so-called Middle Kingdom, at home and abroad. We'll have that discussion for you next after this short break. You've been listening to a sample of the Monk Members Only podcast. To access the rest of the episode, consider becoming a member. Membership is free and available at www. Wunkdebates.com. Once you've joined as a member, go to your membership profile to access the rest of this episode and all of our Monk members podcast. Thanks for listening.