The Munk Debates Podcast - Munk Members-Only Pod: Episode 48

Episode Date: December 3, 2021

This is a sample of the Munk Members-Only Podcast. The program provides listeners with a focused, half-hour masterclass on the big issues, events and trends driving news and current events. The show features Janice Gross Stein, the founding director of the Munk School of Global Affairs and bestselling author, in conversation with Rudyard Griffiths, Chair and moderator of the Munk Debates. This week's Munk Members' only podcast explores three issues in the news. First, while no progress was made when Russia's foreign minister and the U.S. Secretary of State met this week, are the terms of a “deal” to avoid military conflict in Ukraine emerging? What could de-escalation look like? And who needs to do want to make this happen? Second, Afghanistan's humanitarian crisis is going from bad to worse with over 20 million people now at risk of acute food insecurity. Why is this happening? Will the West standby with tens of thousands of lives, including children's, at stake? And, finally, Israel and Iran are upping cyber attacks on each others' civilian populations. What precedents are being set with these attacks? And what ultimately is at risk as state actors increasingly use their cyber arsenals to wage psychological warfare on each other civil institutions and infrastructure? To access the full length episode consider becoming a Munk Member. Membership is free. Simply log on to www.munkdebates.com/membership to register. Under your membership profile page you will find a link to listen to the full length editions of Munk Members Podcast. If you like what the Munk Debates is all about consider becoming a Supporting Member. For as little as $9.99 monthly you receive unlimited access to our 10+ year library of great debates in HD video, a free Munk Debates book, monthly newsletter, ticketing privileges at our live and online events and a charitable tax receipt (for Canadian residents). To explore you Munk Membership options visit www.munkdebates.com/membership. This podcast is a project of the Munk Debates, a Canadian charitable organization dedicated to fostering civil and substantive public dialogue. More information at www.munkdebates.com.Become a Munk Donor ($50 annually) to get 72-hour advanced access to the full length editions of Friday Focus and Munk Dialogues. Go to www.munkdebates.com to sign up. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Hi, Monk Podcast listeners. The following is a sample of the Monk members-only podcast. To access the full-length edition of this episode and all of our regular Monk members-only podcasts, go to our website, www.W. Monkdebates.com and register for membership. Membership is free, and it's available for you right now at www.munkdebates.com. Hope you enjoy the program. Hello, Monk members. Rudyard Griffiths here, the host and moderator of the Monk Debates. Welcome to this, our regular Friday, Monk members-only podcast, where we dig into the big issues and ideas driving the news. And each week we do this with Janice Gross Stein. She's the founding director, the Monk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy at the University of Toronto, an internationally acclaimed author and scholar. And she's all ours for the next half hour. Janice, great to be in dialogue with you. And great to be here with you, Richard. And we have had had another challenge.

challenging week. We just don't seem to get that quiet week. That's right. Now, disclaimer on the show, we are going to skip any discussion of Omnicon variants this week because I think you and I both agree. It's too early, really to understand the potentially profound or far ranging effects or not of this variance. So we're going to leave that to another week to instead dig into three juicy topics that we think were all better off for doing some thinking on. And the first Janice has to be, I guess, what could only be considered a kind of a worsening of the Russia-U.S. dialogue around the future of Ukraine. There was a meeting this week of Blanken, the Secretary of State, the U.S. Secretary of State with Lavrov, the longstanding and pugnacious foreign affairs minister of Russia. Needless to say, I always love these diplomatic meetings where they come out and they have these kind of. buy words or something that clearly didn't go very well. A candid discussion. Frank remarks. What was your takeaway from that meeting? Janist? Is it bringing us closer possibly to some kind of understanding about the terms through which Russia and the United States can disengage

over conflict over the Ukraine? Or is this another sign that we are in a precarious moment when it comes to security in Europe? Let's get your take. think we are in a precarious moment, and you're right, that meeting only lasted 30 minutes. That's usually a sign that not much got done in that meeting. But there were important signals during the week, which offers a way forward. And let me just talk about two of them.

First, Vladimir Putin absolutely put a card on the table for the first time since this mobilization began. He said explicitly, what is required to settle this issue is a secure and explicit guarantee that Ukraine will not be offered membership in NATO. For him, the real issue, he will not tolerate NATO pushing up against the borders of Russia. It's the first time he's actually set it. explicitly and it is therefore an invitation to negotiate. Lincoln said not in that meeting with Favrov, but said explicitly, we need a diplomatic

solution to this crisis. There cannot be a military solution. And interestingly enough, said if Russia moves forward and engages in any kind of military activity, there will be severe economic consequences. So there is a shifting of ground this week, Roger. The savvy people are getting the signals. There has to be a political resolution to this. Now, this is a nightmare for the president of Ukraine, Zelensky.

We're back to an old script here. The big powers get together, strike a deal over the head of the local president. This is not a new story. We saw it happen in Afghanistan. and it sets up all kinds of a long belt in Kiev. But Janice, I mean, isn't this a deal worth doing? I mean, did the United States really ever have an attention of allowing the Ukraine to join as a full member of NATO? I would suggest no.

I mean, the Russians made, I thought, a good point this week, that conventional cruise missiles, NATO cruise missiles staged in the Ukraine could reach Moscow in six to seven minutes. I mean, as you've described on another program that we had when we're discussing this issue, I mean, this is in some ways, there's analogs here of the Cuban missile crisis, but in reverse, the proximity of a peer military competitor right up against your borders within striking distance of your capital. Just suggests to me that the Russian demand, well, to say, highly, highly inconvenient for the Ukrainians and creating all kinds of insecurity for them, which I'm sensitive to. But nonetheless, you know, doesn't Russia have an argument here that let's de-escalate this? Let's just say what we always knew that Ukraine will never be part of NATO.

It's just it's not going to happen. I couldn't agree with you more, Roger. These are the hard facts of great power politics. And here's the encouraging part of the story. The Russians and the United States know these rules and know how to play by these rules. Chinese don't yet. I actually want to draw the attention of our listeners, Roger, to some really intelligent comments that the new chief of the Canadian defense staff, Wayne Eyre, made in Kiev.

And he said just what you said. He said there is no military solution to this. conflict, we will not be sending additional troops to Ukraine. He was explicit because it is very likely they would be seen as provocative. A move like that could lead to escalation rather than any kind of resolution. And here is our top general in Ukraine saying explicitly we need a diplomatic solution to this crisis. So I think there is grounds here for some very cautious optimism that all the major players, and Canada, believe it or not, is a major player in this one.

We are a major player because we have the largest Ukrainian, Canadian diaspora, somewhere diaspora, many are Canadian citizens in the world, lives in Canada. We are providing military assistance to the Ukrainians. Next to the United States, this is actually a dispute where Canada punches above its weight, all the more important to pay attention to what Wienier said. But the settling of this dispute, it's going to happen between Washington and Moscow. And I mean, I guess what are the Americans trying to do here? Because if I wanted to be cynical, I would say that they are using Russia

as a foil to try to herd the Europeans and especially the somewhat recalcitrant Germans back in under their security umbrella, back under kind of Pax Americana, saying to the Germans, the French and others, yes, we haven't been terrifically reliable partners. Look at Afghanistan. Look at the Trump era. But you've got this big, bad Russian bears sitting on your border, and we're the only, to protect you. I mean, why delay? Why pervaricate? Why, again, just not come out and do this deal with Putin, acknowledge that Ukraine is never joining NATO. And, you know, ask, you know,

for some commensurate. You know, my dear, Putin is in some ways on this, Biden's best friend. This is, in a sense, he's given Biden a platform to, as you say, push the, you know, other members of the alliance, but it is an alliance, and Germany and France have voices. And the Germans are explicit on this. Their view is that they will never say publicly that Ukraine has no road to membership in NATO. And they articulated that again two weeks ago in Halifax. There is no chance that they will agree to that. What they will do is what you are. are complaining about there will be open-ended ambiguity, even though Germany knows, Ukraine knows, the United States knows, we know there is no road to membership for Ukraine in Nepal.

And that's what Putin is exploiting. And to some degree, it forces hard choices on the allies. I think because the European allies know very well that they are not going to advance this road, they're more confident than his Secretary Blinken and Joe Biden that this cannot spin out of control. And on this one, frankly, I agree with the United States. This could escalate there was artillery fire this week on the board. There were local folks on the ground,

particularly in the Donbass region, who have every reason to start up. So there is a dangerous game going on here. You've been listening to a sample of the Monk Members Only podcast. To access the rest of the episode, consider becoming a member. Membership is free and available at www.w monk debates.com. Once you've joined as a member, go to your membership profile to access the rest of this episode and all of our Monk members podcast.

Thanks for listening.