The Munk Debates Podcast - Munk Members-Only Pod: Episode 8

Episode Date: February 26, 2021

This is a sample of the Munk Members-Only Podcast. The program provides listeners with a focused, half-hour masterclass on the big issues, events and trends driving news and current events. The show features Janice Gross Stein, the founding director of the Munk School of Global Affairs and bestselling author, in conversation with Rudyard Griffiths, Chair and moderator of the Munk Debates. This episode provides insights into three big stories in the news: how should the world respond to Iran's provocative nuclear enrichment ambitions?; did Facebook or the Australian government win the social media regulation standoff Down Under?; and is the global economy poised to boom or bust in 2021 as case counts plummet and commodity prices soar? We debate it all. To access the full length episode consider becoming a Munk Member. Membership is free. Simply log on to www.munkdebates.com/membership to register. Under your membership profile page you will find a link to listen to the full length editions of Munk Members Podcast. If you like what the Munk Debates is all about consider becoming a Supporting Member. For as little as $9.99 monthly you receive unlimited access to our 10+ year library of great debates in HD video, a free Munk Debates book, monthly newsletter, ticketing privileges at our live and online events and a charitable tax receipt (for Canadian residents). To explore you Munk Membership options visit www.munkdebates.com/membership. This podcast is a project of the Munk Debates, a Canadian charitable organization dedicated to fostering civil and substantive public dialogue. More information at www.munkdebates.com.Become a Munk Donor ($50 annually) to get 72-hour advanced access to the full length editions of Friday Focus and Munk Dialogues. Go to www.munkdebates.com to sign up. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Hi, Monk podcast listeners. The following is a sample of the Monk members-only podcast. To access the full-length edition of this episode and all of our regular Monk members-only podcasts, go to our website, www.com, and register for membership. Membership is free, and it's available for you right now at www. Monkdebates.com. Hope you enjoy the program. Hi, Monk members. Rudyard Griffiths here, the chair of the Monk Debates. Welcome to our weekly members-only podcast. This is our half-hour program where we dig into the big issues and ideas in the news, shaping our world. Our guide for these conversations is Janice Gross Stein. She's the founding director of the Monk School of Global Affairs and internationally

best-selling author and respected political scientist. Janice, always great to get your take on another busy, busy week full of some great stories for us to unpack. It surely has been an interesting week and so glad to be with members to talk about them. Janice, I want to begin with a deep area of expertise for you personally, which is the Middle East. You've spent a career thinking about peace and security issues in the region. And one of the stories that certainly caught my attention in the last seven days was the commitment here on the part of the government of Iran to significantly increase. its enrichment of uranium. In a sense, creating or recreating this dilemma of a red line, which is when does Iran cross over from being a power that, they say, is enriching uranium

for peaceful purposes to a nation that can potentially acquire a nuclear bomb and destabilize the region. What's your take on this? And more importantly, what is the Biden administration supposed to do about this situation? Roger, you are watching the most complex issue that there is right now that goes to the heart of the Middle East. Iran's announcement that it is accelerating its enrichment is pre-bargaining pressure. This is all about getting the United States to the table as quickly as possible to do two things. One, and let's call it what it is, to come back into compliance with a negotiated agreement that President Trump unilaterally walked away from. So the rule breaker here was the United States under President Trump, but more important, as soon as the United States comes back into compliance, what is really motivating the Iranian government, it wants the sanctions lifted.

President Trump imposed sanctions throughout this period. And frankly, the Iranian economy is strangling under that pressure. President Biden has, this is probably the toughest issue right now and the most urgent issue that he faces. He has said he will not go back into the agreement until Iran itself is in compliance, allows the inspectors to return for full inspections. They cut off access for some, not all,

and ceases to enrich, which is in violation, frankly, of the agreement they signed. Iran says, we're not doing that. Why would we do that? You, the United States, walked away. We will come back into compliance after you come back into clients. So this reminds us, sense of what goes on in a school yard.

You go first. No, you go first. These are high stakes issues, but that's frankly what we're seeing. Some creative people, by the way, are going to figure out how both of them come back into compliance at the same time. Let's talk about a key player, though, in the middle, which is Israel and Benjamin Netanyahu. And as we know, Netanyahu during the Trump administration was really instrumental in having that Iran deal unraveled. He is now facing re-election at a high-stakes election for him, given the fraud and corruption charges that he and his government faces.

So is there a risk here that the Israeli government under Netanyahu pushes Iran or Iran gets into some kind of dynamic with Israel around enrichment that could lead to some unintended consequences? likely not, Roger, just because of the shortage of time. The Israeli election is only four weeks away. So the window is too small. But you're right to put your finger on an alliance between Israel, Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, who are all fixated on Iran as the single largest threat to them in the region. region, and they have worked together on this issue. What are they asking for, Richard? They are asking for what we call a larger, longer, broader agreement. Longer, because this deal was really only good

for 15 years, and they said, what did you do here? You put a band-aid on the Iranian nuclear program. They're going to rip it off at the end of 15 years, and it will be worse. Broader, well, this agreement does nothing to stop the expansion of the Iranian missile program and support of Hezbollah and Hamas. I think it's really important when we're talking about this to separate out Iranian foreign policy. You may like it or you may not let it and these countries hate it. But that is and should not, and that's not a reasonable demand, that the broad direction of Iranian foreign policy should not be part of whether the Biden administration goes back to the table and negotiates about the Iranian nuclear program. You might argue, and this is what Tony Blinken is saying, we're going to go back, we're going to re-enter this agreement,

and then we're going to talk seriously about the length, can we make it longer, and can we include the missile program, which of course are the delivery systems for any new, weapons that Iran might develop. That is separating out broad form policy from the nuclear program and what you need to deliver weapons. It's an absolutely critical step. And those issues are being muddied all the time by partisans on both sides of this issue. It is the hottest issue. It just sets, tempers. Janice, what do you think about the argument here, though? And it was articulated, you know, at really the core of the Trump doctrine towards Iran, which, not to gloss it, was regime change, that they felt that the Iranian government was so buckling under sanctions,

that there was the potential here to depose the Ayatollah and the clique around him, who have ruled this country with real brutality and to the profound detriment of the Iranian people now for going on a generation or more. We did see those large protests, remember, in Iran in the last year. So any concern here that we're rushing to a deal with Iran because of the urgency of the nuclear threat and we're ignoring the fact of just how fragile this regime really is and how punishing these sanctions have been? Generally speaking, Roger, when you impose sanctions on a government, you usually

get a rally around the flag. These bad foreigners are hurting our government, and it usually increases support. The Iranian case is more difficult to interpret. I've just looked at a public opinion polls that came out of Iran this last week. And very interesting, by and more large the public does not blame the United States for the economic troubles that are real. inside Iran, they blame the government, which suggests that this argument has some legs to it. And that by making the economy so difficult, frankly, by strangling the Iranian economy, that is building pressure on the Iranian government. And that's partly why they're so desperate to come back into compliance here. Overall, though, and this is the challenge, generally speaking,

when you look at authoritarian regimes around the world, their willingness to use force to suppress protest and opposition, you know, there is no hesitancy. There is nobody in that government worrying that if they dispatch the besiege, the paramilitary militia, to gun down protesters, that there will be consequences.

So ultimately, I think focusing on containing that program, making it as transparent as possible. And then letting some air into the system is the only way forward here. Okay, we're going to continue to follow that story over the coming year. It surely is one of the big foreign policy challenges of our time. You know, it's the line that runs right through the Middle East, Roger. It is the one big story in this part of the world for this next year.

You've been listening to a sample of the Monk members-only podcast. To access the rest of the episode, consider becoming a member. Membership is free and available at www.munkdebates.com. Once you've joined as a member, go to your membership profile to access the rest of this episode and all of our Monk members podcast. Thanks for listening.