The Munk Debates Podcast - Munk Members-Only Pod: Season 2, Episode 24

Episode Date: June 3, 2022

This program provides listeners with a focused, half-hour masterclass on the big issues, events and trends driving news and current events. The show features Janice Gross Stein, the founding director of the Munk School of Global Affairs and bestselling author, in conversation with Rudyard Griffiths, Chair and moderator of the Munk Debates. This week's Munk Members only podcast focuses on two stories in the news. First, the Russia-Ukraine War marks its 100th day of fighting. Where is this conflict headed next? Will we still be talking about an ongoing war one hundred days from now? Have the risks of wider escalation of the war increased, or is the threat of a NATO vs. Russia conflict receding as both parties seek to keep the war contained in Ukraine? Second, central banks around the world are hiking overnight interest rates to cool overheating economies. What is the likely impact of increased borrowing costs on the larger economy? Is a recession in the cards or can central banks engineer a so called “soft landing” that sees inflation come down while avoiding a prolonged contraction in economic growth? To access the full length episode consider becoming a Munk Member. Membership is free. Simply log on to www.munkdebates.com/membership to register. Under your membership profile page you will find a link to listen to the full length editions of Munk Members Podcast. If you like what the Munk Debates is all about consider becoming a Supporting Member. For as little as $9.99 monthly you receive unlimited access to our 10+ year library of great debates in HD video, a free Munk Debates book, monthly newsletter, ticketing privileges at our live and online events and a charitable tax receipt (for Canadian residents). To explore you Munk Membership options visit www.munkdebates.com/membership. This podcast is a project of the Munk Debates, a Canadian charitable organization dedicated to fostering civil and substantive public dialogue. More information at www.munkdebates.com.Become a Munk Donor ($50 annually) to get 72-hour advanced access to the full length editions of Friday Focus and Munk Dialogues. Go to www.munkdebates.com to sign up. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Hi, Monk podcast listeners. The following is a sample of the Monk members-only podcast. To access the full-length edition of this episode and all of our regular Monk members-only podcasts, go to our website, www.W.Munkdebates.com and register for membership. Membership is free, and it's available for you right now at www.munkdebates.com. Hope you enjoy the program. Hello, Monk members. Rudyard Griffiths here, your host and moderator. Welcome to this, the monk members only podcast.

Once again, we're joined by our regular interlocular each and every week. Janice Gross Stein, the founding director of the Monk School of Global Affairs, an internationally renowned scholar and author. Janice, great to be in dialogue with you again. And great to be here with you, Rudyard, and with all our monk members. Absolutely. A hundred days, Janice, we are marking a milestone this Friday as we record on the 3rd of June.

Could you have ever imagined when this war broke out last March that we would be here 100 days later, no closer, no nearer in sight to some kind of resolution of this horrible conflict? Quite honestly, no, Roger. Partly because all the experts, the U.S. intelligence in particular estimates were that, you know, Zelensky would need a helicopter ride out of Kiev. And this would be a quickly massive Russian advantage. Everybody got it wrong.

And there is a tremendous amount to learn and to take forward from all of that. And unfortunately, governments all over the world, some with benign intentions and some with not are watching all this very closely. On the 100th day, the government of Vladimir Putin out saying declaratively, definitively, that they will pursue all of their war aims. What is the positioning here, Janice, because if you look at other intelligence reports from the Department of Defense in the UK, there is a suggestion here that Russian troops are still struggling with morale. There's estimates that up to 20% of the original invading force of 160,000 personnel have now been effectively immobilized, degraded to the point where they can no longer support ongoing military operations. What is Putin doing here? And I guess, is he serious, Janice?

Is this a serious threat here to pursue completely Russia's wariams? Ukraine? Yes, is the answer. He's serious. But what we mean by completely is what is open to question. He is determined to secure control of the Donbass of those two provinces, if not fully at least to such a point where it's inconceivable that Russia would have any, that Ukraine would have any real political impact in these profits and the land bridge to Crimea. He's going to. He's got that language already. He's very close in Luansk. The last city is holding on by its fingernails. So when you look at the reality on the ground, Frederick, contrary to what we are reading in a lot of the British and American press, look at the reality on the ground. He's mostly accomplished

his objectives. True, he did not decapitate the Ukrainian government, but virtually everything else is in place. Now, those intelligence estimates are right about how the Russian army is being degraded, but so is the Ukrainian army. But the Ukrainians, and rightly so, don't publish the statistics of the high number of casualties. They're experiencing, they too now are recruiting volunteers that get only a few weeks training. This is exactly what people have been talking about for the last couple of months, slog on the ground where ultimately size matters, right here. Now, you know, the Zolanski government, Zelensky himself late this week, revealing that, you know, Russians control approximately a fifth of Ukraine's total territory.

I guess, I guess, Janice, we don't want to kind of maybe recognize this, but is Russia winning this war? The way I answer that question always is, Roger, both sides have lost in this war. Russia is, the Russia coming out of this is set back 25 years, almost whatever happens on the battleground. Their economy is retarded. They have no access, as you know well, Roger, to imports of technology from the United States, which is critical to everything from running paper-making factories to their defense industry. They are, have lost terribly. Ukraine is bleeding. Its economy is decimated. It is going to require massive economic

assistance. It's lost control of 20% of its territory. And whether that turns out to be 17 or 15% or 22 is not material, frankly, in the near future. Strategically, this is, This is a war that the sooner it stops, the less the ongoing damage. There is no winners here. I know that's hard to say and hard to hear. Try to help me one thing I've struggled with this week. We now have reports that both the American government and the UK government will be sending into Ukraine in a matter of days. I believe they're already pre-positioned advanced missile systems that can deliver 500.

pound bombs, so not insignificant explosives over ranges upwards of 40 miles targeted by satellites, extremely accurate, extremely deadly, long-range ordinance to Ukraine to use against Russian troops. To me, this would seem to be escalatory, to say it at least. Lavrov and others have warned that, quote, third parties harboring these types of missile systems will be, you know, legitimate targets, a threat they've made before. But it's also Janice, a threat that they've never acted on. Do you, is there a risk here that we're coming to a point here where the types of weapons, the real threat that those weapons posed to Russia's war aims, to potentially attacks that could occur within Russian territory from the Ukraine using

these weapons, even though the government of Zelensky has made promises that it would not use these systems to strike targets inside Russia. You know, does, does Russia just continue to accept this ever-advancing parade of weaponry at ever more sophisticated and deadly levels coming into Ukraine? Or is there a breaking point? There is certainly a breaking point. There is a breaking point to everything. The big, unknown, uncertain question, Roger, what is that breaking point?

So we are watching something in real time. The whole world is watching something in real time as NATO and the United States try to figure out on the ground what is that breaking point. And you just gave a great example. When you said these high impact artillery missiles are going in, and they're going in because Russian forces and civilians are being decimated. now by the artillery that Russia has. And this is frankly the only thing that can change that balance. But look at the condition that the Biden administration imposed. Zelensky will not use those weapons. In other words, not a single artillery shell will cross the border into Russia. Look at the opportunity here for miscalculation for misfiring, where it's important.

to rule that out, given the heat of the battle, the fact that decision-making is pushed down to local commanders. So that's, first of all. Secondly, we see a pattern where Putin has threatened on the other side of the argument, because I've been worried about escalation right from the beginning, but I've been watching this now, as you say, for 100 days, and increasingly advanced weapons have gone in from the early days, and Putin has not escalated. despite repeated threats to do so. So my critics are saying to me, aren't you spooking yourself?

Aren't you self-limiting? Aren't you over-worrying about Russian escalation? That's the gray zone that we're all in. What I can't say for sure, Rudyard, in the White House and in the National Security Council, they are monitoring, in the most finely grained way to try to figure out where is this line. What should we not do here to cross a line that we don't know?

We can't find. We don't know where it is, frankly. And that's the nature. That's the riskiness of what's going on right now. Final question before we go to break. Will we be here 100 days from now still talking about this war? Yes. Okay.

Let's go to break. When we come back, we're going to talk about the dismal science economics, a 50-point rake hike here in Canada. It's part of an increasing global trend here of central banks hiking overnight lending to try to cool demand in hot economies and to try to match demand with all the supply issues that have emerged both from the war that we've just discussed. COVID China supply chain disruptions, you name it. Inflation is hot, and we're going to talk about it next. You've been listening to a sample of the Monk members-only podcast. To access the rest of the episode, consider becoming a member. Membership is free and available at www.wunkdebates.com.

Once you've joined as a member, go to your membership profile to access the rest of this episode and all of our Monk members podcast. Thanks for listening.