The NPR Politics Podcast - 2028 fantasy draft: Democrats

Episode Date: July 14, 2026

The next presidential election is more than two years away, but it’s not too early to start discussing likely contenders. We do an NFL-style draft of the candidates who may lead the Democratic field in 2028.This episode: voting correspondent Miles Parks, political correspondent Ashley Lopez, and senior political correspondent Tamara Keith.This podcast was produced by Casey Morell and Bria Suggs, and edited by Rachel Baye.Our executive producer is Muthoni Muturi.Listen to every episode of the NPR Politics Podcast sponsor-free, unlock access to bonus episodes with more from the NPR Politics team, and support public media when you sign up for The NPR Politics Podcast+ at plus.npr.org/politics.See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for sponsorship and to manage your podcast sponsorship preferences.NPR Privacy Policy

It may be a midterm year, but today we're taking our first real look at 2028. Who's going to run and who is going to win? Do we know the answers to those questions? No, we do not. But are we still going to make a lot of slightly educated guesses? Yes, we will. Whoa, new music. It is the NPR Politics Podcast.

I'm Miles Parks. I cover voting. I'm Ashley Lopez. I cover politics. And I'm Tamara Keith, senior political correspondent. And today on the show, another draft. We did this a couple months ago with competitive races with Stephen and Domenico, but today we're going to hold a fantasy draft of candidates who we think are contenders in 2028. We're going to start with the Democrats. We're going to do the Republicans very soon. We're going to do this every so often between now and the primaries, which will be upon us before we know it, guys. They're already here. It's already happening. I can't wait to see how our picks change over the next couple months and years. Does this all sound good? Yeah. Sounds like a nerdy good time. It sure does.

And to make sure things are above board, as we like with all things here at NPR, we went out and got a draft commissioner to oversee this process. So let me introduce the NPR Politics Fantasy Draft Commissioner, Casey Morel. Woo-hoo. Thank you, Miles. Thank you, fans. And welcome to the first NPR Politics, 2028, residential fantasy draft. I love this so much. This is amazing.

This is great. Here's how this will work. Each of you are going to draft two Democrats you think stand a decent chance of running for president, making it far into the primaries, and ultimately winning their party's nomination. Now, when you make your pick, defend it. And for those of you who are sitting back, feel free to question it. We will do a snake draft in each round in the interest of fairness. So this means whoever picks last in the first round picks first round picks three. picks first in the second round. Does that make sense?

I mean, I think you lost me at snake draft, but that's okay. It is quite all right. I'll drive the ship. You just pick when Casey says pick. Okay. All right. With that, the first pick in the Democrats' draft goes to Ashley Lopez. Ashley, you are on the clock. Ooh, okay. So my pick is Georgia Senator John Ossoff. Whoa, with the first overall pick. Okay. I was debating someone with more name recognition, someone who Democrats wouldn't be taking as much of a risk taking them out of the Senate, let's say. But I'm picking him because I just feel like this is a candidate potentially who has been the most consistently good at messaging and doesn't seem to anger pretty much anyone.

Like not very polarizing yet. It's very early. but so far I just don't hear voters be angry about him, including from people in his own state. Like I hear from swing voters, people who supported Trump, you know, every month. And in Georgia, this was someone who like, even if voters didn't know a lot about him, they seem to only have good things to say about him. And the things that they knew even though they were limited were positive. And I think whoever's going to be president next is going to be young.

I think we are watching perhaps a pause, maybe not an all-out end, to the gerontocracy in America. And that is why. And he's also very telegenic, good speaker, talking about corruption, things that Americans care about. And he certainly is someone who, as he's running for Senate this cycle, running for re-election, he has produced a lot of viral videos. He's had these big rallies, or at least they look big when you're watching them in viral videos. and his message is very effective at tying into corruption, tying into the feeling that voters have that the system is rigged, that Republicans in charge are enriching themselves. A message that certainly resonates with Democratic voters, but arguably could reach a little bit beyond that. The only problem here, and I just, I hate to rain on the parade here. And with the first overall pick, is a lot of risk here because if Democrats don't win the governor's

this year in Georgia, this basically goes out the window because John Ossoff cannot run for president if there's a Republican governor there and that Republican governor is able to then appoint a Republican senator to take his place should he win. I think that that dependency on that other outcome for me makes it a little risky, though. He is one of the most battle tested senators in a very competitive state. Sure. But if he wins that Georgia Senate seat by numbers, it would almost be ridiculous for Democrats not to pick someone who could win in a purple state like that, leaning red state. But also, John Ossoff's probably the biggest thing that I think is working for him in a Democratic primary will be his position on Israel. The fact that he is signing on to

measures with Bernie Sanders, for example, saying that he is not a for sure on giving aid to Israel, that is conditional. That is going to be the biggest test case for Democrats, I think, coming into 2028. So there's just so much stack that. I'm like, it's going to be hard to think of anyone who has that much in the pro column that Democrats losing a Senate seat. If it's up to control of the Senate, that could be your right. That might be a no-go. But if Democrats have a wiggle room, a seat extra, I think it's fair game. Okay.

A lot of themes to digging into that I think we're going to get to with other candidates too. Who has the second pick, Casey? The second pick in the Democrats draft goes to Tamra Keith. Tam, you are on the clock. All right. My pick is Pennsylvania governor, Josh Shapiro. Wow. See, I had him on my, I thought I was, I literally was just like, okay, so I get two picks next and I'm definitely going to be able to get Shapiro. I'm like, okay, all right, I got to go back to my board. All right. Yep, you are going to have to go back to your board. Yeah, make a case. Okay. So, Governor Shapiro, he is running for re-election right now. He is expected to just walk right into re-election. It is not a tough race that he is facing. He is. someone who has proven that he can get things done in a purple state. He is someone who is proven

that he can win in a purple state. And he was someone who was very seriously considered by Kamala Harris as her potential running mate. And, you know, I think that he is seen as a skilled politician and someone who can just point to a record of getting things done in Pennsylvania. I do think it's an interesting second pick based on what Ashley said because Governor Shapiro has a little bit more complicated feelings about Israel than some other Democrats, or I don't know, everyone has complicated feelings to be clear about Israel. They're just different than what seems to be the wins in the Democratic Party, at least in these primaries we've been watching this year, seem to be blowing. Yes. And we should say that Governor Josh Shapiro is Jewish. John Ossov is also Jewish.

Thus far, major parties have not nominated as their nominee, a Jewish candidate. So that would be a big jump. a big leap. And Shapiro has written an entire book about his relationship with Judaism. I think his relationship with Judaism is not unlike the relationship that a lot of Jewish Americans have with their religion and with Israel. It's complicated. It's very complicated. The other thing that I will say about him is that as he has been running for reelection, he has been showing up in all kinds of surprising places on various podcasts, doing things, you know, sports things. He's showing up everywhere. Yeah, I get the sense that governors could be well positioned coming into 2028 because of how much disgust people have towards Washington right now.

That Democrats who are in Congress have the stink of people who didn't do much on them. I think being governors, like being executives of a state could be like a really nice position to be in for 2028. All right. Casey, who has the next pick? The third pick in the Democrats' draft goes to Miles Parks. Miles, you are on the clock. Frankly, I'm shocked you guys to let them drop to me. I'm taking Gavin Newsom. Governor of California, probably the most obvious I am running for president in

2028 candidate that we have. Both candidates that you guys picked, I will note, have been very coy about their plans in the future. Whereas Gavin Newsom is kind of like, it's happening, baby. I don't think he said it that openly, but every way he could say it that he hasn't said it, he has said it, basically. And so my case in favor of Gavin Newsom, the biggest one, I think, starts last summer with what is the most high profile successful rebuke of Trump in the last two years? And you can make an argument. It was the California redistricting proposition that passed overwhelmingly then. And it really, we saw it in the polls that we have had ahead of 2028, we saw a huge rise. in Newsom's popularity after that successful ballot referendum. And the other thing I will just say about that is, yes, it raised his profile. It made him a more famous figure in Democratic politics. But it also showed how good of a fundraiser he is.

I mean, there was so much money pouring into that race that to the point that he actually said to donors, you guys can stop donating now. Like, we're good, which is like unheard of in politics, right? And so I think that to me was a little bit of a proxy of one big part of what makes a successful presidential campaign is raising money. He also really revved up the Gavin Newsom Twitter machine and has hired someone who is very good doing a bunch of Trump mocking tweets that say things in all caps in the Trump style and, you know, King Gavin Newsom. And I've heard from voters who like that. I will say not swing voters, liberal Democratic voters. And this is where my argument against Gavin Newsom comes in because he is not the governor of a swing state.

He is not the governor of a purple state. He is the governor of a very blue state that has been caricatured by the right and by Fox News and is the subject of thousands of segments about people fleeing the state. And it is a lot to overcome. The sort of San Francisco Chardonnay liberal label is tough. And it might be tough in this environment where Democrats cannot just rely on educated, wealthy liberals. They also need to rely on working class voters. Yeah. Gavin Newsom was my number one until like maybe 10 minutes ago to be honest. Because the more I thought about it, the more I was like, this man cannot survive. a Democratic primary. I don't think he will get that far. And I'll tell you why. It is not just that

people, the story is that people are leaving California. It is that they're leaving California because it is too expensive. It is a state that has become increasingly hard for middle class people to live in. And economic populism is going to be the other part of this cycle. Like I cannot imagine someone running for president who cannot make the pitch that I will make your lives monetarily, materially, materially better. And he has. such a track record now. And also there have been policies from his left that have to do with making things less expensive in that state that he has been against. I mean, we can, that is a whole other thing to talk about is that he has kind of on that economically a little bit,

been a little less progressive than other governors. It's just what it is. And also the fact that he, he has been in politics a long time. Who knows what that opposition file is going to look like. But yeah, I mean, the thing that's going for Gavin Newsom, I think you're absolutely right, Miles. Like the reason why he initially was my number one pick is that he's a fighter, which is the number one thing that Democratic voters want. They want someone who gets scrappy as well. And I have to admit, I feel a little owned by both of you right now. But I'm going to say with a third pick, basically I am getting the person who, if this election in 2020, and again, we're years away from this primary. But if this still feels like a true referendum on Trump and who is going to fight Trump in Trump.

I'm not saying it will be. but it's possible it could be, then Gavin Newsom has just as much of a case as just about anybody else that he can make that case. And I'll tell you how powerful that is is when I was talking to voters. And a lot of them were like, look, I'm not super happy with how expensive everything is in California. They were like, there are things that I want Gavin Newsom to fix. But I am very, very happy with him now. You are talking to me about whether I like my governor. Right now I do because he is sticking it to Trump.

And that is literally all I want from Democrats right now. So. All right. Round one over. Let's take a quick break. More picks in just a moment. And we are back. Commissioner Casey Morel, who is up next?

The fourth pick in the Democrats draft goes once again to Miles Parks. Miles, you're on the clock. I was not expecting to have the third and fourth pick. So I'm like torn right now between two. I feel like I have kind of the same idea that you had, Ashley, where I have, I had a plan going into this and I think I'm just going to switch gears. I'm taking aOC. I'm doing it, you know.

I think that when you think about 2016 and what led to the rise or Donald Trump's success in that campaign, I actually think there's a lot of parallels to what I'm seeing from AOC right now. Two specific things. One, and we've talked about this on the podcast, a lot this year. There is a sense the sort of burn it down mentality and being able to tap into that within voters that you really want systemic change at I am the candidate. for that. AOC does on the left similar. I just think she's able to tap into it in a similar way that Trump was able to in 2016. But the thing that's more that I kept coming back to when I was thinking about her as an option in this draft was how Trump harnessed organic media in 2016 was able to make the story all about him. There is nobody who has a social media machine like AOC, tens of millions

of followers on all these different platforms. And I don't want to be a person who says that matters. I think I've been very skeptical of the role social media plays in our politics. But more and more, I feel like being able to reach millions and millions of people without relying on traditional media sources, I don't know. That really could make a big difference. And no better sign that she is a brand that then you did not say her full name. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Congresswoman from New York.

Yes. Fair enough. But exactly. I feel like with the fourth pick, she's a very high variance pick. we are, again, and I think a lot of these people were not even positive they are going to run. It's possible she could end up running for Senate or she could end up doing something else. I think that's a more likely thing that's going to happen. But I would not rule her out for the presidency as long as she is alive. And you know, you mentioned that she like does really well with people who like Trump. Well, election results show that. She overperformed among Trump voters during the 2024 election. And she even went as far as to ask them, why did you vote for me and him? And a lot of it had to do is that she looks like. working-class fighter to them. And Trump build himself as that way, even though he's a wealthy man who, you know, for the most part, backs a lot of conservative fiscal policies. She has been able to break through

to voters. You know, she gets kind of billed as a very progressive, very lefty person, but she breaks through a lot of these low propensity voters who aren't in one side or the other. She's also been very smart about politics and picking her spots and not always weighing in on everything. The one thing I will say, though, that that is a mark against her is she doesn't have a lot of foreign policy experience or expertise. She went to the Munich Security Conference, and she was asked questions and gave answers that did not reflect particularly well on her expertise. This primary is a couple years away, though, Tam. You can basically get a graduate degree in a time between now and Democratic primary. So she's probably, I wouldn't be surprised if she took that

and has been reading up a lot on foreign policy. If we catch her doing dualingo but for foreign policy, we will know. We'll know she's running. All right. Who's got the fifth pick, Casey? The fifth pick in the Democrats draft goes to Tamara Keith. Tam, you're on the clock. Okay.

I am going to go with Senator Mark Kelly. Hmm. Yeah. He is a senator from Arizona. So another purple state. He is a former astronaut and fighter pilot. He is married to former Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords, who was shot in an incident back in 2011 and has made a recovery and has been a real presence in the political scene. Mark Kelly is someone who has fought with the Trump administration and largely come out ahead.

He is one of the members of Congress who put out that video telling a. service members that they don't have to follow illegal orders. And he has been pursued by the Department of Defense and by the Trump administration. And they have attempted to punish him for that. He has fought back. And in the process, continued to raise his national profile. And he is someone who also was in consideration for the vice presidential pick of Vice President Kamala Harris. He's like, for an astronaut a little bit more boring than some of the choices, than some of the other options. But he is certainly someone who can talk foreign policy, can talk immigration. He's actually been someone who was pretty loud about the Biden administration needing to do a better job of securing the border. But, you know, he is in more of that moderate realm. And that could be a challenge for him if Democratic voters decide they want a popular. I will note that of our first five picks now, four of them have been white males, which is like, it's an interesting, like, I think that's what I thought of when you just said Mar Kelly's. I'm like, I'm not sure exactly how people feel about the demographic thing and what they want from a candidate going forward. But I do think that is like interesting. That I think that's another thing that I think a lot of voters are going to be thinking about. Casey, next pick. The sixth and final pick in the Democrats draft goes to Ashley Lopez. Ashley.

you are on the clock. I'm not going to break the streak. I'm picking a millennial white man, Pete Buttigieg. Ah. And for a couple of reasons. One, yeah, I do think Democrats, they're going to think about electability

and they're going to think about the fact that two women did not win. I think it's going to be hard for them to choose a woman. And Pete's a great speaker. I don't think anyone can fight me on that. He also makes a lot of appearances on Fox News. He's really deft at talking to different

sorts of audiences. He comes across as really smart. He does, you know, he speaks a lot of languages, so he maybe have like a little bit of an edge on AOC on maybe foreign policy stuff also, you know, he was a serviceman. So like that helps too. He hasn't been an office. That's his thing that could be tough. But I don't think that matters anymore. What about his mayorality? Well, I mean, he hasn't been in office lately, as I guess my point, which I don't think matters anymore in this post-Trump world, like Trump never served before he became president of the United States. I don't think voters care about that. In fact, it could be. It could be an asset. Pete arguably overperformed in the 2020 Democratic primary. He did a lot better than expected considering that he was a mayor of a small town before he ran for president, which shows that he's pretty good at this. And he hasn't left, you know, the political conversation since then. So yeah, I mean, that's my quick pitch for Pete. That's hard to say fast.

And all I will say is that he does really well with older white ladies, but he does not do well with black voters. It is a problem that he has as black voters continue to be a really important part of the Democratic electorate. Yeah. Okay. So that was the top six picks. But I want to institute a dark horse round here going rogue. Tamara Keith, you get the first pick of the dark horse round. It's a supplemental draft of our presidential pick.

You get the first dark horse pick. All right. I'm going to pick Hunter Biden. What? Ooh. That is, oh, he is. I'm just here to shock you all. That's spicy.

I don't even think he's on my list. Anytime I hear him talk, I'm just like, he's saying stuff. He was one of his father's top political advisors throughout his father's career. He has been around power for a very long time. He obviously has a lot of personal challenges, addiction that he has overcome. But Americans love a redemption story. Don't over fully to redemption, but we're getting there.

And he has lately been expressing a lot of carefully thought out opinions about this current political moment. And he has some media savvy. I don't know who he's working with. But I am seeing him all over my algorithm in things that I'm kind of shocked by. Like he was at doing this podcast, I guess, with like Benny Blanco, who's married to Selena Gomez. And like the way he talks is like he obviously doesn't sound like a politician. But I think the question. someone asked him was like, you have great teeth? Are your teeth real? And he's like, no, I did a lot of crack. So I, I need new teeth. These are like, yeah. His dad's teeth were also veneers and his dad didn't do a lot of crack. So, you know, the way he was talking, I was like, oh, this is like a guy with like a lot of charisma, which is something that, you know, most politicians, you know, a lot of politicians sort of lack. Yeah, at the end of the day. Yeah. Charisma, it might just be the most important thing. I'm not sure. Maybe we wish it wasn't, but it might be. Ashley, you got the second pick here. I'm going in a very different direction. I think Andy Bashir, the governor of Kentucky. You know, I could be a bias because I lived in Kentucky for a year.

And the Bashir family is very beloved there. They're Democrats from like that were that did very well in a red state, you know, statewide. Democrats haven't done as well in recent years, although, you know, not too far in history. Democrats still had a, you know, a considerable amount of power in the state. but he is very like mild-mannered and he seems like from a different time. And I don't know if voters are going to want to reset to a kind of more congenial. Kind of like a Jimmy Carter of this era. And also he, I think Democrats are going to need to start really getting serious about rural voters.

And if they could find a candidate that does really well in those parts of the country, It is only an asset to them. And so I can see someone like Andy Bashir sort of maybe doing better than you'd expect considering that right now he's maybe not a serious contender. I also think thinking about electability, obviously. I mean, yeah, he has like a 65% approval rating in Kentucky, which is wild. But then also I think one of the kind of big picture criticism of Democrats is that they have all these lofty ideas. And then I think they struggle to actually enact them in a way that makes people's lives better. And I just do wonder if the governorship model kind of cuts against that criticism a little bit.

Yeah, I think governors are well poised for 2028, especially since frustration, like I said, in D.C. is big. I definitely think he's running. Yeah, yeah, I think so too. But I don't know. I haven't seen polling that suggests that he, you know, is doing better than like someone like Gavin Newsome. Right. Yeah. As of now.

Well, my pick for the Dark Horse round is also kind of similar in the governor of a red or purple. state, but somebody, no one, I don't really see people talking about, which is Roy Cooper in North Carolina, who's currently running for Senate there. But is, I don't know if you guys have seen the most recent polling of that race, but he's polling. Doing great. Very well and way ahead of this Republican Michael Watley, if that were to hold, I just want to play out a scenario here. And let's just say, hypothetically, in a very favorable environment of Democrats, he were able to win a state like North Carolina by double digits, say, I could see. I could see. some momentum saying, wow, that is a very electable man who was a popular governor in a state like

North Carolina, in a purple state. I don't know. I just kind of feel like I can see it in a way that I can see it, but I don't hear anyone talking about it, if that makes sense. In North Carolina, you'll hear voters say, like, I know, I know of him and he seemed like he did a good job as a governor, like very, like even people who were sort of paying even just a little bit of attention seemed to know who he was and have a generally good opinion of him. I'd think he does have the, him and actually Andy Bashir, the question is, can you survive a Democratic primary? You know, that is the base of the Democratic Party is moving left pretty quickly. And so I don't know how much of these like governors who are having to vie for voters in red

states or leaning red states, how they're going to fare in those Democratic primaries. But yeah, Roy Cooper, he came out of his governorship in North Carolina with a lot of goodwill. And he is, and if he can prove that he can win a statewide race and a red state three times, it's a good pitch. Also not exactly a spring chicken. I will note that. He will be over 70 at the time 20, 28 comes around, which again, not disqualifying, obviously, in our current political environment, but if what we're saying about, yeah, the push for younger candidates comes true, that could be tough. I will also note, as we close out this first edition of our Democrats fantasy draft, No, Kamala Harris, selected. I was thinking about it. Honestly,

with my fourth pick. She is leading. It's worth noting. She's leading in all the polls in terms of these very early polls. She's got the name ID. A lot of reasons for that. Okay. Well, we can leave it there for today. Guys, this was a blast. I had so much time. I cannot wait for the Republican edition, which will be coming very, very soon. I also can't wait for the post-election day edition where we find out how wrong we were. Oh, well, it's like, we're going to find it out, and then like 90,000 people are going to email us being like, oh my God, you're such a moron. doesn't love a good egg on the face. I can, I can withstand it. Yeah. I'm Miles Parks. I cover voting. I'm Ashley Lopez. I cover politics. And I'm Tamara Keith. I cover politics. Thank you for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast.