The NPR Politics Podcast - A Look At The Most Interesting Races In The GOP's Fight To Retake The Senate

Episode Date: April 13, 2022

There are 35 Senate elections happening this November and although Republicans are defending 21 incumbents to Democrats' 14, they still appear poised to take control as Biden's sagging approval rating jeopardizes his party's narrow control of the chamber. This episode: congressional correspondent Susan Davis, congressional correspondent Kelsey Snell, and senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro.Connect:Email the show at [e-mail] the NPR Politics Podcast Facebook Group.Subscribe to the NPR Politics Newsletter.Find and support your local public radio station.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Hi, this is Jen. I'm from Minneapolis, but right now I'm at the Kennedy Center in Washington, D.C. with my son Max here for a performance. We've been here all weekend sightseeing for his 13th birthday. This podcast was recorded at 2.04 p.m. on Wednesday, April 13th. Things may have changed by the time you hear this. Here's the show. I love the Kennedy Center. You got some great views from there. Yeah, absolutely. You might still be able to like

pick a cherry blossom or two. I think they're still hanging around for a little bit longer. Okay. Hey there, it's the NPR Politics Podcast. I'm Susan Davis. I cover Congress. I'm Kelsey Snell.

I also cover Congress. And I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent. And today we're going to take a look at the top Senate races across the country. This year, 21 seats are up for reelection that are currently held by Republicans compared to 14 for Democrats. And only a handful of these are truly competitive races. Democrats, as you should all know by now, if you're listening to this podcast, control the Senate, but with a very narrow 50-50

majority. So control of the Senate next year is very much in play. We're going to get into some of the top races that are going to decide that majority, but I think we need to start by talking about sort of some of the fundamental rules of midterm elections. And Domenico, to me, probably the most critical thing to know about midterms is that it has a lot to do with which party is in control of the White House. Yeah, and this isn't just trivial historical knowledge. The fact is in Senate races, the president's party in their first midterm since 1950 has lost an average of about two seats. And that would mean that Republicans would take control in this 50-50 Senate. And that's because it's just easier to fire up your base when you're out of power, because that base is angry with the president. And right now, the country's not all

that happy with the president. Yeah, I mean, the national landscape really has shifted for President Biden and for Democrats. You know, presidential approval ratings are probably the most important thing when it comes to midterm elections. And President Biden's approval rating, which nationally was in the 50s in the first six, seven months of his presidency, has really declined nationally. And it's even worse in Senate swing states because these are places that were close in the presidential election that Biden won. but any kind of light breeze in the direction of Republicans can tip the balance fairly easily. When you say that, I'm thinking about places like Arizona, I'm thinking about Georgia,

I'm thinking about places that, you know, were barely going to be possible for Democrats in a really good year. Yeah, those were, you know, two of the closest states, obviously, the presidential election. So let's just look at the top tier of races. There's only half a dozen states, really, where the Senate control is going to be decided. Democrats have two targets in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. And Republicans have four that they're really looking at, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, New Hampshire.

Surprise, surprise. Those are all states that we talk about in presidential elections. And they're the top six states of the Senate midterm election. Kelsey, another one of the fundamentals, I think, of all elections, but particularly this year, is how people feel about the direction of the country and specifically about how they feel about the economy. And in that context, not so great news for Democrats either this year. Yeah. And that's something we have seen happen in poll after poll, if I'm correct, Domenico, is that we're seeing people feel really not great about the economy in general. And in particular, they worry about their personal economy. in this cycle, because if people are worried about the economy as it applies to their own pocketbook, the way that they experience the world, it means that those people are probably going to blame the party in power for that scenario, regardless of the fact that many economists and political scholars will argue about how much a president can do about some

levers of the economy. When it comes to particularly inflation, there's a lot of blame going around for President Biden. Yeah. And, you know, the White House actually would argue that this narrative about the economy is unfair because they think the fundamentals of the economy are pretty strong when you consider unemployment being almost at full employment. The GDP growth has been as high as it's been. But what do people notice? They drive down the street, they see that six foot tall sign that shows them what gas prices are. I really doubt most people could tell you what the price of bacon is, even though it's increased substantially over the past year or so. I think you might have just offended some bacon eaters out there, Domenico. But the thing is, is I bet people could tell you they're spending more each week.

They can look at their bank account and be like, well, wow, I spent like $100 more on groceries this month than I would have in the past. I planned these things and it's really not working out for me. Domenico, I'm curious for your thoughts on this because on the House side, I think Republicans feel really confident that they are in a very good position to take the majority. And I think Democrats feel really pessimistic. But in the Senate, it isn't as clear to me. I mean, I think it's probably the nature of having a 50-50 Senate, of having these sort of battlegrounds and a lot of these races are still being formed. I mean, I don't, the fundamentals lean towards Republicans, but it does kind of feel like not all hope is lost among Senate Democrats in the same way it might be among House Democrats.

No, and I think that Republicans do have some hurdles to overcome. You know, if you think about their recruiting struggles, they didn't get the more popular governors in Arizona and New Hampshire to run, which have opened up messy primaries. You have a handful of election deniers who have lined up with President Trump saying that the election was stolen when it wasn't, which could be problematic when you're talking about independents or those who might lean toward a Republican but don't want to go that far. You have some of these candidates with checkered pasts, untested candidates like Dr. Oz in Pennsylvania, who Trump has endorsed, Herschel Walker, who's the former NFL running back, and Georgia Bulldog, who won the Heisman Trophy there. He's had ex-girlfriends and an ex-wife who've accused him of domestic abuse. He has a checkered financial history. So there's a lot of things going on here that could wind up not breaking the dam as much

as Republicans would want. Now, they'll say, Republicans, that if you look specifically at a state like Wisconsin, where Ron Johnson is running, that they think is the linchpin state. And if they can pick off, let's say, two of the four states that they're targeting in Georgia, Nevada in particular, and Arizona, New Hampshire, and then maybe have Ron Johnson hold in Wisconsin, then there's their path. So there's lots of different paths. They think in a wave year, some of these untested canyons with checkered paths can be pushed

over the finish line. Yeah. But I think another thing that's happening here for Democrats is they are watching really some of these untested candidates with checkered pass can be, you know, pushed over the finish line. Yeah. But I think another thing that's happening here for Democrats is they are watching really closely, you know, factors that have not actually played out yet. A big one is the Supreme Court. Now, that matters more to the Senate because the Senate is where a Supreme Court nominee gets confirmed. And it's been drilled into voters over and over that the balance of power in the Senate can mean the difference of the balance of power in the Supreme Court. And when it comes to the possibility of some aging justices possibly not making it through another administration, or the possibility that the Supreme Court could make a decision about

Roe versus Wade in the next several months. Those are all like giant bombshell size things that could shake up Senate races in a way that would be deeply unpredictable. I also think we need to caution here that a lot of these races are unsettled. I mean, we're barely gotten through primary season. So it's hard to be too analytical of races where we don't actually even know what the November ballot is going to look like yet. You know, this is where it starts. In May, for example, there are some pretty big tests for Trump's endorsements of candidates in, say, you know, Pennsylvania and Ohio, for example, where there's a crowded Republican field. And there are some primaries that are much later

in the process that are going to be, you know, Republicans kind of biting their nails a little bit, hoping they get the best candidates through those races, thread a needle between President Trump's endorsements and these candidates running their own races, they say, raising their own money, making appeal to independence in purple states. All right, let's take a quick break. And when we get back, we'll talk some more about top Senate races. And we're back. And Domenico, I want to focus in on some of these races that might sort of speak to the trends or the races we should be watching closely about which way the Senate might go. Where among the Democratic

held states, and we'll start with them because they are the majority, do Republicans feel like they are on the most offense or that they have the best chances of picking up a seat? You know, look, a place like Georgia is obviously where a lot of the attention is going to be paid. We've seen, you know, hot political, you know, activity there over the last several cycles. But when I talk to Republicans, what was surprising to me is they didn't start there. They're talking about Nevada as their potentially top pickup opportunity. And that, we should say, is a state that is currently a seat that's held by Senator Catherine Cortez Masto. And I would give you, you know, 10 bucks if you could point her out on the street for most people.

Or for some reporters in the Senate. Because she has cut a pretty low profile in the Senate. And it's less about her than it is just the landscape of Nevada in general. It's a state, you know, she only won by two points in 2016 in a presidential year. You know, Biden himself only won by two points in 2020. And this is an off year. Democrats have to really be concerned about being able to turn out Latinos and Asian American voters who are really key, now become a real key portion of the Democratic base, particularly

in Clark County, where Las Vegas is, where two thirds of the vote comes from. Another notable thing about Nevada, because it's a state that where elections are always won or lost between like one and three percentage points for things like president and senator, is it also has a really interesting demographic mix up. You know, they have a lot of Latino voters, a significant Asian population there that can be really critical. And those are two demographics that have actually we've seen some shifting towards Republicans in recent public polling. So I think Republicans also see an opportunity there because of the sort of voter makeup of the state. Definitely.

And when they point to who they think is their best candidate privately, they talk about Adam Laxalt, who's the former attorney general in the state. But Laxalt himself, when we talk about these candidates who potentially might have some problems winning over independent voters, he's somebody who lost the governor's race in 2018. So he hasn't cut like a great, you know, statewide profile, even though that was in a midterm year against former President Trump, of course. But he's also somebody who's jumped strongly on board the Trump train, you know, and has been a chief election denier claiming that the, you know, fraud, you know, overturned

the state election in Nevada, which is really interesting for a guy like him because, number one, not only is that not true, but he's the son of a former senator, Pete Domenici. He's the grandson of a former governor of Nevada. So he's pretty darn establishment if you think about it. And yet there's a lot of these guys who are trying to walk this line and appear very Trumpy. Kelsey, you know, the president has already had many struggles trying to get an agenda through a Congress controlled by Democrats. If Democrats lose either the House and or the Senate, it seems like there's going to be a lot of challenges for this White House.

And one I think of when it comes to the Senate is if they win a majority there, it's going to be a very different kind of Republican coming into the Senate. If Republicans are winning in places like Pennsylvania and Ohio and North Carolina, where we're seeing Republicans much more partisan than the Republican senators they're replacing. I think one of the things that I watch in this is that right now the balance of the Republican conference in the Senate is, you know, it tends in favor of people who basically align behind Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. He has a power over that conference in a way to kind of unify them around messaging that you could see completely dissolve if that balance of support shifts. Now, many people may know this, but it's not like former President Trump really likes Mitch McConnell. He has said something pretty... Really? Safe to say. Safe to say. And so if these very Trump loyal Republicans come into the Senate, you could see a lot more of power shifting over to the people who have decided to completely defy McConnell on messaging and on approach. So far, I'm thinking of people like Ted Cruz and Mike Lee and Tom Cotton and Josh Hawley, people who think that the Republican Party should be behaving very differently than, say, Mitch McConnell does. And that means things like investigating Hunter Biden. That means things like basically going after culture wars issues that

Congress has no ability to legislate on, but they can take up a whole lot of floor time arguing about, and basically trying to undermine anything that Biden has set up policy-wise so far. So there is a lot that could change if Republicans take over the Senate. Thank you both for what is one of our inaugural conversations about the fight for the Senate this year. Yeah, voting is getting started soon. All right. We're going to leave it there for today. I'm Susan Davis. I cover Congress. I'm Kelsey Snell. I also cover Congress. And I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent. And thanks for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast.