The NPR Politics Podcast - America's Presidential Indictment Era

Episode Date: March 31, 2023

How will American politics change now that a former president, Donald Trump, is facing criminal prosecution for the first time in the country's nearly two and a half centuries of existence?This episode: White House correspondent Scott Detrow, senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro, national justice correspondent Carrie Johnson, and political correspondent Susan Davis.The podcast is produced by Elena Moore and Casey Morell. It is edited by Eric McDaniel. Our executive producer is Muthoni Muturi. Research and fact-checking by Devin Speak.Unlock access to this and other bonus content by supporting The NPR Politics Podcast+. Sign up via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org. Giveaway: npr.org/politicsplusgiveaway Connect:Email the show at [e-mail] the NPR Politics Podcast Facebook Group.Subscribe to the NPR Politics Newsletter.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Hi, this is Rebecca in Minneapolis. Today, the high was in the 40s, so I just got back from my first walk of the year where I wore shorts. This podcast was recorded at... It seems like the right move. It's 1223 Eastern on Friday, March 31st. Things may have changed by the time you hear it, but I'll still be enjoying the above freezing temperatures every chance I get. Okay, here's the show. I'm still waiting for it to become spring here. And this 40 degrees and shorts does not work for my Mediterranean blood. I will tell you that. Oh, free the legs, free the legs. Hey there, it's the NPR Politics Podcast. I'm Scott Detrow. I cover the White House. I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent.

And I'm Carrie Johnson, national justice correspondent. And it's worth really emphasizing this as we start. The United States has never been here before. We do not know exactly what the charges filed against Donald Trump in Manhattan are. We do not know what else may come. But we know this. A former president of the United States is facing criminal charges. The U.S. has not been here before. So let's start there. Before Trump was the first president to face criminal charges, he was the first president to be impeached twice. And I feel like those two impeachment trials and the political climate around them kind of, but not fully, but kind of give us a sense of what this could be like and how Americans could react. What do you think about that, Domenico?

Oh, yeah. I mean we've seen this book over and over again. I mean, yes, this is historic. It's a big deal. But, you know, look, the thing that Trump most wants and the left most wants are the same thing, a picture of him in handcuffs, a photo that's released, a mugshot because Trump can use that to raise money, fire up his base. He's done a tremendous job politically in insulating himself, at least when it comes to a Republican primary and with his base. The opposite, though, is true when it comes to everybody else as his brand has become increasingly toxic.

But everybody else are, I mean, by and large, the people who put Joe Biden in the White House, right? He made a calculated political push to focus on moderates, on independents, on the people who aren't binge watching MSNBC and Fox News. I guess we don't really have a sense how the trial of not only a former president, but a presidential candidate, if it gets to that point, could play out with that large, large pool of voters. I mean, look, the stakes are super high here, not just for the New York District Attorney Alvin Bragg personally, but also politically, because there's a big difference between an indictment and a conviction. And, you know, Trump has been pushing this idea that this is politically motivated. There's some evidence in polling that people believe him and it's not the case with potentially the largest or most serious peril for Trump.

There are three other criminal cases that he has to worry about and if Bragg is not able to secure a conviction here, that will just play into the Trump narrative. We've seen him even when a majority of senators voted for his impeachment. He claimed vindication. He did that even when the Mueller investigation in looking into his role with Russia in his campaign, that he didn't exonerate him, yet Trump still declared vindication. So anything short of a conviction, you can guarantee that's what Trump's playbook is going to be. There have been a lot of threats against the Manhattan District Attorney, Alvin Bragg. There have also been a clear focus of the Republican officials responding to these charges, attacking him, criticizing him, saying this is partisan, saying that this is all about charging the frontrunner

for the 2024 Republican nomination. He has a response today about all of these attack lines. What is he saying? You know, a lawyer working for D.A. Alvin Bragg sent a quite strong letter to House Republican chairman, including Jim Jordan of Ohio, saying it seems like you're collaborating with the former president and acting more like his criminal defense attorneys than a legislative body trying to make policy or new laws. And basically, Bragg says, your incursion, your attempted incursion into my ongoing investigation of Donald Trump is unjustified, unprecedented, and unnecessary. Bragg says that, you know, he will answer some questions, but he wants to know what the congressmen really want to know. And earlier, they had asked him about whether he used any federal funds to congressmen really want to know. And earlier, they had asked him about whether he used any federal funds to try to prosecute Donald Trump. Well, he said, in fact, a very, very small amount of money, something like $5,000 might have been spent mostly in the

Supreme Court litigation that the former president brought under the previous Manhattan DA. And in fact, Alvin Bragg says his office actually returns a lot more money to the federal government than it takes. That's something we need to watch moving forward. I think there's going to be more of a tug of war here. But Bragg is not giving any ground in a lot of this friction with House GOP chairman, I think will continue. Carrie, does the fact that other charges might come in other investigations affect this case moving forward? I don't think it does. Normally, the federal government and state authorities do try to

coordinate on some matters. I don't think there has been much coordination here, in part because of the fear of leaks and Attorney General Merrick Garland's policy of basically being very protective of sensitive information. In fact, I asked the AG recently about the political calendar, the idea that the first GOP debate is coming up in August of this year and whether the special counsel, Jack Smith, would be done by then. He said he didn't know. He wasn't keeping close enough tabs on what Jack Smith was doing day to day. But obviously, there are a lot of fights going on in the federal courthouse with the former president asserting all kinds of legal privileges and mostly losing those fights. That's part of why this investigation is taking a while

is because Trump keeps putting forward arguments about executive privilege and attorney client privilege and all kinds of other things. But he appears to have mostly lost those battles. And at some point, push is going to come to shove, perhaps with testimony from former Vice President Mike Pence sooner rather than later. Stepping back, we have operated in this world for at least 50 years for sure that presidents just aren't charged with crimes. And part of that is the Justice Department's memo that we talked so much about during the Trump administration about charging current presidents with crimes. And part of that is the Justice Department's memo that we talked so much about during the Trump administration about charging current presidents with crimes. But that's not

in the law. I think a broader part of it is the fact that Gerald Ford made a decision to pardon Richard Nixon to head off any sort of criminal prosecution of a former president. I mean, this seems to be blowing that all up. This is a new world going forward. This is something that's going to happen. Well, certainly we know from the district attorney, Alvin Bragg's mouth himself, that the former president has been charged in New York. We're still waiting to see what the exact nature of those charges are. And also the strength, the strength of that legal case is still an open question. That said, that bridge has been crossed now and we can't uncross it. And so while it was controversial in the moment for Ford to pardon Nixon over the years, a lot of people understood that as being kind of a healing measure.

It could go on and on and on. or someone must write the end to it. I have concluded that only I can do that. And if I can, I must. With the rise of Donald Trump and some of the violations of norms and alleged violations of laws we saw both before he entered the White House and during his time in the White House, a lot of people have come to question the wisdom of that Justice Department memo, which basically says the federal government can't prosecute a sitting president. You know, the Justice Department, to my knowledge, has not re-evaluated that position. That is still the case. The thing that's different is that Donald Trump is not the president now, but he's trying to be the president again.

And Scott, you know, he's already pledged on the campaign trail to pardon people convicted in connection with January 6th, in connection with the beating up of police officers on January 6th, the storming of the Capitol. So this story is not even remotely over. We're just at the beginning in some ways. Dominico, on one hand, I feel like this, I keep seeing the phrase taboo of charging a current or former president. Maybe there's a better term for it. But I feel like so much of that has to go with the power and the symbolism of the office, right? So you have that on one hand, and then on the other hand, you have the particular former president of Donald Trump, who seems to be telling everyone who comes across that he can't wait to be handcuffed

and perp walked for the street. He's fundraising off of this. He's, you know, last week holding a rally where he plays songs by people in jail because of January 6th. So he certainly seems to be all about the spectacle that's going to happen over the next few months. Trump loves pushing the envelope, right? And I think that you could argue that what Gerald Ford did in pardoning Richard Nixon, you know, while it was unpopular at the time and became a bit more popular or understandable, you have a president now or former president now who pushes the limits and pushes the line of what's acceptable. And a lot of people would argue that what Trump is charged with in this multitude of cases is worse than what Nixon did. That's an

argument for history. But really, Ford wound up opening a Pandora's box a bit to being able to say, OK, let's see how far someone who could come in the coming decades could go. The thing is we're unique to this in this country because other western democracies have certainly had their leaders charged with crimes and fairly recently. I mean in Israel, you've had two prime ministers including the one who's serving currently, who's facing charges. France has had a couple who've faced embezzlement and other charges. So Brazil, Lula was charged, went to jail, came back, is also now the current president.

Yeah, and this is something that is just I think hard for Americans to cross this threshold of to realize and see because of the way it's always been. But Trump is, again, somebody who just continues to see how far he can go with something, how far he can take it because there's nothing crossing him out from facing charges, even being convicted and running for president still. All right. We're going to take a quick break and talk more about the politics when we get back. Domenico, stick around. Carrie Johnson, thank you as always. I feel like I'm always thanking you for off-the-wall unprecedented legal developments that you're covering. And here we are again. Thank you for having me. All right. More in a second. We are back and now joined by Susan Davis.

Hey, Sue. Hey, Scott. All right. Roughly 20 hours into the story, how would you characterize the reaction from the political world? Exactly as you would anticipate. All right. Cool. Let's end the podcast.

The political battle lines around Trump are so drawn and so clear that if there is one lesson we have learned over years of covering Donald Trump is nothing really moves the needle. No behavior, no statement, no position really shakes the way that this country views him. The country's mind is made up. I actually think it's been a good 20 hours for Donald Trump because as the frontrunner for the Republican nomination, what this indictment has done for him politically has united the Republican Party behind him, including from his potential rivals and sometimes critics, people like Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida, and even his former vice president, Mike Pence, is out there defending the president against this indictment. Was there literally a single thing you saw that surprised you when it came to politicians and officials responding to this? No, the thing that I would say is I do think that there is some private worry among Democrats that this is could be seen as overreach. That in the orbit of things that Trump is being investigated for, things like undermining democracy are just fundamentally not going to be seen on the same level by the public as what I think a lot of people could view as private matter, that he was trying to contain something that could affect his family. I just just the way that they would be perceived, or I think it's fair to say very different issues, both from a legal and a political perspective.

You know, $130,000 that Michael Cohen, Trump's attorney, paid to Stormy Daniels that Trump then reimbursed him as to all of this to cover up the alleged affair. If you're Donald Trump, regardless of your actual net worth, that's not a ton of money, you know? Exactly. But Domenico, we talked a little bit about this in last night's podcast, but it's worth expanding the conversation because there's been some development since then. But it's also interesting. Let's talk about those people who are running against Trump for the nomination or about to get in the race who, by definition, want him to lose. They want to beat Trump in a primary. And yet Ron DeSantis in particular is defending Trump, going as far to say that he would resist any efforts to extradite Trump from Florida. DeSantis is stuck here because he has been trying to run in the culture lane that Trump has taken up all the space of. And really the people who are most open to somebody other than Trump in the Republican primary are the opposite of that. The people who are college-educated Republicans who make pretty good money. That's why you saw DeSantis backtrack on his stance against the war in Ukraine saying

originally it was a territorial dispute, then dismissing that in an interview with Piers Morgan and saying Putin was a war criminal And just – he has just struggled mightily to really combat any of these onslaught of attacks from Trump because Trump knows he's the biggest threat. And DeSantis, who's not in the race yet, almost seems surprised himself by the level of attack from Trump. And he's been hurt by it. Yeah. So let's talk about the Democrats for a minute. On one hand, this is the exact type of accountability that a lot of Democrats, including Jamie Raskin, who managed one of the impeachments, have been calling for. On the other hand, you know, we saw on this very podcast, the political downsides of calling for investigations

and arrests of presidents when Kamala Harris told us when she was running for president, Donald Trump should be charged with a crime. And that blew back and was something that hurt her campaign. Yeah. There is a stink about seeing the overlap between politics and the legal system. And we can't be predictive about how it's going to cut. I do think also, you know, I say the thing about this is good for Trump in the context of a Republican ecosystem. But in a broader general electorate world, this is a big problem. And it's not just because Democrats don't like Donald Trump. Of course they don't like Donald Trump, indicted or not. But one thing in our poll and other polls tell us like, independents are tired of Donald Trump. They're exhausted by Donald Trump. And I

think having him back in the news in both a very negative light in the context of crimes, I mean, this doesn't help Donald Trump's case if what he's actually trying to do is become president him back in the news in both a very negative light in the context of crimes. I mean, this doesn't help Donald Trump's case if what he's actually trying to do is become president of the United States again. The voters that he needs to get back that supported him in 2016, that rejected him in 2020, they are not coming back. There is nothing in the data that suggests that they're softening in that opposition. So broadly, yes, of course, it's bad to be facing indictment when you're trying to win a national election. But in the short term, I bet he's going to be able to raise a ton of money off of it. He has been able to sort of silence his rivals in the short term. And, you know, seeing a former president potentially frog march to go get

a mugshot taken is not an insignificant moment in American history. Yeah, I mean, Sue's right. You know, not much, if anything, has made any difference with the Trump base. But a six-figure payoff for somebody who you're having an affair with, allegedly, and falsifying business records, allegedly, to make that payment is a pretty big deal. And, you know, other people aside from that base have clearly seen that. Yeah. Looking forward, Sue, do you see a world where this opens up more investigations, whether from House Republicans or from, you know, Republican district attorneys across the country into Joe Biden, into his son, Hunter Biden, who is certainly a target of Republicans on a lot of fronts when it comes to this type of stuff, or into some sort

of tit for tat political world where where charges are now part of politics. You know, I can't imagine it changes House Republicans' calculation. And by that, I mean, they have already announced so many investigations into the Biden administration. I'm not sure what else they could say. Another one. Right. Like they've kind of maxed out.

They're looking at his family. They're looking at family business ties. I mean, they want to find something, right? Like they're, I think it does create more political pressure on Republicans to try to come up with something that might have some credibility within the public. They obviously haven't been able to offer much that, but there's a really long runway to go before 2024. And I do think it does make, and this is the question I have is when I say, like, does this all just become politics and noise to voters? Does the does this indictment versus any investigation into the Biden? It just seems like politics as usual now. And I don't know how that impacts the way voters look at these two people, especially if they ultimately end up running against each other in 2024.

Yeah. And I guess that's that's my my one thought that the flip side of this particular case being the one that's moving forward. I mean, we talked about the fact that there are certainly much more consequential allegations against him. But if you're talking about swing voters just being over it, the case where it's conversations about payoffs to porn actresses seems to me to be a case that would particularly sicken the type of swing voter to say, I don't want to hear about this anymore. I don't want to hear about this guy. Yeah. Even if they don't object to the substance or feel like it's a private matter, they're exhausted by the controversy and the person.

You know what's a good cure for exhaustion? Our Friday Can't Let It Go segment where we talk about happy, fun things. We are going to take a quick break and come back with Can't Let It Go. We are back and it is time to end the show like we do every Friday with Can't Let It Go, the part of the show where we talk about things from the week we cannot stop talking about politics or otherwise. Domenico, you are up first. Yeah, I mean I guess I can't let go thinking about AI, artificial intelligence, and what's been going on with some of those latest developments. And I'm not talking about the sort of weird conversations that reporters have been able to have with a couple of those bots. But this researcher who's been studying AI for years wrote this op-ed in Time saying – and he's been looking at it for a long time saying that we should shut it all down and really posing a lot of major warning signs. And it's really striking to me.

They roll this out and I just think about as reporters, we wouldn't roll out a lot of the work we would do that's just like first drafts or notes and get things wrong and have it out there. But it's clearly inevitable that it's going to be something that's used, that is being used. It's being used on the campaign trail already, used by the political parties to write emails, for example. So it's already out there. It's already being used. I mean, I know this isn't exactly AI though, but after the late night yesterday, I was a little taken aback and actually did help my mood. I asked Alexa what the weather was and she told me the weather and then she said, you know, do you want me to play a happy playlist to – for some upbeat songs to help you get moving with your day. You seem a little tense, Domenico.

Did you take her up on that offer? I did, and I felt better. So what's the problem with AI? No, I'm here for that kind of AI, but is it all going to be like that? Or is it going to try to take over at some point? We've all seen the Terminator. I am terrified of the AI thing. I haven't engaged with any of the chat GPTs, like none of it.

I'm absolutely terrified by it. And Chris Murphy's Democratic senator from Connecticut, he had a tweet that was like basically saying Congress has to look at way more of this. But apparently a computer taught itself chemistry, but it wasn't programmed to teach itself chemistry. Like it had it showed an interest in a subject matter outside of its programming and then did it. And he was like, this is taking us to places we can't even comprehend. And I'm with Domenico. I'm like, this is terrifying. It doesn't feel like there's any upsides to this world. It is not like an unexplored topic, the downsides of this, right? It is like a constant part of our pop culture for 30 years, how AI can go very poorly very quickly. And we're like, yeah, that's cool. Let's just see what happens. Don't worry about it. Is there any happy movies about AI? You know what I mean? They're all apocalyptic. I think we've just been conditioned by our Terminator and any number of movies that just make you think it ends poorly. Scott, what can't you let go of? A magical moment of musical theater.

Oh. I didn't take you for a musical theater guy. You know, let me surprise you. We've all got layers. It has been, without going into detail, not the happiest time here at National Public Radio. Yeah. But on Monday, we had a Tiny Desk concert. The cast of Wicked came down from New York on their off day to celebrate. The show's been around for 20 years, which is wild. I was very happy to get tickets because, even though you may be surprised with this, I do like some musical theater. Okay. Me too.

My Can't Let It Go is from before The Tiny Desk, though, where I'm walking through NPR and I hear coming out of the women's room a full-blown ballad of the show-stopping number in Wicked, Defying Gravity. And the actress who plays Elphaba, Alyssa Fox, was warming up for the tiny desk in the bathroom. And you just heard a full-blown emotional high point of the song coming out. And it was like a This Is Sports Center commercial, but for NPR. Very NPR. That made me happy to begin with. But then i was googling her after the concert and alyssa fox has been working toward being the role of this of this musical for 13 years she had this long post on instagram about how she you know the the initial casting call she went through in like 2008 took more than a year from the time she got the part as an understudy in a touring production

she had like 18 in her bank account and she has been steadily moving her way up the ranks until she was given the Broadway lead like just a couple of weeks ago. So I just love the idea of this person like fulfilling this lifelong dream, being so into it that she's singing at the top of her lungs in our bathroom. Yeah. It's so humanizing because you think these people are like stars and confident and then you're like, oh no, like she's also a bathroom, probably like nervous, warming up for a Tiny Desk concert. And it's just like, I don't know. It's nice to know that they're humans just like us. Just got to stick with it. You know, got to teach our kids that resilience, too.

And you might hear us reading a podcast intro in a bathroom one day out and about. Maybe I need to do my book at work. And you're like, oh, wow, that must be Sue Davis. NPR News, Washington. What about you? What can you not let go of? The thing I cannot let go of this week was the trial of the century involving Gwyneth Paltrow. Oh, my goodness.

Gwyneth Paltrow, I imagine everyone in our audience knows who she is. Hollywood actress, goop executive officer. She was in a civil case over a skiing incident that happened several years ago in which she was, as the jury determined, the victim here. She was skied into by an older gentleman and they've been fighting it out for years. But the reason why I can't let it go is, especially in the context now of talking about the Trump trial and all these big important things, it was just so low stakes. It was. It was the lowest stakes trial I have ever witnessed in my life.

And I loved every detail of it. I mean, there was references to Taylor Swift and the damages that Gwyneth had was that she lost a half a day of skiing. It was incalculable. The man that sued her said part of his damages was after the accident. It changed his personality and made him much more unlikable. And even his lawyers were like, yeah, he's really not a likable guy anymore. This was 10 years ago. It was 10 years ago. It was just, you know, I'm glad everyone's fine. She won the case. It was

only a dollar was at stake here. She was only countersuing for a buck to make a point that she, you know, had to defend herself. But it just felt so insignificant to the point of entertainment. And I needed that this week. Was Goop mentioned at all, though? I have to say. That could be the one. I don't think Goop was mentioned,

but apparently her team did try to bring in treats for the security staff as sort of a thank you. And the judge was like, no, you can't bring in treats. But in my mind, I'm like, are treats bone broth? Like, did she want to bring bone broth in for everybody? Like what is a treat when you're going to the paltrow?

I read just before this started that like once the case was dismissed she like whispered dramatically like I wish you well. Yeah she walked over and like leaned in and everyone was like

coming up with things she said but apparently she just said something nice and said I wish you well. Still a power move. Yeah. All right. I mean

it's clearly the most important legal news this week. That is a wrap for today. Before we go, if you are hearing this on Friday, March 31st, it is the last day that you can enter a chance to win our giveaway. We will not give you Goop products, but we will give you an NPR merch pack and you'll get to record the timestamp for our show. You will get a free year of the NPR Politics Podcast Plus. There is a link to enter in our episode notes. Terms and conditions do apply, and all of those details are in those show notes. Our executive producer on this podcast is Mathani Mathuri. Our editor is Eric McDaniel. Our producers are Elena Moore and Casey Murrell. Research and fact-checking by our intern, Devin Speak.

Thanks to Krishna Def Kalamar and Lexi Schipittel. I'm Scott Detrow. I cover the White House. I'm Susan Davis. I cover politics. I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent. Thank you for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast.