The NPR Politics Podcast - And Then There Were Two

Episode Date: January 22, 2024

With only days before the New Hampshire primary, Florida governor Ron DeSantis suspended his campaign for the Republican presidential nomination. He endorsed former president Donald Trump — raising the stakes for former South Carolina governor & U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley. This episode: political correspondent Susan Davis, voting correspondent Ashley Lopez, White House correspondent Franco Ordoñez, and senior White House correspondent Tamara Keith.Our producers are Casey Morell & Kelli Wessinger. Our editor is Erica Morrison. Our executive producer is Muthoni Muturi. Unlock access to this and other bonus content by supporting The NPR Politics Podcast+. Sign up via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org. Connect:Email the show at [e-mail] the NPR Politics Podcast Facebook Group.Subscribe to the NPR Politics Newsletter.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Hi, this is Shelley in Seattle, Washington. I'm currently enjoying a cup of coffee while watching the rainfall, per usual. This podcast was recorded at 1.10 p.m. on Monday, January 22nd. Things may have changed by the time you hear this, but I'm pretty sure it's still going to be raining out here. Okay, here's the show. I was literally just thinking I wish I had brought a cup of coffee in for this episode of the podcast. That sounded like it was straight from the Calm app. Meditation. We don't need coffee for this podcast. There is so much to talk about. There is so much to talk about. Hey there, it's the NPR Politics Podcast. I'm Susan Davis. I cover politics. I'm Ashley Lopez. I cover voting. I'm Ashley Lopez. I cover voting.

I'm Frank Ordonez. I cover the campaign. And I'm Tamara Keith. I cover the White House. And I am here in Washington, D.C., but the rest of you are all in Manchester, New Hampshire, ahead of Tuesday's first in the nation primary election. For Republicans, it is now essentially a two-person race between Donald Trump and Nikki Haley after Florida Governor Ron DeSantis dropped out of the race on Sunday. DeSantis posted a video on X, formerly known as Twitter, and threw his support behind Trump. I signed a pledge to support the Republican nominee, and I will honor that

pledge. He has my endorsement because we can't go back to the old Republican guard of yesteryear, a repackage formed of warmed over corporatism that Nikki Haley represents. The days of putting Americans last, of kowtowing to large corporations, of caving to woke ideology are over. Ashley, when DeSantis kicked off his campaign, he was one of the most popular Republican governors in the country, seen as a rising star. He shares essentially the same worldview as Donald Trump. He's next generation. He's a whole lot younger, which voters seem to be interested in in 2024. Why couldn't he catch fire in this campaign? Well, at least they say they want younger candidates, right?

You know, it's so many things. I feel like logistically, we should start with the fact that the campaign was kind of a mess. I mean, it started kind of messy. There was that disastrous Twitter live announcement, and it never seemed to get better. There was a lot of turnover in the campaign. I mean, also, DeSantis isn't quite as, I guess the word we'll use, as charismatic as Trump is. Even from that clip, you can hear he's kind of more robotic than Trump is. Trump is like very sort of like natural and authentic, right? And that's not Ron DeSantis' strong suit, but also just like the message that I think DeSantis leaned on a lot. And I remember a Republican consultant told me once, he's like,

I think it's a really a mistake for Ron DeSantis to lean so much on trying to make America Florida because no one wants that. And it's also like a pitfall that governors fall in when they're running for national office, which is to talk about the things they did in a state like that doesn't really translate so much to voters outside of that state. But at the end of the day, the real answer is, this is Trump's party. Trump has had a hold on this nomination for, you know, a year now. And this really hasn't changed. Not, you know, it wasn't multiple candidates. It wasn't a lot of money, a lot of time spent in early states, nothing really changed the game. This was Trump's to lose from the beginning. Franco, Trump also throughout the

campaign, threw punches at DeSantis for months and months and months in which DeSantis didn't always fight back. You know, Ron DeSanctimonious was the nickname that he tried to give him in the primary fight. And if you look at sort of a graph of DeSantis' polling in the Republican primary, he sort of peaked at his announcement and it was a steady decline after that. He couldn't really seem to overcome Trump's minimizing of him. Yeah. I mean, it was really quite the spectacular fall for DeSantis. And, you know, one strategist told me, like, you know, DeSantis just couldn't distinguish himself from Trump and kind of floated back and forth from kind of Trump populism and then tried to do some of the old school, traditional republicanism. What he told me was when you're trying to be the friend of everybody, you're the friend of no one. And he just could not get traction. And yeah, I mean, it was interesting to hear Trump last night talking about DeSantis because after months and months and months of just, you know, taking him down, calling him sanctimonious, calling him disloyal, he was very gracious in his acceptance of the endorsement. Before we begin, I'd like to take time to congratulate Ron DeSantis and, of course, a really terrific person who had gotten to know his wife, Casey, for having run a great campaign for president. He did. He ran a really good campaign, I will tell you. It's not easy.

Franco, there does seem to be a bigger thing happening here in the line of DeSantis endorsing Trump is that it has been part of a number of endorsements consolidating behind Donald Trump in recent days running up to New Hampshire. So many endorsements. Just before New Hampshire, Trump had picked up Senators Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio. Those two were, of course, his rivals in 2016. And then on Friday, he got Tim Scott, who dropped out of this race in November. He was up on stage with him here in New Hampshire. And if that's not a big enough blow to Nikki Haley, who also shares the same home state of South Carolina, the next day on Saturday, Trump brought up a big group of South Carolina leaders, including the governor, the lieutenant governor. These are the sitting governor and the sitting lieutenant governor, the attorney general and several members of Congress. The current governor, Henry McMaster, actually took the stage and quoted the Spice Girls to tell the crowd why they were there.

You've heard those great philosophers, the Spice Girls. Tell us what you want, what you really, really want. Well, that's what we're here to do, to tell you what we in South Carolina want, what we really, really want. And there he is, right there. You can just hear how much the crowd really ate all that up. Trump is trying to finish Nikki Haley in New Hampshire before she ever gets to her home state of South Carolina. And that was just like a big signal to say, like, you think you have a chance? You're talking about trying to gain momentum into South Carolina? Fat chance. Yeah. And those South Carolina leaders,

they're taking a risk too. I mean, to go against Nikki Haley, the former governor of South Carolina, I mean, that says a lot about their confidence that Trump is going to totally take total control in South Carolina. So as Tam saying, I mean, it's just a real big statement. Tam, how did Nikki Haley respond to DeSantis getting out his endorsement of Trump and specifically his accusation clearly referencing her in his statement saying that she represents the old Republican guard of yesteryear. Let's start with how did she feel about him getting out? Well, she said she felt great. She started her rally last night saying, this is the sound of a two person race. She was super excited about this two person race that she has been trying to have happen for a while now. She has argued that she is the most viable,

best alternative to Donald Trump, that she should be the vessel for anyone who does not want Trump to be the party's nominee again. And now she has that. The problem is that Trump is a pretty dominant force. I mean, not by the standards of an incumbent, but he's not an incumbent. This was an open primary. He's vanquished everyone other than Nikki Haley. And this state now becomes just a massive test for her strength. In terms of the endorsements, she dismissed all of them. She said, oh, you know, those people in South Carolina don't like me because I didn't give them what they wanted. She said, oh, I've beat the governor before. And she said, I don't need the support of these elites.

Oh, the irony that Donald Trump is now the elite establishment and Nikki Haley is the outsider in the Republican primary field. Well, I mean, like that is the state of the Republican Party, though, right? Tammy, do you think it's fair to say that New Hampshire is to Nikki Haley what Iowa was to Ron DeSantis, that this is the state she's gone all in on? And is there really a path for her forward if she doesn't essentially win or make it a really close second tomorrow night? I don't think a close second is good enough. You have to win a state to have a chance to be the nominee.

And this state is the absolute most favorable territory for her. She has been campaigning extremely hard here. She has the endorsement of the state's popular Republican governor. Sound familiar? Ron DeSantis had the endorsement of Iowa's popular Republican governor. And she and her allied super PACs have spent tens of millions of dollars, more than $30 million running ads here in the state, more than essentially double what Trump has spent on the air. So she is putting it all into New Hampshire. And if she doesn't win, then where else will she win? I've spoken to an expert on the delegate process in the Republican primary, and the deck is

stacked against her. Former President Trump and his campaign have made sure of it in terms of how delegates are awarded, which is how you win. And so like a battle of attrition doesn't work in her favor either. She needs a momentum shift. Coming in second in a state where you have laid it all on the table, left it all on the field, that isn't good enough. Okay, well, let's take a quick break, and we'll talk more about this when we get back. And we're back. And Ashley, can you talk us

through the logistics of voting in New Hampshire and who can vote in tomorrow's primary? I mean, there are a couple of interesting things to know about New Hampshire. I mean, unlike most elections and most of the country, we're not going to be seeing early results in New Hampshire because there's no in-person early voting here. They're one of three states that don't have that. And they have a pretty limited mail-in ballot program, which I think is pretty interesting. Most folks are going to be voting in person on election day. Can I just jump in and say that could be a benefit to Nikki Haley to not have a bunch of early votes cast for Rhonda Santos that might be considered votes for her tomorrow? just days before people are heading to the polls. Like it's a good thing for voters. I mean, just in this very specific situation,

because, you know, no one, quote unquote, threw away a vote to Ron DeSantis in this case, right? The other interesting thing about New Hampshire is they have open primaries or like partially open primaries. So if you are an independent voter, which more people are unaffiliated voters in New Hampshire than they are registered Republicans or Democrats,

you can pick and choose which one you're going to vote in. So you can vote in this Republican primary if you want to. And the Secretary of State is fully predicting that a lot of people from all across the aisle will be partaking in voting and casting their ballot in the GOP primary, because they can. And it's where, obviously, where the real race is, because what's happening on the Democratic primary, quote unquote primary, is not where the heat is now. So everyone is fully expecting that we're going to see a lot of independent voters sort of like weigh in on a race in New Hampshire, which, you know, if you look at Iowa, that is a caucus system. It's very closed. You have to be registered with a party to vote. And so you mostly

get, you know, the input from base voters, people like sort of farther to the right of center. So it'll be interesting to see. I mean, as Tam was saying, this is why this is a prime race for Nikki Haley, because the rules and also the demographics here are pretty favorable to her. I am glad you brought up the Democratic primary because it is worth noting that there is one tomorrow as well. President Biden is not going to be on the ballot there due to the inter-party fighting over how to reshape the nominating calendar. But there is a writing campaign on his behalf and some nominal challengers, including Minnesota Congressman Dean Phillips. So is there anything that you're watching there? I mean, mostly what this means for election officials, because like a writing candidate, you have to count by hand. There's no like scanner system. So this is going to be more of just like an arduous

process for people who do the work of counting ballots. I think, you know, the Secretary of State's been talking about this in the press a lot. It's something they're prepared for. But, you know, the good news is, is that they're not anticipating that many people are going to cast ballots that way, right? So I think 88,000 was the estimate from the Secretary of State. But that's still, you know, spread over a bunch of counties. That's still a lot of work for local officials to do. But I mean, in terms of like what it means politically, not much, right? Yeah.

Well, let me just say it could mean something politically. This write-in campaign is, you know, like a pretty shoestring effort. I was out this morning with some campaign volunteers who were standing on a street corner waving signs around trying to get people to honk, trying to raise visibility, spoke to a woman who went to her local print shop and had postcards made to tell people how to vote for Biden. But if President Biden doesn't have a strong showing, even though he's not on the ballot, even though his campaign has nothing to do with this, all of that, you know, it can create a narrative. It can create a, it can feed into an already existing narrative that there isn't a lot of enthusiasm for President Biden. So the people here, the Democrats here who are really grumpy about the primary calendar situation are working

as hard as they can to try to make sure that coming out of New Hampshire, the narrative is, hey, look, Democrats actually support the president and they went out of their way to write him in. They aren't making a lot of predictions. They say he'll win, but winning by at 51 percent or 60 percent versus 80 percent, you know, who knows? You know enough about the campaigns. I want to talk about who really matters the most in these elections. And that is, of course, the voters. I know, Tam, you and Franco have both been out on the streets talking to voters in the state ahead of tomorrow's primary. Tam, I want to start with you and just the things that have stood out to you and what voters have told you these past few days of sort of how they're looking at the race or what matters to them right now.

So what I'll say is that an overwhelming majority of the voters that I spoke to at Nikki Haley events, some of them are excited about Nikki Haley. A lot of them are just excited about having an alternative to former President Trump. And that includes Dawn Hartnett, who I met in Hooks at New Hampshire. She is our last best chance, but a very good person to vote for. I think she'd do a great job. And I really like a lot of her ideas. And what resonates with me a lot is her idea on term limits. And then last night, I was at a Haley rally and talking to voters. And, you know, they were all kind of disappointed that the field had gotten so small so fast that there wasn't this, you know, big competition like there often is in New Hampshire. And there was this feeling that like when it's all over, they hope that Haley could get the nomination, but they are pretty realistic about the state of the party and the state of the race.

And Julie Lemieux is a teacher who I spoke to. She says she's like a moderate middle of the road voter, and she wishes that there were a good option for her, but she's afraid that she's going to end up having to vote for Trump, like vote the party line in the end in November, because she can't bring herself to vote for President Biden. I just think he's the very much more conservative side of the Republican Party than I am. But Biden's the other. There's not people for those of us who are not those very conservative Republicans. So then I feel like I'm kind of voting for party, which I usually don't like to do. But it seems like it's going down party lines if it's going to be Biden or Trump.

And I don't know. I don't think anyone feels that great about those choices. like to do, but it seems like it's going down party lines if it's going to be Biden or Trump. And I don't know, I don't think anyone feels that great about those choices, but this is what we got, but maybe not. So it sounds to me that the sort of inevitability of Trump seems to be settling into voters, even those that are going to vote for Nikki Haley tomorrow night. Absolutely. Frank, are you getting that same impression? I mean, obviously you're following the Trump campaign more closely, but they don't seem to be sweating anythingaley tomorrow night. Absolutely. Frank, are you getting that same impression? I mean, obviously you're following the Trump campaign more closely, but they don't seem to be sweating anything about tomorrow night. No, they don't.

I mean, they're pretty excited. I mean, all the Trump supporters that I speak to, whether it's at rallies or whether it's outside of rallies, they are ready. They are adamant that they are going to be at the polls on Tuesday. And, you know, yesterday I was at,

you know, the bowling alley, which is, you know, typical up here in New England. And I was talking with this guy, Dana Brown. He's from Manchester. He's actually a volunteer. He's going to volunteer at the polls. He insists that he is not a Republican, that he's an independent. But, you know, he says there's no way he's going to vote for Haley. So the Democrat-leaning independents are going to vote for Haley, you know that, just to get Trump out.

Trump is disruption to the norm, and that's what we need. You know, and that kind of sentiment from an independent, you know, has a lot of, you know, a lot of Republicans, moderate Republicans who are concerned, who are trying to stop Trump. You know, I spoke with Fergus Cullen. He's a former New Hampshire Republican chairman. You know, he's actually disappointed in Haley that she hasn't created enough of a contrast with Trump. And he feels that without doing that, she is not going to inspire independents to come out. I very well may end up casting a deeply reluctant vote for her as the best or last opportunity to try and stop Trump. But I can't ignore what I'm seeing, which is a lack of enthusiasm for anybody.

That said, there is not a lack of enthusiasm for Trump. We were at this rally at an arena in Manchester. It was, you know, half as full as it was four years ago when I also attended a rally in that arena. But, you know, I talked to a voter. Now, he's from Massachusetts. Several people were from Massachusetts. But what he said to me really stuck.

He said that, you know, early on, he thought Trump didn't have a chance. He thought that, you know, he had all this baggage. He had lost the election. You know, maybe Ron DeSantis would be good. Maybe somebody younger was needed. He was even looking at Nikki Haley. And then the indictments happened. And Trump talked about how if they can come after me, they can come after you.

And it really resonated with him. And I think it resonates with a lot of Trump voters. That's the argument that Trump is making. And he was like, yeah, I knew that I had to be for Trump. Trump needed me. All right. Well, that is going to be it for us today. A reminder that we're going to be back in your feeds tomorrow, but it's going to be later than usual because we're going to wait until we have the results from the Republican New Hampshire primary. And you'll be hearing from us shortly after we get them. I'm Susan Davis. I cover politics. I'm Ashley Lopez. I cover voting.

I'm Frank Ordonez. I cover the campaign. And I'm Tamara Keith. I cover the White House. And thanks for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast.