The NPR Politics Podcast - Arizona Voters May Decide 2024 — What Are Their Priorities?

Episode Date: November 14, 2023

It's a state with lots of older and younger voters, and whose population is increasingly diversifying. Combine that with a plurality of Arizona voters no longer identifying as Republicans or as Democrats, and conditions are rife for a tough election fight for any candidate. This episode: political correspondent Susan Davis, White House correspondent Asma Khalid, and national political correspondent Mara Liasson.The podcast is edited by Casey Morell. It is produced by Jeongyoon Han. Our executive producer is Muthoni Muturi.Unlock access to this and other bonus content by supporting The NPR Politics Podcast+. Sign up via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org. Connect:Email the show at [e-mail] the NPR Politics Podcast Facebook Group.Subscribe to the NPR Politics Newsletter.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Support for this podcast and the following message come from Autograph Collection Hotels, with over 300 independent hotels around the world, each exactly like nothing else. Autograph Collection is part of the Marriott Bonvoy portfolio of hotel brands. Find the unforgettable at AutographCollection.com. Hi, this is Anne from Pennsylvania. Right now, I'm standing at the bottom of a flight of stairs, working on my physical therapy for my sore foot. When I'm done, I plan to hike all the way up the stairs. This podcast was recorded at 12 38 p.m. on Tuesday, November 14th. By the time you hear it,

things may have changed. For instance, I plan to have climbed all the way up the stairs and gone to bed. Enjoy the show. You have to do that physical therapy. You have to do it. Don't give up on it. Hey there, it's the NPR Politics Podcast. I'm Susan Davis. I cover politics. I'm Asma Khalid. I cover the White House. And I'm Mara Li I cover politics. I'm Asma Khalid. I cover the White House. And I'm Mara Liason, national political correspondent. And Asma, you just got back from Arizona, one of the most important states in the 2024 election.

And this is a state where independents now are the largest voting bloc. They outnumber both Democrats and Republicans. So today we're going to talk about what it might take to win that independent vote. Asma, demographically, Arizona is a really interesting state. It's diverse in terms of age, in terms of race, and all these groups want very different things. That's right. That's right. And you know, when you mention its diversity, Sue, one of the things I will say that I think is so striking demographically about Arizona is that, you know, we always hear about how the younger and the older population of the United States looks really different. Well, that divide is magnified in Arizona more so than anywhere else in the country. You've got a population of seniors

that's about 78 percent white, and then you've got a population of children under the age of 18 that are just 37 percent white. You know, you couple all that with, as you say, independents, which are this very, very large voting bloc in the state. And what everyone will tell you in Arizona, whether they are Democrats, Republicans or independents, is that you need independents if you want to win elections in the state. Mara, Arizona is not the only state like this, but I do think it puts a fine point on it. But independent voters are a growing force in American politics. Yes, because voters in general, but especially voters are a growing force in American politics.

Yes, because voters in general, but especially independents, are just sick of the two-party system. They don't think they're good choices. Big majorities of both parties wish they had somebody else running as their nominee than Joe Biden or Donald Trump. And that's why you see the big interest in third-party candidates, which is a real problem for the incumbent. And people are sick of our political system that doesn't seem to get anything done or solve the problems that Americans want solved. Asma, this is a state where, you know, every place has its own issues. But I'm curious about the border specifically. Arizona is the only swing state that is also a border state. And it's an issue that Republicans are trying to magnify in the 2024 election. I imagine it's an issue that a lot of people you talk to there think about. Sure. And it's an issue that came up of people's own accord, right? I didn't even ask about the border. And it often came up in conversations. You know, one thing, Sue, I will

say is that when you talk about independent voters, is that immigration isn't necessarily their number one priority. In the state of Arizona, for Republicans, it is often in polls their number one priority. I spoke to a Republican pollster there in the state who said that when they have done polling on immigration reform, they found that a large majority of the electorate does want to secure the border, but a large percentage of the electorate also wants to see reform, you know, which is why you saw in the last midterms an initiative to offer people who are in the country who are undocumented, right, these children who are dreamers in state tuition. That is something that passed in the Arizona state elections in the last midterms. So I will say that what I hear from

voters is that they're not necessarily looking for certainly a far left agenda of a kind of an open border, but they're also not looking for build up the highest wall, deport everybody who's already in the country agenda either. Right. They want something in the middle. And frankly, a lot of the recent Republican candidates in Arizona have been speaking about immigration in really, really absolutist terms. And that's not something that resonates with some of those independent voters. And of course, Trump's rhetoric and Trump's campaign officials' rhetoric on immigration has gotten much, much harsher recently. I'm wondering, Asma, if you, you know, we know that Biden is having trouble with Latino voters and young people.

Did you see that around the immigration issue when you were out there? You know, I did not see it as much as I would have expected, given what we have seen in some of the polls. You know, I certainly heard concerns from some voters about the president's age, about inflation and rising prices, because Maricopa County, the area around Phoenix, had experienced particularly high inflation over the course of the last year. You know, I did hear from people also about the border. But one of the things I will say, Mara, that I think doesn't translate in kind of raw data when we look at polls is what the other issues on the ground are. And one thing about Arizona that is very unique to what might happen in 2024 is that there are a bunch of people trying to get an initiative to create a constitutional amendment to protect abortion rights that would be on the November 2024 ballot. And, you know, we see this in election after

election. Whenever abortion rights have been put directly to voters, voters have opted to, you know, expand reproductive rights. And so the thinking in Arizona, and this is something I saw with my own eyes, I was out at the Arizona State Fair where people were gathering signatures for this ballot initiative. And I met voter after voter who told me, I don't align with the Democrats or the Republicans, but I want to protect this right. I'm out here to sign this petition. And the thinking that Democrats have is that maybe some of these voters will show up and vote for an abortion ballot initiative. And while they are, you know, potentially vote for Joe Biden. What I will say, though, is I don't know that that is a guarantee, particularly when you have some of these third party potential candidates out there.

And on that, let's take a quick break. And when we get back, we'll talk more about abortion and the other issues on the minds of Arizona voters. And we're back. And Asma, you were talking about the role that abortion could play in a state like Arizona. And I want to focus on this issue for a minute, because one thing we seem to have learned since the Dobb decision in state after state after state is that the issue on the ballot is very good for Democrats. And I don't think this can be overstated enough in a place like Arizona where Joe Biden or Donald Trump's political fortunes might lie. That's true. And I met voter after voter who was coming up to sign that abortion ballot petition, right, to get that issue on the ballot in November of 2024. A lot of them would tell me that they don't identify with either party, but the thinking the Democrats have, and frankly,

the fear that some Republicans have is that that issue will galvanize turnout that could help Joe Biden. I think there are a couple unknowns there, though, Sue. One is this chatter, right, about third party candidates. But secondly, you know, not everybody who told me that they were signing this ballot initiative is in lockstep behind Joe Biden. I met this woman, Yolanda Espinoza. She felt like this issue was very important. She wants a woman to have a right to choose. But when I asked her about Joe Biden, she was very meh. I don't like Trump. He's bad and not Biden either, because of the things, some of the things that he has done or his family, his kids, and they don't get punished the way somebody

else will get punished. And that's not right just because he was president. Well, his son's not going to get the same punishment as somebody else. Mara, that's fascinating to me. And it's a good reminder that voters don't always vote linearly. You could see how someone might vote to protect abortion rights and then vote for Donald Trump. Right, except that some of them are not going to vote for Donald Trump. And what we've seen in red state after red state, you know, Montana, Kentucky, Ohio, that these abortion referenda passed by big majorities. And this is the rare wedge issue that helps Democrats. For years and years, we've seen wedge issues divide Democrats. This one divides Republicans. And it gets people to the polls.

You could argue and some Democrat analysts have argued that this is why they did better than expected in 2022. And the question is can they get some benefit for the top of the ticket in 2024 from this issue? And, you know, Republicans are tying themselves up in knots. They want a 15-week ban. It's very confusing. And this is what happens when you have minoritarian government. Supreme Court, five of the nine people there have been nominated by presidents who lost the popular vote. This is an issue that had big support. Roe was supported by about two-thirds of voters, and they issued a decision that flew in the face of what the majority of people wanted.

There was a middle ground on abortion. It was called Roe. It was legal abortion up to a certain point with a lot of restrictions. This is what you get. Every time that voters have been allowed to exercise majority rule, that's what referenda are, they have voted in concert with what the majority of people want in the country, which is pro-reproductive rights. That doesn't mean they're pro-abortion. There have to have been a lot of Republicans, especially Republican women, voting for these constitutional protections in places like Kentucky and Ohio. Asma, did you get a sense talking to voters out there? You talked a little bit about this with immigration. Where abortion sort of ranks as a motivating factor and ultimately being the issue

that will be decisive specifically to independent voters? One of the things I hear from people who study independent voters is that their policy positions kind of run the gamut, right? Some of them are very conservative. Some of them are really far left. But they are united, I guess, in their sense of displeasure with the two party system. One of the things also, though, that I hear is that how they vote in a given election depends on who else and what else is on the ballot. And that big what else could be abortion. And the reason that some Republicans are nervous about what's going on in Arizona is that Donald Trump and a Trumpy candidate have not managed to win independent voters since 2016. They lost them in 2018, 2020, and 2022. I think the big unknown, though, is sort of what happens this next election cycle,

particularly if there, you know, are some third party candidates. Well, that's what I want to talk about next, because I would have to think that an independent voter that doesn't identify with either party is particularly ripe for a third-party candidate if their level of dissatisfaction with the two major parties is at pretty historical highs. Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if you see a lot of kind of under-the-counter efforts by Republicans to promote third-party candidates when we get to next fall because third-party candidates hurt the incumbent. And I know there's a lot of talk about how Robert F. Kennedy Jr. might hurt Trump. Third-party candidates hurt incumbents. You know, Donald Trump got 46% of the vote in 2016 and he won. He got 46% of the vote in 2020 and he lost. What was the difference? Third-party candidates took 8% or 9% in 2016 and they took like 1 or 2 percent

in the key states in 2020. Did you talk to voters, Asma? Did they bring up third-party candidates? You get a sense that there's much appetite for that. I mean, they brought them up, some of them, of their own accord. I went to this retirement community. There's a lot of retirement communities, I will say, in and around Phoenix. Some of the oldest in the country, very nice Gulf communities. And so I was out at this place, Sun City West. And very likely to vote. Very likely to vote. Yes. And I met this couple, Jane and Bud Medder. They are longtime Republicans, but they officially left the Republican Party recently. And this is what Jane told me. I still lean toward Republican outlook, but I'm not finding that we have the leadership in that area. And so I'm willing to open my mind and look wider than just the Republican Party.

But the Democrats are not coming up with anything either. So right now, I don't know what I'm going to do when it's time to vote. Wow. So she's not even sure she'll vote, though I will say Jane and her husband Bud both brought up the name of John Huntsman. He's a former ambassador to Russia and China, and his name has been floated as a potential candidate on a third party no labels ticket. And they also brought up Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia, who we heard last week has some potential ambitions to travel the country and create this centrist movement. Don't really know exactly what that means, but they both brought up his name as well. And that's why enthusiasm is so important. We know now that Republican voters, Trump supporters are much more enthusiastic about voting in 2024 than our Democrats. And this is going to be a turnout election. And people have to be the opposite of Jane. In other words, they have to really feel motivated to come out and vote for Biden or Trump. But right now, more of them are motivated to vote for Trump. All right. Let's leave it there for today.

I'm Susan Davis. I cover politics. I'm Asma Khalid. I cover the White House. And I'm Mara Liason, national political correspondent. And thanks for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast. Thank you.