The NPR Politics Podcast - As Abortion Vote Looms, Ohio GOP Hopes To Rein In Ballot Measures

Episode Date: August 4, 2023

Trump's latest charges may further fracture House Republicans — with some in the party motivated to undermine President Biden with investigations and others worried about holding on to split-ticket seats that Biden carried in 2020.And, ahead of a November vote on a proposal that would amend the state's constitution to expand abortion access, state Republicans have scheduled a special election to raise the threshold for all ballot initiatives to 60 percent and impose more strenuous requirements to qualify for a vote.This episode: political correspondent Ashley Lopez, domestic extremism correspondent Odette Yousef, congressional correspondent Deirdre Walsh, senior political editor and correspondent Ron Elving, and Statehouse News reporter Karen Kasler.The podcast is produced by Elena Moore and Casey Morell. Our editor is Eric McDaniel. Our executive producer is Muthoni Muturi. Unlock access to this and other bonus content by supporting The NPR Politics Podcast+. Sign up via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org. Connect:Email the show at [e-mail] the NPR Politics Podcast Facebook Group.Subscribe to the NPR Politics Newsletter.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Support for this podcast and the following message come from the NPR Wine Club, which has generated over $1.75 million to support NPR programming. Whether buying a few bottles or joining the club, you can learn more at nprwineclub.org slash podcast. Must be 21 or older to purchase. Hi, this is Mary Beth from Orlando, Florida, and I'm just getting out of work after receiving one of the nicest compliments I've ever received from a guest. They asked if I've ever worked outside of restaurants because they think I have a voice for NPR. This podcast was recorded at 1221 Eastern Time on Friday, August 4th, 2023. Things may have changed by the time you hear this, but me, I'm still going to be living off the high of pretending like I could sound half as pleasant as any of the wonderful journalists you're about to hear. Enjoy the show. That's so nice. It does have a voice for radio.

That is an NPR voice. Yeah, it's a good compliment. Hey there, it's the NPR Politics Podcast. I'm Ashley Lopez. I cover politics. I'm Odette Youssef. I cover domestic extremism. And I'm Deirdre Walsh. I cover politics. I'm Odette Youssef. I cover domestic extremism. And I'm Deirdre Walsh. I cover Congress. And it's probably not going to surprise anyone that federal criminal charges against a former president of the United States have far-reaching political implications. That's what I want to talk about today. And Deirdre, let's start with how this week's events are being received among

Republicans in Congress so far. It's kind of like the last two indictments of former President Trump. Most Republicans are not addressing the substance of these charges related to January 6th. Instead, they're echoing the former president's argument. Just like he's saying, this is a two-tiered system of justice. This is a weaponization of federal agencies against a political opponent. They're not defending the former president's behavior, but they're attacking the system and arguing that it has a political bias. Yeah, and I wonder if you think if this is something that can maybe help smooth over the divisions in the party, because there has been like on and off a lot of chaos in the caucus. Or do you think this actually could exacerbate those divisions? who are, you know, a lot of them very strident supporters of former President Trump's, who are pushing to impeach President Biden, to impeach Attorney General Merrick Garland, Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. And then there are a lot of the House Republicans that Kevin McCarthy needs to win reelection in November 2024. And there's only a four-seat

majority in the House, and the majority is going to be won or lost based on swing districts. And there are 18 House Republicans who represent districts that Biden won in the last election. And I think that they are concerned that the pressure from the far right, from the Republican base, from the former president is going to put the speaker in this position where they are sort of actively in this impeach Biden mode, you know, marginally popular in swing districts. And instead, the Republican Party's message for now seems to really mirror the former president's message. Yeah. And, you know, in talking about this, I'm just like struck by the way that the country really is living in like two different political worlds. There's the truth, right, the space where Trump acted to stay in power despite the results of a free and fair election. And then there's this whole other world entirely where

Trump used conspiracies to undermine institutions like the press and election administrators and the courts to establish himself as the only source of what's true. Yeah, I mean, Ashley, that alternative reality that you just mentioned didn't just organically emerge, right? Like, that is something that Trump was working to create for his base, really, since he what this indictment straight up calls lies. You know, you remember back in 2017, Trump was mentioning a deep state, you know, fanning a baseless conspiracy theory that really accomplished two things, you know, undermining trust in the government, and also positioning himself as the victim and as really the only one who is speaking out truth against what he was sort of describing as like a corrupt establishment. And one of the people who really explained this to me was Ruth Ben-Ghiat. She is a history professor at New York University. Here's what she said.

The lies are the vehicle to do certain things, to create an alternative worldview. And they don't need to have invented these lies. For example, Trump was able to capitalize on this pre-existing worldview of the deep state from Tea Party and other sources that, you know, all institutions are corrupt, especially the DOJ, the press, the, you know, mainstream media, etc. And he was able to personalize it when he came into legal difficulty. So I think what's really kind of interesting here is that we're actually, you know, through this trial, going to sort of see a deconstruction, right, of some of these false statements, and perhaps even intent behind them. And I also just want to mention, Ashley, I think it's really interesting when you think about this as sort of like a strategy,

you know, think about what Trump named his social media company, you know, Truth Social, you know, and how that aligns with positioning himself as the only truth teller to his base. I mean, I also think that the trend that we've seen over recent years is really going to continue as we watch all of these trials in the coming months regarding the former President Trump. A lot of congressional Republicans have adopted his very aggressive attacks on government institutions. I mean, the FBI, for example, wasn't that long ago that Republicans on the Hill held up the FBI as sort of a institution as a model of law and order and about an agency that the Republican Party stood behind. Now, a lot of Republicans on the Hill are attacking the FBI, wanting to, you know, oust Christopher Wray. And I expect those attacks to continue.

And I think it does have an impact in terms of how the public views these institutions. And I know we're entering a world of hypotheticals here, but I am curious what happens when a figure like Trump is off the political scene, whether that's because he faces criminal penalties or loses the election or really any other reason? Like what happens to all of these spun up universes? Odette, let's start with you. Yeah. I mean, so we are so far into conspiracy land in some parts of America. You know, if Trump is not elected again or if there are actual consequences resulting from these indictments of him, conspiracy land doesn't just like disappear.

You know, people have now been operating with this mindset that institutions cannot be trusted, the press cannot be trusted. Really, all the traditional sources of facts and authority that we've looked to in America have been called into question. And so whether or not Trump stays, you know, sort of politically relevant, you know, that is a reality that's going to continue to exist. And it's something that I think as a whole of society, we're really gonna have to think about, well, how do we walk back from that brink? I mean, I just think in terms of how much Congress and the Republican Party has changed since January 6, 2021. In the wake of that attack of the Capitol, I mean, Republicans were evacuated from the House chamber, from the Senate chamber. I mean, all members of Congress

were evacuated. And a lot of Republicans at the time publicly rebuked President Trump's role in the attack and were sort of more willing to push back against the occasional sort of far-right member of Congress who repeated something false from the former president. Now, when people say things, you know, sort of just on the House floor or in debates or in committee meetings about Biden not being elected president or he's not the real president, some of these far right conservatives, a lot of their colleagues just kind of shrug their shoulders and don't really correct them. You know, you see the impact in polls. You know, we're now at the point where 70% of Republicans say that Joe Biden wasn't elected president in 2020. I mean, that number has come

way up since January 6. And I think it's a result of months and months and months of former President Trump and his allies and these groups that Odette has been covering and talking about repeating these falsehoods. And it's sort of baked in now, and it's definitely changed the debate in the Capitol. And there's fewer and fewer members, elected members of Congress that are willing to push back on some of these false claims. Well, we're going to take a break, but Deidre Odette, don't go too far away. We'll have you back for Can't Let It Go. Coming up, a trip to Ohio where a vote next week could have big implications on voting and reproductive rights in the state. Hands selected for their inherent craft, each hotel tells its own unique story through distinctive design and immersive experiences, from medieval falconry to volcanic wine tasting. Autograph Collection is part of the Marriott Bonvoy portfolio of over 30 hotel brands around the world.

Find the unforgettable at AutographCollection.com. Support for NPR and the following message come from Carnegie Corporation of New York, working to reduce political polarization through philanthropic support for education, democracy, and peace. More information at carnegie.org. And we're back, and I'm joined by editor-correspondent Ron Elving and Karen Kastler of Statehouse News in Ohio. Hi, Karen. Great to be here. And today we're talking about a referendum to expand abortion access in Ohio, which is expected to appear on that state's ballot this November.

But before voters can even weigh in on all of that, a Republican-backed effort could make that ballot measure and others harder to enact. And that all comes down to a special election next week. Karen, let's start with what's going before election next week. Karen, let's start with what's going before voters next week. Well, what's going before voters? There's one issue on this statewide special election ballot, issue one, and this would be a constitutional amendment that would require 60% voter approval for all future constitutional amendments. Not this one,

but all future ones. It would also change the requirements for groups that want to get signatures to bring a constitutional amendment before voters. Right now, those groups only have to get signatures from half of Ohio's counties. This would change to getting signatures from all of Ohio's counties, rural and urban. And of course, opponents say that that could make it much more difficult, not only to get to the ballot with that higher signature threshold in a sense, but also the higher threshold of going from a simple majority for approval to 60 percent. So not just harder to get on a ballot, but also harder to pass. Absolutely. And the argument has been that special interests have the ability to get onto the ballot and pass constitutional amendments with

ease, which is not what citizens groups will tell you. But this would make it so that really you'd have to have a lot of money to not only get on the ballot, but also get that 60 percent to get a constitutional amendment passed. Yeah. And I got to say the timing of these changes is definitely interesting, right? Because as I mentioned, voters in the state are expected to weigh in on abortion access, a hot button issue, and that's via a ballot measure. Karen, what effect would these proposed rules have on all that? Well, and I think that that's the critical thing here, the timing of that, because this discussion about changing the threshold from a simple majority to 60% for constitutional amendments started last

year, and then lawmakers weren't able to put it onto the May ballot, so they chose to put it onto the August ballot. What's interesting about that is that they banned most August special elections in a law that passed last year. But then the Ohio Supreme Court said, okay, well, that ban doesn't apply if lawmakers want to put a constitutional amendment before voters in August. So that's how we get to that point. And then there is an abortion access and reproductive rights amendment that's coming in November. And that's a big part of this as well. And I want to hear your thoughts on this, because on its face, this is like a seemingly procedural change. But it's hard not to see this

as like a direct reaction to the big and so far pretty effective backlash at the state level to the Supreme Court's abortion ruling. Yes, it's impossible really to see it without seeing abortion in the pathway. This is why it is a big deal in Ohio. It's why it's a big deal to get it on the ballot now. And of course, it's why they want to raise the threshold to 60%, because they can see the numbers like everybody else in the polls, including a fairly recent USA Today Suffolk University poll that sowed, it was only about 500 Ohioans, I should say, but this is nonetheless a poll, and it says 58% back the abortion rights amendment. So with 50% plus one, that would easily pass. And of course,

with 60%, it would fall short. That is not an accident. We have seen polling all over the country that shows that something like 60 some percent of the people think there should be at least some access to abortion, that it shouldn't always be banned. And that seems to be the direction some states are moving. So this is clearly a fight over just how many people it takes to make a majority on a hot-button social issue. Yeah, and I imagine lawmakers in Ohio were looking closely at Kansas, another sort of Midwest-leaning conservative state that voters weighed in on a ballot measure there. And it kind of surprised all the conservative lawmakers there, too. It surprised a lot of people. I went to high school in Kansas, and I did not expect that result. And it came down. It was quite decisive. And they saw something very similar in Kentucky, another red state. And we've seen that in swing states like Wisconsin

and Michigan, too. Karen, I wonder how much attention this has attracted in the state. I'm curious as to, like, what voters even make of all this. Well, one of the reasons that most August special elections were banned and that law I mentioned that passed last year was because of low turnout. People don't really turn out to vote in August special elections. But this time there seems to be a lot of interest. This is a divisive and controversial issue. There's a coalition that is opposed to issue one that's enormous, like nothing I've ever seen in Ohio. And while the people who are supporting it are also

pretty strongly supportive as well, that's really driven up voter turnout much higher than we would have expected for a summertime special election. Turnout's probably still going to only be about 30 percent, but that's a big number potentially for an August special election vote when people are, you know, on summer vacation and doing other things rather than thinking about voting. Yeah, and Ronna, I mean, Ohio isn't the only state where lawmakers lately are trying to make it a little harder for a ballot measure specifically to pass, or at least raising that threshold. I wonder what you make of states creating new limits on, you know, direct democracy, right? One of the few ways voters can directly weigh in on an issue as opposed to having to just weigh in on a candidate who will then weigh in on an issue.

That's right. I think as a general rule. You'll find that where a state government is controlled by one party, and particularly when its legislature is quite aggressive, as we have seen from Ohio and some of these other states we've mentioned already, in terms of their regulating of social issues, you will see that those are the places where a popular movement is underway to get a referendum on the ballot as a sort of check to that legislature. And then you'll see the legislature push back and say, we're not so sure about these referendums. Maybe they should have a special threshold to get over. Hey, look at the United States Constitution. It takes three quarters of the states to ratify.

Well, there's an apples and oranges instance, but that is the kind of argument that's raised against it. Essentially, if you can't change the state legislature, perhaps you can go around it with a state referendum, and the legislatures don't like that. And Ron's absolutely right. That is the argument that the pro-Issue 1 people have been putting out there. But of course, the anti-Issue 1 people have been saying that there's so much gerrymandering in Ohio that there is no real voice for some people in the legislature. And another thing that's really interesting in Ohio, too, is we heard the complaints and concerns about early voting from Republicans. They're really pushing early voting and telling people, and this is a

slogan they're using, it's okay to vote that way. And so it'll be interesting to see how many Republicans pick up on that and whether it will affect the final vote in terms of early voting. Drawing a lot of people right now to Ohio, though it's expected a lot of those are against issue one. I mean, we should point out that the issue of abortion access in the Dobbs decision from the Supreme Court, basically kick this question to the states. And I guess what states are sort of like playing with is whether how much of that question is left up to them as lawmakers or to voters. And that's a pretty big decision to not have like sort of sorted as to who gets to answer it. That's right. If you're going to give the power to the states, the question becomes, who has the power in the states? Is it the legislature? Is it the people? Is it the Supreme Court of that state? Is it some other court in that state? Is it the governor in that state?

And we're going to see that struggle play out in one venue after another for years to come. Yeah. All right. Well, let's leave it there for today. Karen Kasler of Statehouse News in Ohio, thanks for joining us today. Absolutely. It's great to there for today. Karen Kasler of Stay House News in Ohio. Thanks for joining us today. Absolutely. It's great to talk to you. And thanks to Ron as well. We'll take a quick break. And when we come back, it's time for Can't Let It Go. And we're back.

And it's time to end the show like we do every week with Can't Let It Go, the part of the show where we talk about the things from the week that we just can't stop talking about, politics or otherwise. And, you know, I'll go first. A story, kind of a local news story, although Texas is so big, like how local this is, is an open question. We're talking about Willie the rodeo goat. He's in South Texas. And he escaped from an arena enclosure about a month ago, but he has been found, which is great news. Apparently, the goat had been hidden in a sugar cane and corn fields around the area and had avoided capture for weeks, which is wild because it created this huge manhunt, or I guess goat hunt, where residents appear. How do you hunt for a goat? I guess they're kind of slippery creatures. Wait, so what was a goat doing at the rodeo in the first place? Apparently, like goats are a pretty like standard part of a rodeo event.

I mean, they could either be sold for meat. They're like as like an agricultural thing or they can be tied or sometimes like they're like participants can like ride a tethered goat. Yeah, they're apparently like a part of this whole kind of event. What struck me is how many resources were put towards finding this one rodeo goat. Apparently, residents had people searching for the goat, which is a her, by the way. I'm sorry, I misgendered this goat. On horses, all-terrain vehicles, and by a drone as well, and local businesses helped out by donating, like,

90 prizes and gifts worth of, like, $5,000 total. This is very Texas, including brisket and bales of hay and beef jerky and all that to anyone who found her. And Willie was found not too far away, it turns out, about a mile away. A friend of, I guess, the person who owned the goat found the goat on Monday in his backyard, which was less than a mile away from where she escaped. Yeah, very Texas story. Free Willie, man.

Like, how many championships did Willie win that he was, like, that famous? You know, that's a good question. You would think a lot, right? I have no idea. Very prized, though, Willie, the rodeo goat. Well, let's go to you, Odette. What can't you let go of this week? All right. So what I can't let go of is another animal story. Love it. This one in Florida. Today marks the beginning of the Florida Python Challenge. Do you all know about this?

No, I don't, but it scares me. Yes, I'm from Florida. Okay. Well, so this is like a yearly event that the state puts on as a conservation effort to combat the invasive Burmese python. And so it's held in the Everglades, and people come in from all over the world to hunt pythons for nine days.

And there's a bounty. The person who kills the most pythons ends up winning, I think, a $10,000 prize. And then there's also other prizes for the person who catches the biggest python and so on. That's not enough money. No.

Creepy. There's not enough money in the whole world. People get into this. Yeah. I mean, like I was reading about pythons caught in past challenges and one was 19 feet long. And I mean, it's just wild.

Where do you put them? I mean, I guess if you kill them, you just dispose of them. Yeah. I mean, they are biodegradable, I guess. But that is horrifying. And I'm saying this as someone who grew up in Florida, not far from the Everglades. So, yikes.

Deidre, what can't you let go of this week? Well, I guess three is a trend because the thing I can't let go of is also animal related. Have you guys seen this viral video of the sun bear, Angela, in China at the zoo? Yeah. Oh, yeah. So, okay, I'm curious because I initially was like, no way that's a bear. That's someone in a bear suit. And that's the big controversy. This sun bear, which is like a rare endangered species bear, is in the zoo in China. And it's standing up on its hind legs waving at people it's like looks like a very human stance if you've seen the video um it's very cute but it has like sort of saggy skin at the back so it almost looks like

somebody put on a bear suit and it just didn't quite fit it was too big for and then it turns out this another zoo in China had allegedly like marketed a dog as a lion. So there was a lot of skepticism about whether the bear was real. So I did my research and it turns out the sun bear was real, but I think the zoo was sort of like genius because they market, like they put out a statement in the voice of the sun bear. Like, I know there's skepticism about, you know, whether, whether I'm real the voice of the sun bear. I know there's skepticism about whether I'm you. I am the sun bear. But also, why are you putting out a statement?

It makes it sound like it's not real, but tourism is up at the zoo and more people are coming. Adding fuel to the fire. I got to say, I love this story because, I mean, shout out to my little brother. For years, he has been trying to convince people that most bears we see are people in bear suits. It's like his weird, like, Bigfoot thing. Like, everyone has a Loch Ness Monster, and this is my little brother's, that he's convinced that a lot of bears are actually people in bear suits,

but that's so funny. Has he seen the sun bear? Yes, I sent it to him. I sent him the video, and he says, I'm telling you, it starts now. So he was very excited. Uh-oh. We've got a conspiracy theorist on our hands, Ashley.

On theme. We're all on theme today. All right. That's a wrap for today. Our executive producer is Mithoni Maturi. Our editor is Eric McDaniel. Our producers are Elena Moore and Casey Morrell. Research and fact-checking by our intern, Lee Walden.

Thanks to Krishna Dev Kalimer, Lexi Schapiro, and Andrew Sussman. I'm Ashley Lopez. I cover politics. I'm Odette Youssef. I cover domestic extremism. And I'm Deirdre Walsh. I cover Congress. And thank you for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast.