The NPR Politics Podcast - AZ, OH Primaries: Independents Stranded, MAGA Senate Test

Episode Date: March 19, 2024

Is reform coming to Arizona's presidential preference election, which blocks independent voters from participating? And Donald Trump and Ohio's governor have backed different candidates in that state's Republican Senate primary. Here's why Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown would probably prefer to face Trump's pick.This episode: political correspondent Susan Davis, senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro, and KJZZ political editor Ben Giles.Our producers are Jeongyoon Han, Casey Morell & Kelli Wessinger. Our editor is Eric McDaniel. Our executive producer is Muthoni Muturi. Listen to every episode of the NPR Politics Podcast sponsor-free, unlock access to bonus episodes with more from the NPR Politics team, and support public media when you sign up for The NPR Politics Podcast+ at plus.npr.org/politics.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Support for this podcast and the following message come from Autograph Collection Hotels, with over 300 independent hotels around the world, each exactly like nothing else. Autograph Collection is part of the Marriott Bonvoy portfolio of hotel brands. Find the unforgettable at AutographCollection.com. Hey, NPR Politics Podcast, this is Lydia. And Gideon. And we're at CPKC Stadium where we just watched our Kansas City Current win their home opener. This podcast was recorded at 1 16 p.m. on Tuesday,

March 19th. Things may have changed by the time you hear this, but we will still be so excited to be home to the only dedicated stadium for women's sports in the world. Okay, enjoy the show. KC, baby. I love a super fan. No, and that is very cool because that was a pet project of Pat Mahomes, the quarterback of the Kansas City Chiefs, and yeah, the only stadium in the world built for a women's sports team. That's awesome. Hey there, it's the NPR Politics Podcast. I'm Susan Davis. I cover politics.

I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent. And we're talking about today's Arizona presidential primary. So Ben Giles, the political editor from member station KJZZ is joining us today. Welcome back, Ben. Hi there. So regular listeners of this podcast will know we have talked a lot lately about the importance of independent voters in Arizona. They make up about a third of registered voters in the state. But today they're really not that important in Arizona. Explain that, Ben.

Right. Well, today is a unique vote. We don't call it a primary here in Arizona. We go to great lengths to call it the presidential preference election. How fancy. And yeah, there's a couple of reasons for that. But the key one that election officials spend a lot of time every four years educating voters in Arizona about is that you have to be registered with a political party to participate. And in this case, there's only Republican and Democrats

on the ballot. So you have to be a registered Republican or a registered Democrat to vote in what we call the PPE today. That's different from the rest of Arizona's primaries, which are open to independents. They can request an early ballot and choose, do they want to vote on the Democratic side of things or do they want to vote on the Republican side? Or they can just go to the polls and show up and say, I want to vote Republican or Democrat. But if you're an independent in Arizona today, don't go to the polls. You're just going to get turned away. It just seems kind of amazing to me for a state that politically seems increasingly influential because of the element of independent voters. And I just wonder if there's any efforts to sort of change the system the way it is.

There is. There is a citizen initiative in the field gathering signatures right now that would change all Arizona primaries, but a key provision affects the PPE. It basically says, unless a political party like the Republican Party or the Democratic Party pays for the PPE, the parties would be required under this new law to allow independents to participate. Because right now, the PPE is paid for by taxpayers. It's run by Arizona counties. But again, independents, about a third of the electorate can't vote. The one thing they could do as of a couple weeks ago is they could re-register temporarily as a Republican or a Democrat. I did talk to one voter, Patricia Coughlin, who did that, re-registered as a Republican, cast her early ballot,

and then has already re-registered as an independent before Election Day. I just feel that it is our duty to vote. We're lucky to be able to. And it was frustrating to me that I couldn't, you know, cast a ballot. She wanted to cast basically a protest vote against Donald Trump. She voted for Nikki Haley, but she made it clear that it was just wanting to take a minute to exercise that right to vote. Dominico, today's election is kind of interesting because Donald Trump and Joe Biden are already the presumptive nominees for their party's nomination. So are you looking at today's vote in some ways as a sense of where the protest vote,

like that example is in a state like Arizona, especially when you consider that both of these candidates are pretty unpopular there? Yeah, I do think so in some respects, if that is the case. But, you know, I'm more looking toward the general election and what this kind of thing means. You know, when you have independents who are making up something like 42 percent of the country now, when you look at Gallup numbers, it's near an all time high.

What you wind up having is that when you have a closed primary like this, you have the most activist people in your party who then wind up determining who your nominees are. And this isn't the Senate primary today. That's happening later this year. But the Senate primary is someplace where we're seeing that kind of play out to an extent because you have someone like Carrie Lake, who's seen as the most extreme candidate on the Republican side, and Ruben Gallego, who's certainly more progressive, when you've had Senate candidates in this state who have run as, quote unquote, independent. And, you know, there is an independent streak in a place like Arizona, Nevada, the West, which is doesn't quite, you know, go across the lines or fit the kinds of things that we normally hear about for Democratic and Republican

politics. I mean, that raises sort of the existential question to me about independent voters is how independent are they really? I think sometimes when we talk about independent voters, we align them with swing voters, but that isn't always necessarily the case. Yeah, no, it's not the case at all. I mean, what a lot of studies have found is something like seven to 9% of people are truly persuadable. What you have is a problem with the perceptions of the parties. You know, people don't want to say they're a Republican or they don't want to say they're a Democrat. But so they're happy to wear independent as a badge. But more often than not, most people vote the way they've always voted, which is Democratic or Republican. And they're not swinging back and forth. And which is why a lot of these sort of

magic middle third party groups like No Labels are really struggling to find a issue priority platform that can appeal across the spectrum, because there just aren't that many people who are actually, quote unquote, in the middle. Ben, does that ring true to you in Arizona? Yeah, I would say the best campaigns here in Arizona understand that. And when they go after independent voters, they're looking for voters who maybe historically have polled a Democratic ballot in a primary or polled a Republican ballot in a primary. They're looking sort of for the base within that independent voting bloc, which is important, is influential, but as Domenico said, does have tendencies to skew to one party or the other.

Ben, have you seen any coordinated protest movements about the ballot today? Obviously, against President Biden, there's been some in states like Michigan. Is there anything happening in Arizona? Right. We don't have similar options to other states. We don't have, for say, an uncommitted vote on the ballot. And we don't allow write-in candidates either. So there is a small movement for Democrats to cast votes for Marianne Williamson, who's on the ballot here. Not because they support her candidacy, but because they're trying to encourage the Biden administration to come to a permanent ceasefire in Gaza. So there are some party activists who are pushing for that.

I'm not sure how significant that will be when the results come in. That campaign just started a week ago, well after early voting was underway. All right. Let's take a quick break and we'll talk more about today's primaries when we get back. And we're back. And today is also primary day in Ohio, where one of the biggest questions is which Republican Senate candidate will win the nomination to take on Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown this November. Domenico, this has been a pretty ugly primary so far. Who is leading in this case? Oh, my goodness. It has been so ugly. I mean, some 43 million dollars have been spent just to win the Republican nomination here. And the leading candidate is someone named Bernie Marino, who is a car salesman. He's owned a string of car dealerships, who former President Trump

has endorsed. And we know in Republican primaries, that carries considerable weight. Most of his ads are mentioning that Donald Trump has endorsed him. He's up against state Senator Matt Dolan, who has spent some $20 million on this race between him and outside groups that are supporting him on campaign ads. He has the endorsement of Ohio Governor Mike DeWine and former Senator Rob Portman. So you see a very clear establishment versus, you know, Trump portion of the Republican Party here. And Democrats are also trying to boost Marino running an outside group, running an ad that is, you know, trying to say that Marino is too conservative for the state, which has the effect of boosting him in a Republican primary. Although I think I have to pause here. We have to talk about vocabulary a little bit as so much has changed in politics.

I get what you're saying when you say establishment versus Trump, but it almost feels like in this case, Trump is the establishment. It's not just Trump that has endorsed, but fellow Republican Senator J.D. Vance. A lot of the sort of MAGA wing of the party is behind Marino. It's almost like an establishment versus old guard split in the primary versus – Former traditional once establishment types. Yeah, former establishment versus current establishment is probably the better way to put it. And I'm glad you brought that up because in this race, we're seeing a similar tactic where one party is trying to elevate the candidate that they want to win against, which does tell you that Democrats at least also see Bernie Marino as the best candidate in this race for someone that Sherrod Brown might

have a chance to beat in what is ultimately likely to be a state that Donald Trump carries this November. That's right. Yeah. And they've spent millions of dollars on one ad in particular in trying to elevate Marino as, quote unquote, too conservative, too MAGA, you know, which indicates how, you know, Sherrod Brown might run against Marino in a general election. Marino is the one who is leading in the polls right now. And he's had quite a bit of scandal and drama surrounding his

candidacy. Can you explain that a little bit, Domenico? Yeah, I mean, in particular, there's been this report from the Associated Press that's really made its way around now, even into ads, by the way, that just started running this week in Ohio about Marino having had an adult friend finder profile that apparently his campaign says was set up by a former intern or the intern says it was a quote unquote prank that he was playing where it has Marino seeking other men essentially. And there's been another ad in this race that's been run against Frank LaRose who is the secretary of state by a group called Leadership for Ohio that's been attacking him on of people now have been using to be able to show that Marino previously had been fairly pro-gay rights and now has sort of done an about face on a lot of that based on having to run as a conservative in this primary.

Yeah, it's also another attack ad in the race in the close is an outside group that supports Matt Dolan is running an ad against Marino over that AP story. And in it is calling him creepy, trying to run against him there. So it's clearly an issue in the close of the race. Just a lot of mud and dirt being flung around in this. You know, having both of you here, it's interesting to me because as we're talking about Ohio and Arizona, which are obviously very different states politically, but there is one of the through lines of this election year, which is abortion. And Ohio is one of many states that has proven that when it's put on the ballot,

that it's very motivating to voters. Last year, the abortion rights side won in a ballot referendum fight in Ohio. Sherry Brown, as most Senate Democrats, are going to run a very focused campaign on protecting abortion rights. And Ben, in Arizona, there's a similar ballot initiative to try to get something on the November ballot. What is the status of that?

Well, they're still collecting signatures to get a constitutional amendment on the ballot in November that would enshrine the right to an abortion in Arizona's constitution. That is widely expected to succeed and get on the ballot. And it's also widely expected to be a and get on the ballot. And it's also widely expected to be a winning issue on the ballot in November. So there are a lot of Democrats who are maybe trying to not necessarily ride the coattails of that ballot initiative, but support it in their own campaigns and tie it to their campaigns in a way that, you know, makes abortion an issue, not just on the ballot, but on the campaign trail. I know that even, you know, it's not just the presidential in Arizona. You've got a competitive

Senate race. There's a couple of competitive House races already. You're hearing House and Senate Democratic candidates try to make Republicans go on record about this ballot initiative. It feels like this is something you're going to be hearing a lot about in Arizona campaigning. Yeah, yeah. We're already seeing some of that moderation from Republican candidates on abortion. U.S. Senate candidate Carrie Lake previously in 2022 campaigned in support of a near total territorial abortion ban that was put on the books in Arizona in 1860s. There's been a lot of Democratic ads running tape of her in support of that very old law. But now we've seen Lake on the campaign trail just in recent weeks say she would support a 15-week ban and also crucially say she opposes a federal ban, which is important to know as she might be voting on a federal ban

if she was elected to U.S. Senate. Yeah, I find it fascinating that this time around, you know, the National Republican Senatorial Committee, the NRSC, which helps run the Senate races and tries to get Republicans elected, they had been sort of at war in some respects with Trump and trying to nominate candidates they think who could be more acceptable to a broader public, more middle ground voters. This time around, they tried to bring Trump into the tent. But Ohio and Arizona are the two cases in which a lot of Republicans in Washington wish they could have had different candidates, perhaps than Bernie Marino and Kerry Lake. But these are the two cases where Democrats are hopeful that they can hold on to seats in both of those places when we

know that the majority that they have is so, so slim. Not just hold on to seats in both of those places when we know that the majority that they have is so, so slim. Not just hold on in Arizona, but get a seat back for Democrats since Kyrsten Sinema had abandoned the party a few years ago. That's true. Good point. Ben Giles, as always, thank you for bringing your reporting to the pod. Thank you. That's it for us today. I'm Susan Davis. I cover politics. And I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent. And thanks for listening today. I'm Susan Davis. I cover politics. And I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent. And thanks for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast. That is it for us today.

I'm Susan Davis. I cover politics. Domenico. Oh, I'm sorry. Say it again. Go ahead.