The NPR Politics Podcast - Biden: 2024 Election Is About The Fight For Democracy

Episode Date: January 5, 2024

President Biden used his first campaign event of 2024 to call out his likely opponent, former President Donald Trump, for the threat he poses to American democracy, calling the issue a 'sacred cause' for the race ahead.Plus, uphill climbs in congressional races this year, and Can't Let It Go. This episode: political correspondents Ashley Lopez & Susan Davis, and congressional correspondent Claudia Grisales.This episode was edited by Erica Morrison. It was produced by Jeongyoon Han and Casey Morell. Our executive producer is Muthoni Muturi.Unlock access to this and other bonus content by supporting The NPR Politics Podcast+. Sign up via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org. Connect:Email the show at [e-mail] the NPR Politics Podcast Facebook Group.Subscribe to the NPR Politics Newsletter.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Support for this podcast and the following message come from Autograph Collection Hotels, with over 300 independent hotels around the world, each exactly like nothing else. Autograph Collection is part of the Marriott Bonvoy portfolio of hotel brands. Find the unforgettable at AutographCollection.com. Hi, this is Pete in Orange County. I'm currently practicing questions for my civics test, which takes place tomorrow morning, where hopefully I'll pass and become a U.S. citizen. Thank goodness for the years of preparation I've had by listening to the Politics Podcast.

This podcast was recorded at 410 Eastern Time on Friday, January 5th, 2024. Things may have changed by the time you hear it, and hopefully I'll be a U.S. citizen. Okay, here's the show. Hopefully, indeed. I hope he passed. I know. I hope my mom studied for that test. I think she passed because of me. We should make everyone on the podcast team take the test and see who scores the best. Fail it by now. I took it once for fun because I'm a nerd and I was surprised at like the fact that

there were a couple of hard ones in there that took me a while. Hey there, it's the NPR Politics Podcast. I'm Ashley Lopez. I cover voting. I'm Claudia Grisales. I cover Congress. And I'm Susan Davis.

I cover politics. Today on the podcast, it's been three years since the January 6th attack at the Capitol. The insurrection has changed the way America talks about democracy. President Biden gave a speech today near Valley Forge, Pennsylvania. Of course, that's a famous revolutionary war site.

So there's a significance in picking that as a location for a campaign event. Biden framed the 2024 election as an inflection point where Americans have to decide whether or not democracy and democratic values are what the country believes in. Today, I make this sacred pledge to you, the defense, protection and preservation of American democracy will remain as it has been the central cause of my presidency. So Biden's campaign in 2020 said they were fighting, quote, a battle for the soul of the nation. And now you can hear him using the events of January 6th specifically as like a stark example of, you know, this is what the country faces if Trump is reelected.

Sure. I mean, there's clearly connective tissue here between Joe Biden's reason for running the first time in 2020, which he said was in response to Trump's reaction to the racist uprising in Charlottesville, healing a soul of a nation, protecting and defending American norms. And again, in 2024, he said today that it would be the central cause of his presidency. What I find interesting about this speech is it's what I would kind of call a better angel speech. It's just speaking to the ideals and values of American citizens. It wasn't a policy

speech. He was not running on an agenda. There was nothing affirmative that he would do as president. It was basically just making the case for keeping things the way they are, for preserving the powers of the presidency as they exist today, in contrast to his likely opponent, who is very openly running on remaking the idea of how far executive power should go, having a much more emboldened executive. And frankly, as Joe Biden said today, Donald Trump has also been very clear that he would use the power of his office to exact revenge on his political enemies. I think one big challenge that Biden is facing when we look at the American electorate is that

he's losing the audience, if you will, in terms of what role Trump is played or has played in the January 6th attack. And we see that in a recent poll by the Washington Post and the University of Maryland, that within a three-year span, we've seen the percentage of Americans who see that Trump played a role in the siege. That number has declined. This poll found that that number was at about 53%. That's down from 60% in 2021. So this is clearly on the mind of the president and the Biden-Harris campaign because they're trying to fight that narrative back. The House Select January 6th Committee is no longer out there telling their part of the story in terms of what they found in their bipartisan investigation. And Republicans have been able to fill in that gap with more disinformation. I do think that to me might speak to how much of Biden's speech today was backward looking, sort of recounting the events of January 6th

and recounting all the court challenges to the election and the legitimacy of it. Because in some ways, either many Americans have forgotten or don't view it the same way. They don't blame Trump to the same extent that the president does. And it was almost like a history lesson. Let me remind you of what my opponent did. And yes, there was an element of it that was about this year in this election. But I was surprised at the balance of how much of it was backward looking versus the question put to the country in the coming 11 months. Yeah. And you can also see Trump kind of making the same argument,

right? Like as I was watching Biden's speech, I was like my inbox was getting a lot of Trump, you know, the Democrats are a threat to democracy. You know, he's also making the case that his campaign is about protecting democracy from the threat they see from Biden and Democrats, mostly on issues of like free speech and stuff like that. That is true. From a conservative standpoint, you could argue that they don't like the direction that liberals and Democrats are taking the country in. But I also think when we talk about this, we have to make clear that a lot of Republicans' views are predicated on false information. think democracy is at stake if you think that Joe Biden stole an election, right? Like if you think the sitting president is illegitimately elected, you would say, yeah, of course democracy is at stake in 2024. That same Washington Post poll that Claudia referenced also indicated that a third of self-identified Republicans believe that January 6th was orchestrated by the FBI. It's based on a conspiracy theory. That's not an insignificant portion of Republican voters. So yes, Republican voters and Donald Trump

continues to falsely allege that the election was stolen. He continues to stoke all of these conspiratorial ideas. So I think that we have to keep that in context when we talk about, you know, voters seeing democracy on the ballot. A lot of voters see democracy on the ballot based off of false information. Yeah. And Claudia, immediately after the insurrection, members of Congress, I mean, Republicans and Democrats alike were quick to decry what happened, right, to criticize those involved. And now the tune for them, for a lot of them, mostly Republicans, has changed, which I think also kind of shapes how Republicans talk about what happened. Initially, we saw members such as then Republican leader Kevin McCarthy denounce Trump in terms of his role in the attack. But he was a large part, McCarthy himself, of helping rehabilitate Trump's image and also a normal tourist visit. This is what a Republican from Georgia fights over the tapes, the videos from the attack.

Those have been released in more recent times. In the last year, House Speaker Mike Johnson has released versions of the tape that focus on areas of the attack, of the siege that do not show active violence. And so you have seen kind of Republicans take that and try and whitewash that day, whereas Democrats continually talk about what actually happened and what they went through and also who played a role. And it's interesting, too, in terms of just how President Biden talked about dereliction of duty for former President Trump and his role in the attack. And that's exactly the language that the House Select Committee used and that Democrats use today. Yeah. And we talked about how the fight for democracy is obviously at the root of the campaigns for both presidential

frontrunners. But how is this factoring into congressional campaigns so far? So we're seeing that some of these candidates who are getting or hoping to get into these races and get into office are actually directly tied to the January 6th attack in some way. For example, Capitol Police Officer Harry Dunn announced today that he's running for a House district seat. And we also know other characters who were actually part of the siege are running for office. Jacob Chansley, this is the so-called QAnon shaman who was seen in images and was also charged in relation to the attack. And we should note that he even pointed to Trump as playing a role in the attack. But this continues to play

out in the 2020 election. We saw election deniers really pay the price. And we'll see if that'll happen again this coming year. The politics of it are much harder for Republicans. Democrats' position on January 6th is very clear. President Biden, as he articulated it today, is the unified party position about how to frame January 6th and what happened and what's at stake. For Republicans, it's more complicated because, as Claudia noted, today Republicans either don't want to talk about it at all. Or they kind of want to muddy the waters. Well, release the tapes. We'll find out the real truth, the idea that there's still a real truth to be found out there. But there's no oxygen to run in a Republican primary as a Republican saying

Joe Biden is the legitimately elected president of the United States. So even if you're not actively running as an election denier, you're probably actively running for Trump's endorsement. And Trump is not going to endorse anyone who undermines his claims about the election. Well, let's take a break. When we get back, more on Congress. And we're back. Of course, an election year doesn't just mean a presidential race. All of the House of Representatives is up for election and 34 Senate seats are up as well. Let's focus on the Senate for a moment. Democrats face an uphill battle to maintain their narrow majority. Sue, I want to focus on two states that you recently reported on and look closely at. That's Ohio and Montana.

Can you tell me about those races? Sure. I mean, these are probably two of the marquee Senate races for the 2024 election year in that both states have an incumbent Democrat running for reelection in a state where the Republican nominee, likely Donald Trump, is all but certain to win. So what does that mean? That means that they're going to need a significant portion of voters in their respective states to split their tickets, to vote for Donald Trump at the top and vote for a Democrat for Senate. And that is not only difficult to do, it is increasingly becoming one of the most difficult things to do in American politics because people don't split their tickets anymore. Just one point to underscore that. In 2020, there was just one state, the state of Maine, in which the top of the ballot and the Senate race had different outcomes. Joe Biden won Maine and Republican Senator Susan Collins did.

She is the only senator who has been able to pull that off in recent elections. Claudia, I feel like we can't discount West Virginia here, where Joe Manchin, a reliable, if not sometimes temperamental Democrat, is retiring. Given the state's conservative tilt, do you think Democrats are just writing off West Virginia as like a loss for them? I think you can say in some ways they are, at least quietly, they may tell you they're writing off West Virginia. That was an interesting part of Sue's reporting this past month with Manchin resigning his place in that seat. That really changes the calculations for Democrats in terms of their path forward and trying to reclaim a majority. And in the end, it really narrows

those options for them. And it also highlights another interesting trend that, Sue, you've been tracking for several years, which is voters getting further entrenched in their own bubbles in terms of going red or blue and not splitting tickets anymore. And I think West Virginia is a classic example of that where we'll see that state really go red in the upcoming election without Manchin there. And so it's interesting. Democrats are bullish, as the one Sue spoke to, about perhaps reclaiming that majority. But the odds of that happening are really, really tough. Look, I try not to go too deep on math, but the math here matters.

You know, Senate Democrats have a 51-49 majority as we sit here today. And Joe Manchin retiring means that the best case scenario, if Democrats shoot the moon in 2024 and hold every incumbent, they're still looking at a 50-50 Senate. Now, you'll talk to really optimistic Democrats and say, hey, we could put Texas in play. We could put Florida in play with Ted Cruz running for reelection and Rick Scott. I'm not going to say that's not going to happen, but I'm going to say in January of 2024, it's not accurate to call those races toss ups. I think there's going to be a roller coaster of things that are going to happen this year. But right now, Democrats are entirely on defense. There is nowhere where they are looking realistically to expand the majority. And if anything, like these red state Democrats, John Tester in Montana, Sherrod Brown in Ohio,

and then other just competitive states, Arizona, Pennsylvania, are going to be either highly competitive or uphill battles. And the caveat here, which you always have to talk about when we're talking about the Senate majority, is who are they going to run against? And the thing that I think Democrats feel the most confident about, but it's completely out of their control, is who Republican primary voters ultimately nominate to run against these Democrats. Because we have seen in 2022, 2020, 2018, the caliber of the Republican candidate will matter a lot to the outcome of these elections. Which I guess is a lesson you'd think Republicans probably learn from 2022, right? You would think. But again, like Trump has certainly overtaken the Republican

Party. It is Trump's Republican Party. But you still have very key establishment players like Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who's aligned with the outside super PAC, the Senate Leadership Fund, which is run by McConnell allies, who are still very much players in these Senate races and who have a very different idea of who a good general election candidate is compared to often the candidate that ultimately Donald Trump might endorse in some of these races. What I think is different in 2024, and another reason Republicans should feel a bit confident, is that, but obviously a lot of that's volatile. Who the establishment wants and who Republican primary voters pick has been one of the big stories of the past decade in politics. And so

Republican primaries don't really start in earnest until March. So these races won't really start to take shape until the spring and summer. But if you are Mitch McConnell and the Republican senators sitting here today, you feel pretty good about 2024. And the only way you could really lose it is if Trump is the nominee and really loses big in the election and drags down tickets, or you put up candidates that just can't win among a broader electorate. Yeah, I think Democrats in the end are really going to need a Hail Mary moment, if you will, when you look at some of these contests, like a surprise win, you know, in a race such as Florida with Debbie Mercosel-Powell going against Rick Scott, or Arizona, Ruben Gallego

is expected to be the Democratic nominee. We're still waiting to see what Kyrsten Sinema does, who was a Democrat. She's now an independent, and that could really shake up that race if she decides to stay in it. And so we'll see which way that race goes as well. I will say that I do think Democrats have a Hail Mary, and I think that a lot of them believe it's the issue of abortion. Especially as we've seen, it's been a very motivating issue for voters. It seems to continue to be something that animates voters. And people like Jon Tester and Sherrod Brown, I think that if they win, if they can pull it off, it's because their states sided with them on the abortion question. It's clear that Democratic campaigns are going to make abortion access central to every single one of these races. And in places like Montana, you know, every place is unique, but I think Montana is a good example where it's, yeah, you'd call it a red state, but it's not a red state in the way that like Alabama is. It's a bit more of a libertarian state, individual liberty, individual freedom. And you

hear that in the way Jon Tester's talking about this issue is like, liberty matters to Montanans, freedom matters to Montanans. And if they can make that a winning argument, that could be the Hail Mary. Right. And Claudia, I mean, how likely do you think it is that one party could control everything after elections this year? Or do you think it is that one party could control everything after elections this year? Or do you think like divided government is more likely here? In terms of one party controlling everything, it's not an impossible outcome. It is possible, but it's hard to see, especially when we talk about the reporting that Sue and others have seen, especially with the electorate in terms of voters getting further entrenched into their

bases of their parties. It's hard to see that we will not end up with a divided government once again. How divided and what way that remains to be seen, but it seems to be really reflective over the last few elections and perhaps what we see the coming year of the country, where it is and how closely divided it is. Always the wild card. Okay, let's take a quick break. And when we get back, Can't Let It Go. And we're back. And it's time for Can't Let It Go, the part of the show where we talk about the things we just can't stop thinking about, politics or otherwise. I'll start us off. And what I can't let go of this week is that according to the AP, wedding venues in Las Vegas saw a potentially record-breaking amount of weddings on New Year's Eve this last weekend. And the reason is kind of weird.

Folks are chalking it up to the date. I know this. I just learned this. What about the date? Well, it's in numbers, right? New Year's Eve this year was 1- 2, 3, 1, 2, 3. Apparently that was enough to inspire many people to choose that particular date as their wedding anniversary. I quite frankly don't know what to make of this.

Besides that, humans are super weird, man. I bet that they get a lot of engraved gifts because that's just a good 1, 2, 1. That's going to be a lot of their pin numbers. I think you can guess them easily. Anecdotally, I have two good friends who went to New Year's Eve weddings. And I was like, this is weird. Yeah, this year. And a friend of mine was like, I get why a lot of people would want the 1-2-3-1-2-3 wedding date. And I was like, I literally had not thought about that until New Year's Eve.

Yeah, and it's going to be harder to forget, right? Or you can get in bigger trouble for forgetting that anniversary is what I see down the line. Claudia, what can't you let go of this? Well, I spent a lot of my break binging different things, among them The Crown. Oh, I just finished it last night. Okay. I have not technically finished the last two episodes. The Queen dies. No. What about Diana? Does she make it? So I purposely have not finished the last two episodes because I don't want it to be over for me. Because I cannot believe they're ending it after Prince Harry handed them all this material in the book.

And Meghan Markle. And they got the kids and the controversy. I'm like, you guys, it's all written now. You've just got to put it in script form. You've got to add a bonus season. But I guess they're serious about this. The Brits brag about this a lot, it seems. It's very important to them to do limited series. They know how to end it, like succession. They're like, we're out of here. And so I've actually gone to binging other things to distract myself, like Selling Sunset, which never ends, by the way, has like seven seasons. It's just forever and ever and just completely the opposite. But The Crown was so good. And I'm

sad to finish those last two episodes. My very minor criticism of the last season is one of the things I think this show did so well was the casting, especially the actress who played Princess Diana in the last couple seasons. But my beef with them the last season is that actor who played Harry just isn't Harry to me. He really messed that up. He's a good actor. It's not about that. He seems like a very nice guy. So many of the other actors, you're like, they're nailing this.

Like, they're embodying him. And he just felt more like a Weasley and not like a Harry. I don't know. From Harry Potter. From Harry it is. They mixed up the Harrys. They confused them. That kid is a Weasley. Yeah. That's all I know. That's from Harry Potter. I Harry it is. They mixed up the Harrys. They confused them. That kid is a Weasley.

Yeah. That's all I know. That's from Harry Potter. I totally agree with you. I feel like some things were a little off this last season too, but I will forgive it because overall it was tremendous. Yeah, it was really good. I really miss it.

Yeah, but I'm with you, Claudia. I really would have wanted a Harry season, a Harry and Meghan season. Yes. That would have been so fun. Sue, what can't you let go of this week? The thing I can't let go of is that I hope today I've already experienced the most challenging 30 minutes of my 2024. Oh. In that I was the mystery reader for my daughter's kindergarten class this morning.

And I loved it. One, it was very joyful and I loved it. One, it was very joyful and I loved it. But I have to say that I feel like this is a character building exercise that all people should have to go do to go be the person that has to entertain a room full of four to five year old children for 30 minutes. It is hard. So they are hilarious. But it's like it was the closest I think I will ever come to like what a stand up comedian will feel like if you're being heckled down. Like you're trying to entertain them. But they're like, like I was like who wants to read a book about worms and they're like I eat worms worms have butts you have a butt like then you try to contain them but you want them to love you you know you're trying to be like the most entertaining thing

to them my daughter was so happy I was there and I left and I texted my husband he's like how'd it go and I was like it was so fun but I was like I think I'm like sweating texted my husband. He was like, how'd it go? And I was like, it was so fun. But I was like, I think I'm like sweating through my shirt. Like you just want to I've never wanted to win over a room more in my life and felt more pressure. So it was super fun, but it was super hard. And I feel like that I learned a lot from that experience. Yeah. I'm a childless adult, so I have no idea what this is. Like, is this something all parents have to do at some point?

It is every Friday. Somebody can volunteer to go in and point? It is every Friday. Somebody can volunteer to go in and be the reader for the week. And you can pick whatever books you want, which is another like, can barely sleep at night deciding on your books that you're going to bring in. So much pressure. And then you read to read various books to them for 30 minutes. But you know, you talk to them and you talk about the books and you ask them questions. And like, they just say the craziest things. And they're just, you know, and they're all you walk in and like 19 kids automatically are like Lulu's mom. Do you know what my name is?

What's my name? Like they're like pop quiz hot shot. Like, you know, they really kind of haze you. Yeah, the pressure is on. I did it a few times when my kids were in school. And you kind of have this temptation when you're leaving. You're like, I'm the coolest parent you've ever seen in here. Right, kid? And so it's just this high, terrible pressure moment.

And you just want to impress your kid. You want to impress all the other kids. But it can go off the rails so fast. It did not go off the rails today. I want to put it on record. It was a good experience. But also I would end on this. These are the things you do that you walk out of a school and you're like, teachers should make $500,000 a year. Teachers should make more money than the president. That's a hard job. I did it for 30 minutes and I was like, this is tough. They do that all day, every day. Amen. I agree with that. That's all we have time for today. Our executive producer is Muthoni Mathuri. Our editor is Erica Morrison. Our producers are Jung-Yoon Han and Kesey Murrell. Special thanks to Krishna Dev Calamer and Kelt Sue Snell. I'm Ashley Lopez. I cover voting.

I'm Claudia Grisales. I cover Congress. And I'm Susan Davis. I cover politics. And thank you for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast.