The NPR Politics Podcast - Biden Has A Gen X Problem

Episode Date: December 22, 2023

Generation X, the generation between the Boomers and Millennials, isn't a voting bloc you hear much about. We break down why Biden is lacking with the Slacker Generation.This episode: senior White House correspondent Tamara Keith, political correspondent Susan Davis, and senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro.This episode was edited by Erica Morrison. It was produced by Jeongyoon Han and Casey Morell. Our executive producer is Muthoni Muturi.Unlock access to this and other bonus content by supporting The NPR Politics Podcast+. Sign up via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org. Connect:Email the show at [e-mail] the NPR Politics Podcast Facebook Group.Subscribe to the NPR Politics Newsletter.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Hey there, it's the NPR Politics Podcast. I'm Tamara Keith. I cover the White House. I'm Susan Davis. I cover politics. And I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent. President Biden's reelection bid has a generational problem, and it might not be the one you're thinking of. While Gen Z is lukewarm on giving Biden another term, Gen X may, in fact, be the most hostile toward the president. Are we allowed to talk about Gen X?

We've never talked about Gen X. This might be the first pod. Yeah. The forgotten generation, Gen X. Definitely. Well, OK, so let's just skip ahead to the full disclosure part. I think technically speaking, all three of us in this podcast are members of Generation X, though I don't think any of us really claim it because we're all on the cusp. We're Xennials, as we've talked about in the polls previously, in the pod previously.

We are either very old millennials or very young Gen Xers. Yeah, very young Gen Xers. And while I want to be very young. I want my MTV. Well, truly. And I wanted to have music videos. Correct. So let's get to the story here. Our latest polling data shows Gen Xers have the highest disapproval rating for President Biden. So today we are going to talk about what's driving that anger or angst, to use a very Gen X term, and explore how this happened and whether there

is a way back for Biden. So Sue, define Gen X for us demographically. For the purpose of this political conversation, obviously, there's a little bit of quibble around when generations start and end. But we're talking about people who were born between the years of 1965 and 1980, roughly. People that grew up in the Carter and Reagan era of politics, essentially 90s kids. Thanks for calling us out. Early mid-40s, as I like to say. Youthful 40s.

So how much of the electorate are they? Well, it's interesting because I've done a lot of reporting on this. And Generation X, politically speaking, isn't as influential as the other generations. By population, they're smaller than both the boomers and millennials. And they also haven't tended to have as high a level of political engagement compared to other generations. It might be, you could say that it sort of rings true that they've also been dubbed the slacker generation. There is also maybe a slightly higher level of disinterest or disgust with politics. And if you've seen a Kevin Smith movie, you know why. I may have seen all of them. Yeah, me too. So why is this generation tilting conservative? So one of the people I interviewed for this story

is Dr. Jean Twange. Her whole field of study is basically generational differences. And one of the things she told me is that your political attitudes can start to be shaped as young as childhood. So part of the reason why Gen X tends to tilt more Republican is basically just when they were born. Gen X is the most Republican of the generations. And that fits some other data analyses suggesting that political leanings of generations are often influenced by the popularity of the president when that generation is in adolescence or in adulthood. And for Gen X, that was Ronald Reagan. He was a very popular Republican president. And I would say that this rang true. Shout out to Jung Yoon, who works on our desk.

She helped me do some voter callbacks to talk to Gen X voters. And I would say that this rang true. You know, shout out to Jung Yoon, who works on our desk. She helped me do some voter callbacks to talk to Gen X voters. And this was something that they all acknowledged, that there was sort of this nostalgia for their youth. And one of the people we talked to is a guy named Ken Piccolo. He is a teacher, a substitute teacher. He lives in California. He right now actually intends to vote for Biden. He says he approves of him. But he did speak of this nostalgia. Ronald Reagan made me feel good about being a U.S. citizen, being American. He made you feel like it was worthwhile and we're a good country and we're doing some good stuff. You might say that a lot of Gen X wants to make America great again.

Well, let's talk about the numbers here, because we are saying that Gen X is down on Biden. What does that actually look like? What does our latest polling say? Well, Sue and I were talking about this because we saw it in November's poll, and then it showed up again in December's poll. And we said, hmm, yeah, I think there's something there. And it turns out that 62% said that they disapprove of the job that President Biden is doing. 62%. It's a huge number, much higher than the other generations. 52% of them strongly disapprove of the job Biden is doing. And, you know, that's really notable because if you think about how a lot of what we saw in our favorability ratings comparing Trump and Biden,

for example, Trump is generally a little bit more disliked than Biden overall, but not with Gen X. I also think the strong disapprove number is really interesting to me because the reason why we break that down, like strong approved, likely disapproved, is it really speaks to intensity of disapproval. So like Gen X says 50, more than half of Gen Xers say they strongly disapprove of Biden. Compare that to 35% of Gen Z and millennials. It's just a much more potent disapproval among generations, even though basically all generations have levels of disapproval of Joe Biden right now. But it is

just most acute and most potent among Gen X. So who says they're indifferent? But my question also is, okay, so they don't like Joe Biden. Do they like Donald Trump? Not in particular. I mean, they have a 53% unfavorable rating for Trump. They have a 60% unfavorable rating of Biden. So maybe we are going back to the idea that they are indifferent and don't like either person and might not entirely vote. But this is a generation that is raising kids, spending money. It's still in that target demographic for advertisers. So there's a lot of things for them to be concerned about, worried about. And clearly their politics,

they're not thrilled with the direction of where things are going. In your reporting, what did you find is driving their discontent? Look, part of this is obviously just the time of life that they're in. Right now, in the 2024 election cycle, Gen Xers happen to be those middle-aged Americans. And that, I know, it's hard to hear those words, I realize. But it's also the time in basically anyone's life in which you're feeling the greatest financial crunch. And one of the people I talked to is Amy Walter, friend of the pod, herself a Gen Xer. She's a nonpartisan political analyst. And she said this really resonated with her.

You're feeling every squeeze of modern society at this age in your life, which most people in their 40s and 50s do feel. I just think we are uniquely situated in a very uncomfortable place right now. A lot of Gen Xers are sandwiched between aging parents and the care and cost associated with that. They have young children in the home, or they're looking at paying for college. They're worried about retirement. And all the rising costs associated with inflation are hitting them acutely hard right now. It's hard to concentrate because I feel like I'm in a Gen X therapy session. It's a little bit like group therapy. I was just going to say, I literally had to get off the phone with my parents and their doctor to come here to tape this podcast. Sandwich generation, undoubtedly. My dad can't figure out how to plug in a printer anymore.

Yeah. I will also say this, and this is anecdotal, but, you know, we've talked so much about President Biden's age and how it's a factor for people. I think you could argue that's an element that's acutely true for Gen X because he's the same age as a lot of our parents. And a lot of us are looking at our parents and thinking, oof, they're not the same as they used to be 5, 10, 15 years ago. And that's a reality you're dealing with in your own life that might also project into how you're viewing the presidential candidates right now. All right. Well, we're going to take a quick break. And when we get back, more about Gen X and the culture wars. Hey, it's Asma Khalid. As the year wraps up and we're reflecting on a huge year of political news with an even bigger year coming up in 2024 with a general election, we will continue working to

help you keep up with all the political news happening in Washington, D.C. and around the country. And we hope we can count on your help. This is where we want to say a big thank you to our NPR Politics Plus supporters and anyone listening who already donates to public media. Your support ensures that everyone has free access to reliable news and podcasts, including those who can't afford to give this holiday season. And to anyone out there who is not a supporter yet, Thank you. nprplus at plus.npr.org or make a tax-deductible donation now at donate.npr.org slash politics. And thanks. And we're back. And Sue, Generation X was also raised in this 1990s era of, quote,

political correctness, which was the term that everybody used back then, which is similar to how conservatives use the word woke in today's politics. Where do you think that fits into the approach that Gen X is taking to politics? This was something that all of the sort of political experts I talked to agreed was a huge issue in how Gen X views the current political debate, specifically that there is a big cultural divide between Gen X and Gen Z and millennials when it comes to issues of political speech. Sean Trendy is an analyst with RealClearPolitics, and he is also another Gen Xer. And he thought this was a huge reason that Gen X was really dissatisfied with the moment right now. I think Generation X is the one that that really reverberates negatively with the most, just because we grew up in this kind of era of just not trusting authority figures as a general

matter and almost kind of like a cultural libertarianism. And what he means by that is there is this, you know, right now we've been, for the past several years, we've been living in this debate about political speech and what's appropriate and what's not appropriate. And Gen Xers are, they're not conservative. They're not socially conservative. They're just not as progressive as young people. And they look at a lot of the debate over, let me give you two good examples that I think our podcast listeners, it'll make sense. These are examples that were given to me by Twangy. And the first one she talked about was, do you remember when Tom Cotton wrote the New York Times op-ed? Right, right, right. Said that U.S. troops should be used to put down protesters.

And it caused a huge debate inside the New York Times. And the editor who allowed it to run was a Gen Xer. And there was an uprising, a revolt, essentially, at the newspaper, largely led by Gen Z and millennials who were saying, this is dangerous speech, we shouldn't give it a platform. And the editor ultimately left the paper. The other example she gave me was Dave Chappelle. He's a comedian that a lot of Gen Xers think is really funny. He says a lot of really provocative things, but there's this attitude of Gen X, like, look, people should be able to say what they want to say, especially when it comes to speech or humor or comedians. But there was also a revolt at Netflix. They didn't want to carry his comedy anymore because of statements they thought were anti-trans. And a lot of that

revolt was led by millennials and Gen Zers. So there's just a really pointed cultural divide over what protected speech is and should be. Just to look at a little bit of a conflict in how Gen X views some of these cultural issues, you know, in the December survey, the December NPR PBS NewsHour Marist poll, we asked about gender identity and whether or not people think that gender identity is based on the sex that's assigned at birth, or if it's not necessarily that. 62% of Gen Xers said that it is based on the sex assigned at birth. Now, at the same time, we asked about abortion rights, and only 38% of Gen Xers said that abortion should be banned at six weeks or later. So, you know, a little bit of a conflict there when it comes to where they really come down on some of these social issues. Well, so not to be harsh here, but if Gen X is this smaller piece of the electorate, maybe not the most significant voting bloc, does not vote in as great of strength as other generations, how much do they really matter in this presidential race? And look, like we joked at the top of the podcast that this is probably the first

conversation we've ever even had about Gen X voters. They are sort of the forgotten generation in politics. You don't have campaigns that are gearing messages towards Gen X or turnout or anything like that. Part of it is your political attitudes are probably pretty well formed at this point in your life. But I do think they matter in a certain respect. Whether Trump or Biden wins this election is reliant upon winning over some combination of people who do disapprove of them. They're going to have to win over some haters, you might say. The other thing we've talked about that I think is salient here too is third party voters. One of the guys I talked to is a guy named Danny Dotson from Texas. And he was kind of evocative to me of this sort of stereotype of the Gen Xer.

He basically said he never even really started paying attention to politics till he was in adulthood. He voted sporadically. He doesn't really vote in midterms. And he started paying attention in the Trump years, but not to the extent you would think. He said he didn't vote in 2016. He voted third party in 2020. And he told me the only thing he knows for sure in 2024 is that he's not going to vote for either Trump or Biden, but he might vote third party. And third party voters could be a spoiler dynamic in this presidential race that can't be discounted. They could. At the same time, there is the possibility that, you know, this conflict that we're seeing with culture, with some of the way that they feel about some of these cultural issues. You know, if you have a Republican candidate, for example,

who is, you know, speaking in a very hardline way about abortion rights, it's been something that Democrats have been able to peel off a lot of voters on. You know, at the same time, if you have somebody on the other side speaking in a little bit more of an extreme way that they disagree with, who knows where they'll go. But yeah, I think third party is a is a huge potential problem for for kind of either Trump or Biden, because, you know, that that sort of takes out what you think is your pool of voters and could throw an election in any other way. You know, or maybe they're just whipping out the flannels and saying, stay home.

All right. We're going to leave it there for today or whatever. Brief note, you'll notice today is Friday, but we do not have a Can't Let It Go. But have no fear. Next Friday, we will bring you our annual Can't Let It Go. Spectacular. The things from the entire year that we cannot let go of. Politics or otherwise, it is a real treat. I promise. I'm Tamara Keith. I cover the White House. I'm Susan Davis. I cover politics. And I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent.

And thank you for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast. And I really feel senior now. Well, reality bites, Domenico. Reality bites.