The NPR Politics Podcast - Biden's Election Headwinds

Episode Date: December 28, 2023

The incumbent president faces challenges convincing voters he deserves a second term. We explore what they are.A similar episode regarding the challenges facing former president Trump's re-election bid will be published at a later date. This episode: political correspondent Ashley Lopez, senior White House correspondent Tamara Keith, and national political correspondent Mara Liasson.This episode was edited by Erica Morrison. It was produced by Jeongyoon Han and Casey Morell. Our executive producer is Muthoni Muturi.Unlock access to this and other bonus content by supporting The NPR Politics Podcast+. Sign up via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org. Connect:Email the show at [e-mail] the NPR Politics Podcast Facebook Group.Subscribe to the NPR Politics Newsletter.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Hey there, it's the NPR Politics Podcast. I'm Ashley Lopez. I cover voting. I'm Tamara Keith. I cover the White House. And I'm Mara Liason, national political correspondent. And as we all know, President Biden is running for a second term. And while he has the advantage of being an incumbent, he also has many challenges to his reelection bid. So today we're going to look into that. And in another episode, we're going to look into the challenges former President Donald Trump faces as he tries to get reelected. Tam, let's start with you. What is Biden's theory of the case for his reelection? So I'd say it's three pronged. First, finish the job, as he said,

at the State of the Union address. That includes further trying to bring down the cost of health care, addressing child care affordability and availability, college affordability, immigration, and then implementation of things like the Inflation Reduction Act, which were passed earlier in his administration, but that haven't fully gone into effect yet. Then protecting freedoms, most significantly access to abortion rights and reproductive freedom, but also voting rights. And then finally, saving democracy from Donald Trump and MAGA Republicans. And I expect that we're going to be hearing a lot about that part of his pitch. You know, the interesting thing for Joe Biden is he's in a very familiar situation. When an incumbent is as unpopular as he is, and right now at least he's trailing in the polls in key battleground states and nationally, you have to make the election a referendum on your opponent. Yes, he has a positive message, finish the job. And he has actually accomplished

a lot of things, which most people don't know about. But the most important thing he's going to have to do is disqualify Donald Trump. And we know that negative partisanship is the biggest motivator of voters' behavior right now, which means they go into the voting booth and they cast their vote to stop someone, not necessarily because they're thrilled about the candidate they're voting for. And I can't help but notice how much of Joe Biden's like political to-do list here in his campaign sounds so similar to 2020, Tam. That's the thing. When you're running for reelection, a lot of the time it is very similar to what you were saying when you ran for election. Part of that is that finish the job thing. But part of

it is that this is who he is. And and this is what he's running on. But what Biden has been saying in a lot of these fundraisers, where he is more unvarnished with his thoughts than he is in public. And I've been to now, at least half a dozen of them in the last couple of months. And what he says is that a lot of people thought that I was exaggerating in 2020 when I said Trump was a threat to democracy. This is me channeling Biden. He says, but then January 6th happened. And now he says, look at what Trump is saying. If the former president were to become president again,

the things he says he will do are a threat to American democracy. He's not even hiding the ball. I'm quoting President Biden here. You know, Trump is talking about being a dictator on day one, or at least for day one. He's talking about being your retribution. And Biden goes through this list of things which are not as abstract as they were in the 2020 election. Yeah. And the question is how much of that is important to voters? We didn't think it was that important in the midterms. It turned out to be important. The other thing I want to say, poor Biden, he has so many challenges.

We could talk about them for three hours. But some of them are structural. Some of them are unique to him. We'll talk about them for three hours. But some of them are structural. Some of them are unique to him. We'll talk about his age in a minute. But some of them are structural. He has to win the popular vote by four to seven points just to prevail in the Electoral College. Any Republican would have a built-in advantage there. He has the challenges of external events like third-party candidates. Donald Trump cannot win without third party candidates. I don't know if Biden can win with third party candidates being on the ballot. And then there are all the threats and chaos around the world that would hurt any incumbent.

I want to go back a little bit to the conversation about, you know, what happened on January 6th. You know, Biden's argument in 2020, as you mentioned, was that he was fighting a battle for the soul of the nation. I mean, arguably the soul of our democracy. I mean, he won that election, but did he win this battle? I mean, or is that why he still has to focus on these issues moving forward? Well, he didn't win the battle because Donald Trump is running against him and he believes that Donald Trump is a mortal threat to American democracy. So no, he won that election. He won that battle. He didn't win the war, if you want to use that analogy. And that's why he's still going to be talking about the same things. And quite frankly, Trump is making it easier for him to do that because the plans that he's laid out

and the language that he's using is much more nakedly authoritarian than anything he said in the last election. We will root out the communists, Marxists, fascists, and the radical left thugs that live like vermin within the confines of our country that lie and steal and cheat on elections and will do anything possible. They'll do anything, whether legally or illegally, to destroy America and to destroy the American dream. And to be clear, while President Biden won that election, Donald Trump never acknowledged that he lost. And as a result of that,

there is a large share of the U.S. population that does not see Joe Biden's presidency as legitimate. Yes, a huge portion of Republicans, more than two-thirds, think that Donald Trump was the true winner of the 2020 election, and they don't think Biden is legitimate. Well, I want to shift a little bit to policy, and let's start with the economy. I mean, the economy is way outperforming expectations. It's a lot better than it was when Biden took office.

But, Tam, when you talk to voters, their perception and the way they feel about the economy is completely different. And voters don't seem to credit Biden's administration for, you know, the fact that the economy has been pretty stable. I mean, do you see this as a potential problem for Biden throughout next year? Oh, it's a huge problem. The truth is that there is not actually that much that the president of the United States can do to control the economy. The Federal Reserve has a much larger role, though. If the unemployment rate is high, the president is going to get the blame. And traditionally, if the unemployment rate is low, the president is going to get the credit. But in this case, although by most objective measures, the economy is performing quite well, large economic growth in the last quarter, unemployment at record lows, all of these things,

the American public just does not feel it. They don't agree with the numbers. And part of that is that things are more expensive than they were when Joe Biden took office. There was really significant inflation. It has gone down dramatically. But that doesn't mean that the costs have come down on, you know, what people see in, you know, on their grocery bill. You know, there's two theories about this disconnect. One is people don't think the economy is doing well because all they get from TikTok and cable news is that the economy is terrible and they're misinformed. That's one theory. The other theory is people are not stupid. There's a big difference between the macro economy, which as Tam said, by every measure

is doing pretty great, and the kitchen table economy, which actually isn't doing great. And the point Tam was making about costs, I think for a long time, the White House confused the rate of inflation with prices. People don't care about the rate of inflation. Yes, it's coming down, but prices are still high. And that's what they care about. And I think the White House is beginning to understand this and will change its messaging on this. The other thing that's important is that the three things that make you a middle class person, health care, education, and housing, have been inflationary and out of reach for many people before COVID, before this last round of inflation. It's harder to be in the middle class now. And that's a real reason. That's not people being misinformed. That's people saying it's harder for me. All right. Well,

we'll take a quick break. More in a moment. Hey, it's Asma Khalid. As the year wraps up and we're reflecting on a huge year of political news with an even bigger year coming up in 2024 with a general election, we will continue working to help you keep up with all the political news happening in Washington, D.C. and around the country. And we hope we can count on your help. This is where we want to say a big thank you to our NPR Politics Plus supporters and anyone listening who already donates to public media. Your support ensures that everyone has free access to reliable news and podcasts, including those who can't afford to give this holiday season. And to anyone out there who is not a supporter yet,

right now is the time to get behind the NPR network, especially ahead of a big election year. Supporting public media now takes just a few minutes and makes a real difference. So join NPR Plus at plus.npr.org or make a tax deductible donation now at donate.npr.org slash politics. And thanks. And we're back. And I want to talk more about policy, specifically here, foreign policy. There's a war in Ukraine, a war in Gaza. But Mara, you know, foreign policy is not usually something that voters think a lot about when they're heading to the polls. Do you think that could

be different in this in this election? Look, American elections have been very close for a long time. They're one on the margins. And yes, foreign policy can matter on the margins. There's a huge split right now inside the Democratic Party about the war in Gaza. And young people, voters of color, and Arab American voters are all important parts of the Democratic constituency, the Democratic coalition. And they're important in key states like Michigan. And it could hurt, that internal debate could hurt Biden. Do I think people go into the voting booth to vote about the war in Ukraine? No. But the president has to look like a competent manager of foreign policy. And don't forget the moment that Biden's numbers turned sour and never recovered, the botched withdrawal from Afghanistan.

I'm not saying that's the reason he's unpopular today, but that is the marker. When he was in the mid-50s approval ratings, after Afghanistan dropped, never recovered. And back home, there's still fallout from the Dobbs decision, obviously, that Republicans mostly have to contend with. But Tam, I wonder, Biden historically has not been a politician who likes to talk about abortion. But do you think he's going to have to change his tactics and start talking more about this issue? Yes. And he is. You're right. It's not his comfort zone to talk about women's reproductive health care, especially as a devout Catholic, where, you know, that's just, it's complicated. Though in terms of policy, his view is very clear. He wants to restore Roe, go back to the pre-Dobbs reality. And he's

campaigning on that. He will be campaigning on that. But expect to hear more from Vice President Harris and surrogates like Governor Gretchen Whitmer in Michigan and other prominent women voices. Expect to hear more from them. And honestly, expect to hear more from women who have been affected by the Dobbs decision. Because they are very compelling messengers for the campaign, much more compelling than an 81-year-old dude. And also, Biden just doesn't have to talk about this issue. This is an issue that is very powerful. It's going to be on a lot of ballots as referendums, and he just doesn't have to talk about it. There are so many, like Tam said, there are other better messengers, but also this has a kind of

momentum all of its own. Abortion as an issue is not a liability for the Biden reelection. It is an asset for the Biden reelection because it's such a liability for Republicans who haven't figured out what to say. And when they do say things, it seems to be very much out of sync with where the American public is. Two other little things, the legal trouble involving Biden's son Hunter on tax charges and the House's efforts to try and impeach the president. I mean, do you guys see those as distractions or are these potentially bigger problems? I see them as medium sized problems. I think Biden's son's problems are certainly not a good thing for him and they're a terribly

personally painful thing for him. I think the House efforts to try to impeach the president could go in two ways at once. It could backfire against House Republicans. Many Republicans on Capitol Hill are already saying they really have no grounds to do this. But at the same time, it could have the political effect that it is intended to have, which is to level the playing field and to give Republicans the chance to say, oh, Donald Trump was impeached. Well, guess what? We're impeaching Joe Biden. They're the same. This muddies the waters. And that is the point. That's the purpose of it. That is the purpose of it. Yeah. I mean, it allows Republicans to say, look, you're saying

Trump is corrupt. You're saying Trump has all these indictments? What about the Biden family? What about the Biden family criminal syndicate? Now, a lot of people discount that, but a lot of people don't discount it. And to be clear, at this point, House investigators have not presented any evidence of actual wrongdoing by President Biden, which I think actually is an important thing to say. Yeah. And I know you don't have a crystal ball, but I mean, if either of you were able to go inside the Biden campaign's war room right now, do you think that the mood would be optimistic right now or pretty pessimistic? Tam, I'll start with you. Yeah. What I can tell you is they feel like they can't get a break. Yeah. Right.

Like everybody is focused on all of the polls that say that Joe Biden is in the basement. Everybody is focused on President Biden's age and the fact that he's taking the short stairs into Air Force One, something that they can't control. His age is just a thing they can't fix. And and they feel like, oh my gosh, like, you know, look at Trump. Why are we getting all this trouble? And at the same time, they feel like they can do this. They feel like they have a good team. They're going to grow their team. And that more important than anything that President Biden says is just running a solid campaign that convinces people of the stakes and gets people to vote whether they, you know, feel

great about Joe Biden or not. And, you know, most people have a lot of malaise about the idea of a rematch. I think I think I saw some polling that said like, only 26% of people are enthusiastic about a rematch between Trump and Biden. I can tell you that in the larger democratic world, people are very pessimistic. But there's a lot of groupthink. And I just want to say that covering politics is a lesson in humility. Every day you get to wake up and realize that everything you thought was going to happen is wrong. And we have been so wrong for the last six years. Wrong about Donald Trump being able to win the nomination in 2016. Wrong about sleepy old Joe Biden being able to win the nomination in 2020.

Wrong about everything. Wrong about Hillary. Wrong about the red wave that never happened. All right, well, let's leave it there. I'm Ashley Lopez. I cover voting. I'm Tamara Keith. I cover the White House. And I'm Mara Liason, national political correspondent. And thank you for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast.