The NPR Politics Podcast - Biden's Final Push For More Ukraine Aid

Episode Date: November 25, 2024

President Biden has long supported Ukraine in its war with Russia. But, with a new Congress — and president — taking office in January, the future of U.S. aid is in question. What is Biden trying to do before he leaves office to keep helping Ukraine?This episode: political correspondent Susan Davis, Pentagon correspondent Tom Bowman, and congressional correspondent Deirdre Walsh.The podcast is produced by Jeongyoon Han and Kelli Wessinger, and edited by Casey Morell. Our executive producer is Muthoni Muturi.Listen to every episode of the NPR Politics Podcast sponsor-free, unlock access to bonus episodes with more from the NPR Politics team, and support public media when you sign up for The NPR Politics Podcast+ at plus.npr.org/politics.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

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Here's the show. It's true what they say, the days are long but the years are short. Amen. Hey there, it's the NPR politics podcast. I'm Susan Davis, I cover politics. I'm Tom Bowman, I cover the Pentagon. And I'm Deirdre Walsh, I cover Congress.

And today on the show, how President Biden is trying to help Ukraine's defense efforts before he leaves office. His successor, Donald Trump, is skeptical of continuing aid to Ukraine and wants to help quickly negotiate an end to the war. Tom, first, just give us an update on the ground. What's the state of the war right now? Well, the state of the war is something of a stalemate.

Russia is making advances in Ukraine's east but the big news is President Biden has finally allowed US long-range missiles that can travel 190 miles allowing them to be used inside Russia that is huge he was skeptical at first because he didn't want to you know escalate the war Russia is threatening nuclear weapon use but there are more than 11,000 North Korean troops that have gone into the Kursk area of Russia where the Ukrainian forces back in August made an incursion. So there's heavy fighting going on there. So the US is allowing those long range missiles to be used in the French and the Brits have also weighed in allowing their

missiles to be used in this Kursk area. Deirdre, change is coming in January in a lot of ways, but under President Biden, he was able to keep cobbled together this bipartisan support in Congress to keep aiding Ukraine. It might be an understatement to say that's likely to see a very different result come January 20th. We are definitely looking at a major change in power on this issue specifically come January. Obviously, Republicans took control of the Senate. The House remains in Republican hands, and Trump comes to the White House with a completely different strategy when it comes to Ukraine.

And you see the top, some of the top picks in his incoming administration reflect the change in the Republican Party. You have people like Florida Senator Marco Rubio, who's tapped to be the Secretary of State, who had been supporting aid to Ukraine, but he voted against the last package in April, that $61 billion. There's still some of that money left to go out the door

to pay for things like Tom just described. Florida Congressman Mike Walz, who has been tapped to be the President's National Security Advisor, also voted against that aid, had supported Ukraine in the past. But it just shows you sort of Trump is leading the Republican Party to push for an end to the war in Ukraine. There are still Russia hawks on the Hill that have significant posts. And we'll, I think, see a big divide continue to play out. You know, Mitch McConnell stepped down as Republican leader in the Senate, but

he will be chairing the Defense Appropriations Subcommittee. Danielle Pletka Which is not a small job in Washington. Danielle Pletka Which is a big job in Washington. And he knows that and he has been very blunt about the fact that he wants to be a big voice in defense policy, foreign policy, and you still have chairs of these committees that oversee the Pentagon that support helping Ukraine. And they will be battling with new incoming members who campaigned on getting out of the war in Ukraine.

But it sounds like there's no question that we are entering into a new era. Mike Waltz over the weekend said he wants to see a Responsible end to the war in Ukraine member president-elect Trump said I can end this in one day What it looks like is it's gonna end in Putin's favor JD Vance the vice president-elect has said let's freeze the front lines Tom for those of us that don't speak battlefield What does freeze the front lines mean? It means you end the war where the troops are located. That could be Russian troops in Ukrainian territory, but it ends right there. The big question is, what will Ukrainians get out of any sort of peace deal?

They would like to be a member of NATO. That's unlikely to happen. You have to get 31 members to sign off on it. They could get a lot more weaponry, maybe from the US. But of course, maybe from the U.S., but of course Trump is transactional. He may say the Ukrainians have to buy American-made missiles and other equipment. It's not going to be a gift from the United States. Interestingly, just today Germany announced that five European countries will step up support for Ukraine's defense

industry. Germany, France, Britain, Italy, Poland, just today they announced that, clearly with an eye to who's coming into the White House. And politically, Deirdre, I mean, this is one of the things I think about where on this issue in particular, this was a big, loud issue in the 2024 campaign. If Ukraine was being litigated in this election,

it seems pretty decisively that not only did Donald Trump win, but so did the Senate Republicans that took over the majority, all Ukraine skeptics. I mean a big focus on we need to be spending more resources to deal with our security at the U.S.-Mexico border, not spend money sending weapons and supporting this effort overseas in Ukraine. I think there was a lot of noise where candidates I talked to, incumbent Republicans I talked to, talked about fears from people back home that eventually Americans can get dragged into the war in Ukraine. That was never something that the Biden administration even talked about. But President-elect Trump sort of threatened that it was out

there and it sort of became, I think, some misinformation in part of the political debate about what would be happening next in Ukraine. And I think that's why you saw a lot of candidates echo the top of the ticket. And part of that misinformation, of course, was the anti-Ukraine vote. Voices were, oh, we're sending all this money to Ukraine. Most of that money is being spent in the US by defense contractors who are building additional plants, hiring more workers, you're going to see that continue. They have to replenish their missiles, their artillery rounds, and other things like that. You're going to see that continue well into the future. And once those new incoming members come to Congress and hear from their constituents,

we may see votes a little bit different in these defense appropriations bills. Okay, let's take a quick break and we'll talk more about what a negotiated piece might look like. This message comes from Cook Unity. Liven up your holiday dinners with the endless variety of delicious chef prepared meals from Cook Unity. Menus are updated weekly, fully cooked meals, just heat. Browse the menu by protein, cuisine, or dietary need.

Give the gift of delivering mouthwatering Cook Unity meals crafted by award-winning chefs featuring local ingredients. Go to cookunity.com slash politics or enter code politics before checkout for 50% off your first week. And we're back. And Tom, as you noted earlier, Donald Trump campaigned saying that he could quickly bring an end to this war, that he could negotiate peace between Ukraine and Russia. What does that look like?

What has he broadly said that he wants to do to resolve this conflict? You know, he hasn't really said because he says, I'm the best dealmaker in the world. I can end it on day one. But we don't know exactly what that will look like. But it seems like it would end on terms that are favorable to Putin. You know, he would love to see this war come to an end and leave Russian troops where they are inside Ukraine, the Russian control about 18% of

the country. So it'd be in his interest to say, yeah, yeah, let's just stop it and I'll stay where I am. And he also still of course holds Crimea. So again, if it's going to end like that, it's very favorable to Putin. And then how would you do that? Would you sit down with NATO members and just say it's time to end it? They may say, no, I don't think it's a good idea.

We want to continue to support Ukraine, give them more weapons. I think they can do a better job. We just don't know other than what Trump said. I can end it on day one. Do you have any sense from the Ukrainian side of this how they're looking at the incoming Trump administration which for their own interest seems much more hostile than the Biden administration has been? No, I think they're clearly nervous about the way ahead, right? Will they get any support from the

US? Will they have to rely on NATO? And again, Germany announced this plan by five European countries to beef up their support for Ukraine's defense industry. What does that look like? What do they build? And what can they do going forward? They're doing a really good job with their drones heading into Moscow even. So what does that look like? It really is unchartered waters at this point, other than I want to end it. S1C1 J.D. Dierdre, it is incredibly fascinating too, as we've seen these shifting alliances

on Capitol Hill, where some of now the strongest supporters of Ukraine reside in the Democratic Party, who will not have a very strong hand to play in the Trump administration. And even though there might still be a formidable coalition of power players in Washington who back Ukraine, Mitch McConnell being one of them, he doesn't have the same seat at the table he used to. Right. It's a completely different group of people that have sort of the reins going forward starting January 20th. I mean, to Tom's point about some of these other countries divvying up weapons, I think part of the Biden administration's approach to Ukraine is to try to build these alliances and try to have more people, allies help with the defense

of Ukraine against Russia. I sort of wonder what happens to that when the US potentially steps back from a leadership role and Ukraine will be in a much weaker position. And what does that do with allies on Capitol Hill? Will they be able to say, hey, can we at least do X, Y, Z while this peace negotiation is going forward? It doesn't sound like they're going to have much power in that negotiation. And it's also, like you said, you had Democrats completely united behind the Biden administration and the division being in the Republican Party. I don't know that that's going to continue going forward.

Why not? I just sort of think the Democratic Party is trying to figure out why a lot of these people supported Trump and his priorities focused on the economy at home. And what does that do to the Democrats' approach to chipping in this kind of federal resources going forward? That's a really good point. Okay. That is it for us today.

I'm Susan Davis. I cover politics. I'm Tom Bowman. I cover the Pentagon. And I'm Deirdre Walsh. I cover Congress. And thanks for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast.