The NPR Politics Podcast - Campaign Check-In: How Are The Non-Trump Candidates Making Their Pitch?

Episode Date: September 7, 2023

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis was once seen as the biggest threat to former President Donald Trump. But his campaign got off to a rocky start and is struggling to gain traction. In this episode, we look at how three non-Trump candidates — DeSantis, Nikki Haley, and Mike Pence — are selling themselves to voters. And whether there is a market for anyone not named Donald in the GOP primary.This episode: voting correspondent Miles Parks, political correspondent Ashley Lopez, and political correspondent Sarah McCammon.The episode was produced by Lexie Schapitl and Elena Moore. Our executive producer is Muthoni Muturi. Unlock access to this and other bonus content by supporting The NPR Politics Podcast+. Sign up via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org. Connect:Email the show at [e-mail] the NPR Politics Podcast Facebook Group.Subscribe to the NPR Politics Newsletter.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Hi, this is Steph and Amos, and we're sitting on our back porch enjoying a glass of wine after putting our newborn son to sleep. This podcast was recorded at 2.09 p.m. on September 7th, 2023. Things may have changed by the time you hear this, but hopefully our little one will sleep peacefully through the night. Okay, here's the show. I imagine sleeping peacefully, not a thing that happens too frequently at that stage. Not as I recall. And I don't recall much from that stage because I was not sleeping. You just kind of blacked out for a week. Yeah, or a few years. Hey there, it's the

NPR Politics Podcast. I'm Miles Parks. I cover voting. I'm Ashley Lopez. I cover politics. And I'm Sarah McCammon. I also cover politics. And today we are checking in on the Republican primary field. It's been two weeks since the first debate, and the non-Donald Trump candidates are working to carve out their lanes in this race. At this point, there are multiple campaign events all across the country happening every day. I want to start with my home state of Florida, where Governor Ron DeSantis' campaign has been struggling, specifically with staff turnover. Ashley, you've been reporting on this. What can you tell us? What's important and kind of obvious to say about Ron DeSantis right now is that

his campaign has started really rocky, and it's just not getting any better. For those who remember, it kind of got off to a rocky start with that disastrous announcement on Twitter Live that had all of those technical issues. And since then, yeah, there's been a lot of turnover, including his campaign manager, which is a pretty big deal mid-campaign. And I've talked to a lot of people who've worked on presidential campaigns before, and they say they've seen some pretty run-of-the-mill pitfalls, like him focusing too much on his record as a governor. But all the chaos on his campaign means that things are just, like, not going well. It's hard for him to get his message out because if you don't have some basic infrastructure things going right, it's hard to see a campaign going really far. Do the people you talk to feel like running a presidential campaign and running a campaign for governor in a pretty big state?

Are those two really different operations or are they fairly similar? Yeah, so I talked to a pollster who worked on DeSantis' 2018 gubernatorial campaign, and he's also worked on big presidential campaigns with his firm. And he said there's a huge learning curve. Our first presidential candidate was fond of saying that going from a statewide race to a presidential contest was like going from eighth grade basketball to the NBA finals. To like give him some credit, like, you know, it's really like there's nothing that prepares you for running on a national stage like this. Like you just have to get good at it over time. So but of course, it helps to have people who you trust and like and it seems like Ron DeSantis just doesn't have that because he's just had so

much staff turnover, not just within his campaign, but he hasn't kept a lot of staff from campaign to campaign. I mean, Whit Ayers told me that he hasn't been hired back, you know, and a lot of the people he's worked with weren't hired back. So it's kind of like a tricky situation that the DeSantis campaign is right now. Well, Sarah, you went to a number of campaign events for former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley. Have you seen parallels between her campaign and some of the pitfalls of the DeSantis campaign? Well, I think Haley, she's certainly been leaning into her record as a governor. And, you know, at least in the audience I saw yesterday in New Hampshire, she seemed to be doing that successfully. I mean, she talks a lot about her work. This was an

education-focused event. She talked about her work on education reform in the state of South Carolina. You know, she brings to the table both credentials as a former executive, as a governor, and as a former U.N. ambassador. So she has that international experience. And that's something she's been touting heavily. I mean, I think she was a very different governor than DeSantis with very different politics. And, you know, she was governing at a time when the state was I think she was widely viewed as very successfully navigating some huge challenges. You know, South Carolina went through that horrible shooting in Charleston and Nikki Haley, you know, made a big point of getting rid of the Confederate flag over the statehouse.

And so, you know, it's hard to compare the two. But I think what they both have in common is, you know, no surprise. They're running on those executive credentials and trying to sort of sell them to the voters. To you both, do we have any sense on how much the debate a couple weeks ago has had an effect or not had an effect on the way this field looks? You know, the crowd I was in last night was a crowd that was at least interested in Nikki Haley. But I talked to several folks who were specifically brought up the debate. They said they were impressed with her performance.

They thought she really shone on the debate stage. I talked to a couple of friends who came together, Judith Molloy from Hopkinton, New Hampshire, and her friend Marsha Moran from Concord, New Hampshire. And here's what Judith said. You know, I really was so very impressed by her debate. You know, her demeanor, her, I mean, she held her own. and I think she can play well, you know, among the candidates. And I think she's a chance of winning. And, you know, her friend Marsha said that initially she was worried that Haley had been out of the executive office and out of the ambassadorship for too long and would be kind of rusty. But she said ever since she launched her campaign earlier this year, up to the debate, she's been impressed with her and sees her as somebody who could be viable. I think the classic problem that like Nikki Haley and DeSantis and all these folks are running into is that there are a lot of people like a lot of candidates going after sort of the same lane.

I've talked to some people who are in Republican politics who are really smart about this stuff, and they say there continues to be about like three buckets of Republican voters. We're talking about always Trump voters who are going to vote for Trump no matter what, you know, if he's a candidate in the election. And then there are maybe Trumpers, you know, people who voted for Trump in the past but are open to an alternative. And then there's never Trumpers. These are the people who never voted for Trump in the past elections or, you know, even the most recent one and want to have a different Republican option. Obviously, like Chris Christie and folks like that are very keyed into the never Trump sector of the Republican Party. But everyone else is sort of like trying to hit this maybe Trump lane. And it's really hard. And they all have to sort of like, you know, make stand out in a field of a lot of people trying to stand in that lane. So, you know, make, stand out in a field of a lot of people trying to stand in that

lane. So, you know, things like a debate and also just like having a lot of visibility is something that they're all fighting for. And even having a semi-okay or a kind of, you know, mostly okay performance and things like a debate, it's hard to see how that's going to like elevate them to the front of a very busy street, not to like belabor that metaphor. No, it's interesting to hear Haley on that issue, for example. I mean, she talks about her experience, her record as a U.N. ambassador. She doesn't talk a whole lot about Trump. I mean, she seems to really be kind of trying to be in that middle ground where she doesn't want to alienate Trump voters, but she wants to be an alternative for people who are looking for

something else. Well, and specifically on the issue of abortion, I remember that clip from the debate where she seems to be trying to carve out, am I correct in characterizing this, Sarah, kind of a more moderate position on abortion than maybe the majority of the other people standing on the stage? Moderate within the Republican primary. I mean, I think it's always important to point out that, you know, at least 60 percent, 70 percent of American voters think abortion should be legal in all or most cases and in poll after poll. So when we're talking about a moderate Republican, we're talking about a moderate Republican. But yes, within the primary slate, Haley has been very cautious and I think strategic about what she said about abortion.

While you have people like former Vice President Mike Pence calling on all of his Republican rivals to take a position in favor of a national abortion ban after 15 weeks, something that isn't likely to happen because of, you know, in Congress, but nonetheless, that's a position he's staked out. Haley, meanwhile, has said, look, that's not realistic. Republicans don't have the votes. She's right about that. But that also, probably not like the unspoken message was, I am Trump without the baggage, right? I am kind of able to tap into a lot of the things that he tapped into, but I don't have, you know, multiple indictments next year. How effective has that idea kind of been for him considering the campaign is struggling? Yeah, I mean, it's your classic electability pitch. Like he's trying to be the candidate that appeals to the voters who are like, oh, we like Trump, but can he win a general election? And, you know, if you have a campaign that can't even make it through, like, the summer with the

same people running it and, you know, having all this like press about turnover and chaos, like is your electability argument all that strong? It's an open question. And I think like that's why other candidates seem to be creating a little bit more ground for themselves because, you know, the people who are looking for an electable candidate probably want to like at least a more, you know, together kind of campaign to look at. Okay, let's take a quick break. And when we get back, we're going to talk about Mike Pence. And we're back. And this week, former Vice President Mike Pence made his pitch for the nomination, arguing that the Republican Party should return to its traditional conservative values. So today I asked my fellow Republicans this. In the days to come, will we be the party of conservatism or will we follow the siren song of populism unmoored to conservative principles? Sarah, you were at that speech in New Hampshire. Tell us more about the Pence pitch. Yeah. So, I mean, big picture here. Pence, like everybody else in the primary, is struggling to catch up to Donald Trump,

struggling to come up with a message that sets him apart. And he's been very careful about how he's talked about his former boss. You know, we've seen him defend his own behavior on January 6th, while also saying at the Milwaukee debate, the first Republican debate in Milwaukee a couple weeks ago, that he would support Trump as the party's nominee if he's the eventual nominee, even if he's convicted in a court of law. So I think what was interesting about this speech is, as we heard, Pence was really taking on his former boss in a more direct way. And he was doing it by trying to contrast Trumpist populism with traditional Reaganite conservatism. And he defined that in a couple of different ways.

He talked about essentially a willingness to abandon constitutional principles, which was a clear allusion to his former boss. He talked about cutting funding to Ukraine. And he painted a picture of the Republican Party as one that was rooted in this Reaganite conservatism that goes back, he talked about 50 years, of principles that he described as traditional values, limited government, free market principles. And he said this rising populism that he sees in the Republican Party is a threat to both his party and to the country. Can I just ask, is there any indication, Sarah and also Ashley, when you talk to voters, when you look at polling that Republican voters want this return to, quote unquote, traditional conservative values, that small government is a priority. Like, is there any indication that this is something that there is an appetite for for the average Republican primary voter? I mean, primary voters, no. I mean, I think 2016, if you need any evidence that the base of the party feels a type of way about this, they chose Donald Trump resoundingly

over someone like Jeb Bush. It was a rebuke of this kind of conservatism. And that hasn't really changed as long as Trump has been their front runner. Right. So, you know, it's like Pence is kind of talking to a general election kind of audience, but he's still trying to make a pitch and get primary voters based Republicans on his side. And it's kind of an interesting pitch to make because he did run with Donald Trump. And Pence supported policies that added to the national debt, which is not in line with, I guess, the argument he's trying to make to voters today that he's a fiscal conservative, that he's for limited government. You could certainly look at his position on abortion as contrary to limited government, depending on your view of the role of government, of course. He is really trying to thread the needle here. And one thing that'll be interesting is to see if younger voters even resonate with someone like Ronald Reagan. I mean, that was more than 40 years ago.

And I was talking to that Republican pollster, and he told me that this is actually like a really interesting line that Republican candidates have to walk because they can outright say that Trump is unfit for the presidency because you're telling Republican voters who likely voted for him either once or twice at this point that they made a mistake. And that's just like a really hard psychological leap to expect someone to sort of admit to themselves that they made a mistake this way, especially something as big as, you know, choosing a presidential candidate. So Republican candidates are in the position of saying, like, I'm a better option than Trump. But it wasn't a mistake that you voted for him last time.

Sarah, do you think that other candidates are going to kind of keep trying to thread this needle? Or is there going to come a point at some point this year or next year where candidates are going to, if they want to make a splash, are going to come out stronger against Trump? I think we saw Pence dipping his toe in the water with that. Although I think you can see why so many candidates are taking this approach of just being cautious about what they say about Trump, sort of limiting their criticism. There obviously are voters who want something else, Republican voters. I spoke yesterday at one of the Nikki Haley events to a woman named Betty Gay. She's a former state representative, former Trump voter. She said she supported his policies, but she really doesn't like the way he talks, something I've heard from voters, you know, for many years now. For like a decade now, right? Yes, some of whom still vote for him and continue to support him.

But Betty Gay told me she's frustrated because she doesn't think that Trump can win. So we have a cult of people who don't realize anybody else is competent. So that worries me. That really worries me. People have got to wake up and use their arithmetic skills because it's not higher math. It's real. Just count the numbers. 45 percent of Republicans does not win a national election. And right now, you know, I think it's something like a little over half of Republicans say they're supporting Trump. But her point is Trump supporting voters are not enough to win next November. Well, let's leave it there for today. We'll be back in your feeds tomorrow with our latest interview with a Republican presidential contender. Our friends Susan Davis and Tamara Keith talked with former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie earlier today. I'm looking at this as a real moment for change for our party. And I got into this race because I felt like no one was making that case.

The full interview will hit your feeds tomorrow. I'm Miles Parks. I cover voting. I'm Ashley Lopez. I cover politics. I'm Sarah McKinnon. I also cover politics. And thank you for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast.