The NPR Politics Podcast - Can Trump Get His Megabill Through Congress?

Episode Date: May 20, 2025

House Republicans are working to advance a massive bill that essentially wraps up all of President Trump's legislative goals. The conference is largely, but not entirely, unified, and just a few Republican defectors could derail the whole thing. So President Trump stopped by Capitol Hill to make his pitch to the skeptics. This podcast: voting correspondent Miles Parks, Congressional correspondent Barbara Sprunt, and White House correspondent Tamara Keith. This podcast was produced by Bria Suggs and edited by Lexie Schapitl. Our executive producer is Muthoni Muturi.Listen to every episode of the NPR Politics Podcast sponsor-free, unlock access to bonus episodes with more from the NPR Politics team, and support public media when you sign up for The NPR Politics Podcast+ at plus.npr.org/politics.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

On the Code Switch podcast, 40 years ago, the Philadelphia Police Department carried out a bombing that destroyed a black neighborhood on live TV. And yet the deadly events of that day have been largely forgotten. There is now a historic marker because a group of middle school children were assigned to look at police brutality in their community. Listen to the Code Switch podcast from the NPR network. This is Jessica from Southwestern Washington. I'm currently up north in Bellingham at my child's tattoo studio, where they are giving me a tattoo of their baby footprint,

right in the spot where, 27 years ago, they frequently kicked me from the inside. We're almost done. This podcast was recorded at 1 21 p.m. on Tuesday, May 20th, 2025. Things may have changed by the time you hear this, but hopefully my first tattoo will be healed. Oh my gosh.

I was listening to that thinking, what is that sound? Is it like a movie theater with an old reel? What is it? And then bam, tattoo. That's a fun little bonding moment. I feel like it, I've never heard a tattoo timestamp. I feel like it's amazing that we still are finding new things to have on the top of this podcast.

Hey there, it's the MPR Politics podcast. I'm Miles Parks. I cover voting. I'm Barbara Sprint. I cover Congress. And I'm Tamara Keith. I cover the White House. House Republicans are working to advance a massive bill that pairs tax cut extensions with increased border funding and deep spending cuts across the federal government. It's essentially all of President Trump's legislative priorities wrapped into one bill. And stop me if you heard this one before, just a few Republican defectors in the House could derail the whole thing. So Trump stopped by Capitol Hill today to make his case. Before we get to that, Barbara, remind everyone what is

actually in this giant bill. Sure. So this is a bill that would accomplish much of the president's domestic policy agenda. And it includes things like extending the 2017 tax cuts, which expire at the end of the year. And it's a major priority for basically every Republican up here on Capitol Hill. It includes no taxes on tips and overtime, cuts to Medicaid, work requirements for Medicaid, cuts to the food assistance program called SNAP. You know, one of the issues that members of the Freedom Caucus and Fiscal Hawks have with this bill is that it costs a lot. And forecasters say that it could add trillions to the deficit over, you know, a period of a decade. So that's very

concerning for people who feel that the government should be in the business of reducing the deficit. And so obviously, there are some holdups right now, or this bill would have already been passed. What are the biggest things that are causing conflict right now? Yeah, there's two big groups of people up here who have issues with the bill as it's written. And they're the fiscal hawks, a lot of the Freedom Caucus, who really want significant deficit reduction. They see that as an opportunity and a mandate and they want to take advantage of that. And blue state Republicans who are pushing to lift the cap

on the deduction of state and local taxes, which are called SALT. And House leadership has been negotiating with these two groups for a while now, but it really ramped up over the weekend. On Friday, a handful of Republicans on the Budget Committee tanked the vote so that the bill could not advance. And that resulted in leadership spending the weekend negotiating, trying to move the needle. They did just enough. It passed out of that same committee late Sunday night. But those holdouts didn't vote yes, they voted present. So it advanced, but they still say they need more concessions in order to support it. They have gotten something from those negotiations.

They have work requirements on the table now for Medicaid, kicking in sooner than originally intended with the bill. But a lot of members told me coming out of this meeting with the president this morning that, yes, the majority of the conference is on board with the bill as it's written. Someone said 98% of us are there.

But this is a conference with a really narrow majority. So 98% might not be good enough. Well, Tam, what do we know about the president visiting Capitol Hill? What did he say to these kind of few holdouts who he desperately needs to get on his side? His message was, get this done. And I think he probably said it in multiple different ways. Coming out of the meeting, he said, there is Republican unity. That was a meeting of love. Let me tell you, that was love in that room. There was no shouting. I think it was a meeting of love.

But his power of positive thinking there doesn't really solve the math problem that Barbara is talking about. And some of the other things he said could make that math problem worse. In remarks to reporters, he stopped four different times around the Capitol at various microphones to talk about what he wants. And at one point, he basically bashed blue state governors and said that SALT issue that's so important to Republicans who are the majority makers, these Republicans from blue states who gave the House Republicans the majority, he essentially said like, you're not getting this. He thinks it would just be a gift to these blue state governors who he made clear that he really doesn't like. And then he

said no cuts to Medicaid. Sure, you can go after waste, fraud, and abuse, but he doesn't want really big cuts to Medicaid, which is in conflict with what's actually in the bill that he's trying to get people to pass. And it's also in conflict with the goals of the fiscal hawks who want more spending cuts. Okay. So Barbara, specifically on Medicaid, what would this bill do? You know, the part of Medicaid that's getting a lot of attention right now

is what the CBO, the Nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, has estimated if this bill does go into effect. And that estimate is that 8.6 million people enrolled in Medicaid could lose coverage. As Tam mentioned, the president has talked a lot about, and so has the House Speaker, about cutting waste, fraud, and abuse from the program. However, the target numbers in this bill, cutting waste, fraud, and abuse will not cut it in terms of reaching that number.

So there's a lot of concern that folks will lose coverage who currently have it. And then of course there's the work requirements element. House Freedom Caucus members are pushing to have work requirements for able-bodied adults without dependents to kick in quicker. Tim, I do feel like Trump is pretty overt in the way he's trying to convince these people to do what he wants, right? It's not, I'm going to convince you on some policy position. It is pretty much you are going to get primaried or you're going to lose your election, right?

Yeah, he wasn't really there to bridge differences or hammer out nuance in when these things start or when they finish to try to get the numbers where they need to be. He wants this done through sheer force of will. And he brought these guys to the dance, right? Every single House Republican was on a ballot with Donald Trump in 2024. And he has singled out one particular member, Thomas Massey from Kentucky, who is someone who is not easily persuaded by President Trump, but he's making an example of him for any other Republican who might stray. Well how is that message landing, Barbara, for the Republican

members who have, to this point, voiced opposition or been skeptical of this bill? Did you get a sense at this point that Trump's message is persuading them? You know, it's not like I expected any of the holdouts to come right out of the meeting and say, OK, never mind, like we've changed our minds, we're fully on board. But several members did indicate that they're more optimistic now. You know, I talked to Tennessee Congressman Tim Burchett. He's part of the Freedom Caucus. He was skeptical about the bill as it was written, but here's what he had to say coming out of the meeting. That's like an NBA ballgame, boys.

Wait till the last two minutes and watch it, and we're about at two minutes and 30 seconds right now. I think there'll be a little arm twisting, a little gnashing of teeth, but I think the president will deliver like he always does. Don't count him out. Other members told me that they think that Trump did move the holdouts a little bit, that they're not quite there yet, but that it was an impactful meeting. But the comments that Trump made in the room, I don't think were enough to sweeten the deal

for that particular salt group that we were talking about. New York Congressman Mike Lawler said he respects the president, but it's just something that he can't budge on. He says it's a major issue for his constituents in New York. He said he'd never vote for a tax bill without raising the cap on these deductions. So there's still a lot of daylight on that particular front. Yeah. I mean, I think that the point that Congressman Burchett is making is a good one, which is

there have been a few stops along the way with this legislation already where it looked like there is no way Republicans are not going to work this out. And then Trump says you have to do it and they say, okay. And then the Republicans just sort of fall in line. This could be the time when they don't fall in line, but there's also a really good chance that he does that thing he does. You know, like I talked to a former Trump administration official who said when he gets members on the phone, they find it very hard to say no. Hmm. All right, well let's leave it there for now. We're gonna take a quick break.

On the Code Switch podcast, 40 years ago, the Philadelphia Police Department carried out a bombing that destroyed a black neighborhood on live TV. And yet the deadly events of that day have been largely forgotten. There is now a historic marker because a group of middle school children were assigned to look at police brutality in their community. Listen to the Code Switch podcast from the NPR Network. And we're back. And we've been talking about President Trump's efforts

to get House Republicans on board with his legislative agenda and this massive tax bill that they are trying to pass right now. And, Tam, I'm wondering, as you look with the president's visit today to the Hill, how different is how he's negotiating or how he's communicating with lawmakers this time around compared to the first Trump administration? I know that after winning the popular vote in 2024, he has said, his administration has

said that they feel like they have a mandate to pretty much do what voters sent them here to do. Has that changed how he communicates with these lawmakers? Well, he is certainly behaving like he's very empowered. Just ask all the branches of government that are being steamrolled by the White House and the president's executive authority. But the other thing to note, and we've noted it before on this podcast, but this is President Trump's Republican Party.

There are not a lot of Republicans left in Congress who are anti-Trump Republicans or uncomfortable publicly with Trump or pushing back on him in any public way. At this point it is extremely surprising to see any Republican push back on the president at all because all of the people who opposed him have have been purged from the elected Republican Party and you, you know, as we saw today, him saying, well, if you don't support this bill, then you should lose. That's really where he is right now. But I will say that I recently talked to someone who was part of the first Trump administration, who is watching how the White House is working on this bill now and managing it. And this person believes that the White House is perhaps banking more than they should on

the persuasive power of President Trump, on Trump as the ultimate closer, and that they haven't been doing as much of the work as they did in the first term of sending cabinet officials to people's districts to make a case for that bill, or lining up local officials and influential people in their district to call and say, no, you've really got to do this. This person hasn't seen as much of that, sort of the behind the scenes efforts to move lawmakers. And it seems that they are really just counting on the president to twist those arms.

I mean, that's the thing, right? These House members are up for election every two years and it's going to be them who are facing voters if there are, you know, cuts to SNAP or cuts to Medicaid or anything like that. Barbara, are you, do you get a sense from some of these lawmakers that the midterm elections that are really already at the forefront of how they're thinking about voting on this bill? Well, you know, like on the one hand, I think that the next midterm elections are on the forefront of House members' minds the day after they win an election. That's just sort of the nature of the beast in the House. But yes, members have expressed concerns about Medicaid cuts and how it impacts their constituents.

But still, it's like almost ridiculous to say because we've been talking about it for a while, but this is still early in the process. We've not even touched the Senate yet. So the exact contours of what we'll be looking at impact wise next year is still very much unknown. And then of course, once it works its way through the House, then it comes to the Senate. It's not going to be any easier to get through in the upper chamber than it has been in the House.

Senators are already trashing the bill, saying they can't vote for it as it is. And so there's also this interesting dynamic of a lot of House members are going to be voting on something that has fairly controversial elements like cutting Medicaid and might not even be the final product. Yeah, they are going to have to walk the plank. And for some of them, it really will be walking the plank. President Trump is making the case that if they don't do this, they will be punished by voters. making the case that if they don't do this, they will be punished by voters. But there's a risk on the other side as well, which is if they do do this, they could be punished by voters. And that is just a reality of when presidents have unitary control, when they

have the White House and the House and the Senate, they do big, bold things. And then often they're punished by voters for overreaching, for overplaying their mandate. Okay. Well, let's leave it there for now. I'm sure we will be talking about this a lot the next couple of days and the next couple of weeks. I'm Miles Parks. I cover voting. I'm Barbara Sprint. I cover Congress. And I'm Tamara Keith. I cover the White House. And thank you for listening to the MPR Politics Podcast. This message comes from Satva.

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On the Code Switch podcast, 40 years ago, the Philadelphia Police Department carried out a bombing that destroyed a Black neighborhood on live TV. And yet the deadly events of that day have been largely forgotten. There is now a historic marker because a group of middle school children were assigned to look at police brutality in their community. Listen to the Code Switch podcast from the NPR Network.