The NPR Politics Podcast - Candidates — Some Of Them, Anyway — Visit N.H. Ahead Of Primary

Episode Date: December 11, 2023

The first-in-the-nation primary is set for Jan. 23, but President Biden is staying out of the Democrats' contest and is not on the ballot. Republicans are fighting to take down Donald Trump, and, in the background, the Lesser-Known Candidate Forum encourages everyone to make a run for the highest office. This episode: political correspondent Susan Davis, senior White House correspondent Tamara Keith, and New Hampshire Public Radio senior political reporter and editor Josh Rogers.This episode was edited by Casey Morell and Erica Morrison. It was produced by Jeongyoon Han. Our executive producer is Muthoni Muturi.Unlock access to this and other bonus content by supporting The NPR Politics Podcast+. Sign up via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org. Connect:Email the show at [e-mail] the NPR Politics Podcast Facebook Group.Subscribe to the NPR Politics Newsletter.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Hi, this is Brody from Tupelo, Mississippi. I just got great news. My mom is officially cancer-free. This podcast was recorded at 1029 a.m. on Monday, December 11th. Things may have changed by the time you hear this, but I'll still be thankful for the doctors and nurses who made this Christmas season extra special. Love you, Mom. Okay, here's the show. That's a good son right there. I'm very happy for them. Hey there, it's the NPR Politics Podcast. I'm Susan Davis. I cover politics. And I'm Tamara Keith. I cover the White House. And with us today is Josh Rogers from New Hampshire Public Radio. Welcome back to the pod, Josh.

Good to be here. And to no surprise, today we're going to be talking about New Hampshire politics, which holds the first presidential primary. This year it's happening on January 23rd. Let's talk about Republicans first because that's where the more dynamic primary is playing out. Josh, every couple of years, candidates running either focus on Iowa or focus on New Hampshire to try to make it their early stage strategy. With the amount of candidates, obviously it's winnowed a fair amount, but who is most focused on New Hampshire to try to make it their early stage strategy. With the amount of candidates, obviously, it's winnowed a fair amount. But who is most focused on New Hampshire? Well, former Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey has made New Hampshire, I guess you could

call his unitary focus. You know, he hasn't moved in exactly, but he or really maybe even had the most campaign events here. But he's sort of hanging it all on New Hampshire, which, as you may recall, he also did in 2016 to no great effect then. You know, he's reaching out to independent voters. There are a lot of them here really leaning hard into the anti-Trump message of his campaign. Nikki Haley's spent a fair amount of time here, too. But as far as really focusing entirely on New Hampshire, it's definitely Christie. You know, what's interesting to me is that if you look at polls, it tells you that the highest concentration of Trump opponents or Trump skeptics in the Republican Party are college-educated voters. New Hampshire has a huge chunk of college-educated voters as part of their electorate. And yet Donald Trump is still far and away the leading candidate in the race there. I mean, do you feel that on the ground? Does Trump still feel like the leading candidate in the race there. I mean, do you feel that on

the ground? Does Trump still feel like the dominant presence in this race? Well, on the ground, I mean, he hasn't campaigned here so much. And the mechanics of how his campaign is reaching out to people, if it is, have remained a bit opaque here. So, you know, there's a perception of inevitability. You can feel like you're, you know, at a campaign event where somebody is legitimately vying for something, and then you walk out and you look at the polls, and it suggests it's not competitive. I mean, maybe things will shake up. It'll be interesting to see, you know, who shows up. He's going to be at the University of New Hampshire this coming weekend. At a lot of his events, there, you know, there are big rallies where

there are people from all across New England who come. So it is really hard to get a feel for exactly what's going on. You can definitely feel that Nikki Haley has picked up steam a great deal here really since the early fall. And that appears to be continuing. Chris Christie is trying hard. Ron DeSantis is not – there's not much oomph in the room at his events, although he has core conservative supporters. So it's a very odd feeling. Yeah, I was at a Chris Christie event on Thursday, first event after the big Republican debate.

And I'm going around the room, like interviewing people. It was at a college as part of a college tour, going around the room, interviewing people. And the one person who was like a true, real Republican in the room was a bus driver who brought a group of students from a different college. And everybody else was like, well, you know, I'm an independent. I'm a Democrat and I just happen to be around. Or like, I want to see someone in person who I've seen on TV. You didn't get the feeling that it was like a big groundswell of Chris Christie energy as much as mild curiosity. And then some independent voters, I mean, his campaign's theory of the case here is, yeah, we're not going to win Republicans, but we could win independent voters who can vote in the Republican primary. But there are a lot of independents. And given the absence of a competitive primary on the Democratic side and given, you know, the Trump effect, independents who do tend to have some sort of ideological persuasion one way or the other, regardless of their calling themselves independents who do tend to have some sort of ideological, you know, persuasion one way or the other, regardless of their calling themselves independents, like, you know, they may be more of

a factor than they typically are. And, you know, you have to go back to 2012, the last time there was a Republican primary and a non-competitive Democratic primary. And in that primary, as many independents voted on the Republican side as Republicans, essentially. So we may be in a circumstance like that, which could, you know, give hope to non-Trump candidates. But, you know, right now that appears to be their hope, according to polls. Josh, is it fair to say that New Hampshire could once again be affected by the outcome in the Iowa caucuses. Donald Trump also leads there, but there's room for a number two. And if somebody else has a good night in Iowa,

that could change maybe some of the calculations of these independent voters or whatever other calculations are being made in New Hampshire. Well, certainly Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis and their supporters hope that's the case. You know, Haley, you know, this is very sort of gut level reaction and sort of anecdotally, I mean, she seems to be at the moment the most poised to reap the benefit of a performance in Iowa that exceeds expectations. I mean, there is momentum for her on the ground. There are lots of at her events, she often makes a point of asking, is anyone here for the first time? And, you know, at her recent events, there are a lot of people here for the first time. Part of that is just, this is the time of year when voters really start paying attention, particularly more casual ones. But she remains somebody that voters likely to

vote in the Republican primary who haven't seen her are still curious about? Tim, there is technically a New Hampshire Democratic primary, but it doesn't ultimately matter because President Biden is not taking part in the New Hampshire primary. Democrats have declared South Carolina would be their first primary in a Biden attempt to remake the calendar. But there are Democrats running. Marianne Williamson, Minnesota Congressman Dean Phillips, they are campaigning there. And 19 other people. And 19 other people. Does the Democratic primary matter? And if so, why? Well, if you ask Dean Phillips, who I spent some time with on Friday, it does matter.

And the reason it matters is he feels that Joe Biden is historically weak for an incumbent president. And if Dean Phillips and his whole strategy is that he will pull off a win in New Hampshire, in a state where the incumbent president isn't on the ballot, and that will then produce conversation. My contention is on January 24th, that morning after, I think the headlines are going to say, wow, wow, wow, wow, wow. Things changed a little last night and we got a race. And his idea is that he will get the headlines out of New Hampshire and then people will pay attention to who he is and the case that he's making,

which isn't that Joe Biden is a bad president. He fully supports Biden's policies and everything he's done as president, but that it's time for a new generation. And it's a stretch. Sure. It's a big stretch. But let me put it this way, though. There are some people advocating to have a Biden write in campaign for the primary. Does that sort of signal that maybe there is some concern among Biden world that something happening in New Hampshire could be embarrassing for the president or ding him? And frankly, his popularity isn't all that high to begin with? Well, so Biden world may not be the right answer here because basically New Hampshire's Democratic Party is in a fight with the National Democratic Party and the incumbent president isn't on the ballot. But there is now, and Josh can speak to this too, but there is now this right in Biden effort, which is pretty shoestring at the moment, though a super PAC has been formed that is separate from the more shoestring grassroots, they like to say, effort.

But they they're what they're trying to organize to do right now is have at least one person with a sign that says write in Biden at every single polling place in New Hampshire, because they have they have to not just get people to write in Joe Biden. They also have to get Democrats to even like come out and vote in a primary where the incumbent president isn't on the ballot. All right. Let's take a quick break and we'll be right back. And we're back. And Tammy, you just got back from a reporting trip in New Hampshire where you went and attended one of the lesser-known candidate forums. Tell us about that. What'd you learn? Oh, it is the lesser-known candidate forum. Capital T. Yes. So as we discussed, there are a lot of people actually running for president in New Hampshire. In a lot of states, the bar to entry is very high. You have to gather a lot of signatures.

In New Hampshire, you basically need a thousand bucks and the ability to get to the Secretary of State's office. And as a result, there are a lot of people who are running for president. And, you know, what I learned through going to this event, it has been happening for 50 years and, you know, it's something of a sideshow to say the least. But are the people that are showing up there voters who are actually considering these folks? Or is it a bit of that political tourism that is really well known in the early states? Oh, the audience was a combination of what I would say is political tourism and family members of the people running for president. I mean, I guess there are a number of people who earnestly are running, but I mean, it tends to be a high percentage of repeat candidates. And, you know, maybe it's how politics ought to be, but maybe not.

It is this beautiful combination of absolute earnest. They woke up in the morning. They thought, you know, like I could be president. I should be president. And I think of a man named Donald Picard, who in his opening statement said this. When I began this rather quixotic journey a few months ago, I had as a stretch goal that I would be participating in a presidential debate. And here I am. Wow. And then there's performance art. I don't think there's any other way to describe it. Somebody like Paperboy Love Prince, who I thought was dressed like a genie, but he told me that the big poofy red sleeves he was wearing along with a Game Boy around his neck were meant to signify love and a heart. But he was okay with the genie idea because he said, you know, I'm here to grant wishes maybe. And then there's Vermin Supreme. Vermin Supreme will take away your guns and give you better ones. And these better guns will shoot marshmallows, but they will still be lethal. Josh, I don't know how long he's been running for president.

A very long time. A very long time. A very long time. Well, he wears a boot on his head. He often talks about and sometimes campaigns alongside a miniature pony. I don't know. He's run at least four or five times and he lives in Massachusetts. And, you know, the bar of entry is low and there's no indication that he's going to stop running. Josh, as you said, though, it's like there's something about this that's like sort of time honored, sort of endearing.

But to me, it almost feels like a bit of a throwback kind of event when politics was maybe more joyful or politics has been so dark, frankly, in recent years. Like these kind of candidate forums almost seem out of place with our current national political dynamic. Well, I think that's correct. I also think it's true that a lot of things about the New Hampshire primary, I've come to see them as reflections of what New Hampshire wants to tell itself about its primary. And, you know, the Secretary of State's office, former Secretary of State Bill Gardner, current Secretary of State David Scanlon like to say New Hampshire is a place where anyone can run for president and realize their childhood dream. And, you know, this event is the embodiment and reflection of that.

Yeah, anyone can run, but not anyone can win. And, like, honestly, there have been a lot of really good people who have run for president and have not had a chance. Well, that's something these French people will tell you. They'll tell you when the actual tally comes out, see, I got as many votes as like, you know, Mike Pence or whomever was once a politician who was at least consequential somewhere who, you know, tanks it in the primary here. I'm curious to ask you both, if you get a sense of where New Hampshire voters are about the importance of the primary and presidential politics. And by that, I mean, I know that the state party is fighting with the DNC and like the power structures.

I understand the state law, all of that. But just regular voters, did they bring it up to you? Are they very vested in this like identity of New Hampshire as the first primary state? Or can you see it sort of moving away from them, particularly in the Democratic Party, which is trying to diversify its calendar? Well, I do think that polling does show that it's more important to older voters. Republicans are more into it than Democrats. I do think there is a generational thing. And the farther we get from primaries where it was really wide open, where our politics weren't quite so national and sort of digital in terms of everybody knowing everything immediately and like the notion of special things happening in New Hampshire or Iowa, you know, fades a bit.

I do think that the notion of people want to get out and participate in the ways that are traditionally venerated here in New Hampshire, that sense is fading. You know, I was talking to a group of voters at this lesser known candidate forum who were like, yeah, you know, like last cycle, I had a presidential candidate come to my house to spin dreidel because she was curious about dreidel. And like that sort of experience, it can only happen in New Hampshire. But it's not clear that that experience is really determining who becomes president of the United States anymore. All right. Josh Rogers from New Hampshire Public Radio. Thank you so much. Thank you.

I'm sure we'll be talking to you again soon. We'll be back in your feeds tomorrow. I'm Susan Davis. I cover politics. I'm Tamara Keith. I cover the White House. And thanks for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast.