The NPR Politics Podcast - Democrats Build Momentum — But Midterms Are Usually A Nightmare For Party In Power

Episode Date: August 29, 2022

Even as Democrats see their support swell, they are still in real danger of losing control of the House to Republicans. The sitting president's party often loses more than two dozen House seats during midterm elections — and Democrats have just a single-digit majority.This episode: White House correspondent Asma Khalid, political reporter Deepa Shivaram, and senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro.Learn more about upcoming live shows of The NPR Politics Podcast at nprpresents.org.Support the show and unlock sponsor-free listening with a subscription to The NPR Politics Podcast Plus. Learn more at plus.npr.org/politics Connect:Email the show at [e-mail] the NPR Politics Podcast Facebook Group.Subscribe to the NPR Politics Newsletter.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Hey there, it's Tamara Keith from the NPR Politics Podcast, and I am so excited because we are getting ready to go back out on the road, and Houston, you're up first. Join Susan Davis, Asma Khalid, Ashley Lopez, Domenico Montanaro, and me at Zilka Hall on Thursday, September 15th. You can find more information about tickets, including for students, at nprpresents.org. Thanks to our partners at Houston Public Media. We hope to see you there. Hi, this is Maggie in Beaufort, South Carolina, and we are on the way to the hospital to deliver

our second son. This podcast was recorded at 1.08 p.m. Eastern Time on Monday, August 29th of 2022. Things may have changed by the time you hear it, but hopefully we will have our final child home with us. Okay, here's the show. Wow. Hopefully, hopefully, right? I feel like sometimes. What a time to record a time stamp. I'm always amazed when people think to do that in the midst of, you know, having a baby.

I was just going to say, on the way to the hospital to think, you know what? Now's a good time to get a timestamp in. I love that. Hey there, it's the NPR Politics Podcast. I'm Asma Khalid. I cover the White House. I'm Deepa Shivaram. I cover politics.

And I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent. And in most of the country, primaries have now wrapped up, which means it is now general election season, which I know for all you listeners is sort of like the most exciting time of the year. So today on the show, the fight for control of the House of Representatives. And I will say, you know, it is essentially a golden rule of politics, Domenico, that the president's party will lose seats in a midterm election. You know, there are, of course, exceptions, but that is the usual rule. And it feels like for months, a lot of the political chatter has suggested that this year would be no different, that 2022 was going to be a bad year for Democrats. But then, you know, last week, it seems like this special election in New York State did resuscitate Democrats' hopes.

Yeah, and it's not just that. I mean, you know, there's been an entire sort of landscape shift post-Dobbs, post the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade, which made abortion legal in the country. You know, I talked to Democrats. I talked to Republicans. Republicans see it as a big fundraising boost for Democrats. Democrats are seeing this as just motivating to their base. And, you know, it's a difficult environment generally for Democrats with high inflation, people pretty pessimistic about the economy and the direction of the country and usually do blame the sitting president for that. But we are seeing Democrats pick up some momentum, not just with that special election, but the abortion related ballot measure in Kansas and other things. Right. And it's also the timing of this, too. seeing Democrats pick up some momentum, not just with that special election, but the abortion

related ballot measure in Kansas and other things. Right. And it's also the timing of this, too. I mean, when you think about it, this is a time when when voters are kind of just starting to pay attention, thinking about, you know, maybe making a plan to vote, thinking about how they're going to vote. And it's when a lot of these even trigger bans are going to affect. So this Dobbs decision happened earlier in the summer. but there's a lot of momentum picking up right now. Abortion is an issue that affects, you know, I think one in four women in America, which affects a lot of other people.

And so right as people are starting to pay attention, there are a lot more bans going to affect, a lot more laws going to affect. And Democrats really see that as a selling point to get their base out. You know, both of you all were talking about the potential for abortion to energize Democratic voters. But it feels like there's these multiple, at times conflicting data points to interpret around the midterm election cycles. And Domenico, how do you make sense of that? Because when I go out and hear from voters, I hear a lot about inflation. I hear frustrations from some Democrats about the way that the congressional districts have been drawn that they feel in some cases it advantages Republicans in this midterm race.

All of those things are true. We have to be able to look at these things in a nuanced way. The fact is, in swing districts, which do slightly lean right in this country right now, and you have a lot of Democrats in those seats. Democrats have to appeal to independence and Republican leaning independence. And the issue set is very different than, say, in, you know, New York City or Oakland. I mean, they just are different. And the biggest concern for independence and people in swing districts continues to be inflation. At the same time, Democratic polling has showed

that abortion rights is something that is motivating to independents as well, because they hotly disagree, overwhelmingly disagree with the Supreme Court's decision. And, you know, we know that these midterms can be base elections, and the voters who are most active, most enthused, you know, are the ones who go out to the polls. I also think we need to realize Democrats only have a five-seat majority. That traditionally, you know, in a president's first midterm, a president's party usually loses about 26 House seats on average since World War II. And that makes it a difficult landscape for the party in power. And what's really important

is fighting at the margins, which Democrats think this will help them do. So do you all feel like the landscape has changed even more in recent weeks? Because, you know, the reversal of Roe versus Wade has been in the political climate for a while now. And it does seem like Democrats have become increasingly energized or enthusiastic about their prospects recently. And I'm wondering, do you all chalk that up to some of the legislation that's passed in Congress? Do you chalk that up at all to student loan relief that the president announced just last week? These are things, in theory, meant to energize his base of Democratic supporters. And do the Democrats you're speaking with,

Domenico, interpret this as being something new and changing the momentum for their party? Yeah. And the president's not just talking about abortion rights, for example. I mean, talking about guns, student loans, as you mentioned. And a big piece of why Biden's approval rating has been so low has been because of Democrats, frankly, who've been frustrated without the party getting more done. And with the Inflation Reduction Act passing, they do feel like they've seen a little bit more. You're seeing Democrats be less frustrated and upset with the president. And you're seeing them come on board, which helps his approval rating, which helps Democrats overall. Yeah, you can't ignore also the impact that this has on younger voters in particular, which can be a margin of victory for Democrats in some of these really tight races.

Student debt relief is such a tangible issue. I was speaking with someone last week who was talking about how, you know, the inflation reduction was a really big win for Democrats, a really big win for Biden. But, you know, for a lot of younger voters, they're looking at that and it's, you know, maybe a success, but they don't really know what immediate impact that that has for them. Student debt relief is a very immediate impact and particularly for young voters of color and younger voters who maybe come from families who, you know, didn't have some economic advantages. And they are finally seeing, you know, a Democratic Party that's really working for them. I was talking to some Gen Z voters, too, who were saying, you know, this gives me a reason to go out and vote in November. I might have thought I was going to, but when you see something like debt relief coming down the pipeline, it really encourages younger voters and a lot of voters of color, which Biden can kind of point to

and say, you know, these are groups that really benefited him in 2020. And if people come out and vote in 2022, this really could make a difference. And if you check off the boxes of some of the things that young voters are most interested in, student debt obviously being right there near the top of the list. Climate change, also a big piece, which there were some big initiatives within the Inflation Reduction Act on. And gun rights. Now, gun rights, a little bit harder to get stuff done on, but there was the one piece of legislation that did get through. So, you know, it doesn't always go so cleanly and smoothly,

but that's the realities of having a divided government and a 50-50 Senate. You know, to your point, I saw a tweet earlier today from John De La Volpe, who does a lot of polling on young voters, and he cited this CBS News poll tracker of where young voters were before the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act and student loan forgiveness executive action, and then after, and you saw a 10-point increase in President Biden's approval rating among the under age 30. I mean, that's a sizable leap in any poll, but I would say sizable leap, especially amongst young voters who for months and months have been extremely disappointed

by how the president has been handling things. And I think that it shows you also the power of messaging and the attention that that's gotten because, you know, the amount of money is, you know, a lot of people have a lot more debt than $10,000, for example. All right, let's take a quick break, and we'll be back in a moment. And we're back. And the other week on this show, we talked about the Senate and minority leader Mitch McConnell's frustrations with candidate quality. He seems essentially worried that the kinds of Republican candidates that are running right now in some of the most hotly contested elections could end up costing Republicans winnable seats. Inder Domenico,

is it your sense that that kind of assessment about candidate quality could also apply to the House? Definitely. Explain more. The NRCC, the committee responsible for helping get Republicans elected to the House, the National Republican Campaign Committee, has been quietly telling candidates in these swing districts to distance themselves from former President Trump, for example. It's easier said than done, though, because if you do that too loudly, Trump is going to take aim at you, and that's going to make it more difficult. But in a general election, Trump's brand is really going to be tested with some of these candidates in some of these swing districts, depending on

the line that they walk and how strongly they embrace Trump. I want to actually ask you all a bit more about the former president, because it does feel like hanging over these midterm elections is the phantom of Trump. He's not running for office. He's not in office. And yet we hear so much about him in the news and you hear about him from voters. And Deepa, how do you make sense of that? You don't often see a former president really inserting himself at this point. And at the same time, also possibly running for president in two years later. It's an odd time. But Trump is still, you know, pretty top of mind as Democrats are kind of trying to draw those differences. And even Joe Biden last week kind of kicking off some of this general election rallying gave a speech in Maryland where he was really trying to draw those contrasts between Republicans and Democrats. I think the thing with younger voters, like we

were talking about before, and definitely other voters as well, is that some of the moves from Democrats to kind of deliver on some of these campaign promises and policy issues like student debt relief kind of make more of a difference, at least to the voters that I've spoken with, particularly younger voters, voters under the age of 30, that they kind of need those deliverables. You're saying more than the threat of Trump himself. Yeah, exactly. Exactly. That they are really concerned about, you know, someone like Trump, that they are very concerned about the state of democracy and the future of democracy. But at the same time, you know, they are worried about things like gas prices still. They're worried about inflation and they're definitely looking at ways that, you know, they are worried about things like gas prices still. They're worried about inflation and they're definitely looking at ways that, you know, they can look at things like

their debt and check that box off, if you will. And so those things are really top of mind for voters still, even with Trump in the background. Well, considering all of the attention that Trump has gotten recently, whether it's the FBI search or the January 6th committee really raising the profile. It really threatens to become for Republicans more of a choice between Biden Democrats and Trump Republicans as compared to a referendum, which usually is on the sitting president. That's where Republicans thought this was going to be at the beginning of the cycle. And a lot of them are slapping their foreheads, wondering how they're not able to get out of the shadow of Trump, even in a midterm. It sounds like that's a disadvantage for Republicans, right? I mean, he certainly has the potential to energize a base or portion of

the base of the Republican Party. But if you're talking about independence in a midterm election cycle, it seems like that could be a real liability. Look, this is somebody with a high disapproval or unfavorable rating in a lot of surveys. You know, Trump has a firm grip on the Republican Party, certainly. But when it comes to independents, and of course, Democrats, you know, he's a majority of the country are continue to say that they don't like him very much. And that makes you wonder, you know, what kind of effect is he going to have in swing districts with these kinds of candidates and in swing states in the Senate? You know, if Republicans wind up losing the Senate when they could have won by a couple seats, and they wind up not getting as many House seats as people projected that they

could have, a lot of people are going to start pointing the finger at Trump and start wondering if in 2024 they really want him to be the standard bearer and would he be the strongest person to go up against Biden. You know, when we're speaking about candidates being drawn to the extreme ends of their party, this sort of extreme polarization, some of that is no doubt because congressional districts in this country are drawn so carefully that they are essentially eliminating real competitive house contests. You know, there are what, maybe 30, 35 seats out of 435 that are

genuinely competitive? Yeah, I mean, there's about 30 to 35 swing districts. There's probably a little bit more than that that are competitive. But that generally means that these are seats that are not decided by five points or less, which means that you don't have a lot of candidates across the country who are needing to appeal to the middle. They're not needing to appeal to independents or leaners from either party. And I have to say, though, even though polarization has gone up tremendously since the mid-1990s and the parties have been stretched to their polls, it's not equal. Republicans, I think it's been pretty clear, including in this election cycle, are the party that's been pulled most to their poll because of the strength of Trump, while Democrats, honestly, a lot of pragmatists are continuing to win as Democrats continue to try to eye some of these swing districts where they have to defend their seats. All right. Well, let's leave it there for today.

And a special shout out to New Hampshire and Rhode Island. We did not forget about you all. We know you have not yet had your primaries and we see you. I'm Asma Khalid. I cover the White House. I'm Deepa Shivaram. I cover politics. And I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent And thank you all, as always, for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast