The NPR Politics Podcast - Fewer Than 30 Days Until This Whole Thing Is Over

Episode Date: October 7, 2024

This presidential cycle is the closest in recent memory and, despite what feels like an never-ending stream of unprecedented news, has remained nearly tied since Vice President Harris became the nominee. We chat about what forces could shape the outcome.This episode: White House correspondent Asma Khalid, senior editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro, and senior national political correspondent Mara Liasson.The podcast is produced by Jeongyoon Han, Casey Morell and Kelli Wessinger. Our editor is Eric McDaniel. Our executive producer is Muthoni Muturi.Listen to every episode of the NPR Politics Podcast sponsor-free, unlock access to bonus episodes with more from the NPR Politics team, and support public media when you sign up for The NPR Politics Podcast+ at plus.npr.org/politics.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Support for this podcast and the following message come from Autograph Collection Hotels, with over 300 independent hotels around the world, each exactly like nothing else. Autograph Collection is part of the Marriott Bonvoy portfolio of hotel brands. Find the unforgettable at AutographCollection.com. Hi, this is Andy at my camp in Tanzania, having just summited Mount Kilimanjaro with my son Richard, my daughter-in-law Holly, and four of their terrific millennial friends. Wow. We've been completely off the grid for eight days, so I'm looking forward to catching up on all the political news with my friends on the pod. This podcast was recorded at...

12.09 p.m. Eastern Time on Monday, October 7th of 2024. Things may have changed by the time you hear this, but I will have showered for the first time in eight days. Okay, here's the show. Congratulations. That's quite a feat. I volunteer to be NPR's new Rick Steves. Because we have so many listeners who go to so many places. I feel like we could put together a tour guide. We should do a travel pod.

We could take this show on the road after the 2024 election. Look at it, you guys editors. Live from Mount Kilimanjaro, the NPR Politics Podcast. Hey there, it's the NPR Politics Podcast. I'm Asma Khalid. I cover the White House. I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent. And I'm Mara Eliason, senior national political correspondent. And today on the show, we are less than a month away from Election Day, and nearly 2 million Americans have already voted. Ballots are being cast across the country in a presidential race that seems like it could go

either way. So let's just start there. I mean, in basically every state that we have been watching, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, and Georgia, this contest feels like a toss-up. And Domenico, you are our polling expert. Am I reading this right that this election in the polling appears to be closer than both 2016 and 2020? Yeah, I mean, it's been close. It's likely to be close. We've had feels like a million different potential shattering, you know, events, political events that have done nothing to move the needle on this. So, yeah, I mean, I think that this is the time, the last month of the election, where everyone has sort of got their heads down doing the political work.

Most people are already decided, no doubt about it. And I think it's just it's kind of, as they say, all over but the waiting. You know, one thing we should remind people, there was a huge move of the needle once. And that was after Joe Biden dropped out and Kamala Harris became the nominee. And as James Carville says, the loudest sound in American politics is the thunderous sound of a turning page. So when that happened, that was a big shift. But since then, neither of these candidates have been able to get a lead outside the margin of error. What do you attribute that to, that so many things have happened? Other than we're a deeply divided and evenly divided country?

Because we've been divided in previous election cycles, but these polls look closer even than where, say, Joe Biden was against Donald Trump four years ago. I think that it starts with Donald Trump. I mean, the movement on his favorability ratings, for example, hasn't changed very much, if at all, since he came onto the scene in 2015. You know, he's in the low 40s for favorability. There's something like half to a little bit more of half of people who have an unfavorable rating of him. And I think that largely, even though this is an election with a Democratic incumbent in the White House who's now not running, this is really an election about Donald Trump and about how people feel about him and about whether or not they want to hand over the keys to Kamala Harris or whether they want Donald Trump back in the White House. I mean, people have very, very strong opinions about the man. And, you know, I think that where we are,

the types of information that people take in, you know, we've been able to isolate ourselves in ways that we haven't really been able to isolate ourselves technologically, you know, 10, 15 years ago. And it's just different now. If you believe something, there's a link, there's a podcast, there's somebody else who's going to tell you you're right and going to reaffirm your beliefs, no matter what it is that you believe. And it's been a bigger problem on the right. You know, one thing I want to say about this, you're describing an election that's basically a referendum on Donald Trump. If that's the case, that's good for Kamala Harris, because that's what each candidate wants to do is make it a referendum on the other guy.

But what's interesting is when you ask, why hasn't Donald Trump been able to get a clear lead? After all, he's running against a historically unpopular administration. Polls show is not disciplined enough to follow the environment that we're currently in, because people are still pessimistic about the economy. And because Republicans have now spent more than a quarter billion dollars or so on advertising about immigration and pounded this issue, you know, as the main issue they're focusing on, they have a negative opinion of how the Biden administration has handled that. So those two fundamental issues are issues that side with a Republican and some Republican strategists would tell you that if there was a different person who was on the ballot at the top of the ticket for Republicans, that this might be a different race with them having a bigger advantage.

I'm going to go to that point. I mean, that's what makes this so astounding in this moment is that Republicans have advantages on some of the key issues, immigration, the economy. But that doesn't seem to be translating to the man at the top of the ticket. I want to ask you about whether or not we are seeing sentiment for Harris or Trump being understated in the current polling. And the reason I ask this is right. Like we look at 2016. It appeared that Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, was going to potentially win that election based on polling. And the reason I ask this is, right, like we look at 2016, it appeared that Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, was going to potentially win that election based on polling. The polls undercounted Trump supporters. In 2022, in the midterms, it looked like the polls perhaps

underestimated Democrats' advantage there. What are you seeing in terms of signs that one party or the other might be sort of undercounted in these current polls? This is sort of what drives me nuts about people trying to interpret horse race polls. This polling is not designed to be that specific. That's why there are margins of error. I mean, if something is a national poll that's three and a half points margin of error, that means that the range on that is seven points. It could be three and a half points lower.

It could be three and a half points higher. That's a pretty broad range. The way you're supposed to look at these polls is whether or not the middle moves over time. Do we see the needle kind of move a little bit? And clearly, there are on some issues, we've seen some degree of movement outside the margin of error. But when you have a race that's been within the margin of error for this long, and by the way, there are some really bad pollsters who are in these models too too. You know, it's not like these are all great pollsters who everybody's looking at knows exactly the same way that they're all weighted. When you have that stuff, some polls are going to undercount some people. Some polls are going to undercount other people. And when you have an election that's this close, that's all you really need to know is that it could go either way for the most part. Yeah, and when people wonder why can't either of these candidates break out and develop a lead outside the margin of error, obviously, we just mentioned a lot of Republicans think it's because Trump is so undisciplined. There's also another factor that we don't talk about enough.

Kamala Harris is black and female. And those are factors. And I don't know how you measure those very hard to get honest answers from people in a poll. But those are barriers. Yeah, I totally agree with that. I mean, I've tried to ask some elected officials what they're seeing in their states, for example, when it comes to race and gender and how much of a factor is that. And nobody really knows. They can't really measure that in a really clean and easy way. All right. Let's take a quick break. And when we get back, since we are already now in the month

of October and the polls have remained really tight, we'll talk about the chance for a so-called October surprise. This message comes from the podcast Pod Save America. It is here to help with all of the election analysis. Co-hosted by former Obama aides, the show is having honest conversations about the state of this race, and they want you to join. Subscribe on your favorite podcast platform now. And we're back. And, you know, earlier we were talking about how close the polls have remained for so much of this presidential campaign. And yet so much has happened.

I mean, you look, there's been a change at the top of the ticket on the Democratic side, two assassination attempts of the Republican nominee, historic candidacies. You're talking about the oldest major party nominee with Donald Trump, the first black woman who is also of South Asian descent in Kamala Harris. And yet the race has remained so tight. It almost makes me wonder if because there's been so much shock to the system, our senses are dulled to any surprise. What do you think, Domenico? I'm not surprised. Tell me more. And we had a hurricane, right? We have no idea how that's going to actually affect the election. There's been so many things since Donald Trump came onto the scene that I think that there is a degree of desensitization on a lot of people's parts. You know, I think that there are people who are willing to accept Donald Trump for no matter what it is that he says or does, because they're not going to vote for a Democrat. They just don't feel like that's something that they can do. And they're going to rationalize whatever it is that he does. When it comes to some of these other things, then you're talking about a slim majority

that Kamala Harris is really sort of chasing after. Remember, Joe Biden got 51% in the last election. So that's what she's chasing after to try to win back those voters to get them to vote for her, you know, in that sort of, you know, three to 5% range of people who, you know, may not necessarily swing her direction, or some of them might and some might stay home. You just don't know. So, yeah, I think that these October surprises are going to move far fewer people. These surprises in an election are not really an October surprise because you just have fewer people who are movable. And Laura, do you see things on the horizon, though, that could be potential unknowns, potential liabilities for Harris or Trump? I mean, Domenico mentioned the hurricane. A race this close, any little thing can make a difference. This is a fight for inches.

I think that Hurricane Helene can work both ways. Donald Trump has already made it into a political issue by accusing the Biden-Harris administration of withholding hurricane relief aid to Republican areas, which local Republican officials have debunked. But on the other hand, in terms of the disruption to voting in the two very important swing states of North Carolina and Georgia, very hard hit by Helene, are voters going to be more interested in cleaning out their houses or trying to figure out where their polling station that got flooded has been moved to? Are they going to want to send in an absentee ballot? And those are areas, rural counties in Georgia and North Carolina that have a lot of Trump supporters. You know, in addition to the hurricane, I'm thinking today marks a year since the October

7th attacks in Israel, in which Hamas killed around 1,200 people and seized roughly 250 hostages from inside of Israel, according to the Israeli government. In that year since, Israel's war in Gaza has killed almost 42,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza's health ministry. And I'm wondering if all of this and the potential of a wider regional war in the Middle East, which we're now seeing with what's going on in Lebanon, poses a unique challenge to Kamala Harris as the nominee, because she is also the sitting vice president. Absolutely. Any chaos in the world, even places where there are no U.S. boots on the ground, is bad for the incumbent. I mean, it's just bad. And this is a problem for her because it's

driven deep divisions inside the Democratic coalition. So yes, I think the war in the Middle East is a problem for her. I think Hurricane Helene can. So yes, I think the war in the Middle East is a problem for her. I think Hurricane Helene can cut both ways. I think we've seen some economic news that should help her, good jobs report, no dock worker strike. I mean, all of these things, there are a lot of factors, they're affecting the race at the margins, but that's how this race is going to be decided at the margins. Yeah, and I think that, you know, Gaza and the Middle East, anytime that's in focus, it's a bigger problem for Harris. Because when you look at the polling, the trust in who you trust most to handle that issue leans more toward Donald Trump. So if the focus is on abortion rights, that's a problem for Donald Trump.

If the focus is on something like immigration, crime, prices going up, the war in the Middle East. Those are issues that help Donald Trump. Mara makes the point, though, of whether or not Donald Trump can stay focused on talking about this or if he goes too far with some of his rhetoric, which is one of the other issues, character. That's a big area where people trust Harris more for her character rather than Donald Trump's character, whether or not she cares more about people. Can I push back a little bit against abortion? Here's some new data that I thought was fascinating. These abortion referendum and some of them are in battleground states like Arizona and Nevada are extremely popular. They're going to win. They're going to win by curvature of the earth. But Trump is still ahead of her by a couple points in Arizona. So, yes, these abortion rights referendum are extremely popular, but she doesn't seem like she's reaping the benefit. Well, I think that she wants to be able to raise the floor, you know, and if it helps to get out people who might not have gotten out to go vote, then, you know, if it helps marginally, then certainly they hope that that's the thing that helps them. But I agree that it's not like Kamala Harris is going to win Kansas, a place that voted in favor of abortion rights. So yes, it's not going to help in the same degree to which maybe Democrats would hope.

Before we wrap up today's show, I just want to know if either one of you have anything else that you are tracking on the horizon, any other unknowns that might rock this race? I don't know if there's any other unknowns that are going to rock this race. What I'm most curious about is post-election. I'm really curious about how Donald Trump handles whether or not he wins or loses. If Donald Trump were to lose, we saw Joe Biden this past week say that he was confident that the election is going to be handled fairly, but he's not confident there's going to be peace afterward. And I think that that is the thing that separates the United States from so many other countries, is that our elections are viewed as free and fair and transparent. And when you have one side saying

that they're not, which has become reflective in our polling, for example, that a majority, certainly of Republicans, don't think that the election is going to be fair, that really sets up for a very scary place in this country and muddies the waters that helps America's adversaries. I totally agree. Donald Trump's approach to every single election he's ever been in has been heads I win, tails you cheated. Starting, by the way, in 2016 in the Iowa caucuses where he accused Ted Cruz of stealing the race. But the race looks so tight. I mean, Donald Trump could really ultimately be the winner. Yes, he could win. Yes, of course he could. Absolutely. Yeah, there's definitely paths for him. If he wins Pennsylvania, Georgia,

and North Carolina, he's probably going to be the president. If Harris wins one of those three, then she's probably going to be the president. All right. Well, let's leave it there for today. I'm Asma Khalid. I cover the White House. I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent. I'm Mara Liason, senior national political correspondent. And thank you all, as always, for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast.