The NPR Politics Podcast - Fights, Fowl, Flagging Polls & Funding The Government

Episode Date: November 17, 2023

It was a busy week in Washington. President Biden's support from Arab-American and Muslim American voters over Israel's war with Hamas. Congress managed to avoid a shutdown, but not without members verbally — and physically — attacking each other. And, two turkeys get ready for a stay of execution. This episode: political correspondent Susan Davis, national political correspondent Don Gonyea, congressional correspondent Claudia Grisales, and senior political editor & correspondent Domenico Montanaro.The podcast is edited by Casey Morell. It is produced by Jeongyoon Han. Our executive producer is Muthoni Muturi.Unlock access to this and other bonus content by supporting The NPR Politics Podcast+. Sign up via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org. Connect:Email the show at [e-mail] the NPR Politics Podcast Facebook Group.Subscribe to the NPR Politics Newsletter.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Support for this podcast and the following message come from Autograph Collection Hotels, with over 300 independent hotels around the world, each exactly like nothing else. Autograph Collection is part of the Marriott Bonvoy portfolio of hotel brands. Find the unforgettable at AutographCollection.com. This is Dan in Alexandria, Virginia, where I'm getting ready to teach my age 35 and up parkour class. This podcast was recorded at 12.08 p.m. on Friday, November 17th. Things may not be the same when you hear it, but I'll still be spending my 50s vaulting boxes, swinging from the rafters, and climbing eight-foot walls. Okay, here's the show. Be careful up there. I'm just going to say.

Sounds like a good thing to do if you like torn ligaments. All I know is when I was in my 30s, I thought I could do the things I did in my 20s and was frustrated that I got injured. Now I just expect to get injured and celebrate when I'm not. I'm just going to watch parkour on television. Hey there, it's the NPR Politics Podcast. I'm Susan Davis. I cover politics. I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent. And I'm Don Gagne, national political correspondent. And as the war between Israel and Hamas continues, Arab American and Muslim American sentiment toward the Biden administration is changing. What was once a solid constituency for the

president seems to be faltering. And Don, you're in Michigan. It's a state with a high Arab American and Muslim American population. What are people telling you? Boy, I cannot even begin to tell you how angry people are over what's going on with the latest war. But what surprised me is the degree to which that anger is focused at the Biden administration, the president himself, a politician who has been popular with Muslim Americans, with Arab Americans. And there is this anger at U.S. foreign policy that has been on exhibit at protests and on social media, anywhere that people are talking to one another. This is the focus of conversation. And I met a guy at that rally named Nasser Beydoun. He's an Arab-American activist involved in politics. And just listen to his take on this. He poked himself in the eye. Explain.

Because he lost a constituents that voted overwhelmingly for him in Michigan. And if he wants to see reelection, he needs Michigan. And right now he doesn't have it. And I don't think he'll ever come back from it. Don, did anyone articulate to you what Biden has done exactly that they don't support or what they want him to do that he's not doing? They thought he was going to be kind of more of an honest broker in dealing with this. And as soon as the war broke out, it's no surprise that the U.S. is showing support for Israel. But what they feel is that the U.S. is ignoring those Palestinians who live in Gaza who are caught in the middle

and are suffering and dying as Israel responds to those brutal Hamas atrocities from October 7th. All of the military aid that is going to Israel, they say, is actually going to harm innocent Palestinians. And they feel as though the U.S. has abandoned the Palestinians as a result. But Domenico, we talked about this a little bit in yesterday's conversation with Mara, where from a domestic political reality for Biden, While he may be losing support among some element of Arab and Muslim American constituencies, there's also a tremendous amount of pressure from, you know, Jewish Americans, but also people who support Israel in this country, which is also not only a fairly significant constituency nationwide, but a constituency also in the state of Michigan.

It is. And just looking up some of the numbers, there was a report from Brandeis University in 2021, the American Jewish Population Project, that found that there are about 105,000 Jews in Michigan itself, 61% of whom said that they lean Democratic. So you're talking about 65,000 votes potentially that would likely go to President Biden. And then you have to balance sort of these two sides of the population. And it's really not an easy balance at all for this president, especially when you have a party that has been more of a diverse big tent party compared to, say, the Republican Party. And that makes it a really difficult thing to do. You squeeze one side and you anger the other. And if you squeeze this side and it really has a problem with the other side. And this is not an easy problem to solve for Biden at all.

And margins matter a lot, especially in a state like Michigan, which is going to be one of the most consequential states in next year's election. Don, what is the sort of size and scope of the Muslim American vote in Michigan? So the Muslim American vote, there are 206,000 registered Muslim American voters in Michigan. That does not include the also very substantial, broader Arab American vote, those voters who are Arab American, but not Muslim. But collectively, these two groups together, it's a group where President Biden got 60% of the vote in 2020. And if we can run some numbers, 200,000 Muslim American voters, even more Arab American voters, when you combine the two, Biden carried the state by 154,000 votes. Just go back four years earlier and Donald Trump carried the vote by 10,000 votes. So what it says is Michigan has this tradition of being very close. And if someone who was used to a particular group delivering a large percentage

of its votes and they don't, then it's enough to flip the state one way or another. And a huge piece of that, I mean, is when you have a disaffection with the president who's in office or the other person who's on the other side of the ballot, because it's not like people you talk to, Don, said that they're suddenly going to go vote for Donald Trump. Right. And this just could lead to their disaffection or even voting third party. And we saw in Michigan in 2016, way more people voting third party for someone like Jill Stein, who a lot of Democrats blame for Hillary Clinton losing Michigan, for example. And then way fewer

people voted third party in 2020 and led to this much larger margin for Joe Biden in 2020. Don, did voters give you any sense of where this could lead them next year, especially those who voted for Biden before? It's hard for me to conceptualize that if you are a Muslim American or an Arab American whose driving issue is Israel, you're not going to vote for Donald Trump if you're frustrated with Joe Biden's policy, because Donald Trump is to the right of Joe Biden in many ways, and certainly more of an ally of Benjamin Netanyahu. So what do they do? Where do they go? They remember Donald Trump saying on the campaign trail in late 2015, it was, he wanted to see a total ban on Muslims coming into the country.

So you're right. He's not an option for the vast majority of these voters. But I had people at that rally tell me they'll look at RFK Jr., they'll look at Cornel West, they'll look at others, or they will just stay home. And anybody who watches elections closely knows that campaigns are terrified that their voters just won't turn out. And we could have a lot of voters here leaving the top of the ticket blank. I also spoke with a guy named Abraham Ayyash. He is a state representative, a Democrat in the Michigan House rage that is now being focused into organizing around making sure that those who care about this issue turn out and vote, but they choose to leave the top of the ticket blank as a way to demonstrate that we do have political power, we do have the ability to influence an election. And if you are not going to take that into consideration, simply using platitudes while your policies perpetuate violence and harm, we will not stand by it. Don, one of the interesting things to watch is from both Joe Biden and Donald Trump is exactly how many trips they're going to

be making to Michigan over the course of the next year, which might tell us something about how in play the state is going to be. It is going to be fascinating watching that exact thing. Yes. All right, Don, thank you as always for your reporting. My pleasure. We're going to take a quick break. More in a moment. And we're back. buying a few bottles, or joining the club. You can learn more at nprwineclub.org slash podcast. Must be 21 or older to purchase. And we're back. And NPR congressional correspondent Claudia Grisales is with us.

Hey, Claudia. Hey there. She's elbowed her way into the studio. Don't get ahead of us. We'll get there, I promise. Normally, at this time of year, if we were in the podcast together, we'd be talking about how the government shutdown that is imminent and why it's happening and what it could mean. This year, a break from precedent. There will not be a government shutdown this year. How did it ultimately come together?

It was really a big question at the beginning of the week whether House Speaker Mike Johnson was going to be able to pull this off in terms of all of these, you know, different battling factions within his own conference. And as we talked about last week, he was entering with quite a bit of a honeymoon. People talked about him as coming in without baggage as compared to former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. So he came up with this very unusual idea of a two-step temporary funding measure that we refer to as a continuing resolution. This is an idea that came from the House Freedom Caucus members such as Chip Roy of Texas, Bragg to me and others, that they helped come up with this ingenious new idea of trying to fund the government temporarily. So we weren't clear if it was going to go all the way through, especially if Democrats were going to get on board. If he was going to need help from Democrats, that's where there were questions if he was going to be able to pull this off or perhaps pay the same price McCarthy did on a much faster scale. But in the end, he did it. It did pass with

majorities from both parties, Democrats and Republicans alike, even though a significant share of Republicans voted against it in the House. But now we'll see this temporary funding measure go through the beginning of the year. There's two stops along the way for a shutdown threat to come up, one in January for a share of government agencies and the remainder in February. So they need to sort out their plans by then. And so essentially, there is no shutdown this year, but there could be very early next year. Yay, can't wait. Happy New Year.

Happy New Year. Domenico, I think it's an understatement to say that the first year of the House Republican majority has been rocky. And there was a moment on the House floor this week that I think captured how frustrated many Republicans are at the year that they had. Chip Roy of Texas, who Claudia alluded to, a member of the House Freedom Caucus, who has been a big agitator for Republicans to get more conservative things done, kind of lost his mind on the floor a little bit. I want my Republican colleagues to give me one thing, one, that I can go campaign on and say we did.

One. Anybody sitting in the complex, if you want to come down to the floor and come explain to me one material, meaningful, significant thing the Republican majority has done besides, well, I guess it's not as bad as the democrats well the thing is though i think chip roy's thing is it's they don't want to do anything i mean like they they don't want to do things i mean i think this is the problem with the sort of the hard right faction is they're not like trying to get people more health care or like figure out like a child care gap or like solve any problems that exist for him.

The problem is the amount of debt, the amount of spending. So he wants to be able to go back to his district and say, look at how much we cut. Look at all the federal workers we laid off. Look at all the IRS agents who aren't going to be involved anymore. I mean, they he could go back and say that they are sort of the gum in the dam, stopping a lot of the things that, you know, that the Democrats would have done. Claudia Roy also had sort of a remarkable comment to me this week. I think he said it on CNN that Speaker Johnson's already had strike one and strike two, which is not only passing stopgap resolutions, but relying on Democratic votes to do it.

You referenced a honeymoon. Is the honeymoon already over? Is Mike Johnson or should we already be talking about how much longer can Mike Johnson survive as Speaker? I think we are talking about how much longer can he survive. Now, again, he does not have already. I mean, let's remember, some people ran for Speaker, were dominated and gone in a few hours. So Johnson, you know, he's making- He's the second longest serving Speaker this year. This year, this year. So there is a concern, especially when you have members like Roy, I spoke to him as well later in the week where they made vague references to the consequences that he's going to face

if he continues to stay on this track. And it's really just a mental jujitsu following Roy's thinking what he said on the floor when he talks about tell me one thing, tell me one thing. Well, he's one of those members that's been getting in the way of that one thing. And so it's going to be a major test for him come early next year. And I keep hearing references, you know, that we're going to give Johnson a chance. He cashed in some of those honeymoon chips this week, perhaps, but we'll see how many more are left by the beginning of next year, if they may be barreling towards divorce by then. And Congress does have a couple must-pass things before the end of the year that will test

House Republicans. I'm thinking of the supplemental spending request that the administration's asked for for funding for Ukraine, which really divides Republicans in the House, funding for Israel. I mean, more spending is never particularly popular among House Republicans. And they also have to pass a defense bill that the House and Senate are miles apart on. So he still has some very difficult pieces of legislation he's going to need to try to get through the House that realistically will need Democratic support to get Joe Biden's signature. Yeah. On top of all that, there's pressure from the Senate in terms of the directions they want to go with the defense bill, for example, that's been a bipartisan measure that's passed for many, many years, every year. And this year is going to be yet another big test.

And for Johnson, that's going to be another struggle in the coming weeks. The other thing Republicans might be doing very soon is expelling a member of Congress. George Santos of New York is likely to face another expulsion vote when they get back from Thanksgiving. Yeah, and that is going to be quite a moment in the chambers. We've seen previous attempts have not closed a deal, if you will, in terms of expelling Santos. There's this big argument about a member who has not been criminally convicted. And then when we look at Senator Menendez, in spite of the criminal allegations he's facing,

they're leaving him alone as far as we can tell at this moment. Santos is facing a much different reaction. It seems like there's a race from members from Democrats to the chairman of the House Ethics Committee to maybe more Republicans will file measures to try and get this vote as soon as possible after Thanksgiving to kick Santos out of that chamber. This is just a brass tacks politics thing, but George Santos is a reliable Republican vote in a very narrow Republican majority. So Republicans kicking out one of their own also makes life just

that much harder for Speaker Johnson. You know, this sort of black eye for Republicans, where a lot of people just are sort of associating Santos with the broader party. And, you know, Santos himself walked into a conference meeting once and declared that he's the most famous person from Congress. And that is not something that Republicans want to hear at all. talking about potentially expelling George Santos, Congress expelling him. This is a really rare move. I mean, it's only happened twice since the Civil War. The other two were James Traficant and Michael Myers, both Democrats, one from Ohio, one from Philadelphia area. Traficant had been convicted of charges related to bribery, racketeering, and tax evasion. He might have been known for more of his hair and his wild speeches on the floor and telling the speaker to beam him up, but he was expelled after those convictions. Myers was caught on tape in 1980, taking a $50,000 bribe from an undercover FBI agent who had posed as an Arab sheik during the 1970s era abscam scandal. And he actually wound up being sent back to jail when he was 79 years old for ballot stuffing in Philadelphia.

So the judge had asked him, have you learned anything over these years? Yeah, I mean, I hate to sound like the defender of George Santos in so many of these conversations, but I feel like there is a point to be made that expelling Santos before he is convicted in a court, before the Ethics Committee didn't actually even make a formal recommendation for expulsion, they're setting a new precedent and a new standard and, frankly, kind of a low standard to kick a member out of Congress, which is like, whew, you really look guilty. Yeah.

At the same time, the details they had in that expansive report about spending some of that money that he received from voters, donations, what have you. It's Sephora, the questions about OnlyFans, the trips to go gambling, the Botox. I mean, it was just an array of wild allegations. So he'll be in some company if he does get expelled and join others before him. Well, look, I mean, Travacant was certainly convicted and then kicked out. But Myers wasn't. He was caught on tape. And we know when something suddenly gets on video. Exactly. It's how it derailed Donald Trump's 2016 presidential campaign. Sorry. I can't resist. The pre-2016 era, when those kinds of things seemed to matter, they couldn't stomach it anymore. The Ethics Committee back then did recommend his expulsion, and the Ethics Committee this time didn't quite go that far and sort of tried to walk this strange line.

All right. Let's take a quick break. And when we get back, it's time for Can't Let It Go. And we're back and it's time for Can't Let It Go, the part of the show where we talk about the things from the week that we just can't stop thinking about, politics or otherwise. I'm going to go first. Go ahead. Because this was the week that I got to stand in the same room with, breathe the same air as my president has been for so many years. My president, Dwayne Johnson. I love it. Yeah. Might as well.

Yes. We were heading in this direction of celebrity anyway as president. Like, why not? Why not? A friend of mine, I was here at NPR headquarters this week, and I had a text from a good friend that said, rumor is Dwayne Johnson's in the building. And I like was like, I'm sorry, I need what? Like what's happening? I ran out of here like Lois Lane at the Daily Planet to get up to the Capitol. And there was a stakeout. Words quickly spread that Dwayne Johnson was in the Capitol. There was never an official notice. But then I got there and there was like 50 reporters just in the hallway staking out your knowledge to take pictures.

But there was so much reporter demand that they had to do a photo spray with Chuck Schumer. So I got in with all the photographers and I got in and I got to see. He did not take any questions. I was disappointed. Apparently, he's on the Capitol Hill. He's doing some lobbying about military recruitment related, blah, blah, blah, blah, military recruitment, blah, blah, blah. I got to be in the same room as Dwayne Johnson this week. Did he see you?

Did you guys lock eyes at any point? I felt like we had a moment. That's how I'm telling it. Yes. Stay with that. Yes. Look, all I'm saying, if the Taylor Swift superfan can cover Taylor Swift for Gannett, if Dwayne Johnson runs for president, I absolutely can cover the Dwayne Johnson. Did you used to watch Ballers?

I did, yeah. I liked that show. Yeah, it was a good show. He was good in that. Yeah, yeah. He's very charismatic. That to me was a turning point, like where he became not just a wrestler, you know. But an actor too. Yeah, right.

Claudia, I'm going to ask you what you can't let go of this week, but if it's not what I think it is, I don't even know what we're doing here. Yes, it is what you think it is. It is also work related. The elbow check. Yeah, elbow check. All of a sudden, Claudia's popping up on CNN. People are reading her tweets like, what is happening? I know. I mean, the tsunami was. I had no idea what would happen when I hit send on that first tweet. And I just started to see my account. I say tweet. I know it's X.

Whoa, whoa, whoa. Let me set it up for you. Let me set the scene. Our own Claudia Gerasales pounding the beat, pounding the halls of the Capitol, having a conversation with Congressman Burchett, who was one of the Republicans who voted to oust Kevin McCarthy as Speaker. And Kevin McCarthy happens to walk down the hallway. Right, right. And it just seemed like such just an innocent moment. I saw Burchett come in. I've just caught up with him more since he made that vote against McCarthy last month. And so he pulled over to the side with me. And so I didn't think much of it. I started to ask him a question about the back and forth in the conference meeting room. And he starts to answer and says, well, I think it went all right. And right after all right, he just comes, falls, you know,

like lunges towards you, lunges towards me suddenly. And so I'm looking up like, okay, that's got to be a joke. And then I realized it's McCarthy in his detail. And even he jokes initially and said, sorry, Kevin, didn't mean to elbow. And then he switched gears really quick and said, hey, Kevin, why'd you elbow me? Got any guts? And so got any guts. And this was fight day on Capitol Hill. It really was really, really fight club day on the Hill. It was tremendous.

And Burchett was mad about it. And Burchett was mad. And he said later, he told CNN that it hurt. It was shot to the kidneys. And so it's just so much I didn't register in that moment. And I'm so happy I was able to run. You remember, I sprained my ankle like a few months ago, and I've been recovering, but I just started running. So I was able to chase too. And so I think we were clocking, like, anywhere between a 10- and 12-minute mile, somewhere in there. It was. Through the halls of the Capitol?

Through a corridor, too. It was like an obstacle course, catching back up to McCarthy for Burchett to confront him. And so it was just such a surreal moment. And I didn't tweet about it until, like, I don't know, about 30 minutes or so after it happened. And I thought maybe some people would see it, maybe say a few things. But the tsunami that like came out of it. You went viral. You went viral this week. It was nuts. It was nuts. And the funniest things like, you know, bios, who is Claudia Grisales?

Who is this reporter witness? And also Seth Meyers did a segment on it and said NPR reporters are not trained to cover this kind of— We're not combat trained. That's true. Combat trained. Although I will note, we do do hostile environment training, so we do have a little bit of experience in terms of covering riots and what have you. Well, also this happened the same day as Senator Mark Wayne Mullen, a Republican from Oklahoma, tried to threaten to fight Sean O'Brien, who's the head of the Teamsters, at a Senate hearing. And he had to have Bernie Sanders, of all people, tell everybody to cool out.

Bernie Sanders, somehow he had control of that moment. You want to do it now? I'd love to do it right now. Well, stand your butt up then. You stand your butt up. Oh, hold on. Oh, stop it. Is that your solution or are you pulling?

No, no, sit down. Sit down. No, no, you're a United States senator. Act it. Oh, OK. Sit down, please. All right. Can I respond?

Hold it. Act it. Okay. Sit down, please. All right. Can I respond? Hold it. Hold it. Then there was another hearing moment the same day where the chairman, James Comer, a Republican from Kentucky, called a Democrat a smurf. You know, the thing about Mark Wayne Mullen that I thought was so weird is he then did like this like kind of victory lap on conservative media. And one of the podcasts he did in Oklahoma, and it was videotaped also, he said that like, you know, he's a former MMA fighter. And he was like, I'm not beyond,

I'm not above biting. And it even caught the like podcast host by surprise. He's like, yeah, he's like, I'll bite. And he goes, I don't even care where I bite. It was like, what is he? Where are we going? What is this? What is happening? But honestly, we all were Bernie Sanders in that moment when he was like, you are a United States senator. Sit down. Sit down. You're a United States senator.

You know? Domenico, what about you? What can't you let go of? It's that time of year, friends. And Joe Biden is one year older on Monday. He will be 81, the oldest president in U.S. history. But some things apparently never change in the White House, and that includes the strange tradition of pardoning turkeys. Oh, I forgot about your annual rant about the turkeys.

Oh, my gosh. I did, too. You know, you report on some things, and you think your reporting will change things. And I just think this tradition is really weird. It makes no sense. Except then you realize it does make sense. And it's because, you know, even though this is a turkey lobby event, like that is sanctioned by the White House, which I find very strange. That it and this is a group.

Remember, this is a little dark. This is a group that encourages people to eat more turkey, right? Not to pardon turkeys, but to murder them, right? To kill turkeys so we eat them, which is fine. I eat turkey. I cook the turkey. I have no problem with that, right? But they're trying to be something they're not, right?

They know death doesn't sell. So they have to improve their favorability ratings by saying, oh, we're so nice and kind. We're going to let this turkey live. This one. This one. Right. But eat the rest of them. Look, this whole like PR stunt sort of started with JFK in 1963 by kind of accident.

This thing was a massive turkey and it had a sign around its neck that said, good eating, Mr. President. Right. They were there to give the bird to the president, much more honest. They've been doing that since the 40s, where the turkey lobby would give presidents turkeys to eat. And JFK, I think, realized this isn't a good look. And he was like, we'll just let this one grow. And then sporadically through the years, it became this thing. And I still just don't understand it. And now it's expanding. I mean, yeah. I mean, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer brought this turkey pardon to Michigan in 2022, where she pardoned Mitch E. Gander, the turkey. A small town in East Texas just had their

turkey pardon for the first time, sponsored by the library. And they pardoned a poor turkey named Dolly Pardon. Pardon. I just, because apparently Dolly Pardon is a big literacy advocate, but I don't think the turkey can read. I love that your turkey rant has become to our podcast what Susan Stamberg's cranberry sauce recipe is to NPR radio listeners. Oh, good. We need to expand this.

I do work for NPR. I had forgot about your turkey rant until you brought it up. And I'm grateful. I am grateful. I am grateful, too. For the rant. Yes. Well, I don't know how anybody else feels about it, but it's a strange, weird tradition.

All right. And before we go, I'd like to wish all of our listeners and both of you a very happy Thanksgiving. Thank you. Same to you. Especially, you know, everyone's going to be eating the turkeys that didn't make it. They didn't get the pardons. Enjoy your turkeys. Good. Your unpardoned turkey.

Before you go, if you listen to this podcast, you are well aware of the fact that former President Donald Trump is facing a lot of legal jeopardy. If you want a deeper dive into all of it, check out the latest NPR podcast, Trump's Trials. Our own Domenico Montanaro will be providing political analysis, and it's hosted by former NPR podcast host Scott Detrow, and it's out every Saturday. Our executive producer is Mathoni Maturi. Casey Morrell edits the podcast, and Jung-Yoon Han produces it. Thanks to Krishna of Calamer and Lexi Schipital. I'm Susan Davis. I cover politics. I'm Claudia Gattisadis. I cover Congress. And I'm Domenico Montan politics. I'm Claudia Grisales. I cover Congress.

And I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent. And thanks for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast.