The NPR Politics Podcast - Get Ready To Be Badgered: Wisconsin Is A Presidential Battleground

Episode Date: August 25, 2023

Wisconsin's diverse geography and intense state politics have kept it a closely-fought presidential battleground for years — but abortion politics and the GOP's slipping grasp on the state's evolving suburbs might be changing things.And a family's journey to find care for their daughter — from Afghanistan to Mexico and then across the U.S. southern border — exposes the complicated state of affairs for Afghan immigrants and other migrants in the United States.This episode: White House reporter Deepa Shivaram, senior political editor and correspondent Ron Elving, WUWM reporter Maayan Silver, and Pentagon correspondent Tom Bowman.The podcast is produced by Elena Moore and Casey Morell. Our editor is Eric McDaniel. Our executive producer is Muthoni Muturi. Unlock access to this and other bonus content by supporting The NPR Politics Podcast+. Sign up via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org. Connect:Email the show at [e-mail] the NPR Politics Podcast Facebook Group.Subscribe to the NPR Politics Newsletter.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Hi, this is Eleanor and Jason from Portland, Oregon. It's my 50th birthday today. Happy birthday. Thank you, sweetie. This podcast was recorded at 1208 p.m. on Friday, August 25th, 2023. Things may have changed by the time you hear it, but we'll still be celebrating. I'm 50, five decades, Half a century. Oof. Half a century. That's a big birthday. Oof, indeed. Yeah, seriously. Hey there, it's the NPR Politics Podcast. I'm Deepa Shivaram. I cover the White House. And I'm Ron Elving, Editor-Correspondent.

And WUWM's Mayan Silver is here. Hey. Hey there. So, Mayan, you are based in Wisconsin, which is, of course, getting a lot of attention this week. That is where this week's Republican presidential primary debate was held. And you reported a story, along with our colleague Kelsey Snell, about the state's changing politics. There's a lot of power sharing in the state right now. Races in Wisconsin tend to be incredibly close, as of power sharing in the state right now. Races in Wisconsin

tend to be incredibly close, as we've seen in the last several years. Can you walk us through the recent history here in presidential politics in Wisconsin? Right. So, you know, when we're really talking about this, four of the last six presidential races were decided by less than a single percentage point here in Wisconsin. And so Donald Trump won the state in 2016 by about 20,000 votes. And then Biden, he lost the state to Biden by about 23,000 votes in 2020. So it's just a very narrow shift that tipped the state one way or the other. You know, I talked to Ben Wickler for that story. He's the chair of the Wisconsin Democrats. He said, even when there's a bazillion things going on that you think must fundamentally reshape the political landscape, both sides start at about 48%.

So it's really, really close in Wisconsin. And that's evidenced, you know, the state's two U.S. senators are of opposing parties. The legislature is Republican-led while the governor is a Democrat. Right. And these presidential races are really tight. Yeah, it's one of those states that we're always keeping an eye on. Ron, how does this state usually factor in in the electoral college math? For quite a while, it was part of what was being called the blue wall for Democrats around the Great Lakes, everything from New York West across the Middle West into, well, Minnesota was the western end, all five Great Lakes touching one of those states in the Great Lakes Wall. Well, that broke up in 2016. And it's actually

fairly unusual for Indiana to be part of it, but Ohio was part of it for a while. And Barack Obama managed to do it, even carrying Indiana once. And so it was a big, big shock to upper Midwestern Democrats when Donald Trump took Pennsylvania and Michigan and Wisconsin in 2016. They're still in shock. And it was very close in all three of those states again in 2020. And I think a lot of people expect it to be very close in all three again in 2024. It could hold the key. I know Georgia matters, Arizona matters, other states matter, but it could hold the key to whether or not Donald Trump gets another term. Yes, definitely. And you see that attention already with a number of folks, including President Biden himself, I might add, starting to spend more time there in those states

and in Wisconsin in particular. But let's zoom out here for a second. Can you tell me what leads to these competitive races? Talk to me about the politics there and what people are focusing on. So, Deepa, it's kind of the identity of the state. Some really call it a tale of two states with this really big rural-urban divide. But there's also some shifting demographics in the suburbs. You know, Wisconsin is a little older, a little whiter, a little less educated than a lot of other states. And the rural areas have trended deep red since 2016. But we've got, you know, major urban areas, Milwaukee and Madison, they're diversifying. Milwaukee is a

majority people of color. It's evolving, becoming more cosmopolitan. Top Chef is filming in Wisconsin in Milwaukee right now. So the food landscape is pretty kicking. So there's this kind of divide. And then, you know, of course, you've got the suburbs thrown in that have their own identity. Right, right. And that, yes, noted. Top Chef, that is a big deal. And let's also factor in here, you know, as the politics of the state appear to be changing, something that you've reported on is the state Supreme Court race that happened last year. Why was that so significant? Right. So, you know, we talked about how close the state is.

Things are so narrowly divided in these elections. But the state Supreme Court race this year was an 11 point win for Democrats. And that was, you know, there were a bunch of factors that went into that. There's the trend of the suburbs. The suburbs of Milwaukee have historically been much more Republican. They're turning Democratic. And, you know, that's because it's kind of a reaction to Donald Trump, but it also a broader movement because the suburbs are getting more diverse. And also, you know, there's a lot of women, suburban women, more educated people, and abortion is really a big issue. That was a huge issue in that race. And it continues to be a big issue in Wisconsin. And that was, by the way, the second Supreme Court race in a row that the Democrats

had managed to win. And that tipped the court to four to three for the Democrats, which probably means that Wisconsin's current, I mean this seriously, 1849 abortion law will be overturned. And also that the extraordinary, extreme gerrymandering of the Wisconsin state legislature will probably be addressed as well. Right. But let's zoom out again even further and kind of pivot to the Senate races here. I mean, Democrats just lost a big race in the state last year. So there is still some of this push and pull, right? Oh, yes. I mean, Ron Johnson won that race. I mean, it was a good year for incumbents, the 2022 midterms. But essentially,

you know, Wisconsin is so narrowly divided. And the conservative message does play well in many parts of Wisconsin. I just attended a debate watch party and, you know, the pocketbook issues might really bring independence to the GOP, inflation. You know, people were talking about that and every vote counts in Wisconsin. The Democratic nominee in that Senate race was Mandela Barnes, the state lieutenant governor, and he is African-American. He's from Milwaukee. And the big disappointment for Democrats in failing to get Ron Johnson is they came very close, but they needed more votes in Milwaukee, not just Milwaukee County, not just the urban areas, but specifically in Milwaukee. And that vote was disappointing for them and shocking because, after all, Mandela Barnes was from Milwaukee. And no one really knows exactly why.

There were efforts made, of course, to discourage voting on the part of African Americans, as has been typical. But there was also a sense, I think, among many people in Wisconsin that the crime issue was hurting Democrats, particularly in communities of color, because the people there were really hurting from criminal activity that they felt was not being properly addressed. And they didn't see Mandela Barnes as sufficiently committed to addressing that issue. Yeah. And as we talk about, you know, elections coming up next year, that issue of turnout,

particularly when it comes to communities of color, black voters, we're only going to be talking about that so much more. All right. WUWM's Mayan Silver, I am sure we will be talking to you so much more when we're in town for the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee next summer. We cannot wait for that. Thank you so much for joining us. Thank you. All right. We're going to take a quick break and we'll be back in a second.

And we are back with NPR's Pentagon correspondent, Tom Bowman. Hi, Tom. Hey, how are you? Good, good. Glad it's Friday. I want to turn to you here because you have an incredible story out about an Afghan family with a disabled child. They traveled a long way to get to the United States. You met them for this story in Alexandria, Virginia, just outside of D.C. Tell me about this family. Well, the head of the family is Shafi Amani. He worked as a contractor in Afghanistan building Afghan army bases. And he didn't leave when that 80,000 Afghans left in that military airlift by the U.S. and came to the United States, he thought things would be okay. It turns out they weren't. So he decided to leave Afghanistan,

took a back road into Pakistan. That's where his daughter, two-year-old daughter Yusra, had a high fever of 106, and then she had what amounted to a stroke. And he couldn't get much medicine in Pakistan, so he made a decision to go to Mexico. He got a tourist visa, ended up in Mexico City, couldn't get really much care for her there. Then he made the decision, I'm going to go over the wall at Mexicali into the United States. He paid 200 bucks per person for his wife, daughter, and himself, and they hoisted him over the wall at Mexicali into Calexico, California. And I interviewed Shafi Amani about his decision to come into the United States, and it's really a harrowing tale.

He said it was one of the most difficult decisions he ever had to make in his life. Let's listen to his story. In the wall, they put something like a rope. And after that, they told us, come first, my wife. So they pulled your wife first? Yeah, first she, after that, me and my daughter. You held on to your daughter? Yeah. And that wall, by the way, was 30 feet high. He was pulled over the wall, landed on the other side. There he was picked up by border patrol and made his way to Washington, D.C., where the folks at Children's National Medical Center

helped out Yusra. And she's going to be okay, but she's going to take a lot of care for years. I'm just imagining this journey, literally crossing oceans here with a child who is sick and in need of care. And going over the border wall. Going over the border wall. 30-foot border wall, holding his daughter while he's hoisted over the wall. And the language barrier here. I mean, these people have had such an extraordinary challenge to take care of their daughter. And it's just an amazing journey that you've

documented here. But I do want to kind of go back to the point that you made earlier. This family didn't leave Afghanistan originally. And we know that there's a lot of different mindsets and opinions about U.S. troops that were in Afghanistan, about the Taliban. What was Shafi's mindset when he was thinking about all of this when the U.S. left Afghanistan two years ago? Well, he was a bit worried about going to the airport and part of that huge crowd that was taking off. And also, he was pretty angry at the United States for, he said, just walking away from Afghanistan, leaving us. And he said, the Taliban said, hey, don't worry, just stay here in Afghanistan. You'll be okay. But then he worried that, you know, they froze

all the bank accounts. He was worried they would go through his business records and find out he worked for the Afghan government. That's why he decided to leave. But again, he didn't want to go to the United States. He was still angry with the United States. He thought he'd be okay in Mexico, but he got no care in Mexico. He had to pay his own way for care. They told him he had to learn Spanish. And he just said, this is not the place for me. I'm going to have to go to the United States. You have told a remarkable human story here. And that is what is most important, of course. But there is also, as we've already noted, there's a political overlay in all of this because the Biden administration did, in fact, pull out of Afghanistan. But that did not happen in a vacuum

and it was not the first, shall we say, commitment that the U.S. had made to pull out. Afghanistan, but that did not happen in a vacuum and it was not the first, shall we say, commitment that the U.S. had made to pull out. We heard a little bit of reference to this in the Republican debate in Milwaukee on Wednesday night, and surely we are going to hear far, far more if Donald Trump is the nominee and Biden is the nominee. We can expect them to go toe-to-toe on this. It was a mess two years ago. It is a mess today. But isn't there a certain amount of blame to go around here with respect to that whole business? No, that's right. And it's important to note that it was a Trump administration that signed the deal with the Taliban. Initially, they wanted the agreement with the Taliban signed by the Trump administration, the plan was to pull out all U.S.

troops in May. And as we know, we're coming up on the second anniversary. The troops all pulled out by the end of August. And also the Trump administration also wanted to pull all U.S. troops out on January 15th. They went to the Pentagon and the Pentagon basically said, you know, we just can't do this that quickly. And to your point, Tom, I mean, this is something that keeps coming up in White House briefings. This is something I'm sure that will keep coming up in the coming months, especially headed into an election year. But it is important, of course, that we keep reporting on these families and the stories of these refugees and folks who are coming here with a lot of, looking for a lot of help. I'm curious, you caught up with them in Alexandria. Since their daughter has been able to get care here,

what have their lives been like? Well, basically, they're depending on charity from church groups. One of the doctors, Dr. Karen Smith at the Children's National Medical Center is helping them out. You know, her friends are bringing over, let's say, linens and pots and pans and so forth to help them out. But he's depending on charity. The problem is since he came here illegally, he can't get a work permit. He can't get Medicaid. And he has applied for asylum. But the backlog in asylum cases, there are tens of thousands of asylum cases, not only from Afghanistan, but from all over the world, from Venezuela, from Colombia.

From Ukraine. From Ukraine, yeah. And there are some Ukrainians, by the way, starting to come over the border from Mexico. So it's a huge problem. So you're talking the volume here of people coming in seeking asylum at the time when the Trump administration cut back on the State Department. So they have fewer people processing these asylum claims. It's going to take many months, well into next year, before he can get his asylum case heard. Right. And just to point out the difference here, I mean, for folks who are coming over the border seeking asylum, coming to the United States that way versus the

folks who are a part of that 80,000 number, like you mentioned, who were airlifted out of Kabul, their aid looks differently in this country. Absolutely. It was much different. They got three months assistance from the U.S. government. They got Medicaid. They also got a work permit. And it was supposed to run out this summer. But the Biden administration extended it for another two years. And the reason they had to extend it is because there's something in Congress called the Afghan Adjustment Act, which would give these Afghan refugees, these 80,000, a fast track to a green card and onto citizenship. It's stuck in Congress, and there's no sense that that's going to be resolved anytime soon. And it's important to point out, this is something the United States did in the 1970s with the Vietnamese coming into the United States. They got that fast track to a green card, but they're trying to do it again for the Afghans.

But again, the politics of this, it's just stuck. We're going to take another quick break. And when we get back, it's time for Can't Let It Go. And we're back. And it's time to end the show like we do every week with Can't Let It Go, where we talk about things we cannot stop thinking about, politics or otherwise. Ron, let's start with you. It's sports. It's football. Tomorrow is the first day of the college football season. And, you know, this is going to sound like traditional person complaining that the world is changing. But I think there's something to be said about the conflict that are ripping college football

apart right at this particular moment, at least at the major college level. For those who might not be aware, the Pacific 12 Conference, which has a hundred-year-old history, is basically breaking completely apart. Four teams have committed to join the Big Ten, which many of you know was already the Big 14. So it's now going to be the Big 18, if that works for you. And that's not the Big Ten that people grew up with in the Midwest when it was a regional conference. All of these were regional-based conferences. And there was a certain amount of college brouhaha and just foolishness,

boula boula associated with all this, but also a fair amount of sentimentality and state loyalty. And now, of course, the rule of money coming from television has gone from the millions to the tens of millions into the billions of dollars for conferences as a whole. And it just doesn't make sense for some of these schools to stay in a conference that can't pay them as much as another conference can. So we get a bidding war just like in baseball and football for the top talent. And Ron, I'd just like to say that one of those teams is the University of Oregon, where my son went. So go Ducks. I think they've already gone. No, actually, all these changes really take place in the 2024 season.

But this is what everybody's talking about as the 2023 season gets underway. Tom, what else can't you let go of? Well, one thing I can't let go of is this charming story out of Russia. And who would have thought there'd be a charming story out of Russia after Kragosian was killed in that air crash? And, of course, the ongoing attacks Russia is inflicting on Ukraine. But Norway is rebuilding a reindeer fence along its border with Russia in the Arctic, because reindeer, about 42 of them, have crossed into Russia. They're eating the Russian fields, and the Russians are hitting them up for about $4,700 per animal. So again, an interesting charming story.

Yo, these are messy reindeer. They need to get it in order. That's dangerous. Well, they have to get better food on the Norway side of the border. Do we know how... That's a hefty project. Yeah. That's a lot of money for eating grass.

It is, yes. Wow. Bold of them. Maybe they're just beefing up for the holiday season. This is interesting. Well, that would, of course, never happen in Sweden. Deepa, what can you not let go of this week? The thing that I cannot let go of is India became the first country this week to land on the south side, the south pole of the moon. They had a spacecraft called Chandrayaan.

They are the fourth country after the Russia, the U.S., and China to land on the moon. And there's a couple of things that I found really interesting that I could not let go about this mission. One, there was a number of women who were involved in this project. And two, which is also really cool, women in STEM, we love to see it. Two was the cost. They projected that it would only cost $75 million to send this spacecraft to the moon. And I saw a tweet, and this is what I was fact-checking. It costs less than the budget to make Interstellar, the movie. They landed this spacecraft on the moon with a very small budget

when we think about what it takes to do something like that. So that was very interesting. Can't let it go. Shout out to my dad who was watching the live stream of that at home this week. It was very exciting and very cool to explore a totally different side of the moon than anyone has ever seen before. And what's interesting, this came right after the Russian aircraft crashed. Well, crashed.

What the Russians say? It collided with the moon. So the moon was really at fault here. Right, of course. How dare it be in the way? Yeah, big news in space travel and space things this week. So definitely something I could not let go. All right, that's a wrap for today.

Our executive producer is Matoni Maturi. Our editor is Eric McDaniel. Our producers are Alina Moore and Casey Morrell. Thanks to Christian Depp-Calamore and Lexi Schipittel. I'm Deepa Shivaram. I cover the White House. I'm Tom Bowman. I cover the Pentagon.

And I'm Ron Elving, editor-correspondent. Thank you for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast.