The NPR Politics Podcast - Has Russian Infighting Weakened Vladimir Putin?

Episode Date: June 28, 2023

After a Russian mercenary leader's forces marched toward Moscow Saturday over frustrations with Putin's top brass, the White House made clear the U.S. was not involved. The U.S. is set to provide more military aid to Ukraine as the war drags on.This episode: White House correspondent Tamara Keith, White House correspondent Franco Ordoñez, and national security correspondent Greg Myre.The podcast is produced by Elena Moore and Casey Morell. Our editor is Eric McDaniel. Our executive producer is Muthoni Muturi. Unlock access to this and other bonus content by supporting The NPR Politics Podcast+. Sign up via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org. Connect:Email the show at [e-mail] the NPR Politics Podcast Facebook Group.Subscribe to the NPR Politics Newsletter.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Hi, this is Austin from Orlando, Florida. Every summer I take some time to explore our national parks and go on a few hikes. Right now I'm talking to you from the top of Ryan Mountain in Joshua Tree National Park. This podcast was recorded at 12.09 p.m. on Wednesday, the 28th of June. Things may have changed since then, but me, I'll be preparing for my next adventure. All right, here's today's show. I do love all the timestamps from Mountain Talks. I hope he sends some pictures.

Yeah, seriously. Let's have pictures. Hey there, it's the NPR Politics Podcast. I'm Tamara Keith. I cover the White House. I'm Frank Ordonez. I also cover the White House. And I'm Greg Myrie in Kiev, Ukraine. And the world is still

trying to figure out exactly what happened in Russia over the weekend and what it means for the country's leader, Vladimir Putin. What we do know is that Yevgeny Progozhin, who leads a mercenary fighting force known as the Wagner Group, and that force has been a big part of Russia's efforts in Ukraine, turned his ire on Russia's leadership and sent his troops into Russia, driving towards Moscow before reaching a deal and stopping the advance. It was this stunning spectacle of instability in Russia. And before we get into the U.S. political reaction, Greg, you were there in Ukraine watching this unfold next door. So tell us what happened. Right. So yeah, just a quick bit of background, Tam. Evgeny Progozhin, this mercenary leader,

I mean, he's been around for years. His group has been in the Middle East and Africa, and it's played an increasingly powerful role in Russia's war in Ukraine. In fact, it sort of led the fight in the eastern part of the country in the past several months. But Prokofiev was very much at odds with the Russian military leadership. He said they weren't giving him enough weapons. They were starving him of ammunition. And he's very prominent and good on social media. So he kept making these increasingly sharp criticisms of Russian military leaders. And this tension just kept growing and growing.

So he had a lot of beef, but then he took an action that, at least from the outside, looked like he was trying to invade Moscow or something. So what was he doing? What was he trying to accomplish? Did he do it? Yeah. So this friction just exploded into open rebellion over the weekend. He put out another sort of incendiary video criticizing the Russian defense minister and the head of the army. And then he took over a key military headquarters in southern Russia. It's actually just outside Ukraine, and it's really sort of been the headquarters for the Russian war effort there. And then on top of that, he sent his fighters rumbling down the highway toward Moscow.

Now, that's a 600-mile trip. And on Saturday, they traveled nearly 500 miles, and nobody was really stopping them. Eventually, they came under fire from the Russian Air Force and the mercenaries shot down a half dozen Russian Air Force planes and helicopters. But then suddenly, Progozhin called the whole thing off, told his forces to make a U-turn, ordered them back to base, and then Progozhin agreed to go into exile in Belarus. So all of this utterly bizarre, to say the least. So, Franco, here in the U.S., we were on duty this weekend trying to get comment out of the White House, trying to figure out what the U.S. thought of this. And they were very quiet. Yeah, it was really crazy. It's all this, you know, as Greg's just pointing out, this bizarre actions that were happening, all of our jaws are completely dropped. Biden was pretty quiet about it. He didn't say anything, actually, until after the Wagner Groups turned around. It wasn't until Monday that Biden finally addressed it. And he said pretty clearly that he just didn't want to give Putin

any excuse to try to blame the West, to blame the United States, to blame NATO allies, just didn't want anyone to think that the United States was meddling into it. You know, and I also spoke with some other former advisors who told me that he also probably wanted to send a message to Putin that he wasn't going to exploit this. I mean, tensions are so high right now that there is some fear of some kind of misunderstanding that this fraught situation could get even worse if there is a misunderstanding and kind of spiral out of control. And, you know, when there's instability in a place like Russia, that's always a concern, especially when you have a country that's sitting on such a large nuclear arsenal.

Yeah, I mean, there's this adage that the enemy of my enemy is my friend. But in this case, that seemed not to be true. And it was very clear that the White House, that G7 and NATO leaders, all of these leaders around the world who were working the phones, talking to each other over the weekend, they were worried about instability. The reason that instability is such a big concern around the world when it has to do with Russia is it has to do with the nuclear weapons. We're talking thousands and thousands of nuclear weapons, the biggest nuclear arsenal in the world. And I do want to make clear that when the White House is asked about this question, they emphasize that there is no indication that anything has changed in terms of Russia's posture, of the possibility of Putin using those weapons. That is not the case. But I was speaking with Sam Cherub, who advised former President Barack Obama,

and he says the immediate concern is not so much about the misuse of those weapons, but about who will have control over those weapons. And, you know, be careful what you wish for. This episode served as a reminder that, yes, everyone can get behind the objective of like weakening the Russian war machine, but there's a risk of inadvertently pushing it too far. You know, and he's saying, you know, Biden talked about how he directed his

team to kind of prepare for all these different scenarios, you know, and Prokofiev has been accused of some pretty awful stuff. So his march to Moscow from the United States standpoint raises a lot of questions about, well, who would you actually rather have in control of those weapons? Is it Prigozhin? Is it Putin? I mean, for some folks, Putin may be a little bit more palatable. Greg, I want to ask about Prokosian and what he's up to now, because I can't imagine doing something like this that embarrasses at the least Vladimir Putin on the international stage. I can't imagine that that goes over particularly well. What happens with Prokosian now and all of his fighters who were, you know, on the road to Moscow. Yeah, well, he's lived to see another day, which was not a sure thing on Saturday when the rebellion was underway. The president of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, and he's a close ally of Vladimir Putin,

he says that Progozhin has arrived as planned, and he said that Progozhin and his men could have some land there, but this is not meant to be a military base. It's not clear how many of Progozhin's men will follow him there. In Russia, President Vladimir Putin says Wagner fighters won't be punished and they can stay in Russia and join the Russian army. So it seems like Wagner will be disbanded. But again, it's a little fuzzy at the moment. The immediate crisis has passed. But all of this suggests a lot of unfinished business and that there's a lot more to come. And many analysts really say Putin has been weakened. His authority has been challenged.

And this could undermine him both politically at home and militarily in Ukraine. So we're all watching very closely. Yeah, we will be right back after a quick break to talk about what this might mean for the war in Ukraine. And we're back. And Greg, you are in Ukraine. The Wagner Group had been a big part of the Russian military effort in Ukraine, as we talked about. So what does this falling out mean for Russia's war effort in Ukraine? And what does it mean for Ukraine's defense? Well, Tam, today I sat down with a very senior Ukrainian general. His name is General Viktor Nazarov. And he said he thinks that if the Wagner Group stops fighting in Ukraine, it probably doesn't mean a whole lot in the short

term. The Wagner Group was very much seen as an offensive force, and they captured the town of Bakhmut, where the heaviest fighting took place in the war over months and months. That was last month. But since then, the Wagner Group sort of retreated, handed that over to the Russian military. Progozhin himself said they needed a little time to regroup, and they were not expected to play a big role in the sort of defensive effort that Russia is undergoing right now. Now, General Nazarov said that this Ukrainian offensive, now about three weeks old, is progressing. Ukrainians have taken a few villages, advanced a few miles, but he acknowledged quite freely that it is very slow going and it's a very tough slog. The Russians are very well

prepared with minefields, trenches, heavy artillery. They had months to set this up. Not a lot of element of surprise here. The Ukrainian goal is to reach the country's southeast coast. That would cut the Russian forces in two. It would leave one Russian force in the east, one in the south with the Ukrainians in between. And therefore, the Russians would be much more vulnerable. But the Ukrainians are still 60 miles away from the coast with multiple layers of Russian defenders waiting for them. Yeah. And I'll just add, you know, that, you know, strong defense that the Russians have been putting up is something that the White House has kind of

pointed to when kind of pushing back on, you know, some of this speculation that, you know, Putin's demise is around the corner because Putin obviously still controls a very strong army that's fighting very vigorously. Right. And Greg, you were talking about it, but this is the season where Ukraine was supposed to be leading this big counteroffensive. There were very high expectations because they've gotten all of these weapons from the West, from NATO members, from the U.S. and its allies. And as you say, it maybe hasn't been going as quickly or as easily as perhaps the outside expectation. Yeah, I think that's fair to say. The Ukrainians are really

trying to manage expectations. They're saying, look, this is not going to be easy. It's going to take weeks. It's going to take months. We have all this equipment. I've seen a lot of it just in and around at military installations in the Kiev area in recent days. The general I spoke with also noted, though, Ukraine's regular army was doing the bulk of the fighting in the early months of the war. They've lost a lot of people, killed or injured. Now you're dealing with new recruits.

Many have received training in Europe and NATO countries, but it's a much younger force. That's true on the Russian side as well. So there are a lot of factors in play here, but don't expect it to be easy. The Ukrainians say it'll be judged by how it ends, not that it has to be a movie that has to hit hit marks every every day or every week as to how far they advance. Franco, does what happened in Russia change the political dynamic at all in the U.S. around support for Ukraine, especially in this critical moment for Ukraine? I mean, the U.S., I mean, certainly the White House is saying that it's maintaining the same support as before. And to make its point, you know, officials were, you know, talking about the new military package that was just introduced this week, $500 million in military aid. It's another example of how they're saying

this support is going to continue. I will note, though, that, I mean, I think you can bet that this is going to be a very big discussion at the NATO summit next month in Lithuania. And there's going to be questions and a lot of chatter around that table with all the leaders about what outcomes do they really want in Russia if, for example, Ukraine does win the war? What does the U.S. and allies expect from Russia if Ukraine wins the war? What do they want that to look like? Greg, I do want to ask you, as we close out this conversation, what this incident over the weekend has done for the U.S. perception of Putin and his influence in the region. Has it changed anything? Is he still the most potent adversary? I think the answer to that is probably yes, but he's been in power more than two decades, and many see this episode as the most direct challenge to his rule in that time. He's somebody who always wants to project this image of power, and this episode undercut that image as a strong, decisive leader in full control of events.

He's survived for now, still very much in power, but we see his problems mounting. We see some instability at home, a war in Ukraine that's not going well, and an economy that looks increasingly shaky. All right, well, we are going to leave it there for today, but we are still watching. I'm Tamara Keith. I cover the White House. I'm Frank Ordonez. I also cover the White House. And I'm Greg Myrie, and I cover national security. And thank you for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast.