The NPR Politics Podcast - House Republicans Have Passed a Debt Limit Bill. Now What?

Episode Date: April 27, 2023

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy was able to narrowly pass a bill to temporarily raise the debt limit. But it was paired with spending cuts and policy changes to social programs that mean it's dead on arrival in the Democratic-held Senate. So what's next in the ongoing stalemate?This episode: political correspondent Susan Davis, congressional correspondent Deirdre Walsh, and senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro.This episode of the podcast was produced by Elena Moore. It was edited by Lexie Schapitl and Eric McDaniel. Our executive producer is Muthoni Muturi. Unlock access to this and other bonus content by supporting The NPR Politics Podcast+. Sign up via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org. Connect:Email the show at [e-mail] the NPR Politics Podcast Facebook Group.Subscribe to the NPR Politics Newsletter.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Hey, this is Anthony at the Rink at Rockefeller Center. Back in November, I personally opened the gate to let in the first skaters of the season. And now I'm starting my shift to welcoming the last. It was a joy to be here all year. And of course, if anyone at the podcast wants to come and roller skate here in the summer, it's definitely on me. I'm looking forward to seeing you guys there. This podcast was recorded at 1229 p.m. on Thursday, April 27th.

Things may have changed by the time you hear this. All right. Here's the show. Maybe we should take them up on that. Let's do it. That sounds fun. I don't know. Deirdre and Sue, you both seem like people who could really kick some butt in roller derby or something. I loved roller skating as a kid. I haven't had

them on my feet in a long time. But with you guys, I'd be willing to make the trip. I did the whole rollerblading thing in New York for a while. And you know, it ended with some scrapes and bruises sometimes, but it was fun. I'm a little rusty, but respectable. Hey there, it's the NPR Politics Podcast. I'm Susan Davis. I cover politics. I'm Deirdre Walsh. I cover Congress. And I'm a little rusty, but respectable. Hey there, it's the NPR Politics Podcast. I'm Susan Davis. I cover politics. I'm Deirdre Walsh. I cover Congress. And I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent. House Republicans voted last night to raise the debt limit in exchange for some spending cuts and a series of Republican policy changes to social programs. The bill is immediately dead on arrival in the Democratic-held Senate, but House Speaker

Kevin McCarthy hopes this proposal could provoke President Biden to the negotiating table. Deirdre, let's start with this. This was a pretty high-stakes vote for the speaker himself. It was. I mean, other than the five days and 15 ballots to get elected speaker, this vote on a bill that pretty much everyone says isn't going anywhere was the most important vote that Speaker McCarthy has had in his tenure so far. We say that the bill, obviously, the intention is to raise the debt limit, but Republicans have put in a number of priorities, at least for their party. What are the most important provisions in this bill that people should know about? So it raises the country's borrowing authority by one and a half trillion dollars or through March of 2024. It rolls back spending levels to those that were in place two

years ago. But then it really targets a bunch of President Biden's policies. It repeals his student loan forgiveness program, which is still tied up in the courts, claws back all the unspent COVID relief money. It also adds new work requirements for able-bodied adults without children who get federal assistance like food stamps or Medicaid. The Republican bill also rolls back a bunch of the provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act, which is basically President Biden's signature legislative accomplishment. These are things like energy programs, climate change programs, and Republicans targeted them to basically get rid of them. And some of the other things in that bill, like boosting money for the Internal Revenue Service. This is not how budget negotiations usually used to happen. I mean, debt ceilings were sort of like, you know, just passed almost through unanimous consent.

It was just kind of happened until the Tea Party came along. And it's sort of like budget negotiation in reverse. It's supposed to happen beforehand and then you raise the debt limit if that's what you need to have done. But Republicans see this as like really their only leverage over, you know, Washington that was for the last couple of years controlled by Democrats. Also, Domenico, these are policies that obviously Republicans support. They would, in some regards, save some money. But if the big picture question is about the debt and deficit of the United States of America, this isn't necessarily a package that really speaks to

that underlying issue. How much time do we have? About four minutes. Yeah. I mean, honestly, it's one of the pet peeves for a lot of us who've covered this for a long time. Medicare and Social Security are the two things that take up the biggest portion of the budget. More than 50 percent of the budget and of the debt come from those two programs. And the reason why Medicare is so expensive is because older people use a lot of health care. I'm getting older. I know the injuries and how they feel. And I'm going to the doctor more.

So I'm lucky I'm still insured at this point. But that's what happens. And the government is paying for people over 65 to go get health care. And when we're talking about the kinds of cuts that Republicans are trying to put in place, they're looking at a very small pot of discretionary spending. And, you know, it really makes for a really difficult situation that actually makes no dent in the budget. The other interesting thing to me is McCarthy was really struggling just among his own members to get the votes to pass this. The ones that I expected to be have the most problems with the bill are swing district Republicans who might be worried about going on record voting for some of the cuts that Domenico was just talking about. In the end,

the ones who voted no, and there were four, the most he could lose, and the ones that were most problematic were some of the conservatives who were making the argument this really doesn't change the trajectory of the deficit. And they wanted something that would have more of an impact on spending over the long term. And the speaker ended up making a commitment to one member, South Carolina Republican Nancy Mace, that the House would vote and have a debate about balancing the budget over 10 years. But Republicans don't want to talk about raising taxes to pay for Medicare. And Democrats don't really want to have to cut much to some of these other programs.

If McCarthy's effort with this bill was to try to get Biden to say, OK, let's start talking, It didn't seem to have that immediate effect. Yesterday, Domenico, the president came out and again said, I'm not going to negotiate on this. Just raise the debt limit. So it seems like Washington is stuck at this particular moment. Right now, it really is. And I think that the White House is concerned about setting a precedent of negotiating over the debt limit and basically doing a budget negotiation through a debt limit increase, which used to be routine. Now, at some point, they may be pulled to the table on this. But really, this is going to be a messaging fight over the next couple of months to see whether or not the things that stick with the American public are these potential cuts, or if it's that the White House isn't seemingly wanting to negotiate, even though they think that it's through a vehicle that they shouldn't be negotiating through. And that messaging fight is already on. The top Senate Democrat Chuck Schumer, the majority leader, just spoke on the floor earlier today. Democrats are labeling this bill default on America, DOA. Which also means dead on arrival. notes that House Republicans are the only ones who passed a bill to increase the debt limit,

there's really no sign that the dynamics have changed right now. I will also say that the thing that the president and congressional Democrats keep insisting they want is a vote on a clean bill to raise the debt limit without anything else attached to it. I don't think it can pass the House or the Senate. Yeah. All right. Let's take a quick break and we'll talk more about this when we get back. And we're back. And Domenico, you had referenced one of the last high stakes debt limit negotiations, which was back in 2011, 2012, at a time when the Tea Party and government spending was sort of central in the American political debate. And I know we talk a lot on the podcast about how the economy is regularly

a top issue for voters, but I am curious what you get the sense of where the electorate actually is right now on this question. Is the electorate as animated by this as the House Republican Conference? Yeah, it's interesting because, you know, the economy can mean a lot of different things. And I think that sometimes we conflate money with the economy and it's not always the same thing, right? And I think that people, when we look at polling, are very concerned about inflation in particular, the fact that their stuff costs more. I think that's the biggest issue for a lot of people. Whether or not they're as concerned about the debt itself, it can feel a little bit more esoteric and the kind of thing that a lot of think dollars in debt has been ballooning and has happened under multiple bipartisan administrations. So I think that this is really going to come down to sort of how the Democrats and Republicans fill

the void on what people should care about as they hear about this debt limit fight. Tactically, one of the things I find interesting about this round is that the two key players here really are President Biden and Speaker McCarthy. This is a fight that Speaker McCarthy has put a lot of political capital on. But it's interesting to me what a backseat role the Senate is playing. You referenced Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, but he's kind of just giving rhetorical talking points. McConnell giving some backup to McCarthy. Do you see any role for the Senate and the Senate leaders to play here, or are they just going to sit back and see how it plays out? I think for now, I don't see them being key players. I think that Senate Minority Leader

Mitch McConnell has made it pretty clear that he's backing up McCarthy. And I think the fact that the House Republicans passed a bill, and I think a lot of Senate Republicans weren't really confident that was going to happen, just given the slim margin and the internal dynamics that McCarthy's been dealing with. But I think things could change. We don't have that much time. We're almost into May. I am going to be honest and say I'm not really sure what the path is for some kind of compromise. The president has negotiated on the debt limit before when he was vice president. He has a lot of experience. Kevin McCarthy was around then, but he wasn't the lead negotiator. And I think

just seeing how hard it was for him to just pass a GOP wish list that was not going to go anywhere, shows you how much harder it's going to be when he has to try to go back to his members and say, hey, here's the compromise. We don't want to default, but you're not going to get X, Y, Z. I mean, a lot of his members just aren't there and have not really voted in the past to raise the debt ceiling. I think getting his members on record to vote to raise the debt limit was sort of his own personal victory, because now at least they're socialized on the issue. But I just think it's going to be a really hard thing for him to go back to. And I guess just getting back to Senate Republicans, maybe that's when they enter the arena on this, if things sort of

fall apart and it's stuck. You know, Mitch McConnell cares about very clear things. And one of them is trying to regain a Senate majority. And the 2024 election is one in which Republicans have a very, very good chance of taking a majority. But this was also said in 2016. You know, 2018, 2020, 2022, they've blown a lot of chances in races. But Mitch McConnell, to me, Domenico, is not someone, if he thinks default politics are not going to go well for the Republican Party, might in a very different role the last time that they had to negotiate this. I do think that when it comes down to it, Congress needs a deadline. So when they get really close to June or whenever the Treasury Department, et cetera, say that this has to be raised by this exact date is when we're going to see real movement on any of this. I do think, though, that Mitch McConnell, his brand with House Republicans is not that great. Yeah. A lot of House Republicans probably aren't going to be like, oh, Mitch McConnell has this deal. Now I'm going to be for it. I think it could have kind of a chilling effect. So I think that's another reason why he's stepping back. And I guess we'll sort of see how this plays out. But I think that might complicate things for McCarthy. Also, you don't need a default to create uncertainty. One of the things I thought was interesting this week was the Fitch Ratings Credit Agency said, quote,

repeated near default episodes brought on by debt limit debates could erode confidence that the U.S. government's repayment capacity is resilient to political dysfunction. Well, the Wall Street Journal types need to hear that and relay that to Republicans. Well, the Wall Street Journal types need to hear that and relay that to Republicans. But how many Wall Street Journal types are there really in the House Republican Conference anymore? That's just not what this party seems to be anymore, where they're most concerned about Wall Street and how it's interpreting things. And I think that we are going to continue to see this kind of standoff unless there are negotiations on the budgets going forward, which we haven't seen in years. different now. And I think the motivations for House Republicans in terms of what they will and will not accept is something that I think we're all still learning to see how far they're going

to go and how much they're going to resist any kind of compromise. Okay, let's leave it there. I have no doubt that you'll both be back soon to talk more about this. Susan Davis, I cover politics. I'm Deirdre Walsh, I cover Congress. And I'm Domenica Montanar, senior political editor and correspondent. And thanks for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast.