The NPR Politics Podcast - How Mapmaking Can Tilt The Balance In Congress

Episode Date: September 15, 2023

Congressional redistricting in Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi and New York may give Democrats a chance to win more seats in the House of Representatives & improve their chances to take back the chamber in the 2024 elections. We explore why.Then, bidding farewell to Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah), and saying hello to Taylor Swift. This episode: political correspondent Susan Davis, congressional correspondents Deirdre Walsh and Claudia Grisales, WNYC Albany reporter Jon Campbell, and Gulf States Newsroom reporter Stephan Bisaha.This episode was produced by Casey Morell and Elena Moore. Our executive producer is Muthoni Muturi. Unlock access to this and other bonus content by supporting The NPR Politics Podcast+. Sign up via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org. Connect:Email the show at [e-mail] the NPR Politics Podcast Facebook Group.Subscribe to the NPR Politics Newsletter.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Support for this podcast and the following message come from Autograph Collection Hotels, with over 300 independent hotels around the world, each exactly like nothing else. Autograph Collection is part of the Marriott Bonvoy portfolio of hotel brands. Find the unforgettable at AutographCollection.com. Hey there, it's the NPR Politics Podcast. I'm Susan Davis. I cover politics. And I'm Deirdre Walsh. I cover Congress. And we're joined today by John Campbell. He covers New York state government from Albany for WNYC. John, welcome to the pod.

Thank you for having me. And we wanted you on today because we're taking a look at redistricting. That is, of course, the process through which states decide where congressional districts are located based on population shifts and, by extension, who then gets to represent them in Congress. Most states' maps are settled, but there are still a handful of contentious battles playing out in different parts of the country over their maps. And each of these battles could help determine what party wins control of the House next year. One of these key states, if it should come as no surprise, is New York. So, John, walk us through what's been happening in your state with their congressional map. Yeah, absolutely. I mean, last year was the once-a-decade redistricting process in New York, all around the country. And

New York, for the first time, was supposed to have a more independent process before lawmakers had just drawn their own maps. Last year, there was a new independent redistricting commission, five Democrats, five Republicans that were supposed to draw these maps. And when you have an even split like that, guess what happened? They deadlocked. They couldn't get it done. The lawmakers had to step in. It's a Democratic legislature. They tried to draw a very Democratic heavy congressional map. New York has 26 districts. They drew a map where about 22 of them were Biden districts in 2020. So it was very, very Democratic heavy. The Republicans sued and they got those maps thrown out. All levels of the New York state court system threw them out, said that they were gerrymandering

and they went against the state constitution. So an independent expert was brought in from Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh to draw these maps. The court ordered it and they were much more even. And what happened, you saw Republicans do very well.

They won 11 of New York's 26 seats in a deep blue state in New York. And that was a significant pickup. Now, Democrats are still trying to get those maps thrown out and we find ourselves back in court. You know, John, this reminds me of the line that it's only gerrymandering when the other party does it. Because, you know, Democrats more often than Republicans advocate for redistricting reform, for making districts more fair, for having independent bodies draw the maps. But when that happens and it doesn't work in their favor, we're also seeing in the state they're like, wait a minute, maybe we should do this again. Yeah, and that's exactly what you're seeing playing out here. I mean, it is it's very, very complicated because this is a new process.

It was a constitutional amendment in 2014 that put in this new, quote unquote, independent process to draw the maps. But there was some question about, well, OK, so the legislature rejected this independent panel's first set of maps and then they couldn't come to an agreement on a second set. So that is kind of the battle here in court. And Democrats are arguing that that independent panel should get a second bite at the apple, essentially, for the rest of the decade. And if the Democratic legislature were to turn down that set of maps, then they could draw them again. So this is all going to play out in front of the Court of Appeals. It's New York's highest court, and it's scheduled for a ruling. When is it scheduled for? November 15th is when

they're going to when arguments are going to be held and then there'll be a ruling sometime after that. And they have to really be quick because then primary season is quickly upon us. Deirdre, I don't think we can overstate how consequential that map was in the 2022 midterms. The Republican gains in New York are widely credited with being the reason that the House flipped narrowly to Republican control. Who is at risk here if Democrats succeed and are able to get a map redrawn to make the districts more competitive or maybe more in their favor? I mean, you're right. I think some Republicans are still sort of the Hudson Valley area, people like Congressman Mike Lawler, Marcus Molinaro. I think there are a couple of Republicans who represent Long Island, people like Andrew Garbarino, Congressman Anthony

Desposito. Those are two other members that could have harder races depending on how the lines go. I think Republicans are ready to have tough fights in these races. Those members have been raising a lot of money in anticipation. But Republicans I talk to think that it helps that they have incumbents in these seats now. But a lot can change based on sort of like what Congress is doing right now in terms of its agenda, whether it's going to have a shutdown, how impeachment plays out. And I think those freshman New York Republicans could be the ones who could determine the majority in the next election. It's also fascinating because

the minority leader in the House is Hakeem Jeffries. He's obviously a Democrat. I mean, this is his home state. Party leaders tend to be deeply plugged into what's happening back home. And he also has a lot on the line here, because if Democrats are able to pick up seats in New York in the majority, he is presumably the next Speaker of the House. Right. And he could be the first Black Speaker of the House if they win the majority in 2024. I think there's a lot at stake for Jeffries. A lot of Democrats are still upset about how Democrats did in the last election. There was a lot of blame thrown sort of how she messaged or how the governor managed an uptick in crime. There's a lot of Democratic concern now about how the Biden administration is handling this sort of uptick in migration to the New York metropolitan area right now,

and how that could have an impact on a lot of these races, because a lot of those freshman Republicans we're talking about represent swing districts around the New York suburbs. John, you said this will go to court in November. If the court determines that the maps need to change in some way, they're going to have to do it pretty quickly, right? I mean, you referenced the primary seasons upon us, but you kind of need to let people know what the districts are going to look like so they can figure out where candidates are going to run. Yeah, absolutely. And I mean, that's kind of this side battle that's happening right now where the independent body is trying to figure out whether they should start their work now or if they should wait for the court battle. But the impact is enormous, both in New York State

and nationally. And that court hearing on November 15th is going to be, you know, the case of the year in New York's court system. Okay. John Campbell of WNYC, thank you so much for coming on the pod. Thank you for having me. We're going to take a quick break. And when we get back, we're going to take a look at redistricting in some southern states. And we're back and joining us is Stephen Visahaaja from the gulf states newsroom hey steven hey thanks for having me it's great to have you back um we've talked on the pod before about the alabama redistricting case but mississippi louisiana and georgia these are

all states where redistricting efforts are underway so let's just remind folks that the courts have basically ruled that alabama must redraw its congressional maps to create a second district where black Alabamans have the ability to elect their candidate of choice. What is the status of that case? Right now, it is potentially going back before the Supreme Court. Essentially, the legislature ignored the Supreme Court, ignored the judges that initially said you had to redraw your map, and came back with one that still just had only one majority black district. Judges don't seem to like it when you ignore their rulings. No, they don't. But they're appealing before the Supreme Court and with hopes the Supreme Court's going to take it again. And after they ignore their order, the chance that they will

is still pretty low. They're hoping they're going to be able to flip Brett Kavanaugh, because he and John Roberts sided with the liberals on the court. And again, pretty shocking to go against the Republican state legislature here. But yeah, essentially, these federal judges have assigned a special master and a cartographer that's going to redraw the maps for Alabama. And again, unless the Supreme Court does this really shocking move of intervening again in the opposite direction, there's a good chance we're going to have a second majority black district or something close to it in Alabama. And is the expectation that that map would also have to be redrawn in anticipation of the 2024 election? That's what the courts hope for, that it'll be ready for the 2024 election. They already have a hearing set aside for October,

in the beginning of October, with the idea that they'd have the map, they'd be able to deal with any disputes with it pretty quickly. In fact, they're making three maps just so they can have one or two get knocked down, they could still have one that will work. And the idea by if they could get it done by October, by the end of October, they're hoping that they'll be able to use it for 2024. Meanwhile, in Georgia, increasingly a state that we are watching for in national politics, but also in House and Senate races. They're also facing a lawsuit there over how its maps are drawn. Can you explain what's happening? Yeah, right now there is a trial going

on about this in Georgia. And again, the reason this is all happening is because of the U.S. census. So back in 2010, the difference between 2010 and 2020 as far as population, Georgia added more than half a million Black residents. So Black residents are a much larger portion of Georgia now. Now they make up a third of the state. But the plaintiffs in these lawsuits are arguing that despite this big population jump, there wasn't an increase in Black political power, including on the congressional districting side. So they want another majority black district or, again, something where black Georgians have a good chance of electing their candidate of choice. And we can never, you know, really be certain what the judges are going to how they're going to decide these types of cases.

But the judge here has already said that some parts of the legislature's maps violate federal law. And he just wants a trial to kind of flesh out the details. So there's a very good chance here we're going to get another district that is a majority black district in Georgia, or at least close to majority black district. And that likely will mean a win for Democrats in Alabama and in Georgia that they didn't get before. You're just to focus the point about the larger stakes here. We were just talking about potentially four districts in New York, the two additional districts in the South here that would be very heavily favored for Democrats. That's six seats. That is more than the Democrats need to take over

a majority of the House. Before we even start talking about swing seats and competitive seats in other states, Just these redistricting seats could put the House in play. Right. And Democrats are saying that the strategy is going to be a big part of their effort overall to take back the House, focusing efforts in places that they haven't before. There was, as we were hearing from Stephen, this chance in Georgia in the last redistricting, they had two Democrats that had to run against each other because they were losing a seat. And I think the candidate that lost there is eager to come back to the House and could run in that potentially new district. Democrats see that as an opportunity

because it's a veteran House Democrat who could go back and wage a campaign to return to the House. I think it's really interesting that there are lawmakers in places like Louisiana, who, because of redrawn maps, might have a competitive race when they've never had one before. There's like some places that have been sort of reliably read. For example, there's a seat around Baton Rouge that's represented by Garrett Graves, who's a House Republican who's a big ally of Speaker Kevin McCarthy's, he could face a competitive race and force Republicans to spend money in a place that they haven't had to before. So I think that's sort of everyone's waiting to see how these lines are redrawn. And as we've seen in the past,

some things don't go the way that Democrats expect in redistricting. I don't think they're putting all the eggs in the redistricting basket, but it's definitely a key part of the map on how they get back to the majority if they can in 2024. Because, Stephen, there's also, Deirdre mentioned Louisiana. Louisiana is another state that could be facing redrawn maps as well as Mississippi. Yeah, Louisiana, the math is pretty simple because it's like Georgia where one third of the state is black. But with six congressional seats, you would expect two would be a majority black or at least heavily black districts. Instead, there's just one here. And we've already had a lower court rule saying that, hey, black voting power is diluted here in

Louisiana. And this case has had many kind of stops and starts and been delayed in big part because they're waiting on to hear what's going to happen with Alabama's case before the Supreme Court. Obviously, that went in favor of Voting Rights Act advocates. So now this case in Louisiana, it's back on. It's going in front of the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals. This is a famously conservative court. So the outcome is not as obvious appearing as it would be in Georgia. But if this court ends up following kind of the track record and what we're seeing with other courts deciding on

redistricting cases here in the South, this could potentially be another district going in favor of Democrats. Is there also a level of pressure to resolve these questions soon? Every state has different filing deadlines. I admit I'm not entirely sure what they all are across the southern region, but some states start facing filing deadlines as soon as January, February next year. Oh, yes. And we've seen this is why Alabama is trying to move fast and have this map in place by October. The further we get into the political calendar, and I don't need to remind you that 2024's elections, they are fast approaching. So the further we get along, the more reluctant that the courts are going to be to actually use these new maps for 2024. They could get pushed back to 2026. We saw this with Alabama for the last election. Even though the courts had ruled

the maps were illegal, the Supreme Court said, yes, you could still use those maps while we work this out. So even if you do get a situation where the courts decide we need to redraw your maps or you need to remake your maps, they might still rely on these older maps. So these gains that Democrats are expecting might not happen until the midterms. You know, Deirdre, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, not exactly swing states we're watching in 2024. But in Georgia, I do think it's interesting that if they do change those maps and add another district where black Georgians candidate would be favored, could have the effect of boosting black turnout, which is something that the Biden campaign needs to happen very,

very clearly to win in a state like Georgia. Right. And I mean, and it could be one of those cases, again, where we're looking at that race as determining the outcome of the presidential election. So we've been here before, but I also think that Democrats see it as a huge opportunity. And there are just a lot of well-known personalities in the Georgia House delegation. And I think that will attract a lot of money and attention to a lot of those races. If there's one thing I am never in doubt of is that there will be enough money when it comes to competitive races. Stephen Passaha of the Gulf States Newsroom, thanks so much for coming back on the pod. Thanks again for having me. All right, let's take a quick break. And when we get back, time for Can't Let It Go.

And we're back and we've got Claudia Grisales with us now. Hey, Claudia. Hey there. It's good to hear your voice. It's so good to be back. Well, we brought you back for Can't Let It Go, the part of the pod where we talk about the thing from the week we can't stop talking about, politics or otherwise. I'm going to go first this week because I think it might be something we all have some thoughts on. Utah Senator Mitt Romney announced that he was not going to seek reelection this week.

I have many reasons why I can't let this go. Part of it is I was completely wrong because I had talked to Romney earlier in the week about House Republicans' decision to move forward with impeachment. And he said he actually thought there was maybe worth looking at some things here. And it was the kind of statement that I thought to myself, this sounds like a guy who's running for re-election. Right. He was very, like, torn, like, the day before, I think I talked to him in the hallways with a group of reporters. He was keeping everyone guessing. Right. But it turns out he's known for months that he wasn't going to run for re-election. And all of this came out in a piece in The Atlantic where McKay Coppins, who is writing

his official biography, did a piece explaining why Romney's leaving the Senate. It's a great piece. But also part of why I can't let it go is Romney just spills the tea of their colleagues. You know, like even sometimes in their own biographies, they kind of sound like politicians. And he talks about Mitch McConnell, Josh Hawley, like all these senators, and how he kind of really is judgy about how they- Doesn't really like them. Yeah, how he didn't really fit in the Senate. And I have to say, words I never thought I'd say,

I'm actually really looking forward to reading Mitt Romney's biography now. Yeah, I think it's interesting, too. He's a reminder of kind of the social slash political structure here in terms of members who move in groups. And then those who are kind of lone wolves, they're loners. And in those latter cases, they don't last as long when it comes to the Capitol. They're just not as much as part of the fabric. And it's easier for them to get up and go like we're seeing Romney do. Deidre, what can't you let go of? What I can't let go of is also from that same Atlantic story about Mitt Romney. And it's this image of Senator Mitt Romney sitting alone in his Capitol Hill townhouse, pulling salmon out of the freezer from Lisa Murkowski

and heating it up and throwing a bunch of ketchup on it and sitting in front of his, like, evidently nine-foot TV watching Ted Lasso. Wow. I mean, I like salmon. Salmon's, like, my go-to dinner. Same. But I just don't understand.

In this story, McKay Coppins describes like Romney's life. A typical night. Romney's sort of lonely, eats dinner alone, doesn't have a lot of friends in Washington existence, which to me was interesting because he's a politician. Also, like he could go to dinner with his staff. He could go to dinner with Lisa Murkowski. I mean, Angus King seems like a senator he actually likes. Right. So, you know, he also has a lot of money. So, like, if he doesn't really like salmon in the freezer, like, he could just door dash his dinner. I just don't get. I'm willing to share some of my own salmon recipes. So his salmon was plain salmon on a roll with ketchup. That was his, like, go-to meal.

And he, in this story, says it didn't really taste that good, but it was sort of like an easy dinner. Efficiency meals. And I love the fact that Lisa Murkowski screenshotted that part of the article and tweeted, I'm grateful to serve with Senator Mitt Romney, but he's wrong about salmon. What about you, Claudia? Do you also have a Mitt Romney related I actually do not. It's the exact like on another end of another spectrum. And actually, I was so looking forward to this because it's a therapy session. You guys get to be the therapist. Oh, I love line. Give us Yes. Give me what do you have to say caller? Okay. So I had a life changing experience. I was out in LA for a training slash

fellowship program, my youngest daughter tagged along. And lo and behold, it was the week that Taylor Swift was doing her last U.S. leg, as far as we knew, of this extravaganza concert tour. And I liked Taylor Swift, but I wasn't a Swifty. I wasn't fully in. But I don't know what got in my head when she said that to me, but I was like, we have to go. It was meant to be, Claudia. It was meant to be. And so we actually went night one in LA. We only drove outside and I literally, it was so electrifying. I was like literally on the verge of tears, but I warned my daughter,

as beautiful as it all sound, I don't know if I can make it more than three hours in 44 songs. And so the next night we got our tickets, like maybe two hours before she went on. We went. And not only did I last all 44 songs, but I'm fully inducted as a Swiftie. I'm like in the club. Ooh, it's like a cult. Yes. And it's like this week, USA Today, the Tennessean announced a new position for a Taylor Swift reporter. And I literally want to apply just to have the experience because my new mission in life is I'm going to memorize all the words to all 44 songs, maybe even try to go to the next U.S. leg.

She's going to Miami, Indiana. She's going to hit Toronto. So I'm like gaming the system. And then she has a movie coming out that includes a documentary of one of the two nights we were there. So, of course, my daughter and I are in it. Of course. I'm sure you will be. Your daughter is lobbying for you to get this job.

But I'd have to leave my family. So there is that. Small details. Small details. Is the question, should I leave my family? Because I think we're here to say yes. Follow your truth. All right. That is it for us today. Our executive producer is Mathoni Mottori. Our editor is Eric

McDaniel. Our producers are Alina Moore and Casey Murrell. Thanks to Christian Evkalimer and Lexi Schapittle. I'm Susan Davis. I cover politics. I'm Deirdre Walsh. I cover Congress. I'm Claudia Grises. I also cover Congress while I'm not obsessing about Taylor Swift. And thanks for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast.