The NPR Politics Podcast - How One Authoritarian Used Migrants As A Political Tool, And Why It Worries Biden

Episode Date: December 13, 2021

U.S. officials have accused Belarusian strongman Alexander Lukashenko of being the latest to take advantage of desperate migrants. They say he helped bring migrants from war-torn nations to the Belarus border in order to create a humanitarian crisis and put political pressure on his European neighbors. Officials worry this type of strategy might be used again.This episode: White House correspondent Tamara Keith, White House correspondent Franco Ordoñez, and reporter Charles Maynes.Connect:Subscribe to the NPR Politics Podcast here.Email the show at [e-mail] the NPR Politics Podcast Facebook Group.Listen to our playlist The NPR Politics Daily Workout.Subscribe to the NPR Politics Newsletter.Find and support your local public radio station.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Hey there, it's Tamara Keith, and it's that time of year again when we come to you and ask for a little bit of help. Every day we are here in your podcast feed, and there is so much that goes into gathering the facts and explaining what they mean and also making us sound good. And in order to keep this going, we need your support. By donating to your local NPR station, you are not only helping your station bring you local news that matters in your community, and that is really important, but you're also helping us cover the White House and Congress. Your donation is crucial from your hometown all the way to Washington and everywhere in between. To help us out, go to donate.npr.org slash politics to get started. And thank you. Hi, this is Danielle. I'm calling in from Aledo, Texas, where I'm babysitting my one-year-old

nephew. This podcast was recorded at 2.07 p.m. on Monday, December 13th. Things may have changed by the time you hear this. Like, for example, hopefully one of us will have taken a nap. Okay, here's the show. Sleep when the baby sleeps. I hope the baby's listening. We need some younger listeners. Yeah, maybe the baby will keep listening, unlike my children who say,

Alexa, play something else. Anything else. Hey there, it's the NPR Politics Podcast. I'm Tamara Keith. I cover the White House. And I'm Frank Ordonez. I also cover the White House. Usually when we say authoritarian and Eastern Europe in the same sentence, we are talking about Russian President Vladimir Putin. But not today. We are headed to Belarus, where strongman Alexander Lukashenko is being accused by the White House of using migrants as political tools. And to talk about this topic, we have our Eastern Europe expert for NPR,

Charles Mainz, here with us from Moscow. Hey, Charles. Hi there. Franco, let's start with you and set the scene for us. Why is the White House making this accusation and what's going on? Yeah, I mean, what's going on is that over the last few months, Alexander Lukashenko was using state resources to help migrants from war-torn countries like Iraq, like Afghanistan, Yemen, to come to Belarus. And he was handing out visas for them

to do that. And then his people were directing them to the border with Poland. Our colleague, actually, Rob Schmitz, did some great reporting on the border a few weeks ago. And he even met some Cubans stranded in the forest there along the border, the very cold forest. And the White House says that Lukashenko was basically using these people, using these migrants and the vulnerability of them as a weapon to basically cause problems for the European Union and to kind of stoke these political divisions, these emotional divides within Europe over migrants and refugees. So, Charles, I have a lot of questions about what's going on there. But

first, can you just tell us who Alexander Lukashenko is to give us a sense of why this might be happening? Yeah, sure. So Lukashenko is the leader of Belarus since 1994, although the methods he's used to stay in power, particularly since a very, very controversial election in 2020, have put the legitimacy of his leadership in doubt. He's no longer recognized as the president of Belarus by the EU, for example, or the US. And there's a reason he's called Europe's last dictator. It's an authoritarian regime. It jails opponents, silences critics.

Lukashenko himself is a former collective farm director. So in the Soviet system, he ran farms. His support is mainly in rural regions of Belarus. And it really comes from sheltering Belarusians from the shock of Western capitalism in the 90s that left many, you know, it basically left them, if not rich, then not oppressively poor in a kind of Soviet light existence that's appealing, particularly to older Soviet generation of Belarus. And his mannerisms are kind of as this folky simpleton, but it's actually not very true. I mean, he's much more clever and ruthless than that to have kept his grip on power for 26 years. And so, as you said, Franco, Lukashenko is allegedly bringing migrants in from all over

the world to this border to create a migrant crisis for Poland. Yeah, exactly. I mean, it's basically payback for what Charles was kind of describing about how the United States and European leaders do not recognize Lukashenko as the president of the country. And he has been steaming over it. He's been angry over sanctions that have been placed against him for this, for corruption. And basically, he is, you know, inflicting this as a way of payback, but also to kind of build leverage against these adversaries who are

essentially a stronger force. He doesn't have many options. So this is one of them. It's a new form of asymmetrical warfare, or, you know, being used to counter someone who is stronger to exploit these vulnerable immigrants to kind of exploit their desperation and also pull on the heartstrings of Western democracies, in this case, Europe, knowing very well that it's going to cause some civil strife. It's this new geopolitical tool. I mean, it has been used before, but it is being used in new ways and perhaps more commonly now. And the White House is very concerned that it could be used even more as more people leave their homes amid increased instability, as well as climate change. I mean, this would seem to be incredibly craven. Like these are people. This isn't just like machinery that you move around.

Absolutely. I mean, it's really preying on the desperation of people who are trying and searching for not only a better life, but trying to survive. These are mothers and fathers and children and grandparents. I mean, the images that you saw on the Belarus border in the cold, in the forest, and there's also been some deaths because of the conditions there. And to be using that in order to build political leverage, it's a sad state. You know, I think it's interesting because what Frank was pointing out, this migrant surge, you know, it's political. It's a way to punish, that Lukashenko can punish Europe,

but particularly his neighbors. We're talking about Poland, Lithuania, who are harboring the political opposition of Belarus. These are people that fled Belarus. They've stationed themselves abroad. And they're trying to basically create a shadow government in opposition to Lukashenko. And so this is a way, first of all, to punish those governments that are housing these people. It's also a way to

force the EU to recognize Lukashenko as still the center of power in Belarus and maybe cut deals. So, you know, it is fundamentally blackmail. Lukashenko is showing that he can make problems, but he can also take those problems away if you deal with them. And in a way, it's worked to a certain degree. And he got European leaders like now former chancellor, German Chancellor Angela Merkel to engage with him for the first time since the 2020 election, which I suppose lends a certain legitimacy. On the other hand, the tactic has backfired in the sense that Europe has passed more sanctions on Lukashenko's government, not less. So he's a pariah. Franco, I want to bring this back to the United States. What does the Biden White House want to happen here? How are they dealing with it? Do they see it as a problem for the US?

I mean, they definitely see it as a problem for the U.S. I mean, that's why, I mean, certainly this is an issue for some of the United States' closest allies. And that's why they joined allies in issuing these sanctions, hoping to discourage this behavior. And the United States is pushing governments like Poland, but also others as climate change pushes more migrants out of their homes to follow more reasonable and humane policies. So basically that the authoritarian leaders like Lukashenko and like others don't have this kind of leverage to use against them. They know that this is going to create problems for their European neighbors, hence why they do that. And frankly, though, there are real questions about whether the damage has already been done. I mean, the politics of this is already so divisive.

I mean, we see that in the United States. It's as much, if not more, divisive in Europe, especially, you know, we saw that a few years ago, and we continue to see that after the refugee and migration crisis leading after the Syrian civil war. And this is, you know, this is really a problem all around the world. And again, there is a real, real fear that this will only get worse as migration increases, and especially as migration increases with climate change. All right, we're going to take a quick break. And when we get back, more on this idea of climate refugees being used as political pawns

in the coming decades. And we're back. And as we've been having this conversation, it has seemed pretty cut and dried. Like Lukashenko did a bad thing, weaponized migration. But is he the only one who has any blame here? as it sort of held the wall against these migrants coming into Europe, or at least applying for asylum in Europe. They didn't get their cases heard. You know, this violated their obligations under the European Union, under the UN as well. And, you know, in some ways, I think this case with Belarus, there's a slight moral simplicity because Lukashenko is weaponizing the situation. But if you had more extenuating circumstances where, OK, a leader looks the other way and people pass through the country, but it's because of a climate migrant crisis or something

else. So it just seems to me that this case, you know, you can't let the EU off the hook completely for their behavior here. So is there a worry that this has worked? I mean, I don't know that it worked, really worked, but it created a situation. It became a focal point. It forced Europe to respond to Lukashenko. Is there a concern that this becomes something that happens more regularly? I think there's definitely a concern that this happens more regularly. That's certainly the concern that the White House has.

I mean, you know, just, you know, kind of noted, it's not just Lukashenko who has done this. After the Syrian crisis, Turkish President, you know, Recep Erdogan, he used Syrian refugees fleeing to kind of basically push for billions in payments. At first, it was because there were so many going through and he was trying, you know, you could argue that he was, you know, trying to help out. But since then, there are, you know, more than, I think, 3 million Syrian migrants in his country. And he has threatened on multiple occasions

to essentially open the doors for those to go to Europe, creating panic in Europe. So that has been a way to build leverage. And as climate change, more migrants go forward, there are real concerns that this could increase. The United States has, or the Biden administration has warned that Russia could take advantage of this. They've warned that China could take advantage of this. There's big concerns in the government that this could get worse, and not only overseas, but possibly in the Western Hemisphere as well. I also think it's important to point out that this

situation is not exactly over on the Belarusian-Polish border, right? It's stabilized a bit in the sense that Belarusian authorities, they started giving people some housing. So basically the migrants are stuck in a giant warehouse in poor conditions. Certainly better than being out in the cold, but still not great. You still have these minor incursions of migrants trying to cross the border, apparently with some assistance from the Belarusian military. That's what the polls say. Certainly some are returning and going home. Some have been forced to forth have been some forced deportations as well by Belarus back to Iraq and Syria and other places. And so, you know, it's it's still ongoing, but it's more like instead of a crisis. Now, it seems more of a pressure valve. It's something that Lukashenko can turn back on if he chooses to. We've been talking a lot about Europe here, but Franco, you sort of alluded to this. This could be an issue in this hemisphere. Certainly, this could be an issue that comes

right to the door of the United States. Yeah, I think there's no question about that. And the White House acknowledges that as well. And even in a recent report about increased migration due to climate change, it points out the divisive politics over migration in this hemisphere, particularly from Central America, and also reflects on the lack of bipartisan support for any type of solution. So the White House acknowledges that it is a big problem for the United States to confront. It hopes that the United States can kind of be a model for better behavior. But I think we've all seen how difficult and how divisive migration can be in the United States and can see how that can, you know, become a bigger and bigger problem

going forward. Yeah, Europe doesn't have a corner on the market. That's for sure. And having issues over migration. All right. Well, that is a wrap for today. Charles, thank you so much for joining us. Thanks, guys. I'm Tamara Keith. I cover the White House. I'm Frank Ordonez. I also cover the White House. And thank you for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast.