The NPR Politics Podcast - How the GOP plans to fight an anti-incumbent wave

Episode Date: August 4, 2026

The president's party typically loses seats in a midterm election, and President Trump's low favorability ratings aren't helping Republicans as November nears. We discuss how Republican candidates are pitching themselves to voters and what structural advantages could improve their odds. This episode: senior political correspondent Tamara Keith, congressional reporter Eric McDaniel, and political reporter Saige Miller.This podcast was produced by Casey Morell and edited by Rachel Baye.Our executive producer is Muthoni Muturi.Support public media with NPR+ and enjoy perks for over 25 podcasts like this one. This show’s perks include bonus episodes and sponsor-free listening. Learn more at plus.npr.org.See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for sponsorship and to manage your podcast sponsorship preferences.NPR Privacy Policy

There's a nearly unbroken historical pattern. The president's party typically loses seats in midterm elections. President Trump's historically low approval rating isn't helping Republicans on the ballot, but he and his party have worked hard to lock in some structural advantages. It's the NPR Politics Podcast. I'm Tamara Keith. I cover politics. I'm Eric McDaniel. I cover Congress. And I'm Sage Miller. I also cover politics. Okay, so we have talked about this on the podcast several times before.

is a massive anti-incumbent mood in the country this election cycle. It is thought to favor Democrats. So, Eric, in competitive districts, what is the message to voters from Republicans, you know, given that voters are so unhappy with the direction of the country? Yeah, I mean, it's not going to surprise you that like you've talked about many times on the podcast before, the message does focus on the economy, but it focuses on what is either the working family's tax cut act or the one big beautiful bill depending on who you ask. It's the same piece of legislation. Yes, it is the same thing. Yeah, this is President Trump's signature domestic policy legislation that they passed through Congress last year via reconciliation that was a huge tax cut bill. Outside analysis would suggest that huge benefits from that

tax cut bill went to corporations and the wealthy. But there were also some things like no tax on tips, a tax break on social security benefits that are appealing, I would say, to American taxpayers. And so Republicans are trying to message on that bill. I talked to Bernadette Breslin. She's the National Press Secretary for the National Republican Senatorial Committee about what Senate candidates are talking about around the country. And here's what she said. President Trump and Senate Republicans have delivered lower drug prices,

a secure border, new jobs, and lower taxes. And our candidates continue to speak with voters across battleground states who have shared how Republicans' working families tax cuts, for instance, have positively impacted their lives through no taxes on tips over time and social security. So yeah, a tough environment, but the message is pretty consistent and maybe unsurprising. And Sage, you've been out talking to voters and seeing candidates in action. What are you seeing? Oh, definitely from candidates.

They're really trying to position themselves in different camps, almost within the Republican Party itself. There's an open house seat in Washington's fourth congressional district because Representative Dan Newhouse, one of the only Republicans in Congress that voted to impeach Donald Trump announced that he is not running for re-election. So now there is this hot primary race to try and figure out who his replacement's going to be. You've got the Trump endorsed candidate who's also trying to position herself as, you know, things aren't super great right now. And while I will prosper Donald Trump's agenda on the hill, I also will break with my party when necessary. Then you have the anti-establishment, total political outsider who is really using it to his advantage that he's never been a elected official before,

saying that he understands where people are coming from. He understands how people are getting ripped off and why people are so mad and it's because of the establishment. But then you also have a moderate candidate who is a member of the state legislature who is not trying to really brand himself as the establishment, but just trying to put civility back into politics. They're all trying to like step away from this idea of being in the establishment. by drawing out parts of themselves that they believe will resonate with voters while also still being mad at the establishment, despite their party being the establishment. Right. Though I guess, like, since they're not technically in Congress right now, they have a certain advantage there in being able to put a little distance between themselves and the president while also hugging the president.

President Trump's approval rating right now at this moment, and there are still some months to go, is the lowest. it's been in his second term. That's not generally what you want when you're a candidate from the president's party. So how are Republican candidates navigating this? I think they're trying to highlight a lot of the great things that they believe Donald Trump has done when he's in office, specifically, you know, securing the southern border. But they're also trying to recognize that a lot of their constituents aren't feeling great. They're feeling the pinch in their pocket. They're feeling it at the gas pump, especially in Washington state, where it's over $5. a gallon and especially in the fourth congressional district where a lot of it is agricultural and

farmers are super, super, super hurting. But something that's very fascinating about Washington's fourth congressional district is that while the president is weighing in and he has issued an endorsement in this race, a Trump endorsed candidate has never won in Washington's fourth congressional district, despite it being the most conservative district in the blue state. And I sat down with Lisa Herkey. She's a Republican voter in Yakima, Washington, which is one of the only cities in that district. And this is what she had to say about Trump's influence on this election. I think Trump is very important in this district, and most people support him. But for this district, I think people are independent-minded enough that they're going to look at all the candidates and

make a decision. So I wouldn't say, you know, Trump's record for getting people, he endorsed elected is very, very good. I don't know if it'll hold true in this race or not. And that's what I'll be watching tonight is to see if the Trump endorsed candidate finally ekes out a W in this district that has perpetually produced losses for Donald Trump in the endorsement arena. We are definitely going to be watching that voting ins in Washington tonight. Eric, what are you seeing in terms of this anti-incumbent mood? I think it's interesting and it's one of the things that You know, I talked on the podcast about pretty recently with Mara was voters are frustrated, and I think you heard Lisa Herkey talk about it when they think about what Washington represents. They're frustrated with corruption and this perception that people are on the take. And this is, you know, more than 90 percent of folks of all political identities. So Democrats, Republicans and self-identified independents see corruption is a big problem. And when they think about that, what they're actually talking about when you ask them more sincerely is that, politicians aren't acting in voters' interests. They're acting in their own self-interest. And, you know, I'm not surprised that that's something that Sage is hearing a lot about when she talks to voters on the campaign trail.

People are really upset with the establishment, especially Republican voters that I have spoken with. I spoke with Tony Ballard. She is another GOP voter in Yakima. And she's super excited that there is an open seat that doesn't necessarily have somebody who is ever really interacted with Washington in such a way. that Dan Newhouse has. It's exciting the possibility of maybe an outsider coming in. That's not really a politician that will really work for us. Outsider. That's a word we're hearing in Democratic primaries, too. A lot of the rhetoric is pretty similar on the, on the Democrat and the Republican side of what they want. I also think about that when you hear Republican candidates saying that they don't want big money in politics, like they're self-funding, their own campaign. They don't want these big pack monies coming in so they don't look like they're being influenced by anybody, especially in these districts that are very upset with the incumbent that is in the race. So I also spoke to Autumn Torres.

She's another GOP voter in Yakima. I think she put it best of what she is looking for for their representative in Congress. I want. And someone who's actually going to represent the people and not a Washington, D.C., not. not lobbyists, not whatever, but the people of the district that, like we said, the farmers, the struggling business owner, people are looking for someone who's actually going to represent us. Republicans are mindful that these are the kinds of outsider candidates that voters are looking for. And they're trying to do two things at once, right? Both brand Democrats as to Washington and to

extreme. They support raising taxes on hardworking Americans. They, you know, don't address your real concerns. Bernadette Breslin, the NRC press secretary I spoke to. She's also trying to say they're opposed to the games that the president has made in areas voters care about, like fighting crime. Americans are seeing violent crime rates, for instance, plummet nationally. And that's thanks to the leadership of President Trump and Senate Republicans. And this is. happening even in deep blue states and even in swing states where Democrats have undermined law enforcement and even fueled dangerous defund the police rhetoric. So we talked about the positive, affirmative Republican message, but there is also a negative Republican message,

which is like kind of the key to a midterm anyway, disqualify the other guy. I guess that's sort of the key to every election. But how are Republicans trying to disqualify Democrats? So there's that. You just heard that they embrace far left messages, you know, things like defund the police or abolish ICE. Brezlin described it to me, talking about the Michigan Senate primary, specifically is a race to the bottom where you have a more progressive candidate and a more establishment candidate, both in Brezlin's mind, you know, embracing incredibly extreme positions that will alienate voters. But it's also about how Republicans are able to articulate. and have their message heard in this pretty chaotic environment. All right. We're going to take a quick break and we'll have more when we get back. And we're back. And we've talked about the message.

But if candidates want voters to hear that message, they're going to need money. So, Eric, tell us how Republican candidates are positioned financially, especially in some of these more competitive races in the Senate and in the House. Look, I mean, the bottom line is the parties are on pretty even footing, but in very different ways. So Democratic candidates are having really great success fundraising. You're seeing them up something like $150 million nationally over their Republican opponents. But where Republicans make up that advantage is in their affiliated congressional groups like the group that Bernadette Breslin works for, the National Republican Senatorial Committee. That group's corresponding organization on the House side, as well as all of these outside super PACs.

I talked to Brendan Glaven of Open Secrets, which is a group, a nonprofit that tracks money in politics. He's their director of insights. And here's what he told me about all of these outside groups and how they're helping Republicans. These outside groups play a very important role in these races. Republicans have a very big advantage. At the Super PAC level, the Super PACs I'm talking about, they have $187 million cash advantage. And then the big X factor is Trump's Super PAC, which is MAGA, Inc. That Super PAC has $400 million.

And that money is all available to be spent on the midterms. if he chooses to. Yeah, and I think that is one of the big questions of this election cycle, whether that money is going to get spent to help prop up Republican candidates in the House and the Senate, or whether it might just stay in Trump's accounts for some other purpose, like maybe 2028. This is really important to think about because we've seen Trump kind of feud with his own party in Congress, right? He's not on good terms with Senate Majority Leader John Thune. And he's kind of constantly stood in the way of things Senate Republicans are trying to get done in order to pressure them to pass his self-styled election integrity bill that would do things like require proof of citizenship to register to vote and ban all mail-in voting that Republicans don't have the support there to pass. So he's been very frustrated and kind of antagonistic with them. And so we will see if the president and his political advisors decide to use this money to weigh into midterm races. I expect they will to. some extent. But either way, you know, because of these leadership groups and super PACs, Republican

candidates will have, you know, backup support if and where they are falling behind their Democratic opponents on fundraising. Also, just to like put some math on it, the Republican National Committee has $128 million cash on hand. The Democratic National Committee has negative $2 million. So there is in groups in party infrastructure, there is a major advantage for Republicans. But as you say, at the candidate level, you know, Republican candidates aren't raising as much. I will also, this has been shown on both the Democrat and the Republican side, but I'm going to focus on the Republican side on this, is that the candidates that don't have this PAC money, that don't have these high endorsements, that don't have a bunch of dough rolling into their campaign account or essentially using it to their advantage. as a way to say, look, I am more with the people. I am not taking all of this corporate money. I am not raising all of these high profile dollars. Like, this is truly a grassroots campaign because me,

as your next representative, will not be relying on this money to make sure that I am not bought. Like, they are really, really digging in their heels to say, I may not have this money, but that is actually a good thing. And here is why. And money is not the only factor here. There's also the map. President Trump last year kicked off a redistricting arms race. He told Republicans to redraw that state's map to create five more Republican-leaning seats. Then California responded. And then there was just a lot, a lot, a lot, a lot of redrawing of maps. Where does that leave the advantage when all is said and done? I would say that Republicans won this redistricting war. I mean, they came out probably with a net boost of 10 seats where they're favored over what they had before this race started.

Democrats were obviously able to redraw maps in some places, like you said, California, they gained seats. But other places they tried, like Virginia, they were blocked by the courts or, you know, just didn't have their state legislatures take it up or whatever it was. So Republicans did come out with a slight advantage, but still the president's party always struggles in the midterms. President Trump himself is rather unpopular right now in the midst of a high cost of living and things like the war with Iran. And so that leaves a lot of these remaining toss-up seats, right? Because of gerrymandering and overall partisan sorting before this, there already weren't so many competitive seats. Our friends at Cook Political Report have 18 House seats listed as toss-ups. 14 of those are held by Republicans.

The prediction markets and forecasts we've seen right now have Democrats in the House picking up anywhere between 10 and 30. seats total. And I think it's worth noting that this fight is genuinely not over. And I think that we're going to continue to see this redistricting battle happen until the next redistricting cycle actually happens. I talked to a handful of Republican candidates in Democratic states like Oregon and Washington, where I've asked them, are you worried that the district that you are running in is going to be drawn away once the state legislature comes back into session. And it sounds like they don't even want to think about that idea. They're like, oh, I can't. Like, I, I, I, I, I don't want to compute that. I don't even want to think about it. Like, I'm running this race right now. And that's what I'm going to be focused on. But I do believe that it is going to be a topic of conversation. And we've already seen some local reporting on this, especially out of Washington, to shows that the state legislature, which is usually democratically dominated, is going to take up redrawing the districts to ice out Republicans in order to make up some ground that Republicans have gained during this mid redistricting cycle. It's going to be complicated. There's going to be legal fights, of course. But I

I'm not seeing the end of it. The war has started. The war has not ended. Yeah. And I think, Eric, I want to just pause on a point that you made, which is the battleground in this midterm is not very large. There are not that many seats that are competitive, which means that even if Democrats run the table, the size of the majority that they gain would not be as large as majorities that party. have gained in past midterms. I think that's definitely true. In 2018, which was considered a great year for Democrats, it was Trump's first midterm cycle. They gained 41 seats in the House. And it was also considered a good midterm cycle for them in the Senate where they lost two seats. And that's because the Senate historically, including this election cycle, has a lot of advantages for Republicans. Brezlin, who leads communications for their Senate campaign arm, was talking to me about how they're excited about defending in places that Trump has won three. times, including North Carolina and Alaska, which are considered competitive this cycle. But they are without question red states. So is Ohio. You know, even if Democrats do well because of these things like redistricting and gerrymandering and partisan sorting over a long time, any blue wave is sort of capped. And for President Trump, all of this matters a lot. It's not clear exactly what his remaining

second term agenda actually includes because he hasn't talked about. much more than that that election bill. But whatever he would like to do, including just nominations and confirmations and, you know, running the government the way he wants to run it could really be stymied. And let's not forget, like, if Democrats do take one chamber, say the House, it opens the door to investigations and oversight that he doesn't currently face with a Republican majority. Right. Which is why he's been working so hard to try to tilt things in his favor. We have to leave it there for today. And a quick programming note, a lot of states have had primaries that are wrapping up today, and we will have those results on

tomorrow's pod. I'm Tamara Keith. I cover politics. I'm Eric McDaniel. I cover Congress. And I'm Sage Miller. I also cover politics. And thank you for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast.