The NPR Politics Podcast - "I Feel No Need To Kiss The Ring"

Episode Date: February 20, 2024

Former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley delivered a rousing speech to supporters in South Carolina today, vowing to stay in the race for the state's primary on Saturday and beyond. And with just a week before the Michigan primary, a democratic congresswoman is urging voters to vote against Joe Biden in the election by selecting 'uncommitted' on their ballots. This episode: political correspondent Susan Davis, senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro and national political correspondent Mara Liasson.Our producers are Jeongyoon Han, Casey Morell & Kelli Wessinger. Our editor is Erica Morrison. Our executive producer is Muthoni Muturi. Listen to every episode of the NPR Politics Podcast sponsor-free, unlock access to bonus episodes with more from the NPR Politics team, and support public media when you sign up for The NPR Politics Podcast+ at plus.npr.org/politics.Connect:Email the show at [e-mail] the NPR Politics Podcast Facebook Group.Subscribe to the NPR Politics Newsletter.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Support for this podcast and the following message come from Autograph Collection Hotels, with over 300 independent hotels around the world, each exactly like nothing else. Autograph Collection is part of the Marriott Bonvoy portfolio of hotel brands. Find the unforgettable at AutographCollection.com. This is Carl from Atlanta, Georgia, and I just bought my first home. This podcast was recorded at... 1.22 p.m. on Tuesday, February 20th. Things may have changed by the time you hear this,

but I will be asking my girlfriend and her two cats to move in with me and my two dogs. Okay, here's the show. Buried the lead there a little bit. Nice, nice. Congratulations. Your first home is both an exciting and terrifying day all at the same time. I have one word for him from a home ec standpoint, refinance.

When the rates come down. When the rates go down, absolutely. Look at that. Hey there, it's the NPR Politics Podcast. I'm Susan Davis. I cover politics. I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent. I'm Mara Liason, national political correspondent.

And Nikki Haley today dispelled any doubt that she might drop out of the race ahead of Saturday's Republican primary in her home state of South Carolina. South Carolina will vote on Saturday. But on Sunday, I'll still be running for president. I'm not going anywhere. Haley delivered that speech in Greenville, South Carolina. Domenico, all that said, Haley is expected to lose her home state to Donald Trump. So what was her message today for why she's going to stay in it? Well, she's not dropping out.

She said people deserve a real choice. She essentially also crossed off being vice president to Trump, denied that this was anything to do with an election in the future. But she's essentially making the gamble that she can do this now and continue to retain what she said is almost half of the Republican Party that hasn't voted for Trump. She noted that in Iowa and New Hampshire, Trump lost 49 percent in Iowa. He lost 46 percent of the total votes in New Hampshire. That's her case right now anyway, to say that that's pretty bad for an incumbent and that people deserve a real choice. Only three states have gone and Super Tuesday is coming up on March 5th and people deserve something that's not Trump. Mara, even if we take Nikki Haley at her word, she's not going to drop out.

She seemed to make a point that she would stay in it at least through Super Tuesday. She noted in the 10 days following South Carolina, another 21 states or territories will get to cast a vote. But this also begs the question, is there anywhere in this nominating calendar that Nikki Haley can win? I don't see it. And I don't think we're at the point where it's mathematically impossible, but it's getting there. One of the things that you have to ask is, what does Nikki Haley see as her future? I don't know if I agree with Domenico that she's absolutely crossed off being vice president. She certainly is making it harder and harder for Trump to pick her day by day. But

hanging in there has some value. There's something to being the runner up. It might position herself pretty well for a 2028 contest. Who knows what the Republican Party is going to look like by then? Will Trump have won? Will he have lost? We don't know. But she's not going anywhere. And she has certainly elevated her profile. And don't forget, not only did she win close to half of voters in some of these primaries, but also a certain number of those Haley voters said that they would never vote for Trump. So she has exposed some of his weaknesses for a general election. It's been so fascinating to me to watch her try to dance this line throughout the primary process of criticizing Trump, but not going so far into sort of the Chris Christie lane of running really

anti-Trump. And she did that again today. There are those who will try and paint me as never Trump. That's not who I am. Never have been. I supported Trump in 2016 and in 2020. I was proud to serve America in his cabinet. My purpose has never been to stop Trump at all costs. Domenico, she went on to say she thought Trump was the right president at the right time back then, but isn't right now. This isn't really a message that's been able to win much success with a Republican primary voter. No, and it's a little bit putting her head in the sand, to be honest, when she says that, you know, times have changed and Trump has changed to, you know, I mean, no, he hasn't. Donald Trump is Donald Trump and he's been Donald Trump. But the fact is she's still there.

She wants to do this. I think Mara was right a minute ago when she said that she didn't totally cross off being VP. She's sort of flirted with that line in that comment too that she's critical of Trump but that a primary, a longer primary would make them stronger. She did sort of say, I think we've all seen where I stand on vice president. And I should probably check my own political naivete on that because I need to be a little more jaded and realize that, oh, this has happened plenty of times before. When somebody doesn't fully cross it out, it doesn't mean they've completely crossed it out. And, you know, there's – She has never – there's nothing that she's said or done that couldn't be walked back.

And also, don't forget, there is a very high premium for him to pick a woman and or a person of color for his vice president. Under normal political times, we would say Nikki Haley is the obvious person to be vice president because she brings in these suburban women. She brings in independents and people who are skeptical of Trump. He needs to expand his support. I don't know if he wants her, but I think that she would do that if offered. Mara, it is interesting to me the timing of all of this is that she has been in the run-up to South Carolina focusing a lot on NATO, on Donald Trump's criticism of NATO, on his often nice commentary about Russia and Vladimir Putin. And in some ways, I do wonder if a contest like this will also amplify that sort of split in the Republican Party, the Republicans

who want the Republican Party of the past and a more aggressive American democracy movement abroad and a more Trumpian isolationist America first ideology. And maybe South Carolina will tell us something about that. Yeah, I think it does expose that. But don't forget, it's not just isolationist. It's not just NATO skeptical. It's Putin friendly. I mean, Donald Trump has, for an American politician, has been extraordinarily mind-bogglingly positive about Putin. And he has a longstanding animus against Ukraine. He got impeached the first time for putting pressure on Vladimir Zelensky to open an investigation against Joe Biden. He even held up military aid for that.

But, yes, to the extent there are still foreign policy hawks in the new Trump Republican Party, I think this is a potential problem for him. But I still think that this is not a primary that is about foreign policy. It's a primary that's about Trump. I mean, one of the marvels of 2024 to me, and when it comes to polling, at least, is when you look at Nikki Haley general election polling against Joe Biden. I can't remember the last time you saw a candidate like that blowing another candidate out of the water numerically. She leads him in some polls 12, 14, 16 points. And it hasn't seemed to have made a very compelling case to the Republican voter, even if their ultimate goal is to beat Joe Biden. They're

not actually picking the horse that has the best odds of beating Joe Biden. No, I mean, electability is not what they're banking on right now. It's really about who shares their values. And they don't buy those polls because they don't buy pollsters. And when they look at other polls that they selectively pick to appreciate, they see Trump doing well or better than Biden. So they are willing to put their money on the guy that they really trust more rather than kind of going back towards something that they see as traditionalist, quote, globalist or whatever you want to call it. They'd rather stick with the guy who got them there. And you do have this split inside the Republican Party on, you know, what is the heart of the Republican Party. And right now, a majority of it is Trump. All right, let's take a quick break, and we'll talk about Democratic primary politics when we get back. Support for this podcast and the following message come from the NPR Wine Club, which has generated over $1.75 million to support NPR programming.

Whether buying a few bottles or joining the club, you can learn more at nprwineclub.org slash podcast. Must be 21 or older the club. You can learn more at nprwineclub.org slash podcast. Must be 21 or older to purchase. And we're back. And the great state of Michigan will hold its primary next Tuesday. Joe Biden, of course, won Michigan in 2020, but it's a state where he now faces some unique political problems over his support of Israel and its war with Hamas in Gaza. Domenico, this is a state that is home to a very significant Arab American voting population. How big of a deal is this and how much has it divided the party there? Well, we'll see what happens because, you know, there have been

some other rumblings of people being upset with Biden in other states, like in New Hampshire, he wasn't even on the ballot and did really well. In South Carolina, you know, there was talk about a split between young black voters and older black voters, and he cleaned up there as well. So, you know, I think there's some question on what he got some 90 something percent of the vote. I was gonna say, you know, there's some question really on what is the the animus toward Biden? How big is it? And how much is, you know, does Biden really still have the heart of the Democratic Party? We were talking about Trump having some 60% of the party, maybe. Biden clearly has more than that right now. Although it's still, given the margins in this country, given the margins in a place like Michigan, every vote matters. And he's got to pay attention to younger voters in particular.

And, you know, he only won by, you know, less than a couple hundred thousand votes in Michigan. And Hillary Clinton lost by some 10,000 votes or so. So, you know, it matters. How much is it going to matter in a primary? We'll see if it gives him any kind of a black eye. There is an organized effort on the left. One of the people involved in that is Congresswoman Rashida Tlaib. She's the only Palestinian American in Congress. She's a Democrat. She is aligning with these groups that is urging Democratic primary voters to select uncommitted on their ballots as a way to sort of send a message to Biden. Obviously, Joe Biden's going to win Michigan. He's going to be the nominee. But it's a way to sort of

voice protest. Yeah. How much? It's a classic win Michigan. He's going to be the nominee. But it's a way to sort of voice protest. It's a classic protest vote. It doesn't matter. And they're not going to be terrible consequences. I think the real question is, how long does the war in Gaza go on? And how much of this anger towards Biden in Michigan remains when we get to November. Do Arab Americans and young Democrats who are angry at Joe Biden, would they prefer Donald Trump? I don't know. I doubt it. But that will be the choice for them at that time. But this goes to your point. One of the risks for Joe Biden, and it does seem to be in a state like Michigan, where the margins are so small, is what third party candidates potentially end up on the ballot in a state like Michigan. Yes. but staying home, voting for a third party, Democrats are going to be making a huge education effort to say that is the same thing as voting for Trump. It's just like the difference between 2016 and 2020.

In 2020, Democrats understood why voting for Jill Stein – Jill Stein may well be on the ballot again in November. Jill Stein may well be on the ballot. There may be lots of other people on the ballot in Michigan. And it's interesting because before the war in Gaza, I would have said that Michigan was one of the strongest blue wall states for Biden. Now I would say it's the most precarious. Yeah, I do think though that there is a strength when it comes to the other side of the support that Biden has, and that's with union members. You know, we've seen over the last several months, the head of the UAW, Sean Fain, really kind of come around with Biden, Biden being on picket lines with them. So, you know, there's this white working class

strength that Biden seems to have, but he's got to watch his younger left flank. I always think about Michigan, too, is going to be one of those states. I mean, this is going to play out in a lot of states, but acutely in a place like Michigan, where it's going to test organization and structure and how the parties vote. The Democratic Party there leans much more organized. They're going to have union backing and things like early voting, mail-in voting. And the Republican Party structurally is a mess, doesn't put and certainly doesn't put right now. It's a mess a mess right war with itself and and they have a nominee who you know has cast a lot of doubt on voting on anything but election day so there is sort of a structural imbalance in how the two parties and how voters

in the two parties tend to want to cast their that's right and we even saw it on a national level joe biden has a ton more money than donald trump at this point but remember back in 2016 um you know when people would call party headquarters and say, whoa, Democrats are so organized and the Republicans don't know what they're doing. And then they drive out to a rural area and they'd see 800,000 Trump signs and none for Hillary. And, you know, sometimes Trump's support is organic and it doesn't rely on traditional measures of strength like party structure. But I agree with you about Michigan. Michigan is a place where the Democratic Party is strong and embedded.

Honestly, across the country in a lot of the swing states, the Democratic Party has actually built up a much better ability to get out the vote and all of that, while Trump has a lot of grassroots sort of gut support. Mara, I just want to come back to something you mentioned about the importance of Michigan as part of the blue wall. I just want to sort back to something you mentioned about the importance of Michigan as part of the blue wall. I just want to sort of emphasize the point you're trying to make there and how significant you see Michigan to ultimately deciding the presidential race this year. I think it's really important.

Biden has to win the three blue wall states, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. And they often go together. They're filled with older, whiter voters than other states. But what's interesting is if he doesn't win any other battleground state and wins the three blue wall states, he still needs one more electoral college vote and he could get that in the Nebraska congressional district where Lincoln, the university can. This is like the New York tie horror scenario for us. Well, but it's not enough because Democratic states, older, deindustrialized northern Midwestern states have lost population. So they lose electoral votes. And that's what's happened. The three blue wall states are absolutely essential for Biden, but he still needs a little bit more. He doesn't have to win Georgia and Arizona and Nevada, but he has to get something else, maybe Nebraska. All right, that is a wrap for us today. We'll be

back in your feeds tomorrow. I'm Susan Davis. I cover politics. I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent. And I'm Mara Liason, national political correspondent. And thanks for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast.