The NPR Politics Podcast - Illegal Border Crossings Have Been Surprisingly Low

Episode Date: July 20, 2023

Despite concerns that the end of pandemic-era restrictions would lead to a big increase in the number of asylum seekers crossing into the U.S. over the country's southern border, the numbers have remained relatively low.The Biden administration points to a mobile app called CBP One that migrants must use to request appointments — and a change in rules about in-country asylum requests. Immigrant advocates and immigration hardliners both have objections to the administration's policies. This episode: political correspondent Susan Davis, White House correspondent Franco Ordoñez, and immigration correspondent Joel Rose.The podcast is produced by Elena Moore and Casey Morell. Our editor is Eric McDaniel. Our executive producer is Muthoni Muturi. Unlock access to this and other bonus content by supporting The NPR Politics Podcast+. Sign up via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org. Connect:Email the show at [e-mail] the NPR Politics Podcast Facebook Group.Subscribe to the NPR Politics Newsletter.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Hi, this is Aiden from Phoenix, Arizona, where I'm walking my dog at nine o'clock at night, and it's still 108 degrees outside. This podcast was recorded at 116 p.m. on Thursday, July 20th. Things may have changed by the time you hear it. Okay, here's your show. We were literally just talking about that. It's too hot. It's too hot. It's too hot for me. Bring a fan. Bring a fan. Hey there. It's the NPR Politics Podcast. I'm Susan Davis.

I cover politics. I'm Frank Ordonez. I cover the White House. And NPR correspondent Joel Rose is with us again. Hey, Joel. Hey, Sue. So you just got back from a trip to the southern border. The last time we had you on the podcast, we talked about how the Biden administration was expecting this big influx of people seeking asylum at the border

because the pandemic era restrictions were being lifted. How did that all pan out? That seems like a really long time ago. It did not pan out exactly like that. I mean, we saw a big influx of migrants right before the end of the pandemic restrictions. But then to the surprise of a lot of observers, the numbers really plummeted and have stayed relatively low for the past six weeks, two months since the Title 42 restrictions ended. We just got official numbers for June this week. And illegal border crossings were down a lot. They're down 40 percent from the month before. So it really has gone the other direction in a big way.

To what do they attribute that, especially because we were literally just talking about the heat. And obviously, in that particular region of the world, it is especially hot right now. And weather is one of the factors that can affect things like this, right? Historically, yeah. Summer is a time when the border crossing numbers usually drop. There are other changes, though, in terms of policy at the border that may be a big factor here. The Biden administration would certainly argue they are. One of the big ones is this new tool called CBP1, this mobile app that migrants use to apply

for an appointment at ports of entry, which is like the first step toward seeking asylum. So 40,000 appointment slots per month are being filled by migrants seeking asylum through the ports of entry instead of crossing illegally. So that's one big change. There's also this new rule that took effect in May that makes it much harder to get asylum if you cross illegally between the ports. So big policy changes there. Can we back up and talk about this app for a minute? Because this seems like a pretty new way of doing business at the border. So migrants would have to stay outside of the U.S. And does it also presume that migrants have access to smartphones? It's entirely app-based? Yes. And that's one of the complaints

that you hear from immigrant advocates is that it favors migrants with phones, with good phones, with better internet access. There's all kinds of inequity, they would say, baked into the system because it is so focused on having a phone and having the ability to use it. I mean, Joel, I've found your reporting really great when you're down there. I mean, you spoke to a lot of asylum seekers on the other side of the border as well. I mean, what are they saying? It's sort of a mix. I mean, some people are having success with the app.

I don't want to lose that. I mean, some people are having success, but a lot of people are waiting a really long time for an appointment. Initially, you know, there were only a thousand a day across the whole border. They've raised that number to about 1400 now, but the demand is way higher than that. There are still maybe a hundred thousand migrants within a few miles of the border waiting for a chance to seek asylum. So there's much more demand than there is supply. And so you just have a lot of migrants waiting and logging onto their phones every day, trying to get one of these kind of coveted appointments. And for those who aren't getting them quickly, it's really frustrating.

And they feel like they're in this very vulnerable situation. Just kind of reminds me a little bit of when the Trump administration kind of moved in. And obviously some of the advocates are comparing some of these policies to Trump administration policies. And at the beginning of the Trump administration, there was a very much a wait and see, like, let's see how these new policies from the Trump administration pan out. Do you get a sense that some of that is going on here where they're just waiting to see how these new Biden policies shape out and, you know, things could change? Yeah, I think that's a great point. When there's a big policy shift at the border, typically migrants do like take a step back and assess like, what does this mean for me? What am I hearing from my friends? What am I hearing on

social media? What am I seeing like happen in front of me? And it takes a little while for things to settle out. And I mean, I think administration officials also say that's what they think is happening, right? To some extent, migrants are just trying to understand this new landscape. And, you know, I think that's one reason why you don't see the administration jumping up and down about this big drop in crossings, because they know it might be temporary. They know it might just be, you know, people trying to understand what the new lay of the land is. We've talked a lot of numbers. You said maybe 40,000 people a month are getting processed through the app, 100,000 people waiting at the border. We also, in recent years, heard a ton about historic levels of people crossing the border. Where are we now in terms

of these numbers? It's been so politicized. Can you just sort of give us a broad view of the number of people we're talking about? Sure. I mean, right now, the numbers are low. The border crossings in June were the lowest since February of 2021. So basically, since the Biden administration took office. In between, though, we did see record numbers of apprehensions at the border in both 2021 and then again in 2022 that are only now starting to come down to sort of more historically normal levels. So when you hear that there were record numbers of migrant apprehensions during the Biden administration, that's true. There is a factual basis for that.

The fascinating thing about this new Biden policy is it's one of those policies that seems to have just made everyone angry. It's being challenged in the courts, both by immigration advocates and hardline immigration opponents. Explain some of those challenges and what their court process looks like. Yeah. Well, so the Biden administration's policy has carrots and sticks. And I know I've said this before, but it's true. It's really the best way to describe it. There's like the carrot of using CBP1 to apply legally. And then there's the stick of not crossing between the ports of entry or, you know, making it harder to get asylum if you cross in between.

So depending where you are in the immigration debate, you either hate the carrot or you hate the stick, you know? And so the immigration advocates are suing to block the stick, right? To get, to put this new asylum rule on hold. They had a crucial hearing in court just this week, and that judge could rule very soon, you know, on whether the new asylum restrictions hold up. On the other side, the immigration hardliners hate the carrot. And they feel like CBP1 is letting lots of migrants into the country who shouldn't be allowed into the country. So they're also going to court to try to challenge that part of it.

Those cases are still a little further away. But, yeah, there's something in this policy for everybody to hate. All right. On that note, we're going to take a quick break. And when we get back, we'll talk about the politics of immigration. Hey, a quick plug for our latest bonus episode. We're trying out a new trivia game. I have a couple of thoughts in my head. Ron, can I have a hint? Yes. Your hint is Asia.

I feel like that's not the most helpful hint. I agree. That's not the most helpful hint. No, I have a couple. I know the name. Check out that episode and find out how you could have a chance to play if you're an NPR Politics Podcast Plus listener. And we're back. And Franco, immigration has not been a central issue in the nation's political debate. But a lot of things are going to happen in the next year or so, including a presidential election that could change that. There's no question about that. I mean, I do think the administration

deserves credit. And look, I mean, it was just a few weeks ago or a couple months ago when we were talking about the end of Title 42, and we were all writing headlines about like this could cause major chaos. It's, you know, what's happened since has really kind of blunted that political talk. It's blunted, you know, pushback from Republicans. That said, there's just no way that this is not going to come back and be a big issue. And I would argue that it's going to be one of the most closely watched issues ahead of next year's presidential elections. And that's because Republicans are not going to allow it to be any other way. I mean, you have the Florida governor,

Ron DeSantis, one of the leading Republicans. You got obviously former President Donald Trump. These are huge issues for these leaders who are going to continue to bring it up. And it is such a salient issue for the Republican base because for Republicans, it's the same status quo. There's still an open border to them. action against leading members of the administration. The Department of Homeland Security Secretary Mayorkas, Alejandro Mayorkas, they're, you know, potentially likely to, you know, start impeachment proceedings because of their dissatisfaction with how the administration is handling the border. I think the immigration point is so important within the confines of Republican politics in particular. It doesn't animate Democrats the same way. But in a few weeks, we're going to have the first Republican presidential debate. And Donald Trump was an immigration hardliner. And anyone trying to get

any oxygen, you can't run to the center on immigration in a Republican primary. And it's pretty hard to run to the right of Donald Trump on immigration because he was already pretty tough on the issue. Yeah, no, they're and they're trying to run to the right. Explains a lot of DeSantis' positioning. Exactly. I mean, he's got some, it's pretty amazing some of the positions that Ron DeSantis is pushing. I mean, there's also obviously the flights of flying immigrants from Florida to states and cities run by liberal politicians. You know, I fully anticipate that this will be part of the Republican debates. This is going to be an issue. And I think that is

also another reason why the Biden administration has been kind of kept, been kind of tempered about this because they too know that this is going to likely to be a political issue. And the best strategy for them is for it not to be talked about, for it not to be a discussion, and for this not to be in the headlines. As a matter of policy, Joel, immigration had a potentially brief window maybe 10, 15 ago, in which there was real movement in Washington to try to do something big and comprehensive. And that collapsed. And now, you know, we talk all the time on this podcast about polarization. And immigration to me seems like one of those issues where the two parties have just moved further and further apart, not only to define what the problem is, but what do you do about the problem? Yeah, I think that's right. And there are some areas, I mean, if you look at polling, there are some areas, some sort of policy solutions in the middle that are fairly popular,

like doing something for DREAMers, like a pathway to citizenship for them. These are undocumented immigrants who were brought to the country as children. There's some other sort of Agriculture. Agriculture workers. Yeah, I agree with that. High-skilled workers. And border security. I mean, there's a lot of stuff on border security that actually pulls pretty well. And you could imagine some kind of deal. But I think the base of both parties would reject it. All right. Well, Joel, I'm sure we're going to have you back on this podcast to talk more about immigration as the election plays out. Thanks for doing it, as always. Sure. You bet.

I'm Susan Davis. I cover politics. I'm Frank Ordonez. I cover the White House. And thanks for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast.