The NPR Politics Podcast - Immigration Legislation Is A No Go

Episode Date: February 7, 2024

Senators released a new bipartisan immigration deal on Sunday. The agreement fell apart within days after Senate Republicans turned against it in a show of loyalty to Donald Trump. What will happen now? This episode: Senior White House correspondent Tamara Keith, congressional correspondent Claudia Grisales, and senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro.This podcast was produced by Jeongyoon Han, Casey Morell & Kelli Wessinger. Our editor is Erica Morrison. Our executive producer is Muthoni Muturi. Listen to every episode of the NPR Politics Podcast sponsor-free, unlock access to bonus episodes with more from the NPR Politics team, and support public media when you sign up for The NPR Politics Podcast+ at plus.npr.org/politics.Connect:Email the show at [e-mail] the NPR Politics Podcast Facebook Group.Subscribe to the NPR Politics Newsletter.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Hi, this is Steve, and I'm coming to you live from the frigid and icy banks of Swong Creek in the wilds of Taney County, Missouri. This podcast was recorded at 1.37 p.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday, February 7th. Things may have changed by the time you hear it. Enjoy the show. I may have a blanket on my lap right now. I love it. And it's not even that cold. Hey there, it's the NPR Politics Podcast. I'm Tamara Keith. I cover the White House. I'm Claudia Grisales. I cover Congress. And I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent. Remember the bipartisan Senate compromise on the border we've been talking about for weeks? Negotiators finally unveiled the language on

Sunday. Today is Wednesday, and we can safely say it is dead. The bill was negotiated with the support of the top Republican in the Senate, Mitch McConnell. But former President Donald Trump trashed it and essentially made killing the bill a loyalty test for congressional Republicans. Claudia, you have been covering this. How did we get here? Right. It was quite the journey, several months long of negotiations. There was a core group of bipartisan senators working on this plan. And they were tight lipped in terms of the provisions, but there was a lot of confidence and a lot of support there from both sides of the aisle in terms of the leaders, for example, Democratic leader and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer,

as well as the Republican leader Mitch McConnell. But when they did finally release that text Sunday, by then, the dice was rolled in terms of Republicans turning on the plan. And as you mentioned, Trump played a big role here. House Republicans took up that mantle in terms of saying this bill would not get a vote in the House. And that seemed to have this domino effect on the Senate side with Senate Republicans soon following suit. And so what we saw play out over the course of just a few hours was Senate Republicans turning and saying they would vote no on this key procedural vote today to shut down any more discussion on this bipartisan deal. And Arizona Senator Kyrsten Sinema was one of these negotiators. She's an independent who generally hangs out with the Democrats.

But on NPR's All Things Considered, she shared her disappointment that the border security bill is really dead. What's been disappointing to see today are that the very folks who said that this was so critical and that had to happen are now saying that they would rather not actually address the problem at all. Claudia, remind us what are some of the things that this bill would have done? Right. So it was $118 billion bill. So it would have, in exchange for aid for Ukraine, for Israel and other allies, provided new provisions for the border. For example, allowing the president to have emergency authority to shut down the border, in essence, if the threshold of migrants was hit, if a certain benchmark was hit. For example, Sinema described it as approaches. If up to 5,000 approaches were hit, then the president could have that authority to shut down

the border. They were also streamlining and narrowing the asylum process where it would be a quicker process, for example, for anyone going through it and allowing work authorizations for those who were awaiting this process. So it was a big victory for Republicans to get these kind of conservative measures in this bill. At one point, just a few weeks ago, McConnell referenced it as the best deal they could get, even compared to an all Republican controlled Congress and White House, that they would not get a better deal than this, than the one that his appointed negotiator, this is Oklahoma Senator James Lankford, and other bipartisan members of this core group negotiated.

Domenico, this was not a Democratic dream bill by any stretch. Didn't Republicans get what they wanted? Yeah, they did. But, you know, former President Trump would not have gotten what he wanted because he didn't want to give President Biden a win here because Biden only has a 29 percent approval rating when it comes to his handling of immigration. According to our NPR PBS NewsHour Marist poll that's out today, Republicans have a 12-point advantage on which party would do better at handling this issue. And it also rises to the top as the main issue that Republicans have and the biggest motivator then for them to be able to go vote. So Trump didn't want this taken off the table. I kind of doubt that it would have been taken off the table or Biden would have lost any of the

blame. But the point is Congress is supposed to try to solve problems. And while Republicans and Democrats think very differently about what those priorities should be. The priority here for Democrats was getting Ukraine and Israel aid passed. And then the concession was all of this border security money and detail. And Trump just undercut it in one true social post. Well, he also gave a speech earlier than that in Nevada where he said, blame me. As the leader of our party, there is zero chance I will support this horrible open borders betrayal of America. It's not going to happen.

I noticed that and I'll fight it all the way. I noticed a lot of the senators, a lot of the senators are trying to say respectfully they're blaming it on me. I said, that's OK. Please blame it on me, please. And it looks like he's getting what he wanted. A quick fact check here, Claudia. He describes it as an open borders betrayal. Is is that accurate? And is that the view held by many Republicans who opposed it? No, it depends on which chamber you're looking at. You know, especially during the negotiation, Senate Republicans seem to be very much on board with this plan and did not see it as some sort of open borders plan. Just the opposite. They were very much in support of it. There were some House Republicans who were speaking out against it, even as it text was being written, and it was not being released. And even more so after it was released, for example, House Speaker Mike Johnson said it was

worse than he even expected, for example. But no, that is not a fair characterization to say it was an open borders betrayal of America, because it really did include a lot of conservative provisions in there. Yeah, I mean, let's talk about, you know, the truth serum here that Congressman Troy Nels of Texas had last month when he was on CNN. And he said, whether he'd support this kind of bill, let me tell you, I'm not willing to do too damn much right now to help a Democrat and to help Joe Biden's approval rating. I will not help the Democrats try to improve this man's dismal approval ratings. I'm not going to do it. Why would I? And I think that in an election year, that's exactly what we're seeing. Well, there was a whole lot of saying the quiet part out loud. But Claudia,

I have a question because, you know, in theory, yes, the House is all in for Trump. But senators have some level of independence or some greater level of independence. They appeared, at least for a time, to be willing to make this sort of deal. So what happened? Does Trump have this power over senators too, or is there something else going on here? Yeah, I think with the failure of this bipartisan deal, I think it really exposed that Senate Republicans are struggling to hold on to that independence they once held. Even while Trump was president, they would be able to push against some of his demands. And we're seeing a lot more of that middle leaving the Senate,

for example, Mitt Romney of Utah and others who are saying I've had enough. The middle is just getting eroded. And we're seeing that play out for Senate Republicans at this moment, especially as Trump, you know, is the lead Republican contender to be the struggle there for Senate Republicans going forward is rediscovering whether they have that ability to function independently from Trump going forward. Okay, so Trump has been very negative on Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell for quite some time now. But McConnell has pushed back. McConnell has exerted remarkable power over the Senate or over his part of the Senate. Is he losing that? I think this was another moment where he and his grasp over his conference

appears to be loosening here. Because McConnell once did have such a strong leadership hand over his conference. And he was even asked this week, did you misread your conference when it came to pushing for this border security deal? He said, no, I was just following the directives of my members. However, this is a really difficult moment for him because the conference went left, he went left in their direction, they went right, just making all these turns. And it really has left him in the dust. It's left a lot of people raising more questions about him. And of course, we know he's had some health issues in recent months, which do not help.

And we know there are other senators who are vying to take his spot soon. All right. Well, we're going to pause there and we will be right back after the break. And we're going to pause there and we will be right back after the break. And we're back. And former President Trump said he was happy to take the blame for this bipartisan deal going down in flames. And yesterday in a speech at the White House, President Biden made it clear he is more than willing to blame him.

All indications are this bill won't even move forward to the Senate floor. Why? A simple reason. Donald Trump. Because Donald Trump thinks it's bad for him politically. Therefore, he doesn't, even though it helps the country, he's not for it. All right, Domenico, can President Biden successfully make this argument? Probably not. I mean, I think he tried there, but even that clip was not the most succinct that we've heard of Biden. And he's never been a great messenger. He's obviously he's 81 years old. Some of the concerns people have about his age within his party come from the fact that they don't have a strong messenger at the top. And we've seen Republicans way more united on the message, even though Democrats have better

feelings about their own party than Republicans do. For example, in the poll that we just put out, it was something like 77% of Democrats had a favorable opinion of their own party. Only 53% of Republicans had a favorable view of their own party. 26% overall said they have a favorable view of Republicans, which shows you some of the Republicans in disarray. But the problem for Democrats is they have a messenger who isn't really able to consolidate concisely the kind of message that the party can rally behind. Claudia, we've seen congressional Democrats jump on this too, though. They're out there saying that this going down is all the fault of Republicans and that Democrats are the ones who are willing to address immigration.

How are you seeing that play out on the Hill? Right. I think you're you're correct there in terms of Democrats continuing this kind of messaging that Biden presented this week, which is blaming Republicans saying they need to grow a spine. So quoting Biden there in terms of saying that they need to make decisions without this blind loyalty to Trump. And we're definitely moving into a new blame game here in terms of the border. Republicans really had this as a major talking point when they pointed at Democrats. Now Democrats have a new dimension to their arguments, which is we tried. So it's going to be a very intense part of the election year debates that we'll see coming forward. And for all of the vulnerabilities that Biden has and that we've seen repeatedly with younger voters, with non-white voters, where they're lagging in approval rating for him,

the one place where he is doing well and where Democrats are doing well is in the suburbs and holding up pretty well there. And there's a place where this argument can do well and resonate. If Republicans don't appear to be the party that wants to govern, to solve problems, that's going to get them in trouble in a lot of these congressional districts that are swing districts and potentially in places that could decide the 2024 election. Well, Claudia, let's talk about everything that was in this compromise. You know, it wasn't just addressing the border. It was Israel, Ukraine funding. What happens now? Is that all just not going to happen? Well, there are some members in both chambers talking about going back to the drawing board and see if there is a way to still tackle this. We are hearing from members who think there's a second shot here,

but there's a lot of skepticism. If they negotiated this initial deal over four months and they failed to get the votes they needed, even out of the chamber where it was negotiated primarily, then there's not a lot of hope that they can do this on a second try. That said, yesterday, House Republicans tried to push through a piece of aid to Israel separately that also did not move forward. So it's really unclear how all of these issues, including Ukraine, could be addressed going forward. It's going to be a big challenge. Last night, House Republicans tried to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. In theory, could have been an easy vote for House Republicans. It's a mostly symbolic effort to allow

Republicans to take out their ire on someone, to condemn the Biden administration's handling of the U.S.-Mexico border. But, Claudia, it failed, and in a pretty dramatic fashion. Yeah, it was really stunning. I was in the chamber last night, and we really had no idea which way this vote would go. We knew about two no's, but Mike Gallagher of Wisconsin, a Republican, also a chairman in the House, it was unclear which way he was going to go publicly. He was not saying. And so there was a very dramatic moment on the floor, a lot of Republicans surrounding Gallagher trying to convince him to be a yes on this impeachment vote. But he said no. And so this

is a huge failure for them. They've been talking about this impeachment even before they took control of the House chamber, because there's also been talk of impeaching President Biden, but Mayorkas was the low hanging fruit. They would talk about it as if this is the doable impeachment, but not last night. They were missing one member. This is Majority Leader Steve Scalise, who is out due to illness. He's fighting cancer, but he's due to be back next week, possibly. So they could try again. It was a tie last night. So it's possible they try and bring it up again. But there's a lot of maybes here, and it's unclear if they can do it. Okay, so just for our audience, because this is amazing. The margin of error is so small here.

The difference between Democrats and Republicans, the size of the of error is so small here. The difference between Democrats and Republicans, the size of the Republican majority is so small that there was one Democratic member where it wasn't sure whether he was going to make it or not. Tell us about that. And he is essentially, him being there is essentially the reason this failed. Exactly. Because it was this tie vote, 215 to 215. Now, there were three votes lined up last night. The first one was an unrelated vote. In Al Green of Houston, a Democrat did not vote. We were unclear at that time what was going on. And he essentially was not expected to come on the floor, unbeknownst to some of us at that moment. He had been in the hospital that day. So he was able to arrive in very dramatic fashion.

He said the Democratic leader, Hakeem Jeffries, sent transportation for him there and back. He was wearing hospital scrubs during this process. Republicans had accused him and Democrats of him hiding and to try and use that strategy in terms of messing with the numbers, thinking maybe we do have one vote against them. Al Green's not here. And even House Speaker Mike Johnson mentioned it today. He said, I thought one of the Democrats was in the hospital. Well, surprise, he was not at that moment. He showed up. He's also a voting member, right? So, I mean, if he was in the hospital and wanted to show up, he could show up. I mean, the fact that Mike Johnson, the speaker, couldn't count the votes and really know and bank on the fact that he had enough, not depending on the fact that you had a Democrat in the hospital.

I mean, that tells you how razor thin these majorities are. And really, I mean, the story of the last 15 years with the Republican Party have been weak speakers. And my question as we close out this pod is, is Congress basically done governing for the calendar year 2024? Is this it? Well, it's possible they address the spending issue. Outside of that, it seems that they may be done for the rest of the year, especially as the election year takes hold of all of the oxygen in the room. You know, it is worth taking a step back to sort of realize the fact is, like our poll showed, immigration is the number one issue. It's been the binding gel of the Republican Party on culture issues

for the better part of the last decade. And this has been their top priority to say, we need more border security. We need more agents. We need more deportations. We need to curtail asylum. They were given all of that and still couldn't get it over the finish line, couldn't agree to it because the head of their party essentially told them not to. That is not a good faith negotiating partner and really makes it difficult to see how and what Republicans would do if they're in charge and what they would actually do to govern. And that is the show for today. I'm Tamara Keith. I cover the White House.

I'm Claudia Grisales. I cover Congress. And I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent. And thank you for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast.