The NPR Politics Podcast - Is Kevin McCarthy On The Brink?

Episode Date: January 7, 2023

The California Republican was able to win over some of his detractors today as balloting for the Speaker of the House entered a fourth day. However, neither he — nor any other candidate — has won enough votes to take the position, leaving the House in continued limbo. This episode: political correspondent Susan Davis, congressional correspondent Deirdre Walsh, White House correspondent Franco Ordoñez, and senior political editor & correspondent Domenico Montanaro.In the event a speaker is elected late Friday or overnight Saturday, we plan to be in your feeds Saturday morning with the latest.This episode was produced by Elena Moore and Casey Morell. It was edited by Casey Morell. Our executive producer is Muthoni Muturi. Research and fact-checking by Katherine Swartz. Thanks to Lexie Schapitl.Unlock access to this and other bonus content by supporting The NPR Politics Podcast+. Sign up via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org. Connect:Email the show at [e-mail] the NPR Politics Podcast Facebook Group.Subscribe to the NPR Politics Newsletter.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Hi, this is Amy from Dayton, Ohio. I'm here with my foster dog, Cokie, who yesterday was the founding mother of a litter of seven puppies. This episode was recorded at 5.57 p.m. on Friday, January 6th. Things may have changed by the time you hear it. Like, maybe we'll have a little Nina Totenpup, an Ari Shaparo, or a Mandelita Elbarco. Okay, here's the show. I don't know if she knows this, but our own Tamara Keith had a dog named Cokie over the late, great Cokie Roberts as well. Yep. I am actually in the market for a puppy, so.

Well, you just had some name ideas thrown at you, a little inspiration. Hey there, it's the NPR Politics Podcast. I'm Susan Davis. I cover politics. I'm Deirdre Walsh. I cover Congress. And I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent. And four days into the fight to elect a speaker of the House, there's been a breakthrough. The House convened at noon today. And on the 12th ballot, California Republican Kevin McCarthy finally won over a block of his detractors. 14 of the 20-odd people holding

out against him finally voted for him after agreeing to a number of concessions offered by McCarthy to win their support. But it's not over yet. No member-elect having received a majority of the votes cast, the speaker has not been elected. On the 13th ballot, McCarthy landed at 214 votes. 212 votes went to Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries, and still six detractors voted for Ohio Republican Jim Jordan, a McCarthy ally who doesn't want the job. The House then adjourned until 10 p.m. Eastern tonight, at which point McCarthy predicted he will get the votes he needs to win. I think it's very positive. We're going to get it done tonight. The magic number of votes can shift depending on who shows up and if anyone votes present.

But roughly two to four more votes are probably needed for McCarthy. At least two McCarthy supporters, Ken Buck of Colorado and Wesley Hunt of Texas, are en route back to Washington to cast their ballots for him tonight. Deirdre, the talk on the Hill all last night and through this morning was about this potential breakthrough. I know that we talked on the podcast this week about some of these concessions and the deal. Where did it land? Well, it's still being called a framework and there's really no paper. Even a lot of House Republicans say they haven't seen the details. They were briefed on a conference call this morning before votes started. But in general, it's a lot of the concessions that these anti-establishment Republicans have been asking for.

It's a mix of rules changes to how bills are debated on the House floor, to how they will deal with spending. That's sort of their big focus is trying to rein in federal spending. There's discussions about a vow to balance the budget in 10 years, but we don't have all the details on that. There is some talk about a vow to not allow a clean increase of the debt limit, but there's not a lot of details on that. But some of the things we do know about are, you know, rules like the one that would change the threshold for how many members are needed to propose a resolution to oust a speaker. The current House Republican rule is five, and it's now going to be one. So it's sort of a mix of actual concrete changes that have to be

put into writing in the House rules. And some of it is just handshake agreements, like, sure, I'll agree to bring up a term limits bill, which is something that Ralph Norman of South Carolina has asked for. It's sort of good faith and part of it. It is. And as one after the other, some of these flippers announced their votes for McCarthy who had been voting against him. They prefaced their vote saying, in good faith negotiations, if the deal holds, sort of warning, like, if they find out something they don't like, they could change their votes. But there's no indication that that's going to happen. It seems to be that the momentum has definitely shifted in McCarthy's favor in a big way. Now, Deirdre, we don't do this job because

we like math, but I think we have to talk about the math just a little bit. We don't know the precise number, but we know he needs somewhere in the orbit of two to four more votes, most likely, assuming everyone shows back up. But he's got a couple of detractors that it's hard for me to see flipping those votes. Matt Gaetz of Florida, Lauren Boebert of Colorado, Bob Good of Virginia. I mean, these are people that have described themselves as never Kevin. So what's the orbit of the gettable vote look like right now? I really don't know. I mean, because there were people like Paul Gosar and Scott Perry who made pretty, you know, firm pronouncements about I can't see how I could ever get there. Even Ralph Norman, who we heard from, said yesterday, you know, it would sort of take a

miracle. So I don't know. I think that there is a lot of pressure. And I think one House Republican ally of McCarthy's, Don Bacon, was saying to me last night, he thought the deal got half of the 20 and there would be this immense pressure once the dam broke to get the rest. So it sort of seemed like that was starting to happen on the floor. But I agree with you. I'm sort of really curious to see how you get the last couple of votes. But I mean, those people have a lot of leverage if they really want something. Yeah. I mean, Domenico, McCarthy has had to concede at so many points to potentially win this, including things that he once called a red line that he could never support. For instance, allowing the motion to vacate to go back to just one member being able to offer it. And I think it begs the question, is it worth it, right? What does the speakership mean if he's had to chip away at all the powers of the office that make it capable of being an effective speaker? Well, how do you measure a man's ambition?

You know, I mean, I really think that this is obviously a it matters to the country, these kinds of concessions just indicate more and more not just that the speakers to is having to cut spending, most likely, from other pieces of the government to be able to even increase that debt limit. And that's an argument we'd heard repeatedly from lots of Tea Party members when they were first sworn in and they had this fight a decade ago over the debt limit. They are being pretty cagey about how they're handling the debt limit in this deal. So I should say that we don't have all the details. Yeah. Yeah. Well, clearly, though, they want to cut spending, they want to choke government, they want to make it smaller, they want to spend less. That's been a thing that they've been talking about repeatedly over and over, whether it's whether it's defense spending, or discretionary domestic spending, all those

things are going to be on the table, you're much more likely to see McCarthy have to deal with them than he is likely to deal with moderate Democrats, because that's what cost John Boehner his job, essentially, the last time when he stepped down in 2015. But here's the thing, though, you know, even if you can forecast a scenario where 218 Republicans stick together on spending bills or on the debt limit, they still have a Democratic Senate and a Democrat in the White House. You know, like they seem to have in some ways they have bound McCarthy to all these promises that aren't really, you know, capable when the person that you're dealing with on the other end of the negotiating table is Joe Biden and Chuck Schumer. They also jeopardize a lot of these House Republicans who just got

elected from swing seats. Right. They're going to put them on the record if they are serious about the kinds of spending cuts that they're talking about for probably slashing Social Security and Medicare. I don't know that they can defend those votes very red districts. Their constituents want them to fight over a lot of these things. They don't particularly care if the government is shut down. They've shown a willingness to do that in the past. And I think that this is going to really raise the stakes, if it hasn't already, for the congressional elections in 2024. Because imagine if this group had this kind of leverage in 2020, would we have had certified elections, the very thing that caused the January 6th insurrection in the first place? It's a very scary place for democracy and where the country could be headed. You brought up January 6th, and obviously it is January 6th. And to me, the timing of this is just sort of of it's fascinating in that two years ago today, almost to this minute, you know, Kevin McCarthy was under siege in the Capitol.

He was calling then President Donald Trump, asking for help to call off the attack on the Capitol. Two years later to the day, he's potentially on the verge of being speaker of the House. I mean, the career trajectory. I don't know if two years ago we would have thought this was possible, Deirdre, and yet here we are. No, it's just bizarre. And it's also just bizarre being in the building today with these commemorations going on and members, you know, putting out all these statements. It just sort of seems like Democrats are commemorating the two-year anniversary and Republicans are pretty much ignoring it. I did think it was interesting that Ralph Norman talking to reporters after that 12th ballot

in which he voted for McCarthy invoked January 6th, but did it in this sort of, I don't want to say positive way, but that this was a good thing to happen on today of all days. For us coming together at this time on January 6th was huge. Just a fascinating way to look at January 6th, at least from the conservative perspective, especially as someone who voted against the election results. Well, it's hardly coming together, you know, with the entire Congress. And it was interesting to hear that McCarthy said that the fact that it's taken this long shows that we've learned how to govern. I mean, he's learned how to govern. I think that's what they call spin. I think that's a pretty textbook definition of how to

spin something in your favor. Well, his other spin was about changing this rule that would allow just one lawmaker to oust the speaker, saying that's the way it was before Nancy Pelosi was Speaker. But that's also what led ultimately to John Boehner resigning. And look how well that turned out. Well, and if he's learned how to govern this way, then the things that it portends for the future is having to deal with and concede to the far right. All right, let's take a quick break. Dear Joe, we're going to let you go for a minute. Catch your breath. We'll have you back later. Domenico, stick around.

And we're back and we're joined by White House correspondent Franco Ardonia. Hey, Franco. Hey there. So President Biden gave an address yesterday on border security. The White House plans to reduce unlawful entry into the United States and increase resources related to immigration. My message is this. If you're trying to leave Cuba, Nicaragua, or Haiti, or have agreed to begin a journey to America, do not, do not just show up at the border. Stay where you are and apply legally from there. Starting today, if you don't apply through the legal process, you will not be eligible for this new parole program.

He's also planning to visit the U.S.-Mexico border next week as part of a trip out west to meet with the leaders of Canada and Mexico. Franco, before we get into the president's address, could you just give us some perspective on how big of a problem the U.S.-Mexico border is right now in terms of border security. Yeah, I mean, it's a big, big challenge. I mean, U.S. authorities have made more than 2 million immigration arrests on the border over, you know, the last year's amount of time. I mean, that's the first time in modern times that they've exceeded this number. So, I mean, we're talking very record numbers. What is also interesting is that the kind of migration has changed and the dynamics have changed where, you know, back in the day, it was more Mexican migrants. And then over the last, then it switched to Central American migrants.

Now we're seeing a lot of Venezuelan, Cuban, Haitian, Nicaraguan, and even Ecuadorian migrants. So it's a different kind of fabric of migrants that are coming in, and in big, big numbers. I mean, Republicans in particular have been very critical of lack of border enforcement. What did Biden say in terms of how he plans to address this going forward? Well, he was pretty firm about what his plans were. I mean, he was very politically critical of Republicans. But at the same time, he announced plans for some significant expansions of enforcement on the border. Specifically, he's expanding a pandemic era program that will allow the United States, allow the Biden administration to expel Nicaraguan, Cuban, and Haitian immigrants who tried to cross the border illegally.

He's also going to expand some legal pathways for those groups, as many as 30,000 migrants from those countries and Venezuela. I should note that this expansion is based on a plan that they implemented a few months ago for Venezuelans specifically, so it adds those three additional countries. But in regards to the allowing greater legal pathways, they really are small numbers in consideration of the enforcement measures that he's implementing. So it's a big effort to kind of stem that tide of migration. He's also promising more resources on the border to hire more border agents and just get more help there to address this issue. But it is a big change outlining Cuba, Nicaragua, and Haiti. You know, for so long, we'd heard about El Salvador, Honduras, and Guatemala as where people were coming from.

And this has just been an issue that has really, as we've seen, not just with this speaker vote in Congress, but with negotiations and how the Republican Party in particular has changed over the last 15 years. This has really become an issue where negotiations just haven't been possible. It is a big issue. It's one that seemed like there was a potential path to a solution almost a decade ago in 2013 when more than two-thirds of the Senate was on board with it, but the rug was pulled out by House Republicans. Really, this is an issue that has become a cultural political touchstone for Republicans where negotiations just aren't seen as possible. And it's a major problem, one that a lot of towns are dealing with, overrun with

not having enough resources, and not something that the federal government appears able and ready to fix. Domenico, do you see the timing of this is notable? Because Republicans have made immigration a central focus of their argument against Joe Biden's leadership for the better part of the past two years. And I think it's fair to say that the White House hasn't focused as much on immigration as their critics would like them to. And so the timing of this with a new Congress coming in seems to suggest that the president's trying to get ahead of some of this criticism, especially as, you know, there are some legitimate criticisms about the handling of the US-Mexico border. Well, yeah, and there's been a lot of criticism, frankly as, you know, there are some legitimate criticisms about the handling of the US-Mexico border.

Well, yeah, and there's been a lot of criticism, frankly, from allies of the president, border Democrats in particular, who've said that they think that the White House hasn't been dealing with this, hasn't focused on it as strongly. The White House hasn't been talking about it as firmly. You know, when this has been sort of relegated to the corners of conservative media and talking points, it seemed like the White House was fine with somewhat not ignoring the situation but making Biden the principal spokesperson. We've seen certainly the Department of Homeland Security head Alejandro Mayorkas talking about this. The vice president has gone down to the border previously, but none of it has really seemed to fix the issue. And again, we have to come back to the fact that there really hasn't

been a federal fix to the fact that there's a massive backlog in the courts. And I think that the White House sees this as something that is going to become, if not already a principal issue, but going to become something that a lot of people start to focus on. Yeah, I mean, I just add that, you know, like, this is Biden's first visit to the border as president, is a signal that he's now has to kind of face this issue. As, you know, Domenico is noting, you know, this was mostly talked about in kind of conservative circles. Yes, there were some Democrats who were wanting Biden to do more, but it didn't become like such a big issue, for example, in the midterms as many of us expected it to be. This has always been a vulnerable spot for Biden, but he didn't have to confront it as much as was expected.

But now with the new House coming in and promising to make more hay out of this. Biden's got to address it. And I think you heard that in his speech, not only in his words, saying that this is a hard issue and we have to deal with, but you also heard it in the tenor of his voice and how subdued he was in acknowledging how emotional and difficult and politically challenging it is. Franco, the White House also said that some of these measures will need to be implemented in partnership with Mexico. The president's going to meet with leaders of Canada and Mexico soon. Obviously, immigration border issues are going to be on that agenda. But is there other significant issues between the three countries that need to be addressed in this

meeting? Yeah, definitely. I mean, this visit to the border on the way, they are bringing it up right before the North American Leaders Summit. All show indicate how important immigration will be to these talks. Obviously, Mexico is a key partner in this effort. You know, Biden talked about how, you know, U.S. Border Patrol officers are already embedded with Mexican patrols, you know, trying to detect U.S. smuggling operations. So it's going to be a big part. But in addition to that, obviously, fentanyl and other drug issues, counter-narcotics

will be another big issue that they're going to be discussing. There's a lot going on. All right, Franco, thanks so much for joining us today. We're going to take a quick break, and when we're back, it's time for Can't Let It Go. And we're back, and back, Deirdre. Hey there. So it's time to end the show like we do every week with Can't Let It Go, the part of the show where we talk about the things from the week that we just can't stop talking about, politics or otherwise. Deirdre, I'm going to ask you first what you can't let go. But since we have not let you out of the Capitol in four days, I'm imagining it might have something to do with what's been going on up there. Yeah, I have really been trapped here. So is it bad pizza? There's a lot

of that just sort of take out everywhere and no real good food in the basement. But anyway, the thing I can't let go of is the kids and the pets in the chamber. So as a parent and a pet owner who doesn't like to see a cute puppy or a cute baby, but we've been here for four days, guys. Like, shouldn't these poor children be allowed to take a nap or go home? Or go to school? Yeah. Well, at the first day, it's traditional for members, especially new members, to bring their young kids or grandkids on the floor. And particularly dressed in their Sunday best. Oh, yeah. Usually the kids are dressed like they're going for like the full Christmas family photo look. They do because there's a photo op and they've set up the area for this family photo op day

after day after day. And obviously never been able to use it. But as we go day by day, there's fewer and fewer kids. Now there's just been some really little babies. One House Democrat, Jimmy Gomez, has been wearing this baby carrier with his little new son, Hodge, in it and has been tweeting all these pictures. He's been changing the baby on the floor of the Democratic cloakroom. He's been doing interviews on Zoom with the baby next to him. He's been feeding the baby. There's a really funny picture of his baby with Joaquin Castro's baby next to each other in the cloakroom saying they are future prom dates. I mean, they're very tiny babies. Nancy Mace didn't bring a child, but she brought a really little puppy

and she walked it on a leash into the speaker's lobby. And then I was like, is she going to bring that on the floor? And she picked up the puppy, went in and cast her vote for Kevin McCarthy. Because apparently she said, too, because dogs are not allowed on the floor of the house. I've learned this. But that she said because they're not sworn in yet and because there's no rules package, there's no rule to break. So she brought her dog on. Yeah. True story. Before the speaker vote started, neither of those babies was born. Just kidding. It feels like how long it's gone on. Anyway,

I can't imagine having to be responsible for kids and pets, both of which I have as well, and have to try to work while all the cameras of C-SPAN are stuck on you. I imagine this week there has been a lot of impatient spouses and children who traveled to DC for the photo op and are like not amused by the speaker drama. No chicken nuggets and mac and cheese, not enough of them. Yeah, I will say so far I feel like the babies have been pretty well behaved, maybe more than the members. So, Sue, what can't you let go of? My can't let go this week is kind of related because obviously we've been obsessing about this event. But the thing I can't let go this week is C-SPAN untamed.

Another loophole in this weird week we've lived is that, and I don't know, Deirdre, we know this well, but I don't know if the broader public knows this, but when you watch C-SPAN, the cameras in the chamber are controlled by the government. The House and Senate are in control of what you can see, which is normally when you watch C-SPAN, you just get to see the speaker, the main rostrums or the speakers or the wide shot. There's only only a couple shots you normally see. But because we're in this weird in-between where the house hasn't constituted yet, C-SPAN is allowed to have more free reign of the cameras. They are in control of the cameras. The only other time this ever happens is on State of the Union when they allow network cameras and TV cameras to move more freely.

But the use of these free reign camera has given us so many great images of all the drama that has played out on the floor that we don't we wouldn't have seen otherwise if if if the rules had been instituted quickly and that they would lock the cameras back down. It's been amazing. C-SPAN has also been noting this all week long throughout their coverage. What you're seeing on the House floor is courtesy of C-SPAN camera folks who are in charge of the cameras right now. What you're seeing, all these conversations on the House floor are courtesy of C-SPAN being in control of the chamber. That is what's called swagger at C-SPAN. I was going to say that's gleeful for C-SPAN being in control of the chamber. That is what's called swagger at C-SPAN. And I was going to say, that's gleeful for C-SPAN.

That is gleeful for C-SPAN. It's amazing, like the huddles, like the odd groups of people that are like clustered in the back wall and you can see and you're like, I mean, I'm in the chamber and it's really hard for me sometimes to see where they are. But when I walk out and flip on C-SPAN in my booth, I was like, oh, my God, what are they saying? Yeah, they were all up in the drama all week and I loved it.

I thought about a couple of the moments with Matt Gaetz sort of in heated discussion with some members. Jim Jordan today, I saw him blowing raspberries with his head in his arm on the back railing. And then there was this viral moment where Paul Gosar was talking to Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. And I mean, he's the one who tweeted out this anime video depicting killing her and President Biden. So this was just like one of those moments and she's kind of standing there like, you know, just patiently nodding. And, you know, she revealed that he was asking her whether there was any Democratic plan to potentially subvert everything and help McCarthy and she assured him absolutely not. Domenico, what can't you let go of this week? Well, this is definitely otherwise but I think it's the thing that's been consuming a lot of the country and it's kind of both the worst and best story of the week.

And that's DeMar Hamlin, the Buffalo Bills safety, who, you know, collapsed on the field after what appeared to be a routine hit on Monday Night Football. And CPR was done, the ambulance had to come out on the field, they canceled the game, something had never been done or seen before in the NFL, really saw the emotional side from a lot of players. And the real positive thing this week is that he's now awake, breathing on his own, squeezing his family's hands, and actually delivered a message to his team. And they said the first thing he said when he woke up was, did we win? Who won the game? That's amazing. Yeah. And he's a really good dude just outside of football. He's one of these guys who is from

Pittsburgh. He's been really involved in his community. He set up a foundation, the Chasing Ems Foundation, where he runs these Toys for Tots campaigns to try to get kids toys in his community. And his foundation, Chasing M's, what's interesting about it is he had a GoFundMe up to kind of try to raise $2,500. Now that all this has happened, it's over 8 million. Wow. That's great. That is great. Well, that's a good note to end this week on, I think, guys.

That is a wrap for us today. I also want to just personally, point of host personal privilege here, say thank you, Deirdre. Thank you, Domenico. We have done this podcast together all week long. We got down.

Nobody else wanted to do it. It's been a pleasure. We're the three best friends that anybody ever had. There you go. And before we go, a special, another special shout out to two people who are leaving our team today. And before we go, a special, another special shout out to two people

who are leaving our team today. Our amazing intern, Catherine Swartz, who is joining the team at Here and Now for the next couple months. And our Croc fellow, Juma Say, who's heading to NPR's national desk. They've been key parts of the machine that keeps this podcast running. And we are very grateful for their hard work and wish them luck. Our executive producer is Mathoni Mottori. Our editor is Eric McDaniel. Our producers are Elena Moore and Casey Morrell. Thanks to Brandon Carter, Lexi Schapittle, and Christian Dev-Kalimer. I'm Susan Davis. I cover politics. I'm Deirdre Walsh. I cover Congress. And I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent. And thanks for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast.