The NPR Politics Podcast - Is the Strait of Hormuz Trump’s biggest political headache?

Episode Date: May 5, 2026

Iran and the United States have exchanged fire in the Strait of Hormuz in the last couple days as the U.S. military tries to provide safe passage to commercial ships there. We discuss what these developments mean for the ongoing ceasefire, as well as how the war overall has stymied President Trump’s domestic priorities.This episode: political correspondent Ashley Lopez, national security correspondent Greg Myre, and White House correspondent Franco Ordoñez.This podcast was produced by Casey Morell and Bria Suggs, and edited by Rachel Baye.Our executive producer is Muthoni Muturi.Listen to every episode of the NPR Politics Podcast sponsor-free, unlock access to bonus episodes with more from the NPR Politics team, and support public media when you sign up for The NPR Politics Podcast+ at plus.npr.org/politics.See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for sponsorship and to manage your podcast sponsorship preferences.NPR Privacy Policy

Hey there, it's the NPR Politics Podcast. I'm Ashley Lopez I cover politics. I'm Greg Myrie. I cover national security. And I'm Franco Ordonez. I cover the White House. And we're recording this podcast at 137 p.m. Eastern Time on Tuesday, May 5th, 2026. Today on the podcast, Iran and the United States exchange fire yesterday in the Strait of Hormuz. Does this mean the ceasefire is over? Greg, I want to start with you. Can you tell us what's going on in the Strait? Yeah, yesterday the U.S. began what they're calling Project Freedom, and this comes after a month of relative calm. We've had the ceasefire. The talks about a peace agreement in the war have been halting. It's been tense, but there wasn't shooting going on. Now, the U.S. goal with Project Freedom is to open the strait, to break this Iranian blockade on the strait that's basically been there since the beginning of the war two months ago. And the U.S. wants to do it in a seemingly comprehensive way. We've heard all the talk about U.S. Navy ships escorting oil tankers out of the Gulf. And the way it's being laid out by the Pentagon is it would be designed to allow for a large flow of traffic.

We know the U.S. Navy has put a couple destroyers through the strait deep into the Gulf. And it has other ships positioned nearby in those areas as well. In addition, there are helicopters, fighter jets, drones, radar, early warning system, all of this designed to create an environment to protect. In fact, they're calling it an umbrella over the Strait of Hormuz to protect against Iranian attacks with drones and missiles so that traffic can flow through freely and it's not just a one ship per one oil tank or arrangement. Now, if it works, the U.S. would get a big boost.

It would get these oil tankers out of the Gulf. This would ease pressure on oil and gas prices worldwide. The U.S. military would look strong, able to defeat Iran's blockade. But there's certainly a big risk here. Commercial ships may not be willing to go out of the Gulf, fearing attack by Iran, as we saw yesterday a bit. The ships could get hit. And if this doesn't work, then Iran will look stronger, that it can enforce this blockade. the U.S. will look relatively weak. Today, neither side is conceding victory. In fact, both sides,

the U.S. and Iran are claiming that they control the Strait of Hormuz. Yeah. Does this mean that the U.S. is resuming combat operations, or is this more like traffic copying at this point? So at this point, we had a Pentagon news conference today with Defense Secretary Pete Hague Seth and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs General Dan Kane. They said that the ceasefire is still in place, that there was some shooting yesterday, but that didn't rise to the level of a full resumption of combat operations. So clearly the focus is on project freedom, and they're trying to make this distinct from the ceasefire or what's happening

elsewhere. And they want this operation to play out and not let it lead to a resumption of fighting. So the U.S. is sort of at this point willing to overlook any of these Iranian attacks by drone or by missile, but we'll have to see if that carries on if these Iranians. and attacks continue against the commercial ships and targeting the U.S. Navy vessels as well. Franco, we've obviously heard from Pentagon leaders since these attacks, but we've also heard from the president. What is he saying? Yeah, I mean, the president is basically echoing those messages that the United States controls the strait and that these cargo ships will be able to go through safely or should feel that they are safely. You know, I was in the Oval Office today where he said

things were going amazing. And he reiterated his claim that Iran wants to make a deal, but is also kind of playing games by talking to him and then going on television and saying something else. I call it a skirmish because Iran has no chance. They never did. They know it. They express it to me when I talk to them. Then they get on television. They say how well they're doing. And they have no Navy totally wiped out. They have no Air Force totally wiped out. They have no anti-aircraft capability totally wiped out, no radar. They have no leaders. The leaders are wiped out. The whole thing. And then I read the papers and they say how well they're doing. They're not doing well. That's why you have no credibility. Several of those comments are ones that he has said before. You know, after the strikes that

Greg was just describing yesterday, there's so many questions about if the strikes yesterday did not violate the ceasefire, what would? And President Trump said, well, you'll find out because I'll let you know. And he added that the Iranians know what to do and they know what not to do, which he said was more important. Yeah, you've mentioned that Trump has said time and time again, like the U.S. has pretty much won this. That's been his messaging since pretty much the beginning. But I wonder what you make of continuing that messaging, even though, you know, whether you call it skirmishes or not, this is continuing. Yeah. I mean, I think clearly President Trump continues to want to kind of de-escalate. It's clear that the president doesn't want to go back to bombing Iran.

The last thing he wants or the administration wants is this to be some kind of prolonged affair that is, you know, continuing to fuel this narrative that this could turn into some kind of endless war, the kind of war that he campaigned against. You know, I think you're hearing that from the various voices, from Trump, from Hegzeth, that they do want to de-escalate at the same time, that they do not. not want to sound weak. You know, he also clearly wants to calm the public and especially he wants to calm the markets because the markets is something that President Trump clearly and obviously plays very much attention to. Greg, obviously the entire world is watching what happens in the straight. How effective, though, does the U.S. strategy seem to be so far? Yeah, I think it's too early to say one way or the other on this project, Freedom that's been launched. But just the mere fact that President Trump has chosen this shows exactly what Franco was saying.

The U.S. doesn't want to restart the full-scale war that we saw for more than five weeks. He knows he can't really walk away from this and leave Iran in control of the strait. So there's kind of this middle path of trying to win a victory by opening up the Strait of Hormuz, by putting additional economic pressure on Iran, and hope that that will lead. to some success without having to go to either extreme. But I think the world is pretty skeptical. I mean, the main point would be other countries have not joined in. And every time that Pete Hagseth or President Trump speaks about this, they always say, well, it's the rest of the world that needs this oil. They should really be there doing this. And yet they're not taking part. And they're not even

offering a hearty endorsement of this. So I think a lot of countries would like to see this. work and have the straight opened up and oil get out. That's in everybody's interest. But they're not exactly volunteering to help or are saying that they have full confidence in this operation. Yeah. Well, we've talked a lot about what's been happening militarily. I am curious about diplomacy. Are negotiations still happening? I would say they're stalled right now. It seems that there are some still messages going back and forth with Pakistan as the broker here. It's recently is the end of last week. Iran sent out a new proposal about what it wanted. Iran really wants two things. It wants a permanent end to the war, not just a ceasefire. And then it also seems to be willing to discuss

its nuclear program, perhaps making some concessions that go a little farther than what they did in the past. But they're insisting they still have the right to a nuclear program and President Trump wants to end it. Now, President Trump said that that didn't go far enough. It's not clear if the U.S. is making any counter proposals on that. But basically, we've only had one face-to-face meeting in the past month since the ceasefire went into effect. So, yes, there's messages, there's some level of talking, but we don't really see any imminent breakthrough on the horizon. Yeah, well, also, the Trump administration obviously is not a fan of a prolonged. conflict because we're already seeing public opinion dragging. This has had serious political costs back

home for Trump. And I wonder how much of that dynamic is in the mix as Iranian officials weigh how much leverage they have in this discussion versus the United States. Do you have thoughts on that, Franco? Well, I mean, I think both sides are trying to say that the leverage is on their side, that they are winning this war. You know, the Iranian leaders over the weekend. and put out messages on social media that they know that the United States only has so much stomach for this conflict, for a prolonged conflict. And while I will say there is some truth to that, the administration I think has made clear that they want to get out of this. That said, obviously Iran suffered some damage too. They do not want to continue the bombing.

And the United States does have a lot of leverage. But clearly, time is more on Iran's side. Their goal is to kind of survive while President Trump has given so many mixed messages about what the objectives are, what the goals are, what he expects to win. I mean, today he's even talking about he wants Iran to cry uncle. And Iran is showing no signs of doing that. All right. We're going to take a quick break. More in a moment.

Welcome back. Franco, how is the situation in Iran affecting Trump's ability, though, to take. tackle his domestic priorities because it seems like for the most part, a lot of those have just been on the back burner for a while. Yeah. I mean, I think the war is eating up a lot of Trump's time. But when I, you know, pressed this to the White House, they say that the president can walk and chew gum at the same time. And those are literal, the words that they're telling me. And they're also quick to point out the administration is continuing to kind of work on his affordability agenda. You know, late last week, the president was in Florida talking to a retirement community. He also signed an executive order last week and has been working on lowering prices for prescription drugs.

Gas prices, though, have been higher and higher. They hit a new high last week. And Americans say they're not seeing much relief. I mean, there's different polls that show approval for how the president is handling the U.S. economy is really, really low in the 20s and 30 percentile. And that is a huge, huge deal going into the midterm elections. The White House promised in December that the president was going to kind of pivot towards domestic issues and really zero in on these economic and affordability issues. But time and again, he's really been pulled into international affairs and this war and the strait of Hormuz and the challenges around it and the impacts it's had on the U.S. economy have really been a big problem for this White House and are looking to be a huge challenge

for especially Republicans going into the midterms in a few months. I do wonder, though, does Trump and have any good options here politically? in terms of like where where he goes from here? President Trump wanted this to be a quick, short, decisive war. And it's not that. We're into month three and they're kind of stuck right now. So it's not the war he envisioned and certainly not the political benefits that he envisioned. He clearly was thinking this being much more like the Venezuela operation, which lasted all of three hours or so.

So now it's how do you get out of this with the least amount of damage? And again, there's two parts to this. One is how the war will end and play out and how the Middle East will look a year, two years, five years from now. That could still work out well. We'll have to wait and see. But that doesn't help President Trump with his immediate problems of the economy today and midterm elections in six months.

So at this point, the war looks to be a problem for Trump for the near term. The long term will have to wait and see how it. it plays out, but it's already been much stickier than he anticipated. I mean, that's a good question. I think, Franco, you were getting at this. Like, I am curious how sticky these political problems are for Trump. Like, let's say a lot of this gets wrapped up, like ships are flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. For some voters, there was very little cost. His core base of support still seems to be with him. But there were a lot of independent voters who, before the war started very happy with oil prices, very happy with Trump, you know, mostly economically speaking. But Trump entering this war, the cost that

people are paying at the pump, that doesn't come back to them. I do wonder how hard it will be to regain political footing with those kinds of voters. Yeah. I mean, I do think that Trump could, you know, retain some of his influence if this were to end quickly and the Strait of Hermuz were to reopen and start flowing with traffic like it did before. But that just seems so. so hard to imagine right now. And as you point out, while kind of like MAGA, his faithful, you know, Republican supporters continue to be behind him, they are starting to feel some impacts. We're starting to see some of those supporters kind of break down and feel like Trump is not fulfilling some of the promises that he made when he was campaigning on no more wars and, you know,

fixing the economy. But then you talk about independence and those are the ones who are going to be huge and key to the midterms elections because Trump is not on the ballot. So independence are going to play a huge force. And they are really, really struggling with this war, feeling like president has taken the country in a wrong direction, not supporting the activity of the U.S. there and not supporting the military actions. I mean, we do have to talk about the timing here. The midterms are not that far away. And I don't know, Greg, like it doesn't seem like even if a month from now, most of this were to get sorted, like financially, this could take a long time for voters to feel like things are leveling out, right? Oh, absolutely. I mean, I think there's always a lag. And the gas prices

are not going to come down quickly, even if that happens. The downside for Trump is much larger now than the potential upside. If oil doesn't start flowing quickly, then you could see some real spikes in oil prices and gas prices going through the roof. And even if things improve, the war ends, oil starts flowing. It's going to take time and it's going to ripple through the economy what's already begun to happen. So gas prices are likely to stay high. Inflation's likely to be a little bit elevated. People are not likely to feel great about the economy, even if this war works out fairly well in the near term. Yeah. I have kind of a basic question. What are the administration's goals here for the conflict in Iran? What needs to happen for the administration to basically declare a

victory. And I do wonder if, like, there would be any public buy-in to whatever they list as the thing that means they won. I think President Trump has made it very difficult to understand what those goals are. I mean, he has changed his message so frequently over the last few weeks, over the last few months. You know, he's talked about regime change. He's talked about all these military goals. You know, he likes to say that at one point he'll say that the goals are all militarily, but then talks about regime change and saying that the Iranians need to cry uncle. Will the American public buy it as a victory? I think you don't know. And I think that is a challenge, though, that Trump is creating for himself by giving all these mixed messages because no one knows what victory will look like because he hasn't made it clear. The administration has made it clear. And I think it creates a real credibility gap. All right, let's leave it there for today. And before we go, Ohio and Indiana have primary elections today.

We will talk about the results on tomorrow's episode. Plus, how Trump fares in a new NPR PBS News, Maris Pull. Don't miss it. Hit the follow button wherever you get your podcast. I'm Ashley Lopez. I cover politics. I'm Greg Myrie. I cover national security.

And I'm Frank O'Donias. I cover the White House. And thank you for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast.