The NPR Politics Podcast - Leaked Docs Reveal Ukraine's Vulnerabilities, US Intel On Allies

Episode Date: April 13, 2023

The Federal Bureau of Investigation has arrested a member of the Massachusetts Air National Guard, Jack Teixeira, as a suspect in the leak of classified intelligence documents. The files contain information about Ukraine's military readiness and sensitive intelligence gathered by the U.S. about its allies.This episode: White House correspondent Asma Khalid, White House correspondent Franco Ordoñez, and national security correspondent Greg Myre.The podcast is produced by Elena Moore and Casey Morell. It is edited by Eric McDaniel. Our executive producer is Muthoni Muturi. Research and fact-checking by Devin Speak.Unlock access to this and other bonus content by supporting The NPR Politics Podcast+. Sign up via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org. Connect:Email the show at [e-mail] the NPR Politics Podcast Facebook Group.Subscribe to the NPR Politics Newsletter.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Hello, my name is Steven. I'm a meteorologist from North Dakota. However, I just wrapped up a weather conference down in Omaha. Ironically enough, I can't start my drive home because a nasty blizzard has shut down more than half of my route. This podcast was recorded at 1 10 p.m. Eastern Time on Thursday, April 13th of 2023. Things may change by the time you hear it, but hopefully by the time you do, the roads will be open and I'll be well on my way back to my wife and son. Enjoy the show. Good luck, Stephen. Hey there, it's the NPR Politics Podcast. I'm Asma Khalid. I cover the White House. I'm Frank Ordonez. I also cover the White House. I'm Greg Myrie. I cover national security. And today on the show, a trove of leaked classified documents and the U.S. government's hunt to find that leaker.

President Biden is currently in Ireland, but earlier today on that trip, in response to a question from our very own Tamara Keith, Biden said that the U.S. is getting closer to resolving the investigation. There's a full-blown investigation going on, as you know, with the intelligence community and the Justice Department, and they're getting close. The Justice Department and the Pentagon are working to discover how these files got out. These files detail sensitive intelligence related to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. And a real quick caveat here, this is a quickly moving story. So by the time you all are listening to this podcast, it is possible that the leaker could be in U.S. custody. But we want to cover this at this moment

because I do think it's a really important story. So Greg, let's begin by asking what was in those documents? So we're talking about what seems to be at this point several dozen documents, mostly about the war in Ukraine, lots of maps and charts meant for top U.S. military officials and national security folks. Now, ever since the story broke last week, this didn't look like a professional operation. The documents were photographed, apparently, by somebody with their phone. The documents had been folded and creased. There was stuff in the background. So it looked like a fairly amateur style operation, not exactly high-end tradecraft. And they got out, it seems, via video game forums. Is that right?

So this was being shared among a small group of, it seems, about 20 or so young men on the social media platform Discord, which is very popular among gamers. Now, the Washington Post has reported that one guy in this group was identified as the leader. He went by the alias OG. And a few months ago, he began writing about these top secret documents he was seeing. He summarized them, but the others in the group didn't seem that interested. So to impress them or attempt to impress them, he started posting these photos of the documents online. Someone in the group apparently then posted them outside of the group. They still seemed to sit around for several weeks, a month or more, and then Russian telegram channels picked up on them. And then the New York

Times broke the story last week. Now the whole world knows. And it kind of reminds me of a Ben Franklin adage, which goes, three can keep a secret if two are dead. So a question for you both, because I know you've both covered the war in Ukraine. Is there any risk that these leaks could in some way affect Ukraine's war effort? I think the administration is, you know, saying no. I mean, they're certainly saying that, you know, that no one thing is going to, you know, stop the plan, that Ukraine is the one that is leading the effort. They're making these decisions. But at the same time, I mean, there's certainly concerns about these documents, specifically about Ukraine. The documents reveal questions and concerns

about their spring offensive and how they'll be able to carry it out. There's a lot of concerns about there that have raised not only kind of eyebrows in Ukraine and elsewhere in Europe, but, you know, across the across the globe, because they do not want these things coming out. And there's concerns that it could help Russia. But at the same time, Russia is accusing us of a misinformation campaign as well. So, I mean, there's so much going on here. It's so complicated. You know, Biden said earlier today that there was nothing contemporaneous that he's aware of in those leaked documents. Yeah, Asma, I think that he says nothing

contemporaneous, but there's very detailed, specific information as recently as the beginning of March. So things may have changed a little bit. But I'll give you one very concrete example, and that regards Ukraine's air defenses, which have totally outperformed what everybody expected. Ukraine has shot down incoming Russian missiles. They've basically scared the Russians off from using their jet fighters in Ukraine because so many were getting shot down. But Ukraine has a limited number of these air defense missiles. They're known to be running low. Nothing new about that. But these documents even predict a date next month when Ukraine will run out of those missiles. If that's true, this would certainly be of great benefit to the Russians to sort of have a sense

of this, because if Ukraine can't shoot down incoming fighter jets, Russia will quite likely start using them and trying to gain air superiority, something they've really wanted because if Ukraine can't shoot down incoming fighter jets, Russia will quite likely start using them and trying to gain air superiority, something they've really wanted throughout this war. Biden did raise concerns about the leak happening, but just not about the contents. I mean, it does seem like a further example of how the administration has really just been trying to scrambling to contain the damage here. But, you know, clearly Biden is kind of trying to, like, lessen concerns. Well, on that note, let's take a quick break and we'll be back in a moment. Hey, NPR Politics Plus listeners, don't miss our latest bonus episode.

It's a field trip. One of the cool things about the Hill is you can kind of go anywhere. Or some fun stuff, some secret stuff. You get in this tram and you're like, oh, hey, Senator Mitt Romney. Hey, Kyrsten Sinema. It's all in a day's work when you cover the Hill. So we're here on the floor of Statuary Hall now. We're actually really close to where the First Lady sits.

And these doors that have numbers on them, but no markings. These are the Senate hideaways. Thanks to our NPR Politics Plus supporters who can hear that episode now. And if you're not a supporter, it's easy to sign up at the link in our episode notes. And we're back. And military risks aside, I assume there is some sensitivity about some of the other information that was disclosed from these documents in terms of the United States spying on allies. So as we noted, this is mostly about the Ukraine war, but it includes U.S. intelligence assessments worldwide, and that includes allies. And in these secret and top secret documents, there's a lot of very frank comments about allies,

and it can be very unflattering at times. So countries like South Korea, Israel, and Turkey are all noted in these documents. It seems to be particularly causing a stir in South Korea, where the U.S. wants the South Koreans to sell artillery shells because Ukrainians have a real shortage. And so this has become an issue now that South Korea didn't want to get directly involved, but maybe indirectly involved. So a lot of these private conversations, these sort of tough, sensitive private conversations are now being rolled out in public. And this can be a bit embarrassing for all involved. And, Franca, going back specifically, though, to the Ukraine war, I mean, it does expose that it is not always easy for the United States, that it hasn't always been easy for Biden

to get allies rallied around this cause. And I know you've done reporting on some of that support dissipating even here in the United States. But some of what we're seeing in these documents shows that there are countries around the world, for example, that have had a hard time getting behind this cause. Yeah, I mean, no question. I mean, just building on what Greg was saying. I mean, one of the reasons South Korea is so concerned about that is because it has a policy of not sending weapons to a country of war. So, you know, here's the United States trying to do all these back channel ways to make that happen. And that's why South Korea is not really happy about it, because they say it's not happening, first of all, but they're concerned that it sends the wrong message. Israel is another one that he mentioned. Ukraine has long talked about wanting the Iron Dome technology that Israel has. And

Israel has said, no, it does not want to do that. In these documents, again, it kind of shows a way that Israel could provide some type of support from Ukraine, which Israel denies. And that, you know, one of the reasons Israel is also trying to, you know, kind of do this balancing act is because it really does not want to provoke Russia. And that's because Russia has a presence in Syria where Israel is, you know, conducting airstrikes against Iranian and pro Iranian targets. So this is really sensitive, sensitive stuff. And it just kind of shows kind of like the diplomatic dance that's going on that they're trying to keep behind closed doors and try to keep private.

So, Greg, one last question before we wrap up today's show. I want to get a sense from you of how this leak compares to other recent leaks that we've heard about in American history. Well, this has been a problem on multiple occasions in the past decade or so. I'll cite two cases in particular. Back in 2010, Chelsea Manning gave a trove of documents to WikiLeaks, which were spread around the world. This caused great consternation because it showed, again, private conversations between the U.S. and allies.

The U.S. was very worried that allies wouldn't want to share intelligence with the U.S. Manning went to prison for seven years in that case. Then just a couple years later in 2013, Edward Snowden was a contractor with the National Security Agency in Hawaii. He electronically copied huge quantities of documents. He fled ultimately to Russia, where he remains to this day. He shared that material with journalists. The NSA said this did great damage to their surveillance capabilities at the time. Snowden said he was acting to show how widespread the surveillance activities were and that information on U.S. citizens was being swept up. So this has been a recurring problem for the U.S. and, again, in a country where millions of people, government employees, military people, and civilian contractors have security clearance.

It sometimes happens that even relatively low-level people have access to top-secret information, and it only takes one person to leak it out. All right. Well, that is a wrap for today's show. I'm Asma Khalid. I cover the White House. I'm Frank Ordonez. I also cover the White House. And I'm Greg Myrie. I cover national security. And thank you all, as always, for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast.