The NPR Politics Podcast - Looking At The Election In Arizona

Starting point is 00:00:00 Support for this podcast and the following message come from the NPR Wine Club, which has generated over $1.75 million to support NPR programming. Whether buying a few bottles or joining the club, you can learn more at nprwineclub.org slash podcast. Must be 21 or older to purchase. Hi, this is Nisa, currently standing in line to cast my ballot on the first day of early voting in Georgia. This podcast was recorded at 1 05 p.m. on Wednesday, the 16th of October. Things may have changed by the time you hear this, but I'll probably be wearing my I'm a Georgia voter sticker. Okay, here's the show. Voters are voting. Yes, we talked about it on yesterday's pod and it turns out they did

Starting point is 00:00:47 break a first day early voting record there in Georgia. Hey there, it's the NPR Politics Podcast. I'm Tamara Keith. I cover the White House. I'm Jimena Bustillo and I cover politics. And I'm Ben Giles. I cover the campaign. And today on the show, we're taking a look at Arizona. It's one of the seven key swing states we talk about all the time in the presidential race. But there's more. Voters will decide a key Senate contest and a couple of fascinating ballot measures. Let's start with those ballot measures, which do happen to overlap with two issues on voters' minds a lot this year. Ben, you are based in Arizona and let's talk about this

Starting point is 00:01:26 first ballot measure. It's related to immigration. What would it do? So it's nearly identical to Texas's SB4 in that it would allow local law enforcement, county sheriffs and police departments to enforce federal immigration law by making it a state crime to cross the border anywhere outside of one of the points of entry on the US Mexico border. This is part of a long standing talking point in Arizona about the federal government's failures to address immigration and to enforce illegal crossings at the border. The state wants to take on that role, Republicans in the state, I should say,

Starting point is 00:02:08 and give sheriffs and local law enforcement the authority to do just that. And Jimena, you are just back from a reporting trip in Arizona. I am a little confused though, because immigration is a federal policy, not a state one, And I feel like this has been in the courts.

Starting point is 00:02:28 Yes. So this part of the ballot measure will not go into effect unless Texas's SB4 that Ben just talked about is ruled constitutional. So technically this is unconstitutional right now. It cannot be enforced. It cannot be enacted. And it's kind of a form of a trigger law. Like, it won't go into effect until courts decide that Texas is allowed to do this first. Does it have support? Marc Thiessen It does. Think back to SB 1070, the infamous 2010 immigration law that Arizona passed.

Starting point is 00:03:03 And there is support for this measure as well, because it is a popular talking point to say, the federal government is failing to secure the border. Arizona needs to take on a role in this as well. The interesting thing though, is it's not popular with some border sheriffs who are actually encouraging people to vote against it, because in their view, it's an unfunded mandate

Starting point is 00:03:26 and it's going to be more work that their departments are not capable of taking on. Yeah, Republican mayors and sheriffs, I think, have told both of us that there's no money going into this measure and there's no increase in resources, so they're gonna be mandated to enforce a federal law and do additional tasks without added personnel needing to do training without added

Starting point is 00:03:52 money for it. But at the same time, they say that this measure comes from a place of what I've been told is like, quote, sheer exasperation. We saw that Arizona earlier this year was one of the busiest parts of the border, particularly after the Texas part of the border shut down. And there was increase in crossings, a lot of asylum seekers particularly. And it was in the news a lot. Republicans talked about it a lot. Trump has gone to the border.

Starting point is 00:04:19 Vice President Kamala Harris has gone to the border. One thing I will add is this measure is also getting a lot of support because it creates new state laws to punish fentanyl trafficking. It creates additional electronic verification on status for access to public service to make sure that those that are undocumented maybe can't access them or there are more restrictions there. And so there are other parts of this larger measure that make it really confusing and in some parts that voters might understand more than others. Well that that is the joy of ballot measures now isn't it? Is that they are often very confusing. So let's talk about another

Starting point is 00:04:59 big one. This is the one we've heard I think the most about. It is an abortion measure. Jimena, remind us of what's at stake with that one. So this ballot measure would enshrine the right to abortion in the state's constitution, and it would also increase access to abortion to what in the language it says the point of viability, which is about 24 weeks. And currently under state law in Arizona, what is allowed? There's a 15 week abortion ban on the books. You probably heard a lot earlier this year about the territorial near total abortion ban.

Starting point is 00:05:35 That was repealed by state lawmakers and that territorial ban taking effect, I think really boosted the campaign to get this 24-week law on the ballot. And does that measure also look likely to pass? Does that measure have a lot of support? Overwhelmingly, yes, it's expected to pass. I've actually started to hear from Republicans like Charlie Kirk out on the campaign trail just acknowledge this measure is going to pass. Voters support it. It's

Starting point is 00:06:06 a citizen initiative and they set a record for the number of signatures gathered to get this measure on the ballot. There's a lot of support for this. Do either of you have any sense of what these two apparently popular ballot measures could mean for the electorate, like who shows up and votes and what that might mean for, let's say, the presidential race. All sorts of Democrats up and down the ballot are hitching their wagon to this abortion measure from Ruben Gallego. He's the Democrat running for the US Senate seat in Arizona to legislative candidates further down the ballot.

Starting point is 00:06:45 They all see abortion as a winning issue this year. And that's part of the reason why we have this immigration measure on the ballot in the first place. It was passed by the Republican majority in the state legislature just a few weeks after the abortion issue kind of reared its head with that territorial ban. And Republicans were pretty open about the fact that they were trying to put something else on the ballot that would inspire their base to show up, their base to go out in droves and hopefully vote not just for this immigration question, but also vote for Republican candidates up and down the ballot because they are concerned about the sweeping effect the abortion measure could have.

Starting point is 00:07:29 All right. Well, we're going to take a quick break and more on a bit on other races in Arizona. This message comes from WISE, the app for doing things in other currencies. Send, spend, or receive money internationally and always get the real-time mid-market exchange rate with no hidden fees. Download the WISE app today or visit WISE.com, T's and C's apply. Support for this podcast and the following message come from Autograph Collection Hotels, offering over 300 independent hotels around the world, each exactly like nothing else.

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Starting point is 00:08:54 of this race and they want you to join. Subscribe on your favorite podcast platform now. And we're back. And Arizona has a big Senate race this fall with the retirement of independent Senator Kyrsten Sinema. Ben, remind us who's on the ballot in that race. As we mentioned earlier, Congressman Ruben Gallego, he's been running for this seat for almost two years. He actually announced he would run as the Democratic candidate before Sinema announced her retirement. And then there's also the Republican in the race, Carrie Lake. She lost the race for Arizona governor two

Starting point is 00:09:30 years ago. And how is that race shaping up? Is it competitive? It's not looking as competitive as some might have thought. There are polls out there that show Ruben Gallego with a double digit lead in the race. Carrie Lake's likeability rating is underwater according to some polls. I think that she's been in the public view so much since she started running for governor that her election denialism has really turned off a lot of voters. And also her position on abortion has been a huge attack point for Democrats because it has shifted a lot in the last two to three years. She's been on

Starting point is 00:10:11 record as calling abortion the ultimate sin. She praised the territorial abortion ban before the Supreme Court in Arizona ruled that that would take effect. And she's tried to walk back that position. And I don't think that's gone over well with Arizona voters. According to all the polls out there that we're seeing, at the presidential level, the race for Arizona is very tight. And obviously, four years ago, it was extremely tight. Donald Trump may be up slightly over Vice President Harris, but this is a margin of error kind of race. And yet, at the Senate level, Kerry Lake is trailing Rubin

Starting point is 00:10:53 Gallego pretty significantly. So what is happening there? I think it shows that Arizonans are very particular voters. And there is a history of Arizonans are very particular voters and there is a history of Arizonans casting split ticket ballots. For example, let's go back to 2018. There was a gubernatorial race on the ballot and there was a US Senate race on the ballot. Kirsten Sinema running against Martha McSally, the Republican back then. Kirsten Sinema won, but so did the Republican running for governor, Doug Ducey. He was reelected to a second term.

Starting point is 00:11:31 And there were a lot of voters that were voting for a Democrat for US Senate and a Republican for governor. So there are voters in Arizona who aren't beholden to political party in the way the Republican and the Democratic base in Arizona might be. So it's not a complete surprise to me that there are voters in Arizona who are looking at Trump and saying, you know, I could use another four years of that, but also looking at Kerry Lakin going, maybe she's just not the right candidate for me. I'd prefer Ruben Gallego.

Starting point is 00:12:03 So we've got 20 days left. What are you watching for, Jimena? not the right candidate for me, I'd prefer Ruben Gallego. Nicole S It has a very large Latino population. It has a significant Native American voting population. It also has a growing black and African American population in the Phoenix area. And so seeing how different coalitions are targeted by each party, by Republicans and Democrats, by the Harris campaign, the Trump campaign, down to the Senate race, I think, might show where priorities lie and

Starting point is 00:12:45 ultimately which different coalitions make the difference on election night. And I'm waiting to see if the Republican ground game has in any way caught up to the Democratic machine, if you will. Democrats have been very good in years past about knocking on doors, encouraging people to vote early if they get their ballot by mail, to turn that in, to fill it out completely. There's a lot to vote for and a lot at stake. And Republicans really have outsourced their ground game to Turning Point USA this year. And unlike four years ago and two years ago, they too are encouraging people

Starting point is 00:13:25 to vote early to get out and cast their ballot before election day. And I don't think we'll know the answer to how effective that campaign has been until the results are in. Okay, we'll leave it there for today. I'm Tamara Keith. I cover the White House. I'm Jimena Bustillo and I cover politics. I'm Ben Giles. I cover the campaign. And thank you for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast. [♪upbeat music playing.♪ [♪upbeat music playing.♪ [♪upbeat music playing.♪

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The NPR Politics Podcast - Looking At The Election In Arizona

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