The NPR Politics Podcast - Meet The Republican Candidates Who Could Unseat Swing-State Dems

Episode Date: October 11, 2022

There is a month left before the final vote is cast in the 2022 midterm elections. Can Republicans succeed in taking full control of Congress? We break down the Senate races to watch, with a particular emphasis on the challengers trying to unseat Democrats in purple states.This episode: White House correspondent Asma Khalid, congressional correspondent Deirdre Walsh, and senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro.Learn more about upcoming live shows of The NPR Politics Podcast at nprpresents.org.Support the show and unlock sponsor-free listening with a subscription to The NPR Politics Podcast Plus. Learn more at plus.npr.org/politics Connect:Email the show at [e-mail] the NPR Politics Podcast Facebook Group.Subscribe to the NPR Politics Newsletter.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Hey there, it's Susan Davis from the NPR Politics Podcast and Atlanta. Come see us live. Join me, Mara Liason, Asma Khalid, Tamara Keith, Miles Parks, Georgia Public Broadcasting's Stephen Fowler, and WABE's Raul Bali as we do our show live at the Buckhead Theater Thursday, October 20th at 8 p.m. You can find more information about tickets, including student ones, at nprpresents.org. Thanks to our partners at Georgia Public Broadcasting, WABE, and WCLK Jazz. We hope to see you there. Hi, this is Sean in Nevada City, California. I just watched my hometown San Diego Padres beat Domenico's New York Mets and advance to the NLDS where they'll face the Dodgers. And like Joe Musgrove, I do not have any foreign substances on my ears. This podcast was recorded at 1 10 p.m. Eastern time on Tuesday, October 11th. Things might have changed by the time you hear it. Enjoy the show. Yeah, it's really sad. But you know, the Padres played great. So kudos to them. Disappointing year.

My brother's a long-suffering Mets fan, Domenico. So condolences to you both. Yeah, we're the new Cubs. Hey there, it's the NPR Politics Podcast. I'm Asma Khalid. I cover the White House. I'm Deirdre Walsh. I cover Congress. And I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent. And today on the show, we're going to talk about the final stretch of the midterms. We are down to just four weeks to cast ballots in the 2022 midterms, and the landscape for control of the Senate is still shifting. The momentum keeps fluctuating between Republicans and Democrats.

And as of this very moment, it seems to be tilting slightly back toward the GOP, in part because of a natural tightening just closer to November as the races come into focus for more people, but also because of a barrage of television advertising in key races supporting GOP candidates. And Domenico, you have been reporting on this. So where is all of this ad money coming from? Yeah, well, the cavalry has come to the rescue of some of these Republican candidates who had been struggling quite a bit. You know, the Senate Leadership Fund, which has ties to Mitch McConnell, the Senate Republican leader, has just dumped tens of millions of dollars into key races, $52 million in the last two weeks alone

in the key Senate races, in particular, really helped to boost, you know, J.D. Vance in Ohio, who had been struggling against Tim Ryan in a state where really Ohio should not be an issue for Republicans. And to kind of help, you know, Mehmet Oz, the celebrity TV doctor in Pennsylvania, who has sort of closed the gap a little bit with Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman, the Democrat in that race. I think it's notable that, you know, we've covered Democrats this cycle who've been able to raise a lot of money, but they've been warning for months that as the race is closed and as we got closer to election day, they were going to be at a financial disadvantage

because of the outside money from Mitch McConnell's super PAC. And, you know, it's interesting to me, McConnell has been warning for months about concerns about candidate quality. And here he is coming to the rescue of several candidates in key states that have been vastly outraised by the Democratic candidates. And he's picking up the slack and helping close that gap. And in some cases that, you know, Democrats are going to be outspent because of the outside money from the Senate leadership. We also had this poll that came out late last week, a new NPR Marist poll that our network does. And in it, Domenico, it seems like there are some broader warning signs for Democrats. So help us understand that. Well, you know, President Biden really saw his

approval rating boosted a bit. You know, he's up to 44 percent, which Democrats had been worried about whether or not their candidates could outpace how much they could really overperform a president who was lagging in the mid 30s, by the way, in July, which is really not good. And it's very hard to, you know, overperform a president that much. So, you know, raising his floor a little bit does help Democrats. You know, the overall enthusiasm, Democrats aren't too far behind Republicans. I think the big sign with that is to show that this is we're headed for probably a pretty high turnout for a midterm election. That's what everyone is pointing to and thinking about right now. The problem for Democrats here is that the people who say that they're least likely to definitely vote this fall are black voters and young voters, two key pillars for the Democratic Party.

Democrats I talked to for months have been saying that Democratic candidates have been outperforming President Biden. They're happy that his approval ratings are ticking up, but they're not really banking on Biden helping them in this final stretch. Many of them don't expect to campaign with him. But that enthusiasm issue, I think many Democrats are hoping that the new factors that got thrown into this race starting over the summer with the Dobbs decision, with the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade, would help with enthusiasm with their base and with young people. I want to zero in on a couple of key states and ask you both about them. One is Georgia, controversial GOP candidate, but still a lot of, you know, party investment we're seeing and a lot of chatter about what might happen in Georgia. You know, Domenico, what is your sense

of how competitive the Senate race is in Georgia and what we ought to keep an eye on? Well, it's one of the most important races for Republicans, and that's why you've seen them not back away from Hershel Walker for the most part. Despite all of the scandals and his qualifications for office really being called into question with a lot of his statements and past history. And I think this is a race that really shows – it's going to tell us a lot about just how strong a drug party ID is, which we know is a really strong drug. People put the jerseys on. They want to win. But if ever there was a scandal that would hurt a campaign, This is one of them. I mean, we're talking about somebody whose ex accuses him of paying for an abortion, urging her to have an abortion, and she's the mother of one of his children, according to these reports. And this is the kind of thing that even though he

denies this, with as much corroboratory evidence as there has been with this, this is the kind of thing that even though he denies this, you know, with as much corroboratory evidence as there has been with this, this is the kind of thing that would normally really take down a campaign in a lot of past races. And another sign that this race is so important for Senate Republicans is you have two Senate Republicans today campaigning with Herschel Walker. Rick Scott, who runs the Senate Republican Campaign Committee, is down there with conservative Arkansas Senator Tom Cotton, just to show that the sort of mainstream Republicans, the conservative wing of the party is rallying around Herschel Walker. And I think another big thing to look at this week is the debate, the one and only debate

is on Friday. I think that will be closely watched, not just in Georgia, but by a lot of other people around the country who know how critical this race is. Yeah, just to tell you by the numbers how important it is. I mean, if Democrats were to flip Pennsylvania, which, you know, they're favored to, it seems that right now, at least mildly with John Fetterman leading Oz there, Republicans would likely have to win two of three of Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona. And, you know, all of those races are very, very close. All right. Well, let's take a quick break and we'll have more in a moment.

And we're back. And I want to ask you both about another state, Nevada. It is one of the few places that I think we can say that a sitting Democrat appears to be in legitimate jeopardy. And I do think there was a perception among many Democrats for years that this state was pretty solidly blue, just given how it's voted in recent presidential elections. So help me understand what is making Democrats so vulnerable this year. Well, you have to think about, you know, Nevada really is a purple state. I mean, it's one that leans a little bit toward Democrats, but even all of those races that Democrats have won over the last decade and a half have been very, very, very close, even at the presidential level. You know, we're talking only a couple of points.

And really what's pushed Democrats over the edge has been a bit of the demographics of the changing state and increase in Latinos and Asian Americans, but also what was known as the Reed machine, you know, former Democratic Senate leader Harry Reed, the late Harry Reed, he really had a hold in Clark County, where two thirds of the vote comes from for Democrats to be able to turn out voters and really sort of turn the spigot on. And there's a lot of questions this time around, you know, with the economy not doing as well, with a high percentage of white working class voters, working class Latinos who've really struggled to, you know, with the effects of the

pandemic, you know, whether or not they're going to be enthusiastic to turn out to vote and whether or not that machine can still operate at a high level. I mean, Reid himself was a veteran of very close Senate races in Nevada, but he was able through his experience and long time in the state to bring the party together. The Democratic Party in the state's kind of split right now between the progressives and the mainstream Democratic Party. But I think in Nevada, the economy is really the biggest issue. It's a state that was hit especially hard by the pandemic, by inflation. It has among the highest gas prices in the country. A lot of folks who work in the state are in the service economy. They drive to work. They personally are dealing with record high gas prices. And the industry itself is having a hard time coming back. So as much as Senate Democrats want to talk about abortion, and Senator Catherine Cortez Masto has tried to make that an issue, the state law in Nevada affirmed the right to abortion. So the Republican as Adam Laxalt has been able to sort of say, well, the law is set in Nevada. So he's tried to take

that issue off the table and more squarely focus the debate on inflation, where he has an advantage on an issue where people are really feeling it in their pocketbooks. So I think Catherine Cortez Masto right now is effectively the most endangered Senate Democrat. And it's interesting to hear you point to the economy because it felt like early on in these midterms, inflation concerns about the economy were really top of mind for a lot of voters. And then Democrats were able to shift the focus with the Dobbs decision. I think shift the focus to a degree, the more that the former President Donald Trump constantly stepped into this conversation and make it perhaps more of a choice. But when it comes to inflation, the economy, I mean, Domenico, your polling, I think,

has shown this as well, that Republicans seem to have an advantage on that issue. They do. And inflation remains the top issue for independents and swing voters. And I think that, you know, all of these things can be true at the same time. And we're talking about points at the margins here that are going to determine this race. Yes, abortion rights is an important issue for independent voters, for suburban women, and that's a key group for Democrats to try and turn out. Ties to former President Trump. Trump is not very popular in Nevada. And Adam Laxalt, who is the former attorney general in the state of Nevada, is an election denier who helped chair Trump's Nevada presidential election campaign efforts and

really had to go pretty hard right to get his endorsement. So that does matter to a lot of voters. But the economy really is the biggest weight here. And Democrats are going to have to work pretty hard to try to counter that. So one more state I want to ask you both about. We haven't talked, I believe, at all actually on this podcast, at least this election cycle, about New Hampshire. Quite an interesting Senate race there as well. Deirdre, what are you watching? Right. Republicans at the beginning of this election cycle considered Senate Democrat Maggie Hassan one of the most vulnerable Democrats. But there was a very divisive race on the Republican side.

And the Republicans' preferred candidate, the governor, Kristen, who is very popular, took a pass. So the Republican who ended up winning the nomination, Don Baldickick is a far right wing Republican candidate. This is one of the places that Democrats spent some money to prop up the most extreme candidate thinking that it would be more helpful in a general election and he would be easier to beat. But I think New Hampshire is still worth keeping a close eye on. It may have slipped down the list a little bit and some of the Republican Party money may have come out of the state. But the outside super PAC with ties to Mitch McConnell is still spending big in New Hampshire and has plans to continue to spend against Maggie Hassan through the rest of the election. You know, New Hampshire is a real swing state with a lot of independent voters. About 40 percent of the state identifies independence or unaffiliated with either party. And it's a

good example of whether a generic Democrat, you know, Republicans and Democrats both kind of see Maggie Hassan as just Democrat, you know, there isn't anything, you know, to really distinguish her more than the fact that she is a Democrat. Whether a generic Democrat can win or beat, how well they can do against somebody who's aligned with the former President Trump. And if you're looking for an example of how Trump might do in a 2024 presidential election against, you know, say a Biden or somebody of that sort of moderate center left stance, well, this might be a pretty good example of seeing how that plays out. All right, well, let's leave it there for today. I'm Asma

Khalid. I cover the White House. I'm Deirdre Walsh. I cover Congress. And I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent. And thank you all, as always, for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast.