The NPR Politics Podcast - Midterm Update: "Super Tuesday" Primaries Results

Episode Date: June 6, 2018

Democrats are feeling a little better about taking back the House after they advanced candidates in the key races in California. At the same time, it wasn't a bad night for Republicans. We break down the top takeaways from the night. This episode: Congressional correspondent Scott Detrow, national political correspondent Mara Liasson, and Congressional reporter Kelsey Snell. Email the show at [e-mail]. Find and support your local public radio station at npr.org/stations.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Hey everyone, this is Ella from Pasadena, California, and I just voted! This podcast was recorded at... We should just say this is one of like 20 timestamps we got from people voting in California, which we appreciate. It is 1-17 Eastern on Wednesday, June 6th. Things may have changed by the time you hear it. Okay, now here's the show. Da-da-da-da, da-da-da-da, da-da-da-da-da- the show. Favorite part. It's pretty good. Yeah, why even have our music there? That was good. Hey there, it's the NPR Politics Podcast. It was the biggest primary day of the year. We've got the results, so we're going to talk about them. I'm

Scott Detrow. I cover Congress. I'm Kelsey Snell. I also cover Congress. And I'm Mara Liason, national political correspondent. A lot of results to dig into. We're going to talk about a lot of specific races, but let's start with some big takeaways. Mara, you've been tracking turnout week after week this year. What did yesterday tell you? Yesterday told me that the Democrats are continuing to overperform their turnout numbers from past midterms. And that's a really key indicator of enthusiasm. Just to give you an example, 175,000 Democrats turned out in yesterday's primary in Iowa. In 2014, only 72,000 turned out. So that is a huge jump. And it shows you that all over the

country, Democrats are continuing to overperform their turnout numbers from past midterms. Now, we should say their turnout numbers in the past have been dismal. Democrats have had a kind of curse. They seem to only be able to turn out their voters every four years instead of two. But it seems like they've finally changed their ways this time. So takeaway number one, Democrats continuing to show up in these primaries. Takeaway number two, Kelsey, yet another big night for the ladies. I'm going to be the broken record here and say, ladies, ladies, ladies, keep winning everywhere. We're talking about in Iowa, in California, in Alabama. This was a really just a big night in a longer trend of voters really seeming to want fresh faces and particularly women. That played out for Republicans, too. I know for a lot of the time we've talked about

this as a primarily Democratic trend, but we saw Congresswoman Kristi Noem in South Dakota will be running for governor there. And that breaks its own trend where we've seen a lot of House Republicans who are running for higher office just not winning. And she won. Okay. And here's my big takeaway. Leading up to the race, we all talked about California's top two system, how it could lead to this disastrous scenario for Democrats, where they would have been locked out of the fall ballot in several key house races, just because they had too much enthusiasm for their own good, like a bumper car of candidates running against each other. We talked about it. A lot of political outlets talked about it.

Turns out it did not happen. Democrats advanced in all of the key House races they wanted to advance in. Kelsey, what did Democrats do to avert this disaster? Because this was something they took seriously. This wasn't just an overhyped thing. Yeah, they did. Well, a couple of things that they did that were really important in California were one, they started out early and moved a separate office of their campaign committee, the people who raise money and organize and kind of bring all of the resources to candidates. They set one up in Irvine, California, in the heart of Orange County, where most of these races are. So much so that a real housewife of Orange County had an office in that office building. That is true.

And they spent a lot of money. I don't know which one. I just know that there was one. Yeah, I don't know it either, but they did share the office space. But they spent a lot of money. A lot of money. They spent a lot of money. I forget which one. I just know that there was one. Yeah, I don't know it either, but they did share the office space. But they spent a lot of money. A lot of money. They spent a lot of money. And part of spending money was that the campaign committee for Democrats, the DCCC is. But things were so crowded here that they kind of put their thumb on the scale for specific candidates that they thought could actually win in a general election. Though Mara, they put their thumb on the scale in a much more subtle way than what we saw national Democrats do in some of these races earlier in the year where they, you know, carpet bombed a candidate in Texas that they didn't like with opposition research. In California, it seems like they learned that lesson and they were a little bit more subtle, waited till later in the race, said we prefer this candidate. It wasn't like a

big announcement of their presence. Right. And this is a fine line that any national party committee has to walk because there's a lot of anti-establishment feeling among the Democratic Party base, especially in California. And in some of these races, you had the California State Democratic Party backing a different candidate than the DCCC, the National Democratic Committee. But they wanted a candidate who could win. They wanted a candidate. The biggest thing they wanted was not to get shut out. And because in the top two primary, you could. And interestingly enough, they didn't get shut out anywhere. But Republicans were shut out of 10 congressional races. So in 10 California congressional races, there will be two Democrats on the ballot. Top two. This is California's unusual primary setup where all the candidates run in the same primary, all the Democrats, all the Republicans. You just vote for one person in one primary and the top two finishers advance no matter what party they're in. I think it's really important

to note, I just got back from California. I was in several of these districts and I talked to dozens of voters and in Democratic races saying, who all said to a person that even if their candidate didn't win, they were still going to go vote for a Democrat in November. And so there may have just been some overestimation of how passionately people in the fringes or on the different flanks of the party were going to pull away from Democrats in a year when Democrats are so very clearly different from Republicans on policy and on other substantive issues. And I do think there's been a storyline, you know, will the Democrats act like the Republicans did in 2010 and 2014 when the Tea Party was really kind of tearing at the unity of the Republican Party? But Democrats are more or less unified. Of course, they have their tensions, but they want to win and they're willing to compromise. And as Kelsey just explained, sometimes vote with their head, not their hearts. OK, let's let's skip around the country a little bit and talk about some of these specific results. Just a reminder, Democrats need to net 23 seats to win the House this year.

A lot of the districts where Democrats think those wins will come were on the ballot last night, seven in California alone. Kelsey, we mentioned that the Democrats, first of all, got candidates on the ballot. Anything else worth flagging from these races that jumps out to you? I think one of the most interesting races was in Southern California with Dana Rohrabacher, who has been in Congress for nearly 30 years. He's very, very close with President Trump, so close that the president tweeted congratulations to Rohrabacher earlier today. Though it feels like congratulations are an odd sentiment. They are because Rohrabacher only got 30% of the vote. And that's not great if you're an incumbent.

And the thing that's most interesting to me about this is that we actually still don't even know which Democrat he's going to be running against. There are two. One was backed by the state party. One was backed by national Democrats. And they are still battling it out over what is, by the current count, less than 100 votes. And that will probably go on for a while because a lot of Californians, like the vast majority of Californians, actually vote by mail in primaries. So a lot of ballots might still be coming and showing up in the next couple of days as long as they were postmarked in time. Yeah. But if you talk to the establishment Democrats here in Washington, they say the real good news is that from their perspective is that no matter what happens, there will be a Democrat in that race. New Jersey voted yesterday, too. That's another state where Democrats think they can win several seats from Republicans. But Mara, in the Senate primary,

not good news for Democrats. Bob Menendez, the incumbent, had a pretty bad night. I mean, he won, but it was not a good night. He won and he got over 60 percent of the vote, which sounds, whoa, big number. But actually, in the Democratic primary, when he was running against pretty much a nobody, that was a poor showing. He has been dogged by corruption questions and he's been on trial. And but he squeaked through, you through. He's clearly wounded. Republicans, I think, might be grasping at straws to think they have a way to beat him. But not a good showing for an incumbent. What do you think about that, Kelsey? I mean, I did get a note from

Dan Polster, who was basically saying there is always one race that kind of pops onto the map later in the game and becomes competitive in a way that people didn't expect, this one might be it. Yeah. And he did face a trial for corruption charges. The allegation was generally bribery. It was a mistrial. It was a hung jury. But after that, the Senate Ethics Committee admonished him. Democrats respond saying he was tried by a jury. They did not find him guilty. We're all moving forward. But clearly, it looks like a lot of voters feel differently. Yeah, a lot of voters feel differently. But the things that people can get away with in politics is often extraordinary, but voters forgive a lot

of things. So we'll see. But no doubt he comes out wounded and less strong than he looked the day before. All right. We mentioned Iowa early in the podcast. Anything else worth flagging from Iowa's results? Yeah. There is a 28-year-old woman, a Democrat who just won. Her name is Abby Finkenauer. She would be the youngest woman ever to run, to be elected to Congress. And her race is suddenly really competitive. She's running against somebody who, Rod Bloom, who is just not polling very well. And so Democrats think they could finally pick up a seat here where they have been seeing those big losses that Mara was just talking about.

So we've been focusing on the Democrats, as we often do each week, because they're the party out of power and they have the more interesting storylines at the moment. But a lot of stuff worth flagging about Republicans, too. Mara, first of all, it was not a bad night, but not an amazing night for Republicans. Not an, first of all, it was not a bad night, but not an amazing night for Republicans. Not an amazing night for Republicans, but they didn't get shut out of the California governor's race. And this is something that Donald Trump has tweeted about. There was a chance that in the top two primary, two Democrats could be running against each other for the governor of California to succeed Jerry Brown, who's term limited. But the Republican candidate came in

second. So he's going to be on the ballot. But the Republican candidate came in second. So he's going to be on the ballot. And the reason why that's really good for Republicans is they think that will help them boost turnout for congressional races, down ballot races. I would say there's also a silver lining for Democrats there. Gavin Newsom, the Democrat, now the lieutenant governor, gets to run against a Republican instead of having a really ugly internecine fight against Antonio Villaraigosa, who would be it would be an Anglo versus a Hispanic. The Democratic Party didn't want that kind of fight. So you could say it was a silver lining for them, though. It does look like in the California Senate race, it's two Democrats who advanced Dianne Feinstein and Kevin de Leon, the state senator who was challenging her.

So much of a race there. Yeah. Another interesting thing to talk about on the Republican side, Kelsey, is an Alabama House race that is the latest test of how it pays to be Trumpy when you're running as a Republican. Yes, Martha Roby. She is a congresswoman in Alabama, and she is now going to be going to a runoff against somebody who used to be a Democrat, a Democrat who was in Congress and voted for Nancy Pelosi. So that part of it tells us basically that she's going to do probably pretty fine in the long run. But she wound up in this runoff because she was one of the people who early on said they weren't going to be voting for Donald Trump. It was over the Access Hollywood tape and she was personally offended by that.

And she said she just couldn't Donald Trump. It was over the Access Hollywood tape, and she was personally offended by that. And she said she just couldn't back Trump. She spent a lot of time in recent months trying to draw herself closer to him. But it is clear that not all voters are willing to forget that she was against him to begin with. Would you rather be anti-Donald Trump or pro-Nancy Pelosi running in Alabama? You know what? I'd rather be a female person who had one transgression, and it was around the Access Hollywood tape. And I think a lot of people can understand that. They can understand that much more than they can understand somebody who used to be a Democrat, who switches parties just so they could run against the person they lost to. I think that she has a better narrative, I think, in that state. So last thing to talk about here is wither blue wave.

We had been talking for the last few weeks. There was a lot. There were a lot of indications that maybe Republicans wouldn't be so bad off after all. President Trump's approval rating ticking up. Really, really positive economic indicators. A lot of signs that the country is on the right track, at least according to how voters feel about it. I was looking for one specific thing to think if we should rethink our blue wave thoughts, and that was the voter turnout and the results in these key Orange County, Southern California races. Given that this is a traditionally Republican part of the state that

Democrats saw huge gains in in 2016, the question was, can that be repeated or not? If you add up all the Republican votes and all the Democratic votes in a lot of these key races, the Republicans still had slim majorities, a little bit over 50%. But I think that this was really positive signs for Democrats. They got their voters to show up to vote for their candidates. And typically, general election turnout in California is a lot better, especially on the Democratic side than it is during the primary. So I think if these races, which have gone Republican for so long, are this close for Democrats, I think that our conversations about can Democrats win 30 or so seats and retake the House, I think the indicators still point to that as a possibility. Yeah, possibility. Look, we always knew, I think getting fixated on this blue wave idea as if it was some kind of a done deal that Democrats

would take back the House was silly. But I do think Democrats are going to pick up seats. They have every piece of history on their side in that. The question is, how many are they going to get the majority back? Every indicator shows that they're enthusiastic. They're turning out. The Republicans do have some things going for them. As you said, presidential approval rating going up, generic ballot tightening, economy really good, and the mighty fortress of redistricting, which is helping a lot of these Republican members of Congress. But waves usually develop late. That's something that we've learned from history. And so if we were going to have a wave, we might not know it until the fall. Well, Republicans have other things that they

should probably be worried about here. One of the things that Scott and I have talked about is that there are very few other times that I can think of where the party in power of people in control of Congress and the White House have moved so many base-moving, base-shaking policies in such a short amount of time. About the best comparison we could come up with was when President Obama was moving things in the early part of his first term. We were talking about auto bailouts and the stimulus and health care and Dodd-Frank. Those were all things that spoke directly to the Democratic base,

but really got Republicans revved up to run against them, particularly in the House. Now, that manifested in the Tea Party. It may not be manifesting in some similar version for Democrats now, but the enthusiasm and the frustration with the people in power is similar. Yeah. Look, Donald Trump has extremely high approval among Republicans. In other words, he has a very, very strong hold on his base. However, he is also really a big motivator for the Democrats. I mean, so it cuts both ways. He's revved up his base. He has not expanded it, but he's also really energized the Democrats to vote against him. And there are a number of policies of his that are going to start really coming to fruition and, I guess, ripening over the next several months. We're talking about the tariffs and what that might do to the economy. His policy on abortions, we'll start to see that kind of come into fruition over the next couple of months. There's all kinds of other things. People are going to start paying quarterly tax bills

and they're going to see what they actually owe the government after that tax bill. I mean, there's a lot of stuff. And then there are all sorts of wild cards. Red state teacher strikes, which I think helped Democrats. The enthusiasm and this big registration drive among high school students and college students because of the gun violence in high schools. You see big registration drive among high school students and college students because of the

gun violence in high schools. You see big registration drives. On the margins, that might affect certain races. All right. So this was the biggest primary day of the year. We're now through a big chunk of primaries, but that does not mean we are done yet. The next round is next Tuesday, and Virginia is one of the states voting next week. That is certainly a state we've been keeping tabs on over the last couple of years with their off-year elections. We'll be talking about Virginia next week. We'll be back in your feed tomorrow with our weekly roundup. I'm Scott Tetreault. I cover Congress. I'm Kelsey Snell. I also cover Congress.

And I'm Mara Elias, a national political correspondent. Thank you for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast.